Monday, January 25, 2016

BULLS AND BEARS ON THE STOCK MARKETS

Saul Williams of Motley Fool has a very nice article on Bull and Bear markets.*  A few excerpts are below.  He also present two figures from Yardeni Research that show the details of the figure reproduced below that show the details. I recommend you read the full article.  How long the current downturn occurs and how deep it ends up going remains to be seen, of course.  The beginning of it is unique.

...between 1965 and the end of 2015 the S&P 500 underwent 27 corrections of 10% or more (numbers were rounded to the nearest integer). 
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...we spend more time in rising markets than we do during periods of correction. This is more of an extension of the prior point that corrections, while not uncommon, tend to happen quickly and be over with. Only with rare exception (the 2000-2002 correction, which lasted 915 days, and the 2007-2009 correction, which went on for 510 days) do corrections last a prolonged period of time.

But here's the most important thing to note: The S&P 500 reclaimed the lost value in every single instance involving a correction of 10% or more. That's 27 corrections of at least 10% (again, rounded up) since 1987, and every single one of those corrections wiped out by a bullish rally at some point. Sometimes it takes just weeks to wipe out the effects of a correction, or as you can see with the dot-com bubble of 2000, it took a good seven years for long-term investors to be vindicated once more.
(Click on figure to enlarge)

* http://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2016/01/18/the-only-chart-that-matters-during-a-stock-market.aspx

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