WHICH ELECTED REPUBLICANS ARE FOR AMERICA?

Although I can name many Republicans in non-elected positions who are for America (Dep. Attorney Gen. Rob Rosenstein, Dir. DNI Dan Coasts, Sec. James Mattis, FBI Director Christopher Wray, a new name to me Head Of The National Security Agency Gen Paul Nakasone, among others), I really can't name many Republican elected politicians.  Then some appointed politicians seem to be for America some of the time.  For example, Kirstjen Michele Nielsen of homeland security joined the group of national security members to warn of a severe Russian threat to our national security.   Most of the time, however, she goes along with the administration, e.g. the immigration children separation, etc.  Perhaps she felt safe in a group.

Note added August 6th:  I should mention that John McCain is for America though he is unable to vote anymore because of his cancer.  He has been a beam of truth in a cloud of despair.

Though I can't find any elected Republicans that are consistently for America with the possible exception of Maine Sen. Susan Collins, some seem to be for America some of the time, i.e. Alaska Sen.  Lisa Murkowski and South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham.  Some others, for examples, Bob Corker, Jeff Flake, and Orin Hatch, who are not seeking reelection, often come out with pro-America statements, though they too knuckle under in certain cases.  On occasion Paul Ryan says things that are pro-America, he has done nothing to roping in Russia asset  DevenNunes.  He also seems to be ineffective on the House Freedom Caucus.  When he decided not to run for office again, maybe he should have just retired.  I'm not sure because his replacement might be even worse.

When Trump was elected, the Republican Party ceased to be one that talked about individual liberties and upward mobility. Being a Republican in the Trump era meant excusing racially insensitive remarks made by the president, dismissing hush payments made to porn actresses, and condemning serious investigations into Trump’s attempts to obstruct other investigations. The party of individual responsibility packed its bags and left for a bellicose strongman who promised to care for all of Americans’ needs through the sheer force of his personality.*

Though Bob Corker said he would not vote for a funding bill that had a dime of the deficit, he ended up signing the government tax-cut funding bill that had a trillion dollars or so in deficit.  He claimed it was possible that the economy would grow so much as to balance out.  Well, that's optimism for. you.  When news media called him on this, he claimed the media to be unfair.

There has been lots of attack on Peter Strzok by Republicans for sending anti-Trump text messages to a woman friend.  Though he won't say, my guess is that he votes Republican though he may not have voted for Donald Trump.  I once said I thought that 90% of military officers are Republican and some of my military friends said they thought I was too conservative.  The FBI is a quasi-military organization so I presume, like the military, 90% of FB{I agents are Republican.  In fact, many FBI agents come from the military.  While I think that Strzok wasn't biased in his duties, he deserves some sort of reprimand or even firing for using government property for personal conversations.

* https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/04/11/house-speaker-paul-ryan-retires-republican-party-congress-column/507130002/

AGRICULTURAL SOCIALISM

Americas Global Tariff War is gradually taking hold.  The problem with most (wheat and frozen potatoes excepted) agricultural products is that tariffs are hurting American farmers a lot. The effect on soybeans has been well documented.*  The price of pork has suffered also because of 20% tariffs imposed by Mexico and China.**  The latest to suffer is apparently chicken farmers.  The problem is such that the President has proposed a $12 billion subsidy to hel[p out the farmers.

The effect of talking about this subsidy is curious.  Farmers said they would rather compete than have a subsidy to help alleviate the problems of our Global Tariff War.  Now think about that a minute.  Aren't there lots of farm subsidies already?  Yes, about 39% of farmers receive some subsidy from the Federal government, mainly to what is called agribusiness:
The federal government spends more than $20 billion a year on subsidies for farm businesses. About 39 percent of the nation's 2.1 million farms receive subsidies, with the lion's share of the handouts going to the largest producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice.***
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Agriculture has long attracted federal support. The Morrill Act of 1862 established the land-grant colleges to teach agriculture and other subjects. The Hatch Act of 1887 funded agricultural research, and the Smith-Lever Act of 1914 funded agricultural education. The Federal Farm Loan Act of 1916 created cooperative banks to provide loans to farmers. That developed into today's Farm Credit System, which is a government-sponsored financial system with more than $280 billion in assets***.
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Between the 1940s and the 1980s, Congress considered farm policy reforms occasionally, usually when commodity prices were high, but then reverted to subsidy expansions when prices were lower.³ In the 1980s the Reagan administration proposed cuts to farm subsidies, but farm finances took a bad turn, and that prompted Congress to increase farm aid, not reduce it.***
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In 1996 Congress enacted reforms under the "Freedom to Farm" law, which allowed farmers greater flexibility in planting and increased reliance on market supply and demand. But Congress reversed course in the late 1990s, and it passed a series of supplemental farm subsidy bills. As a result, subsidies over the seven years of the 1996 farm bill ended up costing more than double what had been promised.***
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In 2002 Congress enacted a farm bill that further reversed the 1996 reforms. The law increased projected subsidy payments, added new crops to the subsidy rolls, and created a new price guarantee scheme called the countercyclical program. The 2002 law increased projected farm subsidy payments by 74 percent over 10 years.⁵

