Friday, November 30, 2012

POTPOURRI: MEDICAL EXPENSES, BENGHAZI, & INSULTING ISLAM

I wonder how many people who want to control medical costs have supported compulsory ultrasound before abortion.  I'm not sure just how many states have compulsory ultrasounds before abortion, but I have seen 8 referred to and 22 have some sort of ultrasound regulation with 11 more states having them on the docket (http://bangordailynews.com/2012/02/27/news/nation/more-states-moving-to-require-ultrasound-before-abortion/).  Usually the woman has to take two trips to the physician, one for the ultrasound and another for the abortion itself.  All this raises the costs of care, of course.

Now it seems to be coming clear that the opposition to Susan Rice becoming Secretary of State by John McCain is that she had some harsh things to say about him in the 2008 presidential battle.  Lindsay Graham's opposition seems to be related to the Democrats opposition to John R. Bolton's nomination as Ambassador to the United Nations by George W. Bush in 1980 (but he was appointed as a recess appointment).  So it seems the opposition to Susan Rice really has little to do with her statements that the Benghazi, Libya, disaster  in which a U.S. Ambassador was killed was a spontaneous demonstration that escalated.  The usual question being asked is why wasn't more protection provided to the Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.  Of course protection to Embassys is supposed to be provided by the home country, which proved inadequate in this case.  But since so much effort is placed on Benghazi (Libya's second largest city), there are a couple of questions that seem relevant.  Why wasn't the Consulate closed?  After all there had been a previous attack on the Consulate with a hole blown through the protection wall, and the Brits had closed their operation there because of all the unrest in the area.  The second question of interest is why did our ambassador go there in the first place?  Don't know that we will ever hear the answer to these questions.

We seem to think it is important that the Benghazi incident had nothing to do with the insulting movie trailer that was critical of Muhammad.  The attack on the consulate may have been planned as a 9/11 al Qaeda commemorative event, but the movie trailer probably added something to it as demonstrations were done throughout the Muslim world (Egypt,Iran, Israel, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen, and Palestinian) particularly after the Friday prayers.  If we think, however, that when we do or say things that are insulting to the Islamic religion, it does not incite a hot head group to physical violence, then there is no hope of our reconciliation with Muslims.  In addition it also increases the anti-American attitude among a large group of Muslims who are more peaceful.  Now it is known that an Egyptian court has put a death sentence, in absentia, on seven Egyptians thought to be involved with the movie trailer should they return to Egypt (http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/28/world/meast/egypt-anti-islam-film/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_world+(RSS%3A+World)).  Of course there have been many other incidents in the past such as our burning of Qur'ans in Afghanistan in which four of our soldiers were killed.

SHOES: LOST & FOUND (Biographical)

When I was a small boy, I used to take off my shoes in the house and leave them laying about here and there.  Because I never remembered where I took off the shoes, I had difficulty finding them. I even had nightmares about being late for school because I couldn't find my shoes.  Leaving the shoes around irritated my father so, to teach me a lesson, he would throw the shoes down the basement steps to be with the spiders and mice.   Little did he know that he was doing me a favor because I knew the first place to look for the shoes and I wasn't worried abut the spiders and never saw a mouse.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

HOSTESS BRANDS COVERUP

What I want to know is what did Mitt Romney know about the Hostess Brands rape by Vulture Capitalists (Ahh, private equity) and when did he know it?  Did he keep it suppressed until after the election to prevent a rout in the presidential election because he was a prior private equity executive?  Are their workers part of the hated 47% who pay no income taxes?  Where is Senator McCain when we need him?

It was because of Wonder bread that induced the saying, "The greatest thing since sliced bread." was introduced and was loved for sandwiches because it had no holes and didn't dry out quickly.  Hostess cupcakes were heavily advertised in my youth.  And then there are the beloved Twinkies, more than anything.

Take away my Social Security, but don't touch my wonder Bread, Hostess cupcakes, and Twinkies.  Wait, I don't get Social Security.  All the better.  Take it away.  That will teach the hated 47%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostess_Brands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonder_Bread
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twinkie
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostess_CupCake

Sunday, November 18, 2012

MITT ROMNEY

My heart goes out to Mitt Romney.  The effort he put in , in his failed run for the presidency, was incredible.  He went through a brutal primary campaign in which he felt compelled to flip flop on socially radical stands (e.g. on abortion, global warming, and other issues), then he had to shift gears and flip flop again in which to woo "ordinary" voters in the Presidential election.  I think what he was saying was, "Just elect me as President and I'll fix it."

