Thursday, August 3, 2017

U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES ITS IMPROVEMENT - JULY 2017

The economy of the nation purrs along.  So far President Trump or congress hasn't done anything to ruin the economic recovery from the Great Recession.  In fact, some of his deregulation may help some companies with time, but it is too early to expect anything now.

Factory goods orders jumped 3.0 percent, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. That was the largest gain since October 2016 and followed two straight monthly declines. May's data was revised to show orders falling 0.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.8 percent drop.*

Jobless claims continue their great string of weeks below 300,000, something not seen since 1970.  In fact, if you look at jobless claims per 100,000 workers, the current string is a great record because of so many more workers.
Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 126 straight weeks. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was smaller. The labor market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at 4.4 percent.**
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Retailers have accounted for 245,616 of the 556,493 new jobs that have been announced so far this year, according to Challenger tracking. Online retail giant Amazon plans to hire about 50,000 workers this month at its warehouses and sorting centers.**
Note that re retailers are doing net hiring although many companies are shedding workers.
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The four-week moving average of continuing claims edged up 750 to 1.96 million, remaining below the 2 million mark for the 14th consecutive week.


(click on figure to enlarge)
Note that the overall trend in jobless numbers seems to be on a slight downward trend.

Meanwhile, wage growth continues to increase at a modest, sustainable pace;
(click on figure to enlarge)

So long as President Trump and congress keep their hands off the economy, it will do well for the foreseeable future.  I would support a 10% drop in the corporate maximum tax rate to see if it will pay for itself.  This means the average company would pay around 18-19% without taking away any tax aids.

Note added August 4:  The preliminary July jobs report was bullish:
The U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs last month, according to the Labor Department, well above the expected gain of 183,000.
(https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/us-stocks-jobs-report-beats-fed.html)

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/june-factory-orders.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/03/us-weekly-jobless-claims-july-29-2017.html

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