EGYPT: THE STRUGGLES TO COME

So the dictator of Egypt has been overthrown. Dictators have to be sure that the military is on his side, which didn't happen. As difficult as that was, the most difficult part is yet to come. Did the military want to take over and used the demonstrations as an excuse? For the time being, the military is in charge, but will the military turn the country to democracy after a suitable period ? After all, Mubarak originally said he would only stay for two terms, but he got to like it and overstayed his welcome. But the difficult road to democracy is just one of the questions.

A really big question is the matter of food. It appears that Egypt overall imports more than half of the food consumed. The only crop in which Egypt is self sufficient is rice, but wheat is the main staple for Egyptians and they import most of it. At one time they were self sufficient in agriculture, but rapid overpopulation has destroyed that. (http://countrystudies.us/egypt/84.htm). It will not be easy to become self sufficient again because rain-watered land is non-existent in Egypt with the "wettest" areas averaging only 2-in./yr of precipitation. Thus agriculture must be concentrated near the Nile or, in some case, near artisan aquifers. It is considered possible to increase the amount of reclaimed agricultural land and perhaps decrease the need for so much imported foods. About a third of the Egyptian workforce is devoted to agriculture.

Egypt recently has become an oil importing country; however, they have plenty of natural gas, some of which they are exporting and are trying to build up their natural gas industry. If there was peace in the Middle East, Egypt could do much more exporting by pipeline, but that is not the case and is unlikely to be the case in the foreseeable future.

A major part of the Egyptian economy revolves around cotton, including making cloth and finished goods, like clothing. This field has been hurt by the global recession.

Tourism is another major industry in Egypt and has been a major employer too. I suspect, however, that tourism will be hurt, perhaps severely, until a stable and friendly government is in place which may take a lot of time.

All in all, the future looks grim to me; however, if you read the writeup in Wikipedia, you could get the idea that things were pretty well under control with plans for improvements: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Egypt though the official unemployment is said to be around 11%. We were told during the demonstrations, however, that the unemployment of younger workers is about 25% which was one cause of the revolution so we shall see.