GLOBAL TEMPERATURES - 2015 IS THE HIGHEST

This year of 2015 is turning out to be the warmest year on record (135 yrs)*  You are encouraged to look at the original as it is interactive.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/28/feeling-a-little-warm-this-year-2015-will-set-a-record.html

OIL EXPORTS

Despite the U.S. decision to end its oil-export ban, the country remains more dependent on foreign oil than when the exports were banned 40 years ago, which raises the issue of peak oil, Forbes writes.*

There go our chances of becoming independent of Mid-East oil.  Looks like war until "hell freezes over."  Also looks like we can kiss lowering carbon dioxide levels goodbye.

* http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelkrancer/2015/12/22/the-end-of-the-crude-oil-export-ban-offers-promise-and-peril/

AMERICAN MANUFACTURING AND JOBS

As manufacturing increases increases in the U.S.  You would think that jobs in manufacturing would increase too,  but such is not the case:*

* mercatus.org/sites/default/files/manufacturing-for-web-pdf26.pdf
http://forexfactorynews24.com/?p=1132

CHRISTMAS IN JAPAN

Only about 1% of Japanese are Christians.  The rest are Buddhist and/or Shinto (You can be both.).  So it may come as a surprise that Christmas is a big deal in Japan though it is not a religious celebration but a romantic time..*  It is a time to consume KFC fried chicken and white frosted Christmas cake plus, usually on Christmas Eve, the exchange of presents.  Orders for the fried chicken start as early as October, and it is the busiest time of the year for KFC in Japan..

(Picture from WSJ, December 19, 2015))

Japanese can be surprised to find out that chicken is not the usual dish for Christmas in America or elsewhere.

When I was in Japan in 1965 there was no KFC in Japan, but then I returned in 1975,  KFC was all over the place, though I don't recall ever eating in one.  In addition, Mister Donut was prominent as well.  Because eating in restaurants in Japan is very expensive, I used to eat breakfast in a Mister. Donut, and it was very crowded.  Of course the Golden Arches of McDonalds was there in abundance, and a Big Mac cost $1.35 which was a lot more than in 85 cents in America at the time (in fact, expensive by Japanese standards), but they were cooked to order and were better than at home.  I often had a big Mac for dinner while in Tokyo in 1975.

* http://www.whychristmas.com/cultures/japan.shtml;
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-japan-christmas-isnt-a-holiday-its-kentucky-fried-chicken-day-2015-12-19

WHAT DOES "LEADING FROM BEHIND" MEAN?

Nelson Mandela seems to be the source of the phrase "Leading From Behind.".  Leading From Behnd in our political environmet is attributed to President Obama on our involvement in Libya and is usually said in a derogatory way by Republicans; however, in the rest of life, the term is usually viewed very favorably.

I imagine the phrase means "quietly getting someone to do something but let them take the credit," i.e "You can accomplish much if you don't care who gets the credit.** (Ronald Reagan)

In the short term, the governing of Libya is in chaos by any measure.***  It should give pause to simply overthrowing Assad in Syria, though this doesn't seem to bother some politicians.  Hillary Clinton speculates that the governing problem in Libya will sort in self out in time (years).  Only time will tell.

* http://smallbusiness.chron.com/theory-leading-behind-76457.html; http://www.companyfounder.com/2011/07/leadership-great-leaders-often-lead-from-behind/
** http://www.quotes.net/quote/8259; http://smallbusiness.chron.com/theory-leading-behind-76457.html:
The theory of leading from behind is one proposed and championed by Linda Hill of the Harvard Business School. The professor had the idea when reading Nelson Mandela’s autobiography, in which he likens leaders to shepherds directing flocks from behind. Some sheep will move ahead, the flock following these trailblazers, but actually, it is the shepherd who oversees the flock. Hill says that today’s business climate requires leaders who act similarly, allowing their charges to emerge, lead and innovate. The manager, meanwhile, supports these initiatives, yet stays ever mindful of the bigger picture and direction.
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libya

CHINESE BUY ROCKY MOUNTAIN AIR

Can China really hold out until 2030 to start to attack its pollution problems?

A Canadian start-up company [Vanity Air] bottling fresh air from the Rocky Mountains has seen sales to China soar because of rising pollution levels.*
.........................................................
“Our first shipment of 500 bottles of fresh air were sold in four days,” co-founder Moses Lam says in a telephone interview with the Telegraph. 

A crate containing 4,000 more bottles is making its way to China, but he says most of that shipment  has been bought.
 .......................................................
A 7.7 Litre can of crisp air taken from Banff National Park in the majestic Rocky Mountains range sells for roughly 100 yuan (£10), which is 50 times more expensive than a bottle of mineral water in China. 

Vitality Air sells bottled fresh air and oxygen across North America, to India and the Middle East. But China remains its biggest overseas market.

* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/12051354/Chinese-buy-up-bottles-of-fresh-air-from-Canada.html

DONALD TRUMP - FINAL COMMENTS (I HOPE)

I only write this because the news media does not seem to understand what Donald Trump is doing (Mark Halperin is an exception).  Don't the commentators hear the applause when Trump says these outrageous things?  Make no mistake, everything Trump says is giving voice to a big percentage of the Republican party, it seems like at least 25% and could be much larger.  ALL his comments are carefully crafted to appeal to this large group of people who believe Obama was born outside the U.S., that he is a secret Muslim, that all Hispanic illegals should be deported, that we should build a wall on our southern border, that Muslims should not be allowed to enter America (I suspect many would find the idea appealing that all Muslims should be deported or placed in detention camps.), etc., etc.  It isn't pretty folks but there it is.  You aren't going to solve this hate by getting rid of Trump.  It will still be out there, as Trump is following these people, not leading them..

