GDP, INVENTORIES, HOUSING, UNEMPLOYMENT ALL LOOKING GOOD

Everything seems to be go on the economy.  The GDP is up.*  For some time inventories have been the biggest drag on the economy (see figure in New Analysis of GDP),** but even inventories finally seem to be working off.*

GDP: “The bigger-than-expected 2.9% annualized gain in third-quarter GDP growth confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost within the last year. As such, this leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise interest rates in December and a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting isn’t entirely out of the question.” —Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics*

(Click on figure to enlarge)**

INVENTORIES: Inventories offered a tailwind for third-quarter growth, with change in private stockpiles contributing 0.61 percentage point to the quarter’s 2.9% growth rate. Inventories had been a drag on overall growth for the prior five quarters. An expected turnaround in inventories was one reason many economists have predicted stronger economic growth in the second half of the year.**


HOMEOWNERSHIP: The nation’s homeownership rate, which has dropped sharply for years, could be at a turning point. It hit 63.5% in the third quarter, the Census Bureau said Thursday. That is a significant jump from the prior quarter, when it hit 62.9%, the lowest point in 51 years.***

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended Oct. 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

That marked 86 straight weeks that claims have been below the 300,000 threshold, which is normally associated with a strong job market. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller. This means that the number of claims per 100,000 people is the lowest ever.****
...............................................................
The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 15,000 to 2.04 million in the week ended Oct. 15, the lowest reading since June 2000.

The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims declined 6,250 to 2.05 million. That was the lowest level since July 2000. The continuing claims data covered the period of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is calculated.****

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/new-analysis-of-gdp.html
 http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/28/economists-react-to-third-quarter-gdp-the-u-s-is-roughly-on-track/?mod=djemRTE_h
 http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/us-advance-q3-gdp.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/new-analysis-of-gdp.html
 http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/10/28/third-quarter-u-s-gdp-at-a-glance/
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/27/after-hitting-a-51-year-low-the-homeownership-rates-on-the-rise/?mod=djemRTE_h
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/homeownership-crawls-back-up-from-50-year-low.html
**** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/us-weekly-jobless-claims-oct-22-2016.html