Tuesday, November 17, 2015

WHY ARE VOTERS SO PESSIMISTIC?

The U.S. economy had over 5.5 million job openings as of the last business day of September, the second-highest tally of available jobs in the 15 years the Labor Department has collected this data.*
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The Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, known as Jolts, comes out with a one-month lag to the main monthly jobs report.
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While the number of available job openings have soared to unprecedented levels, the rate of hiring and voluntary job separation remains much lower. The number of people who voluntarily quit their job and the number of people who were laid off or fired was little changed. 
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The percent of workers who voluntarily quit their job has held at 1.9%. In the years prior to the recession, the rate was typically above 2%
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In better news, the rate of layoffs was 1.2%, near the lowest rate ever measured in the 15-year-old survey of 1.1%. This fits with other reports from the Labor Department showing that weekly filings for jobless benefits are hovering near a 40-year low.

With such good news, why are voters so unhappy?  Perhaps a Gallup (a private group) poll reflects the problem:**


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But the private Conference Board shows quite a different picture:**
 
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Both organizations are non-governmental so the paranoid who distrust government do not have a case here.

So this is the paradox: Most Americans who want jobs have them, most work for firms that are doing OK, and more than twice as many expect their incomes to rise than to decrease. But ask them how the economy is doing, and they say badly.**
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The Conference Board shows consumer confidence at roughly the same level as the mid-1980s. Gallup shows confidence in the country’s direction as half what it was in the mid-1980s. The data is choppy, but Gallup’s economic confidence index declined in the past year while the Conference Board’s rose. Both the Conference Board and Gallup are independent polling organizations with long and respected track records—so theories that the government data is all bogus won’t cut it as an explanation here.
First, it’s worth noting that Gallup and the Conference Board don’t ask their questions at all the same way.**
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... the slightly more popular explanation, favored by 42% of economists, is that the lack of confidence is a structural phenomenon. Yes, unemployment is down and GDP has been growing, but these factors bounce around a long trend line, and that trend line has some troubling characteristics.**
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White House officials have spent several months  touting the economic recovery noting the lengthy string of monthly job gains, two quarters of stronger-than-expected growth, and a shrinking budget deficit. The White House has tried to use these data points to draw a stark contrast between now and the state of the economy during the financial crisis.***

On the other hand:

Many American voters are wary of the current economic recovery, voicing concerns that an economy they find not so great won’t improve or could worsen in the next year, according to national exit poll data from Tuesday’s election.***
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White House officials have spent several months  touting the economic recovery noting the lengthy string of monthly job gains, two quarters of stronger-than-expected growth, and a shrinking budget deficit. The White House has tried to use these data points to draw a stark contrast between now and the state of the economy during the financial crisis.
Likewise, many incumbent GOP and Democratic governors touted economic recoveries in their states.***
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Just 1% of voters felt the economy was “excellent.” Roughly 70% said the economy was “not so good” or “poor.”
When asked whether the economy was getting better, getting worse, or roughly the same, voters were split evenly between the three choices.
And when asked if a voter’s family financial situation had improved in the past two years, just 29% of respondents said it had.***


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* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/12/job-openings-rise-above-5-5-million-but-the-hiring-rate-remains-little-changed/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/12/what-explains-the-paradox-of-an-improving-economy-and-miserable-voters/?mod=djemRTE_h
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/11/05/american-voters-very-skeptical-of-economys-strength/

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