Romney was a good student in law school and outstanding in simultaneously pursuing an MBA, saved the Winter Olympics (and gave his salary to charity),  and got passed an incredible health plan as Governor of Massachusetts (Where he refused the salary.).  He gave away his inheritance to BYU for the George W. Romney School of Business Management.  He did an outstanding job in his missionary work to France.  He tithed to the Mormon Church in which he also became an official, and was very successful at making money in business.  Early in his tenure at Bain Capital he started out in venture capital (i.e., creating startups) and was very successful at that, even creating quite a few jobs, but switched to private equity where making money was easier.  The guy had seemingly never failed at anything in his life until he was defeated at the age of 47 by popular Senator Ted Kennedy in a Senate bid, but he was undeterred in pursuing a political career.  It is worth noting that, though very wealthy, he gave up his pursuit of money to enter politics.  In doing so he never came close to such financial leaders as Bill Gates and the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet.  In fact he has never even entered the top 100 fortunes, so far.

It became clear, however, that Romney's background made him out of touch with the populace and led to such gaffs as his talk to supporters about he wouldn't get the votes of the "dependent" 47% who don't pay income taxes,* insulting many workers who vote Republican.  After he was defeated for President, he has given another talk to supporters claiming that he lost because of extreme gifts given by Democrats to the less well off.*  He obviously is not introspective.  He not only promised to return $713 billion to Medicare that he wrongly claimed was taken from benefits, but he overlooked all the income tax gifts given to the wealthy by the government (e.g. 15% income tax rate on qualified dividends, 15% on long-term capital gains, low taxes on "carried interest," no income taxes on Municipal bonds, among other more complex gifts) that permit him to pay less than a 15% income tax rate in many years rather than the 35% he would have paid without loop holes.  He even promised to extend tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans.

Also see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney; http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/republican-presidential-candidates-for.html; and http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/12/tthe-republican-primaries.html

* http://www.marketplace.org/topics/elections/campaign-trail/numbers-behind-mitt-romneys-47-comment; http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-mitt-romney-obama-gifts-20121115,0,2129448.story

Saturday, November 17, 2012

I ALREADY MISS THE GOOD OLD DAYS

I already miss those good old days, not that long ago actually, when all we had to worry about was important things, people like Paula Broadwell, Jill Kelley, a couple of middle aged 4-star generals and a topless FBI agent (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/11/laffaire-petraeus-today.html).  Don't you?

Now it is ugly as an "over-the-hill" Senator, who once was a rational force in the Senate but now is after one last hurrah, pursues something known as Benghazi that everyone has lost interest in except for him and a few of his colleagues.  You know, that violent demonstration/terrorist attack in which an ambassador was killed along with three of his "troops" in some backwater consulate in Lybia where violent acts in the vicinity are almost an every day occurrence (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/09/you-can-rationalize-anything.html).  Senator Feinstein has commented, "My biggest concern is, there are literally hundreds of threat warnings in the material that has been accumulated," Feinstein said. "There were five attacks during the year, one prior attack on the consulate itself. The question I have is ... why wasn't something done about it?"  But this doesn't seem to be the serious question which our dear "over-the-hill" Senator says is why did our ambassador to the U./N. - Susan Rice - say, five days after the event, that the violence was a demonstration that got out of hand?

Personally, I never thought this issue could last until the late-elections, but some - including the news media - want to keep it going and are demanding a "Whitewater" type investigation.  And apparently Susan Rice was only parroting the declassified information on the topic.  This misinformation, if it matters, was seemingly done because the FBI or someone thought they were hot on the trail of the organizing perpetrators and didn't want them to know.  Instead what they did was what is known as "hanging Susan Rice out to dry."

So far as I am concerned, if the American Benghazi Consulate attack was the best Al Qaeda could do to "celebrate" 9/11, they are weak indeed, hardly even a shadow of the real 9/11.  It was even far away from the embassy in Tripoli.  Somehow, forgotten in all this is that an estimated 30,000 Libyans demonstrated against the attack and the militias involved in the attack (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/11/laffaire-petraeus-today.html).

