"The declining birth rates sweeping across America are going to have a profound [e]ffect on many businesses — some in the immediate term and others 5 to 10 years out," Jason Dorsey, president of the Center for Generational Kinetics, told CNBC via email. "The reason is that declining birth rates hit the obvious group of businesses first: diaper makers, toy makers, kids meals at restaurants, car seat manufacturers and the like."*
.........................................................
The U.S. has experienced birth-rate declines before. The longest period of continuous decline on record happened between 1958 and 1968, according to the CDC.
As the figure shows, the decline in birthrate has been going on for a long time.** Even the Baby Boom did not approach the birthrates seen near the turn of the Twentieth Century.
.... the decline in fertility has been far greater among minorities than among non-Hispanic whites. If we take age-specific birth rates from the peak-fertility year of 2007 and apply them to each age cohort in 2008-2016, the most recent complete data, we can create a counterfactual scenario of how many babies would have been born if age-adjusted fertility rates had not fallen after 2007. From 2008 to 2016, the deficit turns out to be between 4.1 and 4.6 million missing babies: basically, an entire year’s worth or more of childbearing vanished.***
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/18/more-pain-for-companies-that-make-baby-products-as-us-births-hit-low.html
** https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/05/17/real-time-economics-the-baby-bust-standing-firm-on-china-u-s-manufacturing-productivity-gains-are-abysmal/?guid=BL-REB-38485&mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1&dsk=y
*** https://ifstudies.org/blog/baby-bust-fertility-is-declining-the-most-among-minority-women
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-20/the-consequences-of-the-u-s-baby-bust
No comments:
Post a Comment