And don't believe that all these Trump supporters are only high school graduates or dropouts.  I know one person who owned his own business and by his life style it looks like he was very successful, another was a retired Captain in the Army, and a third was a successful real estate investor.  E-mails I got from retired military officers were so bad that when 9/11 occurred, I prayed it was not some retired Air Force officers who did it until I heard otherwise.

I say at least 25% above because most followers of Ted Cruz also believe these things.  In fact Ted Cruz is said to hope that Trump supporters will follow him (Cruz) if Trump departs the race.  I don't know why anyone wants Cruz for president, but the fact that he actually did shut down the government, rather than just talk about it, is probably an attraction.

Well, it is nice that various Republicans have expressed outrage over Trump's latest comments of barring Muslims from entering the country, including American citizens who happen to be abroad and also returning members of our armed forces.  But a number of the other candidates have expressed somewhat similar anti-Muslim views, but in more guarded ways (e.g. Only let Christians from Syria emigrate here).*  Trump gives these views to you raw.  I have called adherents to these ideas as red meat Republicans.

So how, some have asked, do you identify a Muslim?  Well the ancient Japanese showed the way.  In the battle of a Christian stronghold in Japan called the Great White Castle of Shimabara, the Shogun hired the Dutch fleet to come in and bombard the castle to help break it.  Thus the Japanese were able to break the stronghold.  Then they had the Christians step on a picture of the Cross (replicas of this can be purchased in the trinket shop).  If they refused, off with their heads.  If they stepped on the Cross, the Shogun figured they weren't good enough Christians to worry about.**  So Mr. Trump, you can have everyone who wants to enter the U.S,. to stomp on a copy of the Koran.  If they won't do it, no entry.  If they do it, they aren't good enough Muslims to worry about.  Now I suppose that many Christians, Jews and others will refuse to stomp on the Koran too, but I guess they can't enter and are just collateral damage

* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeb-bush-syrian-refugees-christian-muslim_5648b98de4b045bf3def84df
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-tea-cup-seismograph-biographical.html
http://japanschristianheritage.com/2010/04/shimabara-rebellion/

OUR COLLECTIVE NERVOUS BREAKDOWN - II

Well, the latest from Donald Trump is that he issued a campaign statement calling on U.S. authorities to bar all Muslims from entering the country until the nation’s leaders can “figure out what is going on.”*

Many in the news media are beyond belief that Trump would propose this and in fact bar even American Muslims who are out of the country from reentering America (which is probably unconstitutional)  He no doubt includes this to eliminate those who have joined ISIS. Some in the news media feel this is the last straw.  But did they hear the applause after he said this?  I suspect that his poll numbers may increase as a result.

But I don't know, Cruse seems to be surging in Iowa and is now ahead of Trump in the polls. This is supposed to make me happy?  May the Saints preserve us! I hope he is just the flavor of the month?

Gloria Steinem said on Charley Rose the other night that "If Republicans had cancer and Obama was the only one who had a cure, the Republicans would probably refuse it." (Reconstructed as nearly as I can remember her comment.)**

* http://news.yahoo.com/trump-call-bar-muslims-u-111500000.html;_ylt=A0LEVivVTGdWNrcAQlUnnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByMjB0aG5zBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzYw--
** See Gloria Steinem on Charley Rose, December 4, 2015 "My Life On The Road" at http://www.charlierose.com/watch/60658259 but I couldn't bring it up.

CAN HE HOLD OUT?

(This post is written on December 7th, Remember Pearl Harbor 74 yrs ago)

Holy Cow, as recently as November 22, 2015,* I wrote a piece titled Our Collective Nervous Breakdown, and now we have had a terrorist attack in California with 14 people killed and 21 injured and people are ready to send a major ground force to the Middle East to destroy ISIS (polls say 57% in favor of this).  Please remember that on a average day in America around 30 people are murdered by guns and we accept that so the day in California could easily fit into a normal day.

So President Obama is grudgingly giving ground to these demands by first sending 50 special forces to Syria to do things and now maybe 200 more to Iraq to conduct raids, train, rescue, and generally do things against ISIS.  But so far, he is not panicing and sending a major force to "kill" ISIS.  First of all we are bound to lose many more troops in an ISIS ground war than are killed by terrorist attacks in America.  Even in response to 9/11 in which nearly 3,000 people died we lost almost twice as many troops killed in Iraq and Afghanistan** as in this major terrorist attack.  In addition we had vastly more troops injured, many with life altering injuries including those whose brains got shook up by IED devices.  Some of these are essentially walking dead.

So can President Obama hold out against the calls for a large military expeditionary force to combat ISIS?  He has about 14 months to go in his presidency.  Time will tell.  In the meantime, we will have something like 12,000 people in America murdered by guns and perhaps 18,000 committing suicide with guns.  We will have about 30,0000 American killed in automobile accidents.  But of course, these are just normal life in America.  In contrast we probably will have a good deal fewer than 100 killed by terrorists.  These, however, are intolerable.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/11/our-collective-nervous-breakdown.html
** I did support the war in Afghanistan because I felt we had to do something in response even if it was a failure, but I have never understood why we went into Iraq.

TRUMP OR CRUZ?

Donald Trump or Ted Cruz?  Now there is a choice for you, but Cruz has risen to the number two spot in the national polls so we must face this possibility.