The fuss being made over Benghazi is interesting when one considers that the diefied Ronald Reagan had BOTH a couple of embassy attacks, including the big one in Beirut, Lebanon, where 17 Americans died (among 63 total) on April 18, 1983 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_United_States_embassy_bombing) plus another in Kuwait where five people were killed on December 12, 1983 (which by-the-way Reagan refused to call an act of terror) (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/19/1147106/-Breaking-Ronald-Reagan-refuses-to-call-embassy-attack-an-act-of-terror) AND the marine barracks attack where 241 of our troops died on October 23, 1983.  For good measure there was the Korean airliner 007 shot down by the Soviets September 1, 1983 where 269 passengers were killed including a U.S. congressman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007).  Somehow Reagan's admirers forgave him for all of this.  Furthermore, Democrats did not make political hay out of any of this.  But today, everything seems to be on the table for political gain.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

L'AFFAIRE PETRAEUS -- TODAY

The central character of this Greek Tragedy (or is it a comedy?), a voyeur's dream, is the 60 yr old, highly  regarded ret. 4 star General Petraeus, now-resigned director of the CIA.  He is arguably the most highly regarded General since Eisenhower, though consideration should also be given to ret. General Powell.  Then there is Gen. Petraeus's pretty  40 yr old married late(?)-mistress Paula Broadwell, mother of two, who did a  dissertation on Gen. Petraeus and became his biographer.  He met her in 2006 and began running with her in 2008.  Let's see, another principal character is the married, foreign-born, 37-yr-old Lebanese-American beauty Jill Kelley, mother of three, who hosts parties for the military in the Tampa.  Until today, the final character is an FBI agent who sent bare chested pictures of himself to Jill Kelley and will be referred to as just "topless."  An addition to this play on November 12th, is 59-yr-old 4 star Gen. John Allen who succeeded Gen Petraeus as commander in Afghanistan.  This morning, it was announced that an investigation of around 30,000 (!) pages of e-mails between Gen Allen and Mrs. Kelley over a two year period (more than 40 pages a DAY!).

OK, let's see what we seem to know now (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/petraeus-broadwell-diary-affair-article-1.1200840).  June 30, 2010 - The Senate confirms Petraeus as the new commander for war in Afghanistan. Over the next year, Broadwell expands her research of Petraeus into an authorized biography. She makes multiple trips to Afghanistan and is given unprecedented access to Petraeus and his commanders. 
...............................................................................

The article goes on to say that "Officially" the affair between Broadwell and Petraeus begins during November , 2011 (according to ret. Col. Steve Boylan), a couple months after he was appointed director of the CIA (another account says it was August).  Ah huh.  The affair is said to have been terminated about four months ago.

In May of 2012, Jill Kelley says she started receiving "threatening" e-mails and appeals to Topless to investigate, which he did.  (I wonder what he expected to get for doing all this for her?)  This morning On Morning Joe, it appears two of the "threatening" e-mails say something like "Does your husband know what you are doing" and "I saw you making inappropriate touching of (Petraeus) under the table."  So we have a little jealousy here but hardly threatening.  It appears that when Kelley found out how invasive of her privacy the investigation would be, she tried to stop it, but once this ball started rolling down hill, it couldn't be stopped.  Incidentally, Mrs. Kelley has license plates on her car that say "Honorary Council," which she feels should give her special privileges.  Me thinks there is a bit of a big head here.

Now there are pictures of boxes of materials being taken from Broadwell's home.  It seems that (presumably declassified) Top Secret materials are in Broadwell's possession so this drama has not yet played out.

Please remember that we are not dealing with impressionable young girls smitten by fancy uniforms of 20 something yr-old soldiers, but two mature married women and mothers in their mid to late 30s involved with two married Generals, perhaps suffering from male menopause, old enough to be their fathers.

I would like to add as a general comment that I believe that military life is very hard on marriages with one spouse (usually but not always men) being away from home for very long periods of time.  I suspect that affairs are actually very common though they are against the Code Of Military Justice.  In the 1970s, there was a study that concluded that 80% of  husbands have had an affair.  I recall at work five of us tired-looking researchers at a lunch table, and I said "Four of us at this table have had an affair, and I know it is not me."  Hard to believe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Petraeus
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/scandal-disrupts-petraeus-mistress-birthday-getaway-article-1.1200956
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57548827/who-is-jill-kelley/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_R._Allen



November 14-15, 2012:   Paula Broadwell has considerable classified information on her computer that is inadequately protected.  She is a reserve officer in intelligence.  Her security classification has been revoked. (https://www.cnbc.com/id/49833869) Jill Kelley's pass to the military base near Tampa has been revoked (http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/49830265/#49830265)  Topless's name is Frederick W. Humphries II (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/15/petraeus-affair-instigator-fbi-named)

Monday, November 12, 2012

INCREASING INCOME TAXES ON THE WEALTHY

In light of the election, we are hearing some different thoughts from some conservatives.  Perhaps the most interesting is from Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard (https://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/13af5f57502c4dbf):

“I don’t really understand why Republicans don’t take Obama’s offer to freeze taxes for everyone below $250,000,” he said. “Make it a million? Really? The Republican Party is going to fall on its sword to defend a bunch of millionaires, half of whom voted Democratic and half of whom live in Hollywood and are hostile.”

