Tuesday, October 6, 2015

ARE STOCK BUYBACKS WORTH IT?

I have long been against stock buybacks by companies except in the most unusual cases.  I feel companies do this because they have nothing better to do with the money.  I don't understand why they don't just give a special dividend.  As it is, I believe stock buybacks are a huge waste of money.  I personally know of no company that is buyback stocks with flat or declining earning that have a positive return after stock buybacks.  I might say that in case I am wrong, I have bought an ETF that invests in companies doing stock buybacks.  Currently this fund is down 4.88%, although it was positive earlier in the year.  There are analyses now coming out questioning the value of stock buybacks and that they are "returning value to the investor" (see excerpts from the article in italics).  You are urged to read the whole article.

In 2014, buybacks represented 2.9% of the S&P 500 Index’s market capitalization. When this distribution of cash is added to the 1.9% dividend yield of the S&P 500, it produces a dividend-plus-buyback yield of 4.8%. For yield-thirsty investors, this combination appears to be an oasis in the capital market desert. To be that oasis, however, buybacks must not be diluted by net new issuance.
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Dilution of earnings can also occur because a company issues debt, funneling earnings away from dividend payments to shareholders and toward principle and interest payments to the company’s lenders. Aggregate net debt issuance by public companies was $693 billion in 2014, almost equivalent to the $696 billion of buybacks in the same year. Our analysis of U.S. publicly held companies’ cash flow statements for the 2014 fiscal year reveals a similar story: often a company’s repurchase of its stock was accompanied by a net increase in debt.
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The dilution rate for the U.S. equity market in 2014 was 1.8%, equivalent to roughly $454 billion. Companies thus issued significantly more shares than they repurchased. The historical rate of dilution, 1.7%, for the 80-year period from 1935 to 2014. The 2014 dilution rate of 1.8% for U.S. equity market investors, in aggregate, was essentially the same. We find no evidence of a reduction in net dilution coincidental with the recent increase in buybacks.
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Alas, like the cool pool of water shimmering on the desert horizon that turns out to be only the refraction of light from blue sky onto hot sand, the 4.8% dividend-plus-buyback yield in the U.S. equity market is a cruel mirage. The reality is that publicly traded companies in the United States are issuing far more new securities than they are buying back, diluting existing investors’ ownership and reducing growth in earnings and dividends per share well below the growth of their reported profits. There is, in fact, no net transfer of cash from the coffers of U.S. corporations to the wallets of U.S. equity investors

* http://www.barrons.com/articles/are-stock-buybacks-an-oasis-or-a-mirage-1443805658?tesla=y&mod=djemb_dr_h

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