ECONOMIC FORECAST - UPDATED

39% think that the economy will weaken next year.*
DETROIT – General Motors, Ford Motor and other automakers in the past year cut thousands of jobs and shuttered factories as industry vehicle sales slow and fears of an economic slowdown pick up.*
MIDLAND, Texas—America’s hottest oil-drilling regions—such as this one at the heart of the Permian Basin—are seeing their economies soften as shale producers slash spending, leading to emptier hotels, choosier employers and less overtime for workers.


Early this year, demand for the tubing, bolts and valves used in fracking was so high that Homer Daniels’s oil-field equipment company, RK Supply, in the Midland area was on track to easily beat its annual revenue forecast. But by August, Mr. Daniels had to impose a hiring freeze as customers delayed projects.*
U.S. industrial production plunged in October at the fastest rate in a year-and-a-half, further underscoring the nation’s manufacturing downturn at a precarious time in its ongoing trade negotiations with China.*

Respondents to a poll by The Financial Times-Peterson said they did not feel better off since Donald Trump took office and that the strong economy is only helping the wealthy.**
The Financial Times-Peterson poll released Monday found that almost two-thirds of Americans said their finances haven’t gotten better since Trump has taken office.**

Thirty-one percent of respondents in the new poll said their finances have gotten worse since Trump won the White House, while 33 percent said their finances haven’t gotten better or worse in the same time frame.**

Just over one-third, 35 percent, of respondents did say they have seen a positive change in their finances since Trump took office.**

Of those who said their financial situation has worsened since Trump took office, 36 percent said their wages are to blame, while 19 percent blamed their personal or family debts.**

There are indications that the Global Tariff War has adversely affected industry.
“We find that the 2018 tariffs are associated with relative reductions in manufacturing employment and relative increases in producer prices,” concluded Fed economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, in their academic paper.


“[T]he longer-term effects of the tariffs may differ from those that we estimate here,” the economists conceded, but added: “[T]he results indicate that the tariffs, thus far, have not led to increased activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector.”
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According to the report, the top 10 manufacturing industries hit by foreign retaliatory tariffs were producers of: magnetic and optical media, leather goods, aluminum sheet, iron and steel, motor vehicles, household appliances, sawmills, audio and video equipment, pesticide, and computer equipment.****
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Conclusions made by the Pew Research Center are similar to those of the Financial Times Peterson poll.
Majorities of upper-income and middle-income Americans say current economic conditions are excellent or good. But only about four-in-ten lower-income adults share that view, while a majority say the economy is only fair or poor.**

In spite of all the news above,  the "experts" say that a recession in 2020 isn't likely.***
Of the 53 professional forecasters that make up the panel of the National Association for Business Economics survey, for example, no one predicts a 2020 recession. A model from Goldman Sachs estimates that there is less than a 25% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, and notable investors including Marks and “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, have told CNBC that they don’t expect a recession during 2020.***


* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/where-the-wealthy-expect-market-economy-to-be-at-end-of-2020.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/automakers-cut-jobs-close-factories-to-save-billions-in-2019.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shale-slowdown-takes-economic-toll-11576405800
https://www.ccn.com/manufacturing-recession-puts-u-s-economy-on-track-for-worst-quarter-under-president-trump/
** https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/468802-majority-says-they-are-not-better-off-under-trump-poll
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/11/americans-say-strong-economy-only-helping-the-rich.html
https
https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/12/11/most-americans-say-the-current-economy-is-helping-the-rich-hurting-the-poor-and-middle-class/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/homebuilder-confidence-jumps-to-highest-level-in-20-years.html
*** https://grow.acorns.com/what-experts-say-you-can-expect-from-the-economy-in-2020/
**** https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/tariffs-trump-china/2019/12/27/id/947571/?ns_mail_uid=142cf6cb-b757-4a77-afda-d3310b9288ee&ns_mail_job=DM78602_12292019&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010102p8bb49



https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/homebuilder-confidence-jumps-to-highest-level-in-20-years.html





https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/02/ism-manufacturing-november-2019.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/21/yellen-good-reason-to-worry-about-us-economy-sliding-into-recession.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/27/economy-growing-better-than-economists-had-expected-a-few-weeks-ago.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/11/bond-king-gundlach-says-a-recession-is-very-unlikely-in-2020.html
https://grow.acorns.com/what-experts-say-you-can-expect-from-the-economy-in-2020/