And he is quite correct.  Seven of the top 10 richest members of congress are Democrats and Nancy Pelosi is #12.  So they are doing it to themselves  I like to say that these are the wealthy with a conscience.  The truth is, however, that most wealthy people take advantage of tax loopholes (Mitt Romney being just one example) so raising the top income tax level will not hurt them.

Besides, there is the implication put out that if the income tax level is raised to 39.6% it will be on their entire income, whereas it actually is just on the sum ABOVE $250,000.  Thus if you made $300,000, the 39.6% will be just on the $50,000 above $250,000 for an increase of just $2,480 over the 35% rate.

SOME THOUGHTS ON THE RECENT ELECTIONS

First of all, I am thankful that we had two such fine families running for president.

Then I regret that the American electorate demands such negative campaigning.  Unfortunately if one side does it, the other must also.  The electorate says they don't like it, but they do pay attention to it.  In this regard, the Democrats seemed to be more effective in their negative campaigning than the Republicans.

After all the money spent by outside groups such as Super PACS in the campaign, we ended up having the same Democratic president, an increase in Democratic Senators by two (but not enough to break filibusters) and  an increase of Democratic Representatives by seven (but not enough to take over the House).  The electorate seems to say to our politicians "Make it work!"

Mitch McConnell's first priority of defeating the President didn't work.  Will we face another four years of total obstruction?

Somehow Republicans are going to have to learn how to love Hispanics and quit kicking them in the teeth.  It is going to be very hard for them, but Hispanics tend to be conservative and can be a natural component of a conservative movement.

There are no precedents in our politics anymore.  It used to be that politics was said to stop at the borders, but no longer. The immediate politicalization of the Benghazi attack on September 11 shows that.  I really thought that Benghazi couldn't be made to last until the election proved to be unfounded as the media was more than willing to keep this issue going.  Ronald Reagan suffered both the Lebanese Embassy bombing* in 1983 in which  63 people died was never politicized by the Democrats nor was the Beirut (Lebanon) base bombing in which 299 American and French forces were killed.*  These two disasters have not stopped Ronald Reagan from becoming deified by many Republicans, no doubt by some of those who want to keep the Benghazi issue alive even after the election.

Romney's demonizaton of the 47% who pay no Federal income tax as being lazy dependents may be unfortunate but is a widely held view of many Republicans.  I know this both from Republicans I know and from boards on Motley Fool.  But it also does insult many of the white working class people who vote Republican.  Please remember that 47% of the Households earn less than $47,000/yr which undoubtedly includes many of white workers.  One cause of this lack of Federal income tax payments is the child tax credit where there is a $1000 per child deduction from their taxes, and this deduction was raised under the Bush-43 administration from $500/child to $1,000/child.**

The Romney claim that he knows how to generate jobs is both right and wrong.  Private equity, at least in the short term, eliminates jobs and does not create them.  That is the first thing they do, fire people.  Labor is the elastic component of our system.  However in the beginning of Bain Capital, they emphasized Start Ups which do create new jobs.  Romney switched to private equity because it was a quicker way to make money and that is what Bain Capital is all about.  There is nothing wrong with that.  Whether in the long term private equity creates jobs, I don't know , but suspect that it doesn't.

But weren't start ups what Obama was doing in promoting alternative energy?  In spite of the Solyndra failure, the amount of losses in the Federal government Start Ups program is small.  Even Solyndra, however, served a good purpose because the Solyndra system didn't use the special glass used to solar energy.  Their approach caused the price of the special glass to plummet to make Solyndra uneconomic.  I have not seen any article examining whether the price of glass plummeting has saved more money in solar energy panels than the losses on Solyndra, but over time it might.  Personally I wish the government would have taken Solyndra to production before closing it down.  If you are going to be involved in start ups, there are going to be failures and the emphasis needs to be on the net.

There is a point in saying that the Federal government shouldn't be choosing winners and losers of course; however, the government does this sort of thing all the time.  Think how important the government emphasis by NASA and the DoD on miniaturization of electronics has been not only to producing inexpensive desk top computers but now the tablets and smart phones.  Consider the World Wide Web (WWW) and Geographic Positions Systems (GPS) for just two.  These were developed for military purposes.  The important thing was really permitting these two innovations to be released into the public sector where private industry could promote them for Civilian uses.

