ECONOMiC DOWNTURN IN 2020? AND CONSUMER DEBT - UPDATE

This item amplifies some of the economic problems I see in consumers.  Particularly addressed is credit card debt as well as concerns by CFOs of major companies. (SeeSoybean Socialism, Manufacturing Recession, And Consumer Debt (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2020/01/soybean-socialismmanufacturing.html)  Interestingly,  CFOs say they expect consumer spending to be strong in 2020, but look at the debt consumers are handling.

Expectations for a U.S. downturn have jumped since the beginning of 2019, with 97% of CFOs saying that a downturn (either a slowdown or a recession) has already begun or will occur by the end of 2020. Compare that to 88% who said the same about 2020 in the first quarter of last year.*

43% of CFOs say consumer spending will be strong in 2020, down from the 54% who said the same for 2019. Just 22% expect strong business spending (vs. 32% a year ago).
CFOs said "trade wars" and "uncertainty" are their 2 top company concerns.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)
The figure was taken from AXIOS Item 6. Top executives are pessimistic about 2020 (January 9, 2020)*

There are other indicators used by researchers at MIT that a recession may occur within the next six months:
...the researchers analyzed four market factors — industrial production, nonfarm payrolls, stock market return and the slope of the yield curve — on a monthly basis. They then measured how the current relationship between the four metrics compares to historical readings.*
A recession is expected whenever the indicator rises above 70 and currently reads 76.*

I keep writing about consumer debt being at an all-time high.  In spite of this, FICO Scores are at an all-time high.**  There are several articles about credit card debt by states.***  I don't know why but different references give different conclusions as to which state has the lowest credit card balance.  The CNBC reference says it is Iowa at $4,774 (but Value Penquin and Business Insider give Iowa as $6,696 in credit card debt).  Business Insider gives the lowest Credit Card debt to be Ohio at $5,560 and Value Penquin gives Ohio as $5,446.  CNBC indicates all the states with the lowest credit card debt are the Southern States (7 out of 10) with a few Purple States (3 out of 10).

ValuePenguin found that more than 40% of all US households carry credit card debt, with the average American household carrying a balance of $5,700. For only indebted households, which excludes people who pay their balances in full every month, the average debt is $9,333. [!]
.............................................................
Households with the lowest net worth (zero or negative) hold an average of $10,308 in credit card debt. [!]

Note added February 7: Though jobs are plentiful, the quality of the jobs seems to be declinging.  See figure.****
Since 1990, America has cumulatively added some 20 million low-quality jobs, versus around 12 million high-quality ones. In short, the US economy has shifted toward creating more bad jobs than good.****

(Click on figure to enlarge)

* https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-9a1d5199-5f02-4934-9d9f-46789d902fbe.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/70percent-chance-of-recession-in-next-six-months-study-from-mit-and-state-street-finds.html
**https://www.cnbc.com/select/average-fico-score-hits-record-high-703/
*** https://www.cnbc.com/select/average-credit-card-balance-by-state/
https://www.businessinsider.com/average-credit-card-debt-in-every-state-ranked-2018-8
https://www.valuepenguin.com/average-credit-card-debt
**** https://qz.com/1752676/the-job-quality-index-is-the-economic-indicator-weve-been-missing/