I have been trying to figure out Rep. Devin Nunes for a long time. I concluded that he was after some position in the Trump White House, most probably Secretary of Agriculture. But, like Trump, Nunies seems to have some association with Russia. I hope he is not a Russian agent,* but he is at least a Russian asset, either wittingly or unwittingly.
I am hardly alone in this supposition. This morning on Morning Joe, John Heilman made the same statement that Devin Nunes was acting like a Russian agent.** Vladimir Putin must be laughing his head off.
The idea, however, that Nunes is a Russian agent instead of asset seems to be overblown. It owes to Nunes being an investor in a winery that sold 22 cases of wine to a Russian distributor in 2013. The size of Nunes's investment is rather small and ties to Russia are obscure as analyzed by Snopes.*
I am shocked by how much the U.S. Congress has turned pro-Russia so fast. We really need to have a Democratic Congress elected in the fall because I doubt that President Trump will ever be be considered for impreachment by a Republican Congress. Even in the case of Nixon, most Republicans were against impeachment even after all the information came out.***
But if a Democratic President ever did something like withold sanctions against Russia, like Trump is doing,*** he probably would be impeached the next day in a Republican Congress. I believe with Nixon, his "impoundment of funds" in 1971**** was maybe more important than the Watergate Breakin.
* https://www.snopes.com/devin-nunes-wine-russia/
** https://www.thedailybeast.com/msnbc-analyst-john-heilemann-suggests-devin-nunes-compromised-by-russia
*** https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/even-the-biggest-scandals-cant-kill-party-loyalty/
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/29/us/politics/trump-russia-sanctions.html
**** https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2015/10/richard-nixon-congressional-budget-control-act-history-000282
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Sunday, January 28, 2018
DEBT OF COUNTRIES
The WSJ has published an article (December 29, 2017) by Josh Zumbrun on the National Debt of the U.S. compared to other large countries:
As of 2017, the general government gross debt of the U.S. stood at 108.1% of gross domestic product, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. Only four large countries have more debt for the size of their economies.*
(Click on figure to enlarge)
I recall reading a report some years ago (repeated in this article) that having a large debt can be handled if the borrowing is done from within the country.* Because Japan borrows almost entirely from inside their country, their huge debt has allowed them to continue without a national bankrupcy and to keep rates low. Greece, however, had more outsdie borrowing and got into bad trouble.A big problem in the Third World is tha they have to borrow from foreigners, and that's when you can get into trouble.
The next three countries are Greece, Italy and Spain.
All three nations are part of the eurozone, which like the Bank of Japan has kept rates low and engaged in large stimulus programs. But unlike Japan, the three highest-debt European nations do not directly control their own currency.**
.............................................................................
But the country with the next-largest debt burden isn’t Spain, but rather the U.S. Spain’s debt-to-GDP climbed above 100% in 2014, but has since slowly dipped to 98.7%, about 10 percentage points lower than the U.S.**
..............................................................................
That’s why the new tax bill is something of a gamble. Estimates differ on how much economic growth the legislation will generate, and thus the ultimate cost is unclear. But even estimates that use the preferred Republican methodology, and expect the new tax code to significantly boost economic growth, still estimate the legislation will grow the debt by an additional half trillion dollars.**
Another analysis is provided by The Economist (June 3, 2015) that rates how far conuntries are from their debt being dangerous.*** The safest countries, in decreasing order arre: Norway, south Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Luxemburg, Autralia, Taiwan, Switzerland the U.S. comes in 14th but still in the safe zone.
* Thomas Piketty, 2013, Capital In The 21st Century (http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/Piketty2014Contents.pdf)
** https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/12/29/just-four-large-countries-have-a-higher-debt-burden-than-the-u-s/?mod=djemRTE_h
*** https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/06/public-debt
As of 2017, the general government gross debt of the U.S. stood at 108.1% of gross domestic product, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund. Only four large countries have more debt for the size of their economies.*
I recall reading a report some years ago (repeated in this article) that having a large debt can be handled if the borrowing is done from within the country.* Because Japan borrows almost entirely from inside their country, their huge debt has allowed them to continue without a national bankrupcy and to keep rates low. Greece, however, had more outsdie borrowing and got into bad trouble.A big problem in the Third World is tha they have to borrow from foreigners, and that's when you can get into trouble.
The next three countries are Greece, Italy and Spain.
All three nations are part of the eurozone, which like the Bank of Japan has kept rates low and engaged in large stimulus programs. But unlike Japan, the three highest-debt European nations do not directly control their own currency.**
.............................................................................
But the country with the next-largest debt burden isn’t Spain, but rather the U.S. Spain’s debt-to-GDP climbed above 100% in 2014, but has since slowly dipped to 98.7%, about 10 percentage points lower than the U.S.**
..............................................................................
That’s why the new tax bill is something of a gamble. Estimates differ on how much economic growth the legislation will generate, and thus the ultimate cost is unclear. But even estimates that use the preferred Republican methodology, and expect the new tax code to significantly boost economic growth, still estimate the legislation will grow the debt by an additional half trillion dollars.**
Another analysis is provided by The Economist (June 3, 2015) that rates how far conuntries are from their debt being dangerous.*** The safest countries, in decreasing order arre: Norway, south Korea, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Luxemburg, Autralia, Taiwan, Switzerland the U.S. comes in 14th but still in the safe zone.