After considerable thought on how to differentiate between these two candidates, I've decided to pick Trump.  Why?  Well Trump is a liar so all the bombast he is spewing may not be how he would actually govern.  He is probably saying all these things to appeal to the Republican base, but Cruz seems to mean what he says, at least most of the time.  After all he was willing to do things like shut down the government* over the ACA (AKA Obamacare) in a futile attempt that wasted a lot of money.  Cruz doesn't seem to have any compassion for heath care for the poor.**  He seems to favor unrestricted access to guns by everyone in the U.S. which would include the mentally unstable and even terrorists.  He attended a meeting where the chairman gave an impassioned rant about how the bible says gays should be killed (though not now because they should be given a chance to repent.).***  Cruz gave no criticism of the pastor who did this.  In general, Cruz seems to mean what he says so I find him scary.  Where he stands on the issues a can be seen at: http://www.thepoliticalguide.com/Profiles/Senate/Texas/Ted_Cruz/Views/ (somewhat dated)and http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Ted_Cruz.htm.****

*  In doing this, we found out just how important people feel the national parks and monuments are, a pleasant surprise for me.
** Cruz favors a market based system, but actually ACA is supposed to be a market based system with competition among insurance companies.  He does not say in eliminating the ACA how poor people would be covered in health care.
*** http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2015/11/06/23118593/christian-pastor-calls-for-execution-of-gays-at-event-attended-by-ted-cruz
**** One of my favorite original sayings is, "Politicians are skilled at the art of getting the votes of the people they plan to fleece."

CONFESSIONS OF A RECOVERING MORNING JOE ADDICT

I used to watch the 3 hr political morning news show called Morning Joe (Scarborough) since its inception.  I would record it so I could speed through the advertisements.  As the first 20 min. of the program is usually repeated in the third hour, I would also speed through that too.  Sometime in 2015 I got tired of Morning Joe's rants (usually negative) that went on and on and were repeated during and future programs.  As the year went on, I found I was speeding through more and more of the program as they discussed things like Donald Trump ad nauseam..  It finally got so I could race through the 3 hrs in about 1 hr.  The final straw, however, happened when guests on the program started ranting like Morning Joe.  For example, one referred to a TV statement by Sec. John Kerry that he should "shut up" and get some sleep.  Yes, he did look tired and it could have been said so in polite terms rather than the terms used by "red meat" Republicans ("bed wetting" liberals should "Sit Down And Shut Up," they like to say).

So I removed the recording of the program from my VCR about a week ago and have made due with CNN since, though I don't watch it like I used to watch Morning Joe.  It seems there is little new news around so they repeat what little they know about things like the Russian fighter shot down by the Turks, the shooting of the Planned Parenthood building in Colorado, and the shootings of unarmed African Americans (well I guess one had a knife, but he was walking away when shot 16 times).  So I don't record CNN as they seem to report a limited number of events over and over.

WHO BUYS ISIS OIL?

Who is buying oil from ISIS? Russia says Turkey is:
The comments included Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev echoing accusations made by President Vladimir Putin that Turkey is protecting Islamic State because of imports of oil products produced at enterprises under the control of the militant Islamist group.*

Then Turkey's Prime Minister says "prove it" and that Assad is actually buying  oil from ISIS:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lashed out at claims his country is doing business with, and is sympathetic to Isis - also known as Islamic State - and is purchasing oil from the terrorist group. Erdogan, still seething at Russian claims that a jet shot down by Turkish fighters was given no warning, says IS are actually selling oil to Syria's President al-Assad - meaning Russia are indirectly supporting the group, despite claiming to be out to destroy them.**

Maybe Iraqi Kurds are buying the oil too:
ISIS makes its fortune by selling oil from seized territory to its enemies, including the Syrian government it has vowed to topple and to Kurds in Iraq, a U.S. official said Thursday.***

Looks like the EU is buying the oil too:
EU Ambassador to Iraq Admits: We're Funding ISIS by Buying Their Oil****

Looks like everyone is buying ISIS oil but the U.S.  At least I hope we are not buying it; however, we are letting it happen though we say we are trying to cut off ISIS funding:*****.
Western intelligence officials say they can track the ISIS oil shipments as they move across Iraq and into Turkey’s southern border regions. Despite extensive discussions inside the Pentagon, American forces have so far not attacked the tanker trucks, though a senior administration official said Friday “that remains an option.”

 China anyone? What a mess!

* http://webmailb.juno.com/webmail/new/5?session_redirect=true&userinfo=8b254f2f4f26b1dc56d8fe41da329a7b&count=1448553823&randid=1606029440
** https://uk.news.yahoo.com/isis-turkeys-president-erdogan-says-202113539.html#CX9TKqW
*** http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/syrian-regime-iraqi-kurds-among-those-buying-isis-oil-official-n232381
**** http://www.breitbart.com/london/2014/09/05/eu-buys-isis-oil-ambassador/
***** http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/world/middleeast/struggling-to-starve-isis-of-oil-revenue-us-seeks-assistance-from-turkey.html?_r=0

CONSTRUCTION JOBS CONTINUE IMPROVEMENT

Jobs in construction continue to increase.

