JOBS AND JOBLESS - SEPTEMBER 2018

The increase in employment was less than anticipated.
134,000: That was the total amount added to payrolls, according to the Labor Department. The number was well below Refinitiv estimates of 185,000 and the slowest pace since the 14,000 added in September 2017.*

3.7 percent: September's unemployment rate was down two-tenths of a point from August and was at the lowest level since December 1969, when the jobless level hit 3.5 percent.*

The drop in unemployment to 3.7% happened because of increases in the revised July and August hires of 87,000 job totals. The revised numbers can easily change by 40,000.  For this reason, I wish they would discontinue with the initial monthly estimate that is demonstrable uncertain.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits continue to be remarkably low.  In fact at record lows because of the increased size of the workforce over time.  Thus the number of weeks where the unemployment claims have been below 300,00 is a record on the basis of unemployment claims per 100,000 workers.
 Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended Sept. 29, the Labor Department said on Thursday.**

Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. Claims fell to 202,000 during the week ended Sept. 15, which was the lowest level since November 1969.**

The distribution of job gains and losses are given in the figure:***

(click on figure to enlarge)

If we really are at full employment, then why are so many people available to be employed?.  I suppose the answer is that it is estimated that about 150,000 new people enter the job market each month.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/the-five-most-important-numbers-from-todays-jobs-report.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/us-weekly-jobless-claims-sept-29-2018.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html