* Thomas Piketty, 2013, Capital In The 21st Century (http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/Piketty2014Contents.pdf)
** https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/12/29/just-four-large-countries-have-a-higher-debt-burden-than-the-u-s/?mod=djemRTE_h
*** https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/06/public-debt
Friday, January 26, 2018
SOLAR ENERGY TARIFF - 2018
One of the fastest growing areas of employment has been in the solar energy industry. President Trump has now put a large tariff on imported solar panels that may crimp the solar industry.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/trumps-solar-tariffs-could-slow-down-rapid-renewable-job-growth.html
In its decision on Monday, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said China used a series of "state incentives, subsidies, and tariffs to dominate the global supply chain" and carve out a leading role in solar cell and module manufacturing.*
The Obama administration twice placed tariffs on solar imports from China, but Chinese companies skirted the penalties by moving production to neighboring countries. The Trump administration's tariffs close that loophole by applying tariffs to all solar cell and module imports.*
The tariffs the Trump administration adopted — 30 percent in the first year that the penalty is applied — adds 10-15 cents to imported cells, according to MJ Shiao, head of Americas Research at GTM Research, a green tech analysis firm.*
A 10-cents-per-watt tariff could reduce construction of large, utility-scale solar farms by 9 percent, GTM estimates.*
The tariff drops by 5 percentage points each year, ending at 15 percent. The tariffs kick in after 2.5 gigawatts of solar cells have been imported** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/trumps-solar-tariffs-could-slow-down-rapid-renewable-job-growth.html
Wednesday, January 24, 2018
2018: THE LOST FISCAL YEAR
So we enter the 4th short-term Federal funding period, this time only 3 wks. You really can't operate much this way. Few contracts can be accomplished in a month, much less 3 wks. These monthly funding periods disrupt all contracting, for example. Contracts are now building up increasingly overloading those individuals taking care of them. It probably is too late for many large contracts to be accomplished this fiscal year. In funding by continuing resolution (CR) most money won't carry over to the next fiscal year further exacerbating inefficiency.
Operating on CRs even for a year at a time is debilitating because your funding is held at the previous year's level and wages continue to climb (e.g. step increases within grade) taking away operating money. So to get operating funds you have to let people go, usually temps, but operating under CRs has now gone on for 3 yrs so I guess the temps are all gone.
While it is nice that the children's health program is renewed for 6 yrs, there is much yet to be funded, including in the military.
Years' ago now, the Federal fiscal year was changed from July 1 to October 1 to give Congress more time to appropriate programs. Because Congress only passes things at the last minute, the change hasn't been effective.
I am glad I am retired and no longer in the Federal government system. You are just a political football.
Operating on CRs even for a year at a time is debilitating because your funding is held at the previous year's level and wages continue to climb (e.g. step increases within grade) taking away operating money. So to get operating funds you have to let people go, usually temps, but operating under CRs has now gone on for 3 yrs so I guess the temps are all gone.
While it is nice that the children's health program is renewed for 6 yrs, there is much yet to be funded, including in the military.
Years' ago now, the Federal fiscal year was changed from July 1 to October 1 to give Congress more time to appropriate programs. Because Congress only passes things at the last minute, the change hasn't been effective.
I am glad I am retired and no longer in the Federal government system. You are just a political football.
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
STATES MOST AFFECTED BY A FEDERAL SHUTDOWN
Some states are more affected by a Federal government shutdown. For this 19th shut down:
Overall, WalletHub found that red states and blue states would be similarly impacted but that red states would be hit harder. The average score for a state that voted majority republican during the 2016 presidential election was 28.17, and the average score for state[s] that voted majority democrat was 22.90. The lower the score the better.
In order of most impacted first, the 10 states are District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, Alaska, Hawaii, and New Mexico, Montana, Oklahoma, California, Alabama.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/22/the-10-states-that-will-be-most-affected-by-the-government-shutdown.html
Overall, WalletHub found that red states and blue states would be similarly impacted but that red states would be hit harder. The average score for a state that voted majority republican during the 2016 presidential election was 28.17, and the average score for state[s] that voted majority democrat was 22.90. The lower the score the better.
In order of most impacted first, the 10 states are District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, Alaska, Hawaii, and New Mexico, Montana, Oklahoma, California, Alabama.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/22/the-10-states-that-will-be-most-affected-by-the-government-shutdown.html
Saturday, January 20, 2018
HAPPY FIRST ANNIVERSARY TO ME! ...
Happy First Anniversary to Me!, Happy First Anniversary, Happy First Anniversary to Me!.
Congratulations, President Trump on your first anniversary of being President. I confess I thought you would never make it, but I did not expect the humbleness of Republicans in Congress. I guess that humbleness comes because you remain so popular with Republicans (more than 70% approve of you though it used to be more than 80%) even though voters as a whole are less complimentary.
I find it rather surprising that you wanted a gift of a government shutdown to celebrate your first anniversary, but then last spring you said it would be nice to have a good government shutdown.* So congratulations on the gift you gave yourself of a government shutdown on your first anniversary as President. Everything you want all at once.
True it is hard on millions of people who will have checks delayed and small businesses (such as those in National Parks that will have no business). Will your house be foreclosed on because you can't make your mortgage payment on time? Oh well, you get the government you voted for. You did vote for this government, didn't you?