Construction employment increased in 43 states including the District of Columbia since last year, the Labor Department said Friday, a bit of good news for a sector still struggling with the effects of the Great Recession.
While broad gains in construction jobs were spread nationwide in October’s data, for the year, the Pacific region stood out. Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, said high-tech industries are driving activity in Silicon Valley and San Francisco, while the Gerald Desmond bridge replacement project has been a boon to the Los Angeles area.
.......................................................
Home construction remains sluggish as millennials spend longer living at home or choose downtown residences over the suburbs, tamping down demand for newly built homes.
.......................................................
In October’s data, West Virginia was an outlier to the generally positive construction trend: building jobs plummeted by 5,800 or 17% over the past year. Its plunge in construction employment is due to the economic hit from the large pullback in oil and gas production, said James Diffley, a senior director at IHS Economics,... *

The report referenced above does not mention that even with a lower level of construction than in 2006, construction is feeling a pinch for qualified workers as many construction workers are retiring and many Mexican workers are staying home.**

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/20/where-construction-jobs-are-booming/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/09/housing-and-labor-shortage.html

OUR COLLECTIVE NERVOUS BREAKDOWN

I don't know what has happened to America.  We seem to go from hysterical situation to hysterical situation., like last year's panic was over Ebola.*  We were urged not to panic, but we did.  Now we have gone just crazy over a possible terrorist hidden in Syrian refugees.  Peggy Noonan, who is susceptible to hysteria writes in the Wall Street journal, "...pause the refugee program, figure out how to screen those seeking entrance more carefully, and let in only the peaceable.  If it takes time, it takes time."  Well it already takes 18 mo. of screening.**  The word "pause" is actually a ruse that actually means "permanently stop."  Even some bright people don't believe the experts know anything, not how Ebola is transmitted, not how to screen immigrants.  Of course you can't guarantee that no terrorist will manage to creep through any screening process.  Nor can you guarantee that none of the refugees will be radicalized after living in the U.S. for awhile, but so far as I can find out, no refugee has turned out to be a terrorist so far.

Not surprisingly the hysteria over terrorists is alive and well in our politics.  Donald Trump, for example, wants all Muslims to be registered.***  John Kasich says we should have an agency to spread Judeo-Christian values around the world that seems to violate church and state (He has since toned down on this.).***  Though Kasich is a Evangelical, he has been pretty good up to now to keep his religious beliefs pretty much to himself except for his belief that Christ has said we should look after those less fortunate than ourselves, a belief that is constructive.  Can it be long before some candidate proposes "internment camps," as a polite term for "concentration camps," or expelling all Muslims from America?

Why is it that we tolerate about 30,000 automobile deaths and 30,000 gun deaths a year in America and brush off things like the Auroa, CO, movie theater  New Town, CT, shootings, but make ourselves sick over the possibility of some sort of terrorist attacker.  We should be vigilant, of course,and do all that is reasonable to prevent terrorist attacks, but let's be rational about it.   But we have a long history of hysteria.

* More than half of U.S. adults worry that there will be a large-scale Ebola outbreak across the next year, according to a new Harvard poll conducted last week and released on Tuesday. Most of them are nervous that they’ll get sick with Ebola, or someone in their family will. ..... But at the same time, scientists and public health officials have repeatedly urged Americans not to panic about Ebola. (http://www.forbes.com/sites/dandiamond/2014/10/16/ebolas-very-contagious-ebolas-also-hard-to-catch-confused-heres-how-to-understand/)
** http://abcnews.go.com/International/officials-fear-syrian-refugees-pose-threat-us/story?id=28930114
*** http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/gop-rivals-denounce-trumps-call-muslim-database-n467201;http://api.talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/john-kasich-govt-agency-judeo-christian-values

BOMBING VS BOOTS ON THE GROUND

Let's see, when Obama drew a Red Line on Assad if he used chemical weapons we would bombard and bomb him.  Assad did cross the red line.  In reply to possible bombing and shelling, Assad volunteered to give up all Geneva Convention banned chemical weapons (that did not include chlorine gas) and, apparently,y he at least largely did so.  But litteralists accused Obama of not following through on his word.  It was not that they thought he should have gotten more for not shelling and bombing Assad's home base, it was that he drew a Red Line so he should have shelled and bombed Assad no matter what.  I suppose these people feel that this would have done in Assad.  I'm sure we could have destroyed a lot of buildings and perhaps a lot of civilians, but would this have toppled Assad?  Please note sending American troops on the ground in Assad's home base was never considered.

Well, in the case of ISIS,Obama IS bombing and strafing them, but we are told by these same people that this is not enough.  We need troops on the ground to take and hold the territory, that bombing and strafing is not enough to destroy them.*  The number of troops asked for is rising from around 10,000 before to, say, 50,000 now.  Yesterday I heard the assessment that it would take 200,000 troops to destroy 40,000 ISIS members.

It used to be that American politics ended at our border, but that is long gone and now everything is politicized.  So it no longer matters what you do as it is sure to be vehemently criticized.

* The Kosovo War was an exception where air power won itself without boots on the ground.

JOBLESS CLAIMS - 11-08-2015

Weekly jobless claims continue their slow decline and are associated with a healthy job market:  This continues the disconnect between voters emotions and the increasing economy

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 for the week ended Nov. 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's claims were unrevised.

Claims have now held below the 300,000 threshold for 37 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and are not too far from levels last seen in the early 1970s. Claims below this level are usually associated with a healthy jobs market.*

.........................................................................

In a separate report, the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index for November came in at a better-than-expected 1.9 increase, compared with expectations of a drop of 1.0 and a decline of 4.5 a month earlier.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/19/us-weekly-jobless-claims-nov-8-2015.html

U.S. A NATION OF SCAREDY-CATS?

