WAGE GAINS, HOME SALES AND THE ECONOMY

In an article from CNBC, worker wages are "keeping up with inflation and then some."*  In December the wage gain was 1.3% and in January it was 1.7%. (see figure).  The top earners are doing even better.**  However, consumer debt has topped $4 trillion, including card debt over $1 trillion, both records.

(Click on the figure to enlarge)

While wages and earnings by the wealthy go up, it appears that retail sales are declining.***  In addition, home sales have been declining.  January showed the lowest home sales in three years.***
There is some optimism, however, that housing sales may be picking up based on lower mortgage rates and slower increases in the cost of homes; however, they are still lower than a year ago.****

But is the economy really all that good?  The Federal Reserve has stopped raising rates for the time being.   Also, it has stopped shrinking its balance sheet.  The Philadelphia Fed showed a decline in manufacturing of -0.4.%  This is the first negative number since 2016.
"The loss of economic momentum appears to have carried over into the first quarter. In light of both a quiescent inflation backdrop and a projected downshift in GDP, imply an increased likelihood that the Fed's next move in interest rates is lower," wrote Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/bad-bunch-of-economic-data-is-not-good-news-for-stocks-with-the-fed-already-on-hold.html

GDP gains of 3% seem to be already in the past in spite of the big business tax cut and no economists are predicting such high numbers - 2% or even lower are what is being forecast.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/worker-wage-gains-are-keeping-up-with-inflation-and-then-some.html?forYou=true
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/wages
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/10/heres-how-much-money-the-1-percent-really-make.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/consumer-debt-hits-4-trillion.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/25/goldman-says-the-us-economy-has-sharply-decelerated-but-these-stocks-can-still-do-well.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/existing-home-sales-january.html

**** https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/21/slowest-home-sales-in-over-three-years-could-help-buyers-this-spring.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/27/pending-home-sales-rebound-4point6-percent-in-january.html

Also see: https://www.paycor.com/resource-center/minimum-wage-by-state-and-2018-increases