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-tells-confidants-that-a-government-shutdown-might-be-good-for-him/2017/11/30/e5328328-d5f5-11e7-a986-d0a9770d9a3e_story.html
Congratulations, President Trump on your first anniversary of being President. I confess I thought you would never make it, but I did not expect the humbleness of Republicans in Congress. I guess that humbleness comes because you remain so popular with Republicans (more than 70% approve of you though it used to be more than 80%) even though voters as a whole are less complimentary.
I find it rather surprising that you wanted a gift of a government shutdown to celebrate your first anniversary, but then last spring you said it would be nice to have a good government shutdown.* So congratulations on the gift you gave yourself of a government shutdown on your first anniversary as President. Everything you want all at once.
True it is hard on millions of people who will have checks delayed and small businesses (such as those in National Parks that will have no business). Will your house be foreclosed on because you can't make your mortgage payment on time? Oh well, you get the government you voted for. You did vote for this government, didn't you?
* https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-tells-confidants-that-a-government-shutdown-might-be-good-for-him/2017/11/30/e5328328-d5f5-11e7-a986-d0a9770d9a3e_story.html
Friday, January 19, 2018
END OF FAMILY VALUES?
One of the ideals of conservatism has been family values. Now two of the lastest presidents having multiple "affairs", one even an affair while in office and one even during the campaign for office. Curiously, the sexual pecidillos of our president don't seem to bother conservatives, not even the religious right. It looks like family values as an issue is over.
In 1998, the professional moral scold William
Bennett published a book titled “The Death of
Outrage: Bill Clinton and the Assault on Amer-
ican Ideals.” In it, Bennett described blasé atti-
tudes toward presidential adultery as corro-
sive. Clinton’s promiscuity, he argued, impli-
cated his fitness for governing: “Chronic in-
discipline, compulsion, exploitation, the easy
betrayal of vows, all suggest something
wrong at a deep level — something habitual
and beyond control,” he wrote.*
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/15/opinion/president-porn-star-stephanie-clifford.html
In 1998, the professional moral scold William
Bennett published a book titled “The Death of
Outrage: Bill Clinton and the Assault on Amer-
ican Ideals.” In it, Bennett described blasé atti-
tudes toward presidential adultery as corro-
sive. Clinton’s promiscuity, he argued, impli-
cated his fitness for governing: “Chronic in-
discipline, compulsion, exploitation, the easy
betrayal of vows, all suggest something
wrong at a deep level — something habitual
and beyond control,” he wrote.*
I was reminded of Bennett’s words by David
Friend’s fascinating recent book, “The Naug-
hty Nineties: The Triumph of the American
Libido,” about the sexual scandals and cultur-
al upheavals of that decade. In retrospect, the
dynamics of the Clinton-era culture wars seem
blissfully simple, pitting a sexually libertarian
left against an aggressively prudish right. It is
a cosmic irony that, 20 years later, it is con-
servatives who’ve finally killed off the last re-
maining unspoken rules about presidential
sexual ethics.*
Friend’s fascinating recent book, “The Naug-
hty Nineties: The Triumph of the American
Libido,” about the sexual scandals and cultur-
al upheavals of that decade. In retrospect, the
dynamics of the Clinton-era culture wars seem
blissfully simple, pitting a sexually libertarian
left against an aggressively prudish right. It is
a cosmic irony that, 20 years later, it is con-
servatives who’ve finally killed off the last re-
maining unspoken rules about presidential
sexual ethics.*
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported
that, a month before the 2016 election, Donald
Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen arranged a
$130,000 payout to the porn star Stephanie
Clifford, known by the stage name Stormy
Daniels, to stop her from discussing a 2006
dalliance with Trump. The New York Times
added new details. The Daily Beast then re-
ported that another porn actress, Jessica
Drake, who had accused Trump of offering
her $10,000 for sex, signed a nondisclosure
agreement barring her from talking about
the president.*
that, a month before the 2016 election, Donald
Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen arranged a
$130,000 payout to the porn star Stephanie
Clifford, known by the stage name Stormy
Daniels, to stop her from discussing a 2006
dalliance with Trump. The New York Times
added new details. The Daily Beast then re-
ported that another porn actress, Jessica
Drake, who had accused Trump of offering
her $10,000 for sex, signed a nondisclosure
agreement barring her from talking about
the president.*
In any other administration, evidence that
the president paid hush money to the star of
“Good Will Humping” during the election
would be a scandal. In this one it has, so
far, elicited a collective shrug.*
the president paid hush money to the star of
“Good Will Humping” during the election
would be a scandal. In this one it has, so
far, elicited a collective shrug.*
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/15/opinion/president-porn-star-stephanie-clifford.html
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
HOLE IN THE OUTHOUSE
President Trump apparently called Haiti and African countries "S@@thole Countries. Remarkably a couple of Senators say they don't remember him saying that. The White House finally decided he didn't say that, he said s@@thouse countries as if that would make Haiti and African countries feel better. Then to top things off the blond Secretary of Homeland Security says she doesn't remember the president say that but that a Senator said that to which the interrogator replied that the Senator was just repeating what the president said and telling him it was not appropriate. Are these guys for real?
For good measure, the Blond Secretary said she didn't know that Norway was almost entirely a white-person country.* Now her name is Kirstjen Michele Nielsen (45) that is about as Scandinavian as you can get. For her to say she didn't know that Norway was predominately white just perpetuates the dumb blond stereotype."