First we wouldn't allow any prisoners of Guantanamo Bay into U.S. prisons (NIMP).  Somehow we felt that the prisoners there were some sort of superhuman beings that would escape from our most secure prisons and destroy the country.  Incredible.  And this in a country that tolerates over 10,000 murders by guns a year with vastly more deaths by suicide without a blink, a total that approximates the number killed by automobile accidents (over 30,000/yr), also tolerated.  But one death from a terrorist?  No way!  by the way, what country did Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols (remember the Oklahoma City Bombing* that killed at least 168 people?) come from again?  Was it Syria or Iraq or some other Muslim country?  I can't remember.  Oh, come on Americans they were home grown.

And remember Ebola last year when the country went into absolute hysteria they were going to get it and die.  Otherwise intelligent people said they didn't believe the authorities that it couldn't be transmit through the atmosphere.**  In the meantime  we in the U.S/ had flu season that does kill "only" 3,000 people in a "good" and upwards to 50,000 people in a bad year.

And our holding of these prisoners at Guantanamo Bay without charges, to say nothing about no trial, for more than a decade will be ultimately viewed by historian as a dark moment in U.S. history, rivaling the interment of all Japanese Americans in WW-II.

And now we have governors politicizing our acceptance of 10,000 vetted Middle East refugees because there may be a terrorist or two get through the vetting process and kill some American is another dark moment.  What have we become in the U.S., a nation of scaredy-cats?

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oklahoma_City_bombing
** Ebola is not spread through the air, by water, or in general, by food. However, in Africa, Ebola may be spread as a result of handling bushmeat (wild animals hunted for food) and contact with infected bats. There is no evidence that mosquitoes or other insects can transmit Ebola virus. Only a few species of mammals (e.g., humans, bats, monkeys, and apes) have shown the ability to become infected with and spread Ebola virus. ( http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html)

WHY ARE VOTERS SO PESSIMISTIC?

The U.S. economy had over 5.5 million job openings as of the last business day of September, the second-highest tally of available jobs in the 15 years the Labor Department has collected this data.*
..........................................................
The Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, known as Jolts, comes out with a one-month lag to the main monthly jobs report.
.........................................................

 (Click on figure to enlarge)


While the number of available job openings have soared to unprecedented levels, the rate of hiring and voluntary job separation remains much lower. The number of people who voluntarily quit their job and the number of people who were laid off or fired was little changed. 
 .............................................................
The percent of workers who voluntarily quit their job has held at 1.9%. In the years prior to the recession, the rate was typically above 2%
..............................................................
In better news, the rate of layoffs was 1.2%, near the lowest rate ever measured in the 15-year-old survey of 1.1%. This fits with other reports from the Labor Department showing that weekly filings for jobless benefits are hovering near a 40-year low.

With such good news, why are voters so unhappy?  Perhaps a Gallup (a private group) poll reflects the problem:**

(Click on figure to enlarge)

But the private Conference Board shows quite a different picture:**
 
(Click on figure to enlarge)\

Both organizations are non-governmental so the paranoid who distrust government do not have a case here.

So this is the paradox: Most Americans who want jobs have them, most work for firms that are doing OK, and more than twice as many expect their incomes to rise than to decrease. But ask them how the economy is doing, and they say badly.**
...................................................................
The Conference Board shows consumer confidence at roughly the same level as the mid-1980s. Gallup shows confidence in the country’s direction as half what it was in the mid-1980s. The data is choppy, but Gallup’s economic confidence index declined in the past year while the Conference Board’s rose. Both the Conference Board and Gallup are independent polling organizations with long and respected track records—so theories that the government data is all bogus won’t cut it as an explanation here.
First, it’s worth noting that Gallup and the Conference Board don’t ask their questions at all the same way.**
..................................................................
... the slightly more popular explanation, favored by 42% of economists, is that the lack of confidence is a structural phenomenon. Yes, unemployment is down and GDP has been growing, but these factors bounce around a long trend line, and that trend line has some troubling characteristics.**
.................................................................
White House officials have spent several months  touting the economic recovery noting the lengthy string of monthly job gains, two quarters of stronger-than-expected growth, and a shrinking budget deficit. The White House has tried to use these data points to draw a stark contrast between now and the state of the economy during the financial crisis.***

On the other hand:

Many American voters are wary of the current economic recovery, voicing concerns that an economy they find not so great won’t improve or could worsen in the next year, according to national exit poll data from Tuesday’s election.***
 ...............................................................
White House officials have spent several months  touting the economic recovery noting the lengthy string of monthly job gains, two quarters of stronger-than-expected growth, and a shrinking budget deficit. The White House has tried to use these data points to draw a stark contrast between now and the state of the economy during the financial crisis.
Likewise, many incumbent GOP and Democratic governors touted economic recoveries in their states.***
.................................................................
Just 1% of voters felt the economy was “excellent.” Roughly 70% said the economy was “not so good” or “poor.”
When asked whether the economy was getting better, getting worse, or roughly the same, voters were split evenly between the three choices.
And when asked if a voter’s family financial situation had improved in the past two years, just 29% of respondents said it had.***

 (Click to enlarge)

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/12/job-openings-rise-above-5-5-million-but-the-hiring-rate-remains-little-changed/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/12/what-explains-the-paradox-of-an-improving-economy-and-miserable-voters/?mod=djemRTE_h
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/11/05/american-voters-very-skeptical-of-economys-strength/

SOME DODD-FRANK LIES BY POLITICIANS

An article titled "Presidential Candidates Don't Understand The Banking System" by Richard X. Bove* states (quotes in italics):

(1) It is often stated (by various candidates) that, since the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act, the biggest banks have gotten bigger.That's simply not true: In fact, the four biggest banks in the country have declined from having nearly 58 percent of the industry's assets in 2010, (when Dodd-Frank was passed) to nearly 52 percent in 2015 and they are likely to shrink even more rapidly in the next few years due to newly published regulations.

