Thursday, September 19, 2013

WHAT INDUSTRIES GET HOTTER?


Back when the calendar turned 1990, there was a rash of activity on what will the new millennium bring. I felt I couldn't even project the 1990s much less the next century; however, I was invited to participate in one on geology.

I thought back to 1890. Suppose I lived then, what would I have guessed? After all X-rays and the atomic nucleus were yet to be discovered. Radioactivity had only been discovered 5 yrs before. What I decided was that I should think of problems I would like to see solved and chances are in the next 110 years, something will turn up to solve them. For example, what the age of the Earth is was still a hot topic in 1890. Radioactivity solved this question, albeit well into the 20th century,  and it is a problem no more. Well here goes with three suggestions of hot industries for the future:

Railway Tank Cars. It looks like the Keystone XL pipeline will not be built although it is the cleanest and least expensive way to bring oil down from Canada and South Dakota. Through twisted logic environmentalists oppose the pipeline and lobbying by Saudi Arabia (our 2nd largest importer after Canada) seem to have killed it. So it will apparently have to be brought down by railway. What is the railroad most likely to benefit from this - BNSF. Unfortunately this company is wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway.

So what about railway tank cars. The order backlog is immense. Various producing and refining companies are buying their own tank cars. A favorite of mine is Valero Energy (VLO) though we currently do not own any stock in it.  It is also one of the only refiners to be able to handle sour oil. They have ordered 2,000 tankers as has Phillips 66. Greenbrier Companies (GBX) has orders for 1,250 tankers. They also have orders for over a billion dollars of railway cars (tankers plus others). They are a small cap company selling near their 52-week high of $25.33 but earlier this year, you could have bought the stock for $17/sh. They are currently experiencing a loss of earnings. They pay no dividend so by my own rule at age 82, I cannot buy them.

Well, Googling the topic turned up five companies (http://wire.kapitall.com/investment-idea/tank-car-manufactur...) Of course do your own due dillegence before investing in any of these.

Next up is Robotics. Yes, robotics are making the news, and you can find all sorts of places to buy materials to make your own robots. But, ladies and gentlemen, the robot revolution is only starting. You ain't seen nothing yet. So lets look at 10 companies (http://www.fastcompany.com/most-innovative-companies/2013/in...). And if you Google this, you will come up with -- Google and their automated car which is not even in production yet. I believe this field will become so big that it can even move a stock like Google (again no dividends). And don't forget robotic surgery and military uses that have already begun but I expect to grow substantially.  As before, do your own due diligence.

And I wouldn't discount Solyndra. What, you say? Solyndra went bankrupt year's ago and was a big waste of government investment. Maybe so, but they are still in business as 360 Degree Solar Holdings (SOLY:US). The advantage of this technique is that it doesn't use solar glass. They were put out of business by China slashing the price of solar glass that served one nice purpose. Photovolaics are dropping in price and my guess is that electricity production by this means is only in its infancy. Even if you don't like Solyndra, here are companies involved (mostly foreign): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-22/solyndra-wins-court-approval-of-bankruptcy-exit-plan.html Here are three suggestions of solar energy companies: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-20/trina-joins-sunpower-and-jinko-in-solar-turnararound.html (Note: Solyndra is # 13 among thin film producers.) I expect that some year, solar panel will be the common form of roofing.  Before investing in any of these companies, do your own diligence, of course.

Well, I'm exhausted, kiddies, and I can't get involved in any of these at age 82, but maybe some of you whippersnappers can take a chance, so enjoy!

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