Kirstjen Nielsen grew up in Clearwater, FL. Curiously, there seems to be no word about her parents for some reason. I have not made a paid search, but even her Wikipedia item starts with her colleges (Georgetown and Virginia) after mention of where she grew up and her birthday. Apparently she isn't married or have a live-in. Her early life seems to be a secret, but maybe we will learn someday more about the mysterious woman.
That Trump will use vulgar language about counties should come as no surprise:
* https://thinkprogress.org/kirstjen-nielsen-norway-white-trump-racist-comment-1c8673b23c0b/
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/trumps-racial-provocations-helped-to-vault-him-to-the-white-house.html
*** https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-ambassador-to-panama-resigns-says-cannot-serve-trump/ar-AAuBpNe
For good measure, the Blond Secretary said she didn't know that Norway was almost entirely a white-person country.* Now her name is Kirstjen Michele Nielsen (45) that is about as Scandinavian as you can get. For her to say she didn't know that Norway was predominately white just perpetuates the dumb blond stereotype."
Kirstjen Nielsen grew up in Clearwater, FL. Curiously, there seems to be no word about her parents for some reason. I have not made a paid search, but even her Wikipedia item starts with her colleges (Georgetown and Virginia) after mention of where she grew up and her birthday. Apparently she isn't married or have a live-in. Her early life seems to be a secret, but maybe we will learn someday more about the mysterious woman.
That Trump will use vulgar language about counties should come as no surprise:
But the political foundation of Donald Trump's presidency was racial grievance.
Trump has repeatedly appealed to unhappy whites with his denunciation of Mexican immigrants, his defense of white supremacist protesters, and his attacks on black athletes protesting for racial justice.**
.................................................................................
Emily Ekins, director of polling at the libertarian Cato Institute, identified five groups of Trump voters as part of a broader Democracy Fund study of the 2016 election. Key to his emergence, she concluded, was the 20 percent segment she called "preservationists," who stood out for their "nativist and ethno-cultural conception of American identity."
.........................................................................................
She characterized them as having low levels of education, income and political information, watching lots of television, and offering strong professions of Christian faith combined with infrequent church attendance. With many of them disabled and on Medicaid, they display hostility toward Wall Street, support for redistribution of wealth, and concern about their government retirement benefits.
Their economic views help explain Trump's pledge not to touch Social Security and Medicare benefits. Their social views explain where they found kinship with him.
"They are far more likely to have a strong sense of their own racial identity," Ekins wrote. "They take the most restrictionist approach to immigration – staunchly opposing not just illegal but legal immigration as well, and intensely supporting a temporary Muslim travel ban.
"They feel the greatest amount of angst over race relations. They believe that anti-white discrimination is as pervasive as other forms of discrimination."
I am hardly a Trump supporter, but my own feeling is that it would have been better if the vulgar language used in this private meeting had been kept quiet. President Trump is hardly the only president to be vulgar in private. A better approach was made by the ambassador to Panama who has resigned because he can no longer abide by Trump's policies, some of which are hostile to Latin American issues.**** https://thinkprogress.org/kirstjen-nielsen-norway-white-trump-racist-comment-1c8673b23c0b/
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/trumps-racial-provocations-helped-to-vault-him-to-the-white-house.html
*** https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/u-s-ambassador-to-panama-resigns-says-cannot-serve-trump/ar-AAuBpNe
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
THE COMPANY GIVETH AND THE COMPANY TAKETH AWAY
So ATT gave $1,000 bonuses and raised their minimum wage to $15/hr. I'm happy for their employees; however, less attention was paid to ATT laying off more than 2,000 workers just before Christmas and into the new year.* Comcast also joined in and fired more than 500 workers just before Christmas.
Walmart also is giving bonuses to employees and raised their minimum wage to $11/hr from $9.hr If that doesn't sound like much, it will come to over $2,000 for a full-time employee (Walmart considers 32 hrs/wk to be full time). The bonuses depend on your length of service (20 yrs and more of service gets $1,000). Walmart also is to lay off thousands of workers from 63 Sam's Club locations.**
* http://www.newsweek.com/christmas-att-layoffs-midwest-bonuses-trump-758391
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/heres-a-map-of-where-walmart-is-closing-more-than-60-sams-club-stores.html
https://thinkprogress.org/walmart-bonus-layoffs-ed187882b011/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/01/11/walmart-to-raise-starting-hourly-wage-to-11-offer-paid-parental-leave/?utm_term=.b5b8d790e0a6
Walmart also is giving bonuses to employees and raised their minimum wage to $11/hr from $9.hr If that doesn't sound like much, it will come to over $2,000 for a full-time employee (Walmart considers 32 hrs/wk to be full time). The bonuses depend on your length of service (20 yrs and more of service gets $1,000). Walmart also is to lay off thousands of workers from 63 Sam's Club locations.**
* http://www.newsweek.com/christmas-att-layoffs-midwest-bonuses-trump-758391
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/heres-a-map-of-where-walmart-is-closing-more-than-60-sams-club-stores.html
https://thinkprogress.org/walmart-bonus-layoffs-ed187882b011/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/01/11/walmart-to-raise-starting-hourly-wage-to-11-offer-paid-parental-leave/?utm_term=.b5b8d790e0a6
Friday, January 12, 2018
ITEMS WITH THE MOST PAGE VIEWS AND MY FAVORITES - VII
Herein is my seventh annual summary of posts on my blog "Reunite Gondwanaland." As of the end of 2017, the blog had over 79,000 page views and contains more than 900 items of which more than 202 were published in 2017, compared to 172 in 2016. Since the origin of the blog in November of 2009, each year has seen more published items than the year before. It is gratifying that people are looking at the Table Of Contents that has recieved 4,580 page views.