(2) It is being argued that small banks are failing at a faster rate since Dodd-Frank was passed. Also not true. From 1986, when the number of banks peaked in modern times, to just before the financial crisis, we were losing more than one bank a day to mergers and failures. We are still losing banks but at a pace well below the past.

(3) There is a fear that banks are still taking on too much risk, despite the hundreds of new regulations being put in place. This is the most outrageous untruth of all. Banks now have more cash as a percent of assets than any time in the past 25 to 30 years.

(4) Perhaps the biggest misunderstanding is the position of capital in the banking industry. Both sides of the political aisle and the regulators keep demanding more and more capital as protection for the banking system. Yet in the past five years, equity in the commercial-banking system has been consistently greater as a percent of assets than any time since 1938.

(5) Moreover, it was recently demonstrated that a number of politicians, and the media, did not realize that the Federal Reserve is no longer allowed to bail out banks. Further, it is not understood that the Fed now has a new system in place built around something called Living Wills. Under this system, every large bank in the country has provided a template to the regulators as to how to dismantle itself if it were to become insolvent.

Bove does say, " In that 77-year period [since 1938], the United States has not had one Depression or collapse of its banking system." I don't understand this.  What was it that we rescued ourselves from in 2008-2009 (e.g. TARP, Troubled Asset Relief Program)?

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/12/presidential-candidates-dont-understand-the-banking-system-bove-commentary.html

CAN SUNNI ARABS FIGHT SUNNI ARABS?

We see situations that call for Arab Sunni Tribes to fight Arab Sunni tribes, but it rarely occurs no matter how awful the Arab Sunni Tribe may be (e.g ISIS though ISIS may take over them).  There was a period in the Second Iraq War where some Arab Sunni Tribes did fight the Sunni insurgents I believe but were handsomely paid to do so.  However, in Syria, we seem to be able to get many Arab Sunni recruits to fight  Bashar al-Assad (who is not Sunni) but have great difficulty getting any Arab Sunnis to fight ISIS, even though many of the ISIS fighters are foreigners.  Yes the Kurds will fight ISIS with gusto, and they are Sunnis but not Arab Sunnis.

WAR

I have written before that , if I had to summarize my life in one word, it would be WAR.  We used to have a break between wars: WW-I to WW-II, WW-II and Korea, Korea and Vietnam, Vietnam and 9/11..  But now it seems to be a continuum where there is a short period of a lowered war effort (like now) only to shortly have a resurgence, and we seem to be seeing the early stages of escalation now from a president who vowed to end our wars.  Both Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham are proposing we need to go back to major war in the Middle East to defeat ISIS.  Actually this is an odd view where there is a split in the Republican Party because Rand Paul and Donald Trump are agin' it.  I wonder what historians will eventually say about this period?  Perhaps it will be called the 30 Years War or maybe 50 Years War.  I don't know.  So how long can we stay at war when only about 1% of the population does the fighting, but the costs of the war are done on borrowed money.  Will it eventually lead to the destruction of America as a Great Power?

BEN CARSON

In my own case, I have long and faulty memories of my youth.  The most common thing is to remember an event happening at a younger age than it really did, but even on something like the Pearl Harbor attack, my memory isn't quite right.  The way I remember it, we were playing the card game hearts late on the Sunday afternoon of December 7th when news came over the radio that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.  When I moved last time, I ran across a theme On the Pearl Harbor attack I had written for school and in that I wrote  that I had just come in from playing my favorite game of Kick The Can when my late brother told me the Japanese attached Pearl Harbor.  I'm sure we did play Hearts that afternoon and no doubt there was more news on the attack, but my memory was faulty.

So I guess I don't fault Ben Carson for saying he got an offer to go to West Point with a full scholarship.  After he was told by a couple of people that they could get him this, and maybe they could, but it wasn't an offer from West Point.  Believe me, many are led to think they could get into West Point and few succeed.  It happened in my extended family.

For some people, actual life is not exciting enough and they have to embellish it.  This was true of Joe Biden, and I am glad he is not running for president again and subject his "faulty" memory to us, yet again

But Carson's "faulty" memory is a key to his success as a candidate because it makes him  a great redemption story "I once was lost but now am found."  It also could be that Evangelicals view Carson's surgical career to be Christ-like.  These aspects give him an edge over another super-Evangelical Mike Huckabee who actually won Iowa in the 2008 Presidential election. St. Paul had the greatest redemption story in that he converted from being a persecutor of Christians to the greatest proponent for Christianity and has at least seven books in the New Testament.** 

I'm more concerned by Dr. Carson's "belief" that the pyramids were built by the biblical figure Joseph to store grain against a seven-year famine he said coming.  There is probably reasonable proof that Joseph existed,* and he may well have warned about a coming famine, maybe even that it would last for 7 yrs.  But the facts are that the pyramids were built as graves and were not really suitable to store grain.

