Saturday, November 25, 2017

MY POSTS AND CORPORATE TAX CUTS - II

For awhile I thought that my average page views on items in this blog had risen into the 30-40 range, but this may not be true.  I've been writing this blog for 8 yrs now and haven't the slightest idea why some of my posts will get hundreds of page views and others less than 20.

For example, I think my post Corporate Tax Cuts; Unintended Consequences was one of the most important I have written (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html).  It has gotten 61 page views which is nice, but why isn't this one of my posts that has gotten in the hundreds of page views?

For example I point out in Corporate Tax Cuts that, if we lower our corporate tax cuts, there is nothing to prevent other countries from lowering theirs.  So far as I know, no one else has mentioned this possibility.  There was a time when I attended a lot of congressional hearings, and I was quite impressed by the general intelligence of Senators (but not so much Representative).  I can't believe that they haven't thought of this possibility.  Are we being lied to?

There is something weird with our Republican political leaders.  It appears that Gary Cohn, the top economic adviser, feels there is some direct relationship between corporate  tax cuts and increasing investments:
President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, Gary Cohn, looked out from the stage at a sea of CEOs and top executives in the audience Tuesday for The Wall Street Journal's CEO Council meeting. As Cohn sat comfortably on stage, a Journal editor asked the crowd to raise their hands if their company plans to invest more if the tax reform bill passes.
Very few hands went up.
Cohn looked surprised. "Why aren't the other hands up?" he said.*
Was Cohn faking his surprise at the lack of corporate interest in more investing by corporations with a decrease in corporate tax rates?  Do they really not realize that we are in a very good economy, that companies are supplying our needs with current plant and equipment, with current employment, and at current wages?  Do they not realize that corporations are rolling in money and could well expand if they thought the expansion would bring more business?

I am not alone in saying that corporations are likely in this economic environment to buy back stock and increase executive rewards as they did in the 2004 tax holiday for repatriating foreign profits. and maybe give a special dividend or raise their dividend.  Surely congress and the administration know this.

There are those who say the stock market will crash if we don't have a big tax reduction for business and the wealthy.  Companies are making excellent profits in recent years and the wealthy have done extremely well.

I'm cynical enough to think the whole reason for doing these tax cuts is to take money away from Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and the like:
The G.O.P. budget would cut $5 trillion in spending over the next 10 years, with a trillion of those dollars coming from the Medicaid program and half a trillion from Medicare. (“Entitlements” like housing assistance and food stamps wouldn’t fare much better.) Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s budget would increase to $620 billion.**

That GDP has been under 3% for most of the post Great Recession years, is pointed to, to say we are in a slow economy.  But GDP is a spending metric.  One reason that GDP isn't higher is that corporations are not spending, but hoarding their profits and buying back stock.  Certainly the consumer is doing their part and household debt is at record highs.***

I certainly will be very, very surprised if the tax cut and tax holiday on repatriated profits result in much increase in the economy.  Also as I pointed out long ago, tax cuts for individuals is an inefficient way of stimulating the economy.****

* http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-trump-tax-plan-corporate-investment-20171115-story.html
** https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10/republicans-propose-slashing-medicaid-to-pay-for-tax-cuts
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/household-debt-at-new-high.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html

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