The most populat item judged by page views for a 2017 piece goes to the little eight-line poem "Teenager" published on January 5th and is the only item to have received more than 600 page views at 623. All-time, however, goes to the short piece, "What Does this Mean?" with 748 page views published in September 2012. (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/09/what-does-this-mean.html). The post consists entirely of one rather long sentence," What can you say about a nation that opposes unions for teachers, firemen, and police, but supports the professional National Football League referee's union? Are our priorities straight?" It still gets a page view now and then.
Number 2 for 2017 is "Michael Flynn" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/michael-flynn.html) with 519 page views followed by Numbers 3 and 4 "Parallel Government" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/parallel-government.html) and "Pugnacious Politics" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/pugnacious-politics.html). The former had 505 pages views and the latter 501.
"Illegal Immigration" drew 491 page views as the 5th most viewed (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/illegal-immigration.html). Curiously, numbers 2 and 5 were published a day apart as were numbers 3 and 4. The same is true of #6 ans #7 " Conservative Ideals" (170) and "Trump's Humor" (166 also)
Additional pieces with fewer than 200 page views but more than 100:
"Mexico Earthquakes" drew spot number #8 with 158 page views.
Posts #9 and 10 each got 151 page views, a day apart, following the trend above, "New Malls," October 27th (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/conservative-ideals.html) and "Presidential Decorum" on October 26th (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/presidential-decorum.html).
Number 11 in popularity was "Paid Patriotism" with 146 page views (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/paid-patriotism.html ). The post on "Sheriff Joe" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/sheriff-joe.html) garnered 142 page views for 12th place, edging out "Rex Tillerson" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/rex-tillerson.html) garnered 141 page views for the 13th spot.
My peersonal favorites are somewhat different.
I consider "Corporate Tax Cuts: Unintended Consequences" to be one of my best publications, but it got only 71 page views(http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html).
It is right up there with" Effectiveness Of Taxes" posted way back in May of 2010 and is my personal favorite. While this piece ultimately has received 131 page views, which is nice, it hardly competes in favorability with many others published since.(http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html)
I repeat an analysis of the Great Depression from the 2016 report: "New in 2016 is a series of three posts examining the Great Recession Vs. The Great Depression (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-great-recession-vs-great-depression.html; http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/great-recession-versus-great-depression.html; and http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/great-recession-versus-great-depression_9.html) . Here I note how dangerous financial collapses are relative to recessions and the Great Recession involved a financial collapse somewhat like 1929. There is a dangerous hangover from financial collapses. After the 1929 financial collapse many people turned to Soviet-Style Communism, fortunately not enough to alter our political system. In the 2008-2009 financial collapse, people turned to Donald Trump, not truly a member of either political party (Democrats or the establishment Republicans)."* It is yet to be seen how this turns out.
Let me repeat two Honorable Mentions from the 2016 report*. I wouldn't say this is a favorite of mine, but it can be important to some, i.e. "Preferred Stock Investing" with 235 page views [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/11/preferred-stock-investing.html]. I have invested for about 60 years, but never got involved in preferred stocks until the last decade. I would also like to mention one additional poem, though it got only 19 page views "Upon the Second Anniversary Of Apollo 11," the first landing on the Moon [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/01/upon-second-anniversary-of-apollo-11.html]. Normally a couplet or more just pops into my mind and I construct a poem around it. The second anniversary of Apollo Eleven, however, was little noticed which I thought was terrible so this was the first time I sat down to compose a poem from scratch
Also among poems, my favorite couplet that I have ever written is in "So How About An Asteroid" (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/so-how-about-asteroid-poem.html]:
Who could possibly be annoyed
About the study of an asteroid.
My favorite stanza is from "On Age 82" (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/09/on-age-82-poem.html]:
I do not text
And do not tweet
I'm 82 years old
Feeling kind of beat..
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/items-with-most-page-views-and-my.html
The most populat item judged by page views for a 2017 piece goes to the little eight-line poem "Teenager" published on January 5th and is the only item to have received more than 600 page views at 623. All-time, however, goes to the short piece, "What Does this Mean?" with 748 page views published in September 2012. (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/09/what-does-this-mean.html). The post consists entirely of one rather long sentence," What can you say about a nation that opposes unions for teachers, firemen, and police, but supports the professional National Football League referee's union? Are our priorities straight?" It still gets a page view now and then.
Number 2 for 2017 is "Michael Flynn" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/michael-flynn.html) with 519 page views followed by Numbers 3 and 4 "Parallel Government" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/parallel-government.html) and "Pugnacious Politics" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/pugnacious-politics.html). The former had 505 pages views and the latter 501.
"Illegal Immigration" drew 491 page views as the 5th most viewed (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/illegal-immigration.html). Curiously, numbers 2 and 5 were published a day apart as were numbers 3 and 4. The same is true of #6 ans #7 " Conservative Ideals" (170) and "Trump's Humor" (166 also)
Additional pieces with fewer than 200 page views but more than 100:
"Mexico Earthquakes" drew spot number #8 with 158 page views.