And this is a problem with so-called Evangelicals.  If you believe that Jesus fed the multitudes with five loaves of bread and two fishes you can believe anything and the facts be (expletive).  What the true meaning of this parable is, is unclear to me, but it appears in four books of the bible.  It also seems to be an embellishment of an earlier parable from Elisha in the Old Testament book of Kings who fed 100 men with 20 leaves of bread. Perhaps the meaning is that Jesus was the true representative of God and not Elisha.  Incidentally Elisha also is credited with performing 28 miracles, even more than the 14 credited to Elijah.***

We saw what belief can do with George W. Bush who consulted with a "higher power" over going to war with Iraq, though just last night I heard that he had consulted with his father who supported him (in an interview of John Meacham by George W. Bush).  It appears from evidence by George H.W. Bush that he did not try to dissuade his son from going to war in Iraq.  But this doesn't mean that Dubya didn't consult a "higher power."  We were very lucky with Ronald Reagan that he didn't get us into more terrible situations than he did as he also had strange beliefs like we are in the "end times."  Thus we have the belief among Evangelicals of such things as we can use the atmosphere as an infinite sewer where we can dump all the pollutants we want with no consequences.

But it remains to be seen whether Ben Carson can bully the press into subjection.

* http://www.slideshare.net/insightgirl/did-joseph-really-exist
** On a journey, St. Paul suffered sun stroke and could not see for three days, but this was accompanied by an epiphany and conversion to Christianity.  He then promoted Christianity with the fervor that he had previously used to oppress them.  This fervor was of the nature of "there is no sinner like a converted sinner," but he was very convincing.
*** http://www.bcbsr.com/survey/eli.html

DEATH RATES 2015

Addiction is becoming a political issue.  Chris Cristie, Governor of New Jersey and Republican Presidential candidate, recently gave an impassioned speak on addiction.*  I might add that among the addictions sweeping this country is gambling and I feel the question in the recent Republican debate on Fantasy Football was quite legitimate and should be taken seriously.**  Addictions, especially pain killers and alcohol, are resulting in increased death rates particularly of  whites in the age range of 45 to 54.  Among industrialized countries, this mortality problem seems to be uniquely American (see figure).  See quotes in italics and figure from an article on the subject below:

The death rate among middle-aged white Americans has soared in recent years, driven by an epidemic of prescription drug overdoses, as well as rising liver disease and suicide, according to a new report from economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton at Princeton University.***
.............................................................
As their paper shows, the surge in death rates is highly concentrated among whites ages 45 to 54 with a high school education or less; death rates have dropped for the college educated and Hispanics. The overall death rate among blacks is higher than among whites, but has declined over the past 15 years. In 1999, blacks were more likely to die from drug overdoses. Today, whites are.***
..............................................................
In other words, prescription drug addictions may be causing economic challenges by depressing labor-force participation, rather than economic forces like deindustrialization causing prescription-drug addictions. But either way, an urgent health and economic crisis is at hand.***

(Click on figure to enlarge)

* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chris-christie-drug-addiction-treatment_56327ee9e4b0c66bae5bc0f3
** http://www.addiction.com/4356/fantasy-football-addiction/

*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/03/the-economic-roots-of-the-climbing-death-rate-for-middle-aged-whites/?mod=djemRTE_h

THE DO NOTHING SPEAKER GOES

Well I for one do not shed a tear for the retirement of the Speaker of the House Of Representatives John Boehner.  What he will go down in history for is presiding over the worst two years of passing bills in the post-WWII history of the House. In 2013, the House only passed 57 bills that became law for the least productive year.  My only reserve is that Boehner's replacement might be even worse.  Well, lets see what Paul Ryan actually does.  Let's be optimistic unless he proves otherwise.

I had hoped that Boehner would have given us a vote on the Senate immigration reform bill, but no luck.  It seems Republicans don't want to try to solve the problem but just use immigration as a whipping boy.  We are supposed to be happy that he avoided a government shutdown again.

This record was preceded by a number of years that set records for non-productivity at the time since 1947: 2012-61, 2011-90, and 2009-129.*  You will note that 2010 is an exception with 258 bills passed which was not a record at the time; however.  And so it was during administration of Barack Obama.  Some want to blame Obama. He entered the Presidency as a conciliator, but found that, to get 20% of he wanted, he had to give the Republicans 80% of what they wanted.  Furthermore the Republicans would then beat Obama over the head with things that he compromised on like delaying the tax increase on the wealthy.  Otherwise it was pretty much a slash and burn Congress.  For the House record see the Huffington Post article (quotes in italics):*

As 2012 comes to a close, the 112th Congress [Jan. 5 2011-Jan. 3 2012] is set to go down in American history as the most unproductive session since the 1940s.
According to a Huffington Post review of all the bills that hit President Barack Obama's desk this session, Obama has signed 219 bills passed by the 112th Congress into law [Reference two** says 284 total for the two year period]. With less than a week to go in the year, there are currently another 20 bills pending presidential action. In comparison, the last Congress passed 383 bills, while the one before it passed 460. [Note: Reference two** says 385 bills passed.]

The 104th Congress (1995-1996) currently holds the ignominious distinction of being the least productive session of Congress, according to the U.S. House Clerk's Office, which has records going back to 1947. Just 333 bills became law during that two-year period, [Reference two** says 337] *** meaning the 112th Congress needs to send nearly 100 more bills to Obama's desk in the next few days if it wants to avoid going down in history -- an unlikely prospect, considering that both chambers are squarely focused on averting the "fiscal cliff" before the new year.
The 112th Congress has done far less than the 80th Congress (1947-1948), which President Harry Truman infamously dubbed the "Do-Nothing Congress." Those lawmakers passed 906 bills that became law.

The 213th congress (Jan. 3, 2013 to Jan. 02, 2015) was only slightly better  than the 212th with 296 bills enacted. They did spend a lot of time passing bills to repeal the so-called Obamacare (the ACA)- 37 times to be exact in an exercise of futility.  And most things past were things like naming new post offices and naming special days.  I agree that Obamacare could be much improved - single payer for one example rather than the personal mandate, but they didn't even try this.**  But the House did not just vote against Obamacare, they didn't vote to replace it with anything.  They don't want government sponsored health insurance at all.