*  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_United_States_embassy_bombing; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Beirut_barracks_bombing

** http://www.irs.gov/uac/Ten-Facts-about-the-Child-Tax-Credit

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

COMEBACK KID COMES BACK -- AGAIN!

Well!  So Obama came back to be reelected after all.  He has fooled me several times (an example is getting Obamacare), and here I had suggested he might be the best one-term president ever (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/08/best-one-term-president-ever.html).  I did, however, protect myself a bit in writing " Therefore I feel that President Obama probably will be a one-term president no matter his other outstanding accomplishments; however, we have learned that it is dangerous to count out The Comeback Kid."  And so he did.  There is concern that Obama has not outlined a visionary agenda for his second term, but there is much to his first term that still need to be consummated.  A good example is that the Dodd-Frank bill is still being assimilated with maybe two-thirds of the regulations still to be decided.   Obamacare is not yet fully implemented.  And then there is the Dream Act still to be consummated  as well as the infrastructure legislation among others.  Also the "fiscal cliff" seems to need to be dealt with.

Will Republicans be more flexible in doing the nations' business?  Mitch McConnell's stated primary goal of defeating President Obama's reelection didn't work out so well.  Will Republican's somehow grow to love Hispanic Americans?  Oh sure, they do have a few Republican Hispanic governors,  Senators and Representative, but, after all, Obama did get 71% of the Hispanic vote.  Are Republican's happy that they kept Elizabeth Warren from being head of the Consumer Protection Agency only to have her take away a Senate seat from them?

So it has happened again.   As I type this, the stock exchanges are down big time although in 80% of the Democratic Presidencies, the S&P500 has been up and the DJIA almost as much.

It will interesting to follow.  But it sure appears that Obamamcare is protected.

Monday, November 5, 2012

GASOLINE PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL: NOVEMBER 2012

Gasoline prices continue to fall as predicted just a couple days ago (Gasoline Prices Are Falling: November 3, 2012)http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/11/gasoline-prices-are-falling-november.html).

From Gas Prices Tumble at Quickest Rate  in 4 Years: Survey (https://www.cnbc.com/id/49692132):

 "Gasoline prices averaged $3.5454 per gallon on November 2, down 20.75 cents from October 19 when drivers were paying $3.7529 at the pump, Lundberg said."
..........................................................

"Another reason for the total U.S. price decline in the latest survey is California, the biggest state consumer, where pump prices fell 49 cents in past two weeks after an extreme price increase a month ago because of refinery problems.

The November 2 survey shows that gas prices have fallen a total of 29.21 cents in the last month, Lundberg said.

The highest prices for regular gasoline recorded in the November 2 survey were in San Francisco at $4.05 a gallon, while drivers in Memphis, Tennessee were paying the least at $3.11 per gallon."

The station closest to our home in Seven Lakes, NC, is advertising $3.51/gal, a bit lower than the national average and $0.39/gal from its peak this year.

Saturday, November 3, 2012

HOV 3 QUESTION?

Many people today believe that life starts at conception and that a fertilized woman's egg is a "personhood."  The mayor has declared that people driving into Manhattan have to obey a High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) 3 rule, i.e. three people in the vehicle.  SO if a woman declares she is carrying a personhood, does that account for two of the three?  What if she says it is twins?

GASOLINE PRICES ARE FALLING: NOVEMBER 2012

In spite of hurricane Sandy, gasoline price in the U.S. are falling (http://www.cnbc.com/id/49659811):
"AAA expects that gas prices across the country will continue to drop through the end of the year, assuming a smooth restart to production following Hurricane Sandy. AAA predicts the national average price of gas could fall to $3.40 a gallon by Election Day and between $3.25 and $3.40 a gallon by Thanksgiving. Gas prices could drop by 40 cents a gallon between now and the end of the year, says AAA spokesperson Avery Ash."

The national average is said to be $3.496/gal.  California is something else again and the lowest prices quoted by gasbuddy.com for Los Angeles is $3.96/gal and for San Francisco is $3.76/gal, but $3.65/gal in San Diego.  Perhaps it is no wonder that the Toyota Prius is the most popular car in California.

Where we are near Pinehurst, NC, the golf capital, the lowest gasoline price for regular I have seen as of yesterday is $3.58/gal whereas near our home it is $3.65/gal, but the latter is still 25 cents/gal lower than the peak this year.  The big cities in the state have even lower prices, however, with gasbuddy,com quoting prices as low as $3.18/gal in Raleigh and $3.17/gal in Charlotte.