Posts #9 and 10 each got 151 page views, a day apart, following the trend above, "New Malls," October 27th (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/conservative-ideals.html) and "Presidential Decorum" on October 26th (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/presidential-decorum.html).
Number 11 in popularity was "Paid Patriotism" with 146 page views (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/paid-patriotism.html ). The post on "Sheriff Joe" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/sheriff-joe.html) garnered 142 page views for 12th place, edging out "Rex Tillerson" (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/rex-tillerson.html) garnered 141 page views for the 13th spot.
My peersonal favorites are somewhat different.
I consider "Corporate Tax Cuts: Unintended Consequences" to be one of my best publications, but it got only 71 page views(http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html).
It is right up there with" Effectiveness Of Taxes" posted way back in May of 2010 and is my personal favorite. While this piece ultimately has received 131 page views, which is nice, it hardly competes in favorability with many others published since.(http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html)
I repeat an analysis of the Great Depression from the 2016 report: "New in 2016 is a series of three posts examining the Great Recession Vs. The Great Depression (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-great-recession-vs-great-depression.html; http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/great-recession-versus-great-depression.html; and http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/great-recession-versus-great-depression_9.html) . Here I note how dangerous financial collapses are relative to recessions and the Great Recession involved a financial collapse somewhat like 1929. There is a dangerous hangover from financial collapses. After the 1929 financial collapse many people turned to Soviet-Style Communism, fortunately not enough to alter our political system. In the 2008-2009 financial collapse, people turned to Donald Trump, not truly a member of either political party (Democrats or the establishment Republicans)."* It is yet to be seen how this turns out.
Let me repeat two Honorable Mentions from the 2016 report*. I wouldn't say this is a favorite of mine, but it can be important to some, i.e. "Preferred Stock Investing" with 235 page views [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/11/preferred-stock-investing.html]. I have invested for about 60 years, but never got involved in preferred stocks until the last decade. I would also like to mention one additional poem, though it got only 19 page views "Upon the Second Anniversary Of Apollo 11," the first landing on the Moon [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/01/upon-second-anniversary-of-apollo-11.html]. Normally a couplet or more just pops into my mind and I construct a poem around it. The second anniversary of Apollo Eleven, however, was little noticed which I thought was terrible so this was the first time I sat down to compose a poem from scratch
Also among poems, my favorite couplet that I have ever written is in "So How About An Asteroid" (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/so-how-about-asteroid-poem.html]:
Who could possibly be annoyed
About the study of an asteroid.
My favorite stanza is from "On Age 82" (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/09/on-age-82-poem.html]:
I do not text
And do not tweet
I'm 82 years old
Feeling kind of beat..
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/items-with-most-page-views-and-my.html
Wednesday, January 10, 2018
IS INFLATION FINALLY COMING?
We have two world's going on in the U.S. One is that "we need to get the country going again" and the other is the reality that the country is actually steaming along near or at maximum performance. Not only that, but the global economy is doing even better.
For example, last year had the highest household income ever.* Credit card debt and household debt is at a record high.** At the same time as all this, there is talk of deporting a lot of undocumented or other immigrants on temporary visas. There is a shortage of labor and exporting people will exacerbate the problem.***
When is the congress and our president going to face reality? With the recent tax cut, they are throwing gasoline on the fire.**** But small firms plan to spend even more on plant and equipment.**** As this is an area of the economy that has lagged, this change will probably increase the GDP that is already up to 3%. If you want to bet on something, should you bet on rising inflation?
It is true that hourly and weekly wages are only rising slowly on average and that means there are some people for whom wages are not rising at all. So where are consumers getting all the money to keep consuming at it extreme high in addition to adding credit card debt and maybe withdrawing money from IRAs and 401Ks? One place is home equity that is, yes, also at an all-time high.****
Homeowners are racking up record amounts of home equity, thanks to fast-rising values in today's competitive housing market. No surprise, more people are now starting to tap that cash. What are they spending it on? Mostly making their homes even more valuable.*****
Renovation spending is soaring, and 80 percent of borrowers taking out home equity lines of credit say they would consider using that money to renovate, according to a survey released in December by TD Bank.*****
................................................................
Remodeling spending topped $152 billion in 2017, and renovations for owner-occupied single-family homes will increase 4.9 percent in 2018 over 2017, according to the NAHB. That does not include remodeling done by investors looking to flip or rent properties, both of which are increasing as well.*****
Read the entire article for even more information on home equity.
* http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/median-household-incomes-hit-new-record-high-in-2016-finally-eclipsing-1999-levels/article/2634110
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/as-credit-card-debt-hits-record-high-a-trick-can-save-you-thousands.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-debts-hit-record-high-in-first-quarter-1495033206
http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/05/17/u-s-household-debts-hit-record-high-in-first-quarter.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/employers-brace-for-the-loss-of-an-immigrant-work-force.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/pouring-gasoline-on-fire.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-firms-poised-to-spend-more-on-plants-equipment-1409785285
***** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/home-equity-hits-record-high-heres-how-homeowners-are-spending-it.html
For example, last year had the highest household income ever.* Credit card debt and household debt is at a record high.** At the same time as all this, there is talk of deporting a lot of undocumented or other immigrants on temporary visas. There is a shortage of labor and exporting people will exacerbate the problem.***
When is the congress and our president going to face reality? With the recent tax cut, they are throwing gasoline on the fire.**** But small firms plan to spend even more on plant and equipment.**** As this is an area of the economy that has lagged, this change will probably increase the GDP that is already up to 3%. If you want to bet on something, should you bet on rising inflation?
