Sunday, July 17, 2016

AMERICAN ECONOMY - THE GREAT RECOVERY

Since the depths of the 2008-2009 Great Recession, there has been a steady, if slow, recovery for what is, right now, the second longest economic recovery.  The recovery undoubtedly would  have been quicker if the Republicans had permitted an infrastructure program.  Heaven knows there is plenty to do on the infrastructure.  But they wouldn't permit it and have tried to see that the recovery is disrupted.  Business, however, has had other ideas.  Republicans are probably frustrated that the recovery continues to take place.   As they cannot stop it, they demean it.  I think that in history, Obama will probably be known for this remarkable economic recovery from near economic death.  The Wall Street Journal has an article saying that things are picking up economically.  So in the end, this may turn out to be the longest economic recovery in history.

As so many people are unhappy with this economic recovery, I sometimes wonder if people are happier with a boom and bust economy?

But there is a problem that precedes the Great Recession in that, say, automobile assembly workers in Michigan lost their jobs and there wasn't anything to take its place as the factories moved to the South or Mexico and elsewhere.  Of course they are unhappy, and Hillary gets the blame because she was for NAFTA, a free trade agreement with Mexico and Canada.  Actually, there was a positive gain in U.S. employment during NAFTA,** but this increase was significantly in the lower paying service sector and others not where the automobile assembly workers were.

Proponents reject the claims of some that the free trade agreement is destroying the manufacturing industry and causing displacement of workers in that industry. The rate of job loss due to plant closings, a typical argument against NAFTA, showed little deviation from previous periods.[13] Also, US industrial production, in which manufacturing makes up 78%, saw an increase of 49% from 1993-2005. The period prior to NAFTA, 1982-1993, only saw a 28% increase.[10] In fact, according to NAM, National Association of Manufacturers, NAFTA has only been responsible for 10% of the manufactured goods trade deficit, something opponents criticize the agreement for exacerbating.[14] The growth of exports to Canada and Mexico accounted for a large proportion of total U.S. export gains.[15] However, the growth of exports to Canada and Mexico in percentage terms has lagged significantly behind the growth of exports to the rest of the world.**

New York has a plan called Start-Up NY*** where new businesses can start up and not pay taxes for 10 yrs.  This might have helped Michigan.

Detroit finally seems to be beginning to recover boosted by an insurance company Quicken Loans.*

But the problem left by companies moving elsewhere is general with a long history. Even where I live in the Sandhills area of North Carolina, there is an abandoned furniture factory some 15 mi. away in a town called West End.  I've heard that 300 workers were let go, devastating the town.  There was an attempt to convert the factory into a boutique mall, but that failed.  So there the large building sits, sometimes with part used for temporary storage.  You can see abandoned  buildings all over the country, i.e. abandoned textile mills in New England, abandoned steel plants in Pennsylvania, Maryland and elsewhere, etc., none of which were caused by NAFTA

I think the answer is not to abandon free trade which gives us low-cost goods, but to find ways to help communities hurt by free trade.

* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sandy-baruah/detroits-tale-of-two-citi_b_1438786.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Michigan_companies
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAFTA%27s_effect_on_United_States_employment
*** http://startup.ny.gov/


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