I'm 85 yrs old and have been through a lot of elections. My opinion is that at this time, voters are playing around so that polls are not particularly accurate. They will say that anyone is better than my party's candidate so I'm going to vote for the other party, but when the time comes to pull the lever, they just can't stand to pull the other party's lever. People begin to get serious maybe 4 days before the election and many will decide in the voting booth. So I wouldn't put too much stock in today's polling.
About 35% of the voters will vote Republican no matter what, likewise about 35% will vote Democratic. The only way you can affect these voters is to convince them not to vote. Among the independents, a large number are Right leaning and a similar number are Left leaning. There is hope of swaying these voters and that decides the election. Democrats have a particularly hard time getting their voters to come out on mid-term elections. On-the-other-hand, Republicans are more emotional and come out for all elections. The result is divided government.
Lots of working people are with Donald Trump because of the way he talks. They think he is with them. but they should be very careful. After all, Donald Trump on at least two occasions has said that he thinks American wages are too high.* You have to remember that he is a con man and he will con you if he can. So he may not be as sympathetic with the workers as he sounds as he has studied what they want to hear (Like President Obama is not an American born citizen.).
But as I survey the Republican field (and I include Paul Ryan in this), Donald Trump looks like the best Republican candidate with the exception of John Kasich. Jeb Bush may be a bit better than some of the others, but he is awful when it comes to the Right To Life and single-handedly kept Teri Schiavo on life support systems for years after she was brain dead.** Even after a couple of bad weeks for Donald Trump, he is only a few points behind Hillary Clinton in the polls (fewer than 10 points in any poll).
My point is that it is still very early in the election cycle, and, so far as I am concerned, the winner is still open. Remember that Hillary is doing rather well because she finally is officially the Democratic presumptive Democratic nominee and is getting a bounce from that.
* http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/12/politics/donald-trump-explains-wages-too-high-comment/
** http://www.nbcnews.com/id/8225637/ns/us_news/t/schiavo-autopsyshows-irreversiblebrain-damage/#.V2lSRPkrKM8
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