It is true that hourly and weekly wages are only rising slowly on average and that means there are some people for whom wages are not rising at all. So where are consumers getting all the money to keep consuming at it extreme high in addition to adding credit card debt and maybe withdrawing money from IRAs and 401Ks? One place is home equity that is, yes, also at an all-time high.****
Homeowners are racking up record amounts of home equity, thanks to fast-rising values in today's competitive housing market. No surprise, more people are now starting to tap that cash. What are they spending it on? Mostly making their homes even more valuable.*****
Renovation spending is soaring, and 80 percent of borrowers taking out home equity lines of credit say they would consider using that money to renovate, according to a survey released in December by TD Bank.*****
................................................................
Remodeling spending topped $152 billion in 2017, and renovations for owner-occupied single-family homes will increase 4.9 percent in 2018 over 2017, according to the NAHB. That does not include remodeling done by investors looking to flip or rent properties, both of which are increasing as well.*****
Read the entire article for even more information on home equity.
* http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/median-household-incomes-hit-new-record-high-in-2016-finally-eclipsing-1999-levels/article/2634110
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/as-credit-card-debt-hits-record-high-a-trick-can-save-you-thousands.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-debts-hit-record-high-in-first-quarter-1495033206
http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/05/17/u-s-household-debts-hit-record-high-in-first-quarter.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/employers-brace-for-the-loss-of-an-immigrant-work-force.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/pouring-gasoline-on-fire.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-firms-poised-to-spend-more-on-plants-equipment-1409785285
***** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/10/home-equity-hits-record-high-heres-how-homeowners-are-spending-it.html
Monday, January 8, 2018
ECONOMY: CONSTRUCTION AND MANUFACTURING
Recent articles show that construction and manufacturing may blossom during the upcoming year if all the skilled labor can be found. Below are summaries of two such published articles. You are encouraged to read the two citations in their entirety.
CONSTRUCTION*
For all of 2017, construction added 210,000 jobs, a 35 percent increase over 2016.
Construction spending is also soaring, rising more than expected in November to a record $1.257 trillion, according to the Commerce Department. That was up 2.4 percent annually. Spending increased across all sectors of real estate, commercial and residential, with particular strength in private construction projects. The only weakness was in government construction spending.*
.......................................................................
Contractors are most optimistic about construction in the office market, which has seen little action since the recession. Transportation, retail, warehouse and lodging were also strong in the survey. Respondents were less encouraged by the multifamily apartment sector, which is just coming off a building boom.*
The biggest concern for the industry is the severe shortage of labor. This is slowing what could be a far more robust recovery in the residential housing market, which desperately needs more homes.*
.....................................................................
"There needs to be serious consideration in allowing temporary work visas until American trade schools can adequately crank out much needed, domestic skilled construction workers," NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun wrote in response to the monthly employment report.*
MANUFACTURING**
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an average of about 171,000 jobs were added per month in 2017 While that's a drop from the average of 186,000 jobs added per month in 2016, the last year of Barack Obama's presidency, average unemployment stood at 4.1 percent in December, and it's much lower in pockets of the country.**
.......................................................................
The top five sectors since the election in terms of the number of jobs added are professional and business services; education and health; leisure and hospitality; construction; and manufacturing.**
.......................................................................
Economists credit Trump's push for deregulation and the recent victory in overhauling the tax code, both of which sent the stock market and business confidence soaring, for spurring job creation. A rebound in oil prices, a weaker dollar and stronger global economic growth also served as main drivers in job growth.
That the average employment rise is somewhat lower in 2017 than 2016 is to be expected as full employment continues to be approached.
Also worthy of mention is that the global economy is soaring which is also good for the U.S. corporations and therefore the economy and the stock markets.
No legislation or executive orders have passed or been made to stop this roaring economy although the recent tax cut is like pouring gasoline on a fire.*** (Yes, I know, Republicans say they want to get the economy going again.) The ultimate effect of the tax cut on the economy, positive or negative, is yet to be experienced.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/by-all-measures-a-construction-boom-is-shaping-up-for-2018.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/low-unemployment-means-finding-skilled-labor-can-be-challenging.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/search?q=pouring+gasoline+on+a+fire
CONSTRUCTION*
For all of 2017, construction added 210,000 jobs, a 35 percent increase over 2016.
Construction spending is also soaring, rising more than expected in November to a record $1.257 trillion, according to the Commerce Department. That was up 2.4 percent annually. Spending increased across all sectors of real estate, commercial and residential, with particular strength in private construction projects. The only weakness was in government construction spending.*
.......................................................................
Contractors are most optimistic about construction in the office market, which has seen little action since the recession. Transportation, retail, warehouse and lodging were also strong in the survey. Respondents were less encouraged by the multifamily apartment sector, which is just coming off a building boom.*
The biggest concern for the industry is the severe shortage of labor. This is slowing what could be a far more robust recovery in the residential housing market, which desperately needs more homes.*
.....................................................................