And in 2014, the House initiated the fewest bills since at least 1984.  Lest you think that President Obama has been vetoing a lot of bills, there were no vetoes in any of these 4 years.

* http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-08-14/unproductive-congress-not-passing-bills/57060096/1
**http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/28/congress-unproductive_n_2371387.html
*** It should be pointed out that even the 385 bills passed by the 111th Congress is probably also a record low up to then because the only two worst numbers were for Congresses in effect for less than two years: the 107 Congress (Jan. 3, 2001-Nov. 22, 2002) and the even shorter 104th Congress (Jan. 4, 1995 - Oct. 4, 1996).

LAYOFFS UP UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DOWN IN 2015

There is a dichotomy going on where layoffs are increasing but new jobless claims continue to decline.  The number of jobless claims are now below where they were prior to the "Great Recession."  In contrast, job layoffs are up for the 3rd quarter of 2015, but according to the figure below, they are less than before the "Great Recession."

In fact, the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, slipped 2,000 to 263,250 last week, the lowest level since December 1973. * [!]

..................................................
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the average duration of unemployment was 26.3 weeks in September, compared with 31.8 weeks for the same period in 2014.
..................................................
The third quarter of 2015 was the worst in terms of job cuts since the third quarter of 2009, the report found. So far this year, there have been more layoffs announced than in the full year of 2014. (Note: the figure below shows that the job cuts are less than the 3rd quarter of 2011.  I do not know the reason for the conflict.)

..................................................
The odds are especially bright for skilled workers, he said. "Skilled workers are the fuel of this economy." says Christopher.

(Click to enlarge)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/layoffs-dont-necessarily-spell-trouble-challenger.html

WAGES IN 2014

The average American took in $44,569.20 last year, according to data released Tuesday by the Social Security Administration. It marks an increase of 3.5 percent from 2013.*
A problem with averages is that the average can be skewed by adding in a few very large number and Median wage is a better measure, i.e. half the workers earned more and half earned less.  See the next quote that shows how skewed the average wages are compared to the median:
Still, 67 percent of wage earners made less than or equal to the average. Median compensation came in at $28,851.21 for the year, up from $28,031.02 in 2013. *
The Median Wage is given in the picture below:

(Click to enlarge)
You can see what is skewing the average to the high side from the following quotes:

Some 134 Americans raked in more than $50 million last year, according to data released Tuesday by the Social Security Administration. The total rose about 20 percent from 110 in 2013.**

The  number of Americans making between $20 million and $50 million also jumped, hitting 776 in 2014. That marked an increase from 565 in the previous year.**

Wages of those making $20 million to $50 million are graphed below:**

(Click to enlarge)
Though 2012 was the peak year for those making over $50 million (at 166), the general trend is upward from 2010 at 81 vs 134 in 2014.  The figure shows, however, that 2014 was the peak year for those making $20 million to $50 million (at 776, close to doubling 2011 at 406).

At the same time there are jobs disappearing.  The most in hazard are mail carrier (expected to decrease by 28% by 2022), meter reader and farmer (expected to decrease by 19% by 2022), among others, narrowing job opportunities.***

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/20/the-average-american-made-446k-last-year.html

 **http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/20/rich-americans-got-a-lot-richer-last-year.html

*** http://www.careercast.com/jobs-rated/most-endangered-jobs-2015

DEBATE DIFFERENCES

There is a curious difference between the Republican and Democrat debates.  Except for John Kasich who is clearly the best qualified person to be president (and look where he is in the polls), Republicans emphasize their lack of qualifications to be president whereas in the recent Democratic debate, every candidate emphasized their qualifications to be president.  Frankly I found the latter to be a more satisfying debate.

There seems to be a dichotomy in the response to the Democratic debate whereas all the pundits feel that Hillary was the clear winner whereas focus groups right after the debate favored Bernie Sanders.  I think the focus groups much appreciated Bernie Sanders comment that the American people are sick and tired of Hillary's e-mail, and that he wants to discuss the major issues.

Curiously, a number of pundits, including the liberal Mika Brzezinski (who I guess feels she must bend over backwards to be "fair."), said that Bernie flubbed his comment which, they say was actually to be an insult,  that if it wasn't for Hillary's personal e-mail server we could be discussing the real issues.  I've now listened to Bernie's comment three times, and I believe he said it as he meant to as there was no hesitation in his voice in saying it.  And does anyone believe that the Republicans wouldn't find something to assassinate Hillary with if she hadn't done the e-mails on her own server, even if it wasn't true?  I'm sure that Bernie's comment the way he said it led to the large influx of donations as I believe that the public is sick and tired of politicians continuously assassinating their competitors.

The media seems to like Marco Rubio among the Republican candidates for president in spite of his stand of no exception to no abortions and a tax plan that favors the rich the most.*

As the candidates plans on the issues come out, it seems that Donald Trump isthe best of a bad lot of Republican candidates (with the exception of John Kasich) in spite of his crazy immigration plan and a tax plan that favors the rich.

* Mr. Rubio, [who was brought up in a family living "paycheck to paycheck'] in New York for fund-raising at the time of the interview, offers an example. He proposes a significant new tax credit for households with children. But he would also cut the top federal income tax rate to 35 percent, from nearly 40 percent, and eliminate levies on capital gains, dividends and multimillion-dollar estates. (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/us/politics/tax-plans-of-gop-favor-the-rich-despite-populist-talk.html?_r=0)