TRYING TO MAKE THE UNWORKABLE WORK?

Reports today (February 17, 2015) are that polls are showing something like 47% of Americans polled are in favor of boots on the ground in Iraq.*

It has been proposed that the Sunni countries develop a force and get rid of ISIL requiring "boots on the ground."  Respected Richard Haass, president of the Council of Foreign Relations, has been one prominent person to call for such a force.**  Does anyone really believe that the White House wouldn't like such a move?  It is such a great idea that one wonders why the Sunni nations aren't already developing such a force?  One should take into account that even Haass says such a force is a long shot.  Can there be something in the Sunni psyche that we Westerners don't understand?

We need to recall that Turkey has provided a highway for radicals to join ISIL.  There are Saudi's that are said to have provided ISIL with some funds.

Well, for one thing, I wouldn't be surprised if the leaders of the Sunni nation's are sitting around saying to each other, "Cool it, eventually the U.S. won't be able to resist providing cannon fodder (boots on the ground) and mop up ISIL."  I don't know whether Obama will be able to last out his remaining two years with out invading Iraq again with combat troops.

I've heard it said that the Iraq army is really a loose confederation of Shiite militias.  You have to wonder if the Shiites in Iraq are trainable into an army?  After all we already spent 8 yrs before training them and at the first test a whole army did cut and run.  I think a problem is corruption.  I've heard that the leaders of that army were bribed to disappear and that some even joined ISIL  In a country where corruption is so endemic (so I hear), it may be that any government forces are weak even to the point of defending themselves.

This morning I also heard on Morning Joe that the Sunni tribal leaders will not work to overthrow ISIL if Iran is involved, and they seem to be involved in such Iraq forces (militias) that are effective.

Are we trying to make something work that is not workable?  The only way to hold Iraq together seems to be through a brutal dictatorship, a conclusion "we" do not like.  So it seems like it is past time to let Iraq divided into three countries: Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdistan.

* http://www.ibtimes.com/obama-approval-rating-isis-slides-ground-troops-favored-more-americans-poll-1818610
** http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f5ff39a-2c39-11e4-8eda-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3S1dGTZS2 (A second option would be to create a pan-Arab expeditionary force, one with units from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and possibly Egypt. )

SYRIA VS LIBYA

One hears of dreams that if only we had supported the mob in Syria in the beginning, Assad (a bad dictator to be sure) would have been overthrown and all would be beautiful.

Well, we did provide air cover to the mob in Libya that overthrew Gaddafi and look how things are today - a real mess.  In this case we had most everyone in our favor, the Brits, the Arab league, etc.  Now it looks like rival groups are at war with each other, and we have abandoned our embassy there.  Not quite what we hoped for although Libyans seem to have a high regard for the U.S. (54% in a 2012 Gallop poll).*

We did give at least moral support to the mob that overthrew Mubarak (a U.S. supporter by the way).  Is Egypt now much better off than with Mubarak?  You be the judge.  It may be that Egypt will eventually move toward a real democracy, but there sure are "slips twixt cup and lip."

I'm reminded that, in the Desert Storm war against Saddam Hussein to push him out of Kuwait at the request of Egypt and Saudi Arabia, President G.H.W. Bush did not press the battle to overthrow Saddam because you don't know who will take over.  It could be someone even worse.  True we did sort of think that the generals would push him out.  But the religious and ethnic complexity of Iraq may defy solution without a ruthless dictator.  I guess I belong to a growing number of people who feel we should let Iraq split into their more natural constituencies.  But if we should allow this, I suspect that the Sunni's and Kurds would push ISIL out of their areas.  Whether the Shia could do the same for their area remains to be seen.

And is Mali much better which has been hit by the rebound of the Arab Spring?**  Only Tunisia where the Arab Spring started seems to have some sort of order.***


* I find it a bit disturbing that Gaddafi promised to give up weapons of mass destruction if we stopped working to overthrow him.  He gave up weapons of mass destruction, but we helped overthrow him anyway: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring
** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring
*** http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arezo-yazd/turning-the-tide-three-ye_b_4610148.html