"There needs to be serious consideration in allowing temporary work visas until American trade schools can adequately crank out much needed, domestic skilled construction workers," NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun wrote in response to the monthly employment report.*
MANUFACTURING**
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an average of about 171,000 jobs were added per month in 2017 While that's a drop from the average of 186,000 jobs added per month in 2016, the last year of Barack Obama's presidency, average unemployment stood at 4.1 percent in December, and it's much lower in pockets of the country.**
.......................................................................
The top five sectors since the election in terms of the number of jobs added are professional and business services; education and health; leisure and hospitality; construction; and manufacturing.**
.......................................................................
Economists credit Trump's push for deregulation and the recent victory in overhauling the tax code, both of which sent the stock market and business confidence soaring, for spurring job creation. A rebound in oil prices, a weaker dollar and stronger global economic growth also served as main drivers in job growth.
That the average employment rise is somewhat lower in 2017 than 2016 is to be expected as full employment continues to be approached.
Also worthy of mention is that the global economy is soaring which is also good for the U.S. corporations and therefore the economy and the stock markets.
No legislation or executive orders have passed or been made to stop this roaring economy although the recent tax cut is like pouring gasoline on a fire.*** (Yes, I know, Republicans say they want to get the economy going again.) The ultimate effect of the tax cut on the economy, positive or negative, is yet to be experienced.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/by-all-measures-a-construction-boom-is-shaping-up-for-2018.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/low-unemployment-means-finding-skilled-labor-can-be-challenging.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/search?q=pouring+gasoline+on+a+fire
Sunday, January 7, 2018
STOCKS: TRUMP'S FIRST YEAR VS. OTHER PRESIDENTS
CNBC published an article comparing the stock markets during Donald Trumps first year with those of other Post WW-II presidents. As usual, Trump exaggerates his record. If he said he had ONE of the best records, OK, but the best records were set by two other presidents, by far, President Harry Truman edging out President Barack Obama. Trump edged out Bush-41 for 3rd place.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/heres-how-trumps-first-year-on-stocks-jobs-compares-to-past-presidents.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/heres-how-trumps-first-year-on-stocks-jobs-compares-to-past-presidents.html
Thursday, January 4, 2018
SANTA CLAUS RALLY AFTER ALL FOR 2017!
The stock market indices rallied Tuesday and Wednesday to push all the indices into positive territory, but below average. The SandP500 came closest with an increase of 1.1% compared to the average of 1.4%. The other indices all were below 1% though you could round the NASDAQ Composite to 1%. So it took a remarkable two days of trading to push the indices into positive territory.
The numbers follow:
The SandP500 closed last Friday at: 2683.34. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at 2713.06. For an increase of 1.1%
The DJIA ended last Friday at: 24754.06. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at: 24922.68. for an increase of 0.68%
The NASDAQ Composite ended last Friday at: 6995.96. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at. 7065.53. for an increase of 0.99%
The Russell 2000 (small capitalization companies) ended last Friday at: 1542.93. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at 1552.58 for an increase of 0.63%.
I speculate that the decline in the indices during the first 5 trading days of the Santa Claus trading period were due to "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" of the tax cut.
As I type this, all the indices are in positive territory on Thursday.
The numbers follow:
The SandP500 closed last Friday at: 2683.34. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at 2713.06. For an increase of 1.1%
The DJIA ended last Friday at: 24754.06. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at: 24922.68. for an increase of 0.68%
The NASDAQ Composite ended last Friday at: 6995.96. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at. 7065.53. for an increase of 0.99%
The Russell 2000 (small capitalization companies) ended last Friday at: 1542.93. It closed today Wednesday, January 03, 2018, at 1552.58 for an increase of 0.63%.
I speculate that the decline in the indices during the first 5 trading days of the Santa Claus trading period were due to "buy on the rumor and sell on the news" of the tax cut.
As I type this, all the indices are in positive territory on Thursday.
Wednesday, January 3, 2018
LIES: TRUMP VS. OBAMA
But remember what George Costanza said, "Its not a lie if you believe it."
An article recently compared the lies of Trump and Obama* (Also see Scale of Lying**).
We
applied the same conservative standard to Obama and Trump, counting only demonstrably and substantially false statements. The result: Trump is unlike any other modern president. He seems virtually indifferent to reality, often saying whatever helps him make the case he’s trying to make.
In his first 10 months in office, he has told 103 separate untruths, many of them repeatedly. Obama told 18 over his entire eight-year tenure. That’s an average of about two a year for Obama and about 124 a year for Trump.
We have used the word “lies” again here, as we did in our original piece. If anything, though, the word is unfair to Obama and Bush. When they became aware that they had been saying something untrue, they stopped doing it. Obama didn’t continue to claim that all Americans would be able to keep their existing health insurance under Obamacare, for example, and Bush changed the way he spoke about Iraq’s weapons capability.
.................................................................
In all, we found 18 different bald untruths from Obama during his presidency. Trump told his 18th separate untruth in his third full week in office, and his list keeps growing.
........................................................
Since his inauguration, Trump has told 10 separate untruths about Obama, including false allegations of wiretapping and false descriptions of Obamacare. We counted only two falsehoods Obama told about Bush.*.
For the list of lies see the article.
*https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/14/opinion/sunday/trump-lies-obama-who-is-worse.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-scale-of-lying.html
October 18, 2016
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