Thursday, December 22, 2016

ECONOMIC SUMMARY - OBAMA ADMINISTRATION


The White House released Thursday its annual Economic Report of the President, the last such volume produced by the Obama administration.
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First, the report flags the recent slowdown in productivity growth, a problem that isn’t unique to the U.S. Average annual productivity growth—that is, the amount of output a worker can produce in an hour of work—has slowed to less than 1% in advanced economies over the past decade, roughly half the rate of the previous decade. In the U.S., labor productivity growth has been slightly higher, at 1.3% annually, over the decade ended last year.*
(Click on figure to enlarge)
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But there has been much accomplishment over the past 7 yrs as well.
It notes a string of 74 months of job growth, adding 14.8 million jobs, and the 5% jump in real median incomes between 2014 and 2015. It also notes how growth in inflation-adjusted employer-based health-care coverage so far this decade has fallen well below the levels of last decade.*
There is more that could be added such as a record string of months where new jobless claims dropped below 300,000 for 93 consecutive weeks and counting.  It is the longest stretch since 1970 and the longest ever for claims per 100,000 population.

The current recovery in the economy is the 4th longest ever and will overtake the 3rd longest about next May (2017) if President-Elect Donald Trump doesn't screw it up.**

The GDP figures are low, mostly due to a buildup of inventories.***  There is some indication for the last couple of months of inventories beginning to be drawn down.  So if consumers continue to consume at their present rate, GDP should stat to raise.  The GDP figure for November is 2.9 that might begin to show the inventory decline.

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/12/15/white-house-economists-spell-out-the-four-most-stubborn-economic-challenges/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/economy-and-employment.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/remarkable-economy-forecast.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-american-economy-great-recovery.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/new-analysis-of-gdp.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/gdp-inventories-housing-unemployment.html

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