Tuesday, November 27, 2018

CAN DEMOCRATS WIN 60 MORE SEATS TO THE HOUSE THAN REPUBLICANS?

There is a bias toward the Republican party because of sparsely settled rural America has a disproportionate number of spots in Congress.  Even then they have to do voter suppression to win in many places.  But for Representatives, gerrymandering is also in Republican favor.

An organization called FiveThirtyEight apparently forecast the House of Representative's outcome in 2018 dead on at again for the Democrats of 39 seats.  Incidentally, they forecast that the probability of the Democrats gaining 63 was 0.8%.
(click on figure to enlarge)

OK so here it is.  In 2010 Republicans got 6.7% more votes than Democrats and won 63 more Representative seats than the Democrats.  In 2018 Democrats got more than 8% more votes than the Republicans and won 40 (max.) more seats than the Republicans.  In other words, with a smaller margin of votes than the Democrats, Republicans won 23-24 more seats in the House than the Democrats.

Democrats probably cannot win 60 more seats in the House than the Republicans.  There are people who play with the numbers and, as I recall, Democrats would have to win something like 30% more of the votes to win 60 seats in the house.

* https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

No comments:

Post a Comment