Thursday, December 29, 2016

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, CORPORATE EARNINGS, AND HOME PRICES

CNBC has an article on Consumer Confidence.*  Quotes are in italics:
Consumer optimism about the economy increased to the highest level since August 2001, according to a monthly survey released Tuesday.
The Consumer Confidence Index hit 113.7 in December, The Conference Board said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters expected the Consumer Confidence Index to hit 109.0 for the month.
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Consumers' assessment of current conditions declined slightly, with those saying business conditions are "good" sliding from 29.7 percent to 29.2 percent, and those saying they are "bad" ticking up from 15.2 percent to 17.3 percent, according to the report.
A similar dip was reflected in labor statistics, with those saying jobs are "plentiful" dipping to 26.9 percent from November's 27.8 percent, and those saying jobs are scarce climbing to 22.5 percent from last month's 21.2 percent.*...........................................................................
Home Prices also are at new highs:
The SandP/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was also up 5.6 percent in October from the previous year, extending a new high from the previous month.
The SandP CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose by 5.1 percent in October from the same time last year.**
"Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers," David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

"However, mortgage interest rates rose in November and are expected to rise further as home prices continue to out-pace gains in wages and personal income."**
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"The growth we're seeing today is, instead, a natural reaction to basic economic fundamentals. More and better opportunities for American consumers means high demand for housing, and that demand is not being met by an adequate supply of homes for sale — and so prices rise." 
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And lastly there is the stock market:
Maximilian Kunkel, Cross-asset strategist, Ultra High Net Worth at UBS told CNBC Tuesday.
"If you look at the third-quarter growth in the United States, earnings was at 4 percent. The market had forecast reduction year-on-year by about 1 percent. That was the first time since the middle of 2015 that earnings were actually accelerating. We think the earnings growth is going to accelerate into 2017. That's really what is driving the markets."*** 

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/consumer-confidence-for-december-2016.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/us-home-prices-hit-new-high-in-october-sp-corelogic-case-shiller.html
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/27/the-market-rally-has-nothing-to-do-with-trumps-victory-analyst-says.html

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