Saturday, November 16, 2019

ON TRACK FOR A RECESSION - NOVEMBER 2019?

There are continuing signs of a coming recession or of a major "slowdown" of the global economy.  The latest is American farmers are taking on record debt.*  This is on top of consumers taking on record debt.**  Needless to say that the American Federal government is also taking on record deficits stimulated by the latest tax increase using borrowed money.***
Over the next 10 years, annual federal deficits — when Congress spends more than it takes in through tax revenues — are expected to average $1.2 trillion, which would be 4.4 percent of gross domestic product. That's far higher than the 2.9 percent of GDP that has been the average for the past 50 years.

"Other than the period immediately after World War II, the only other time the average deficit has been so large over so many years was after the 2007–2009 recession," the CBO said last month.***

There are people worried about this.  Over 50percent of large investors expect a major market correction in 2020.****
Increasing numbers of people aged 18-to-34 are taking money out of their 401(k) accounts, which financial advisors warn against.****
Two-thirds of Americans don't feel better off.****

At the same time, business investment in plant and equipment is dropping.
(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/business-investment-drops-3percent-in-third-quarter-amid-trade-war-uncertainty.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/us-gdp-q3-2019-first-reading.html)

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/10/recession-coming.html
** https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-in-crisis-turn-to-high-interest-loans-as-banks-pull-back-11573381801
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/more-than-half-of-the-richest-investors-see-a-big-market-drop-in-2020.html
https://grow.acorns.com/how-to-avoid-dipping-into-your-401k
https://grow.acorns.com/how-to-feel-better-off-according-to-experts

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