In 2008 Congress overrode a presidential veto to enact farm legislation that added further subsidies. The law created a permanent disaster aid program and added a revenue protection program for farmers to lock in profits from high commodity prices. It added a sugar-to-ethanol program to keep sugar prices artificially high, and it added new subsidies for "specialty crops" such as fruits and vegetables.***

Then there is what happened in 2014 that I'll skip.  If you want to know more, please see the reference.   Girls and boys, while farming is still a risky business, farmers are getting lots of subsidies already.  

My guess is that, if once enacted, the $12  billion of farm subsidy to alleviate effects of our Global Tariff War won't go away but will just be more agricultural Socialism going mainly to agribusiness.

*http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/07/not-all-tariffs-are-bad-for-american.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/us-china-trade-war-idaho-may-be-biggest-victim-but-not-for-potatoes.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/trumps-12-billion-aid-for-farmers-risks-unintended-consequences.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/tariffs-are-about-to-hit-consumers-and-it-wont-be-pretty.htm
** https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/mexico-will-impose-20-percent-tariffs-u-s-pork-n880176
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/pig-farmers-hope-chinas-tariff-us-pork-short-lived
*** https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/agriculture/subsidiesl

INVESTORS CONTINUE SWITCHING FROM STOCKS INTO BONDS

Back in April, I published a piece on how money is being pulled from stocks and put into bonds, mainly short-term Treasuries and municipal bonds.*

Now on July 28, the WSJ has published another article on Stock Outflows Swell in Flight For Safety (page B 11). Of greatest interest to me, however, is the figure from the front page of the Journal showing the trend in two-year Treasuries this year.

(Click on figure to enlarge.  Figure from the Wall Street Journal, July 27, 2018)



One thing that is spooking the stock markets is the American Global War of tariffs America has initiated.  Incidentally, this climb in interest on two-year treasuries is not repeated for the 10-year Treasuries, which have remained flat at just under 3%.  This has caused a flattening of the yield curve that is sometimes a forerunner of a stock-market correction.

The current article in the WSJ includes a paragraph:
Nearly $20 billion was pulled from long-term mutual funds and exchange-traded funds focused on large-cap stocks in June, handing those funds their biggest month of outflows in at least a decade, according to data provider Morningstar LLC. Outflows across the stock market have continued into July, though the pace has slowed.  (I have been unable to find this article online either by Googling it or searching for it in the WSJ online.  This quote is taken from the facsimile edition of the July 28, 2018, WSJ)

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/04/investors-are-changing-from-stocks-to.html

LATEST NEWS ON AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES -July 2018

While autonomous vehicles are a hot topic, new regular cars are drifting toward automation.  My daughter-in-law bought a Honda Accord a few months ago and in country driving, you can take your hands off the steering wheel on roads where there is a center line and the car will stay in the center of your lane (Lane Keeping Assist System).  If you steer the car a bit off center, it will correct to the proper place.  It will also adjust if approaching a slow or stopped vehicle (Collision Mitigation Braking System).

A big problem with current autonomous vehicles is roads that are unmarked and without detailed maps.  Therefore the concentration on development, for now, is on cities where there are detailed maps.  But the problems of driving on unmarked roads are being worked on.*  This is using GPS location and road recognition.

In contrast, MapLite uses sensors for all aspects of navigation, relying on GPS data only to obtain a rough estimate of the car’s location. The system first sets both a final destination and what researchers call a “local navigation goal,” which has to be within view of the car. Its perception sensors then generate a path to get to that point, using LIDAR to estimate the location of the road’s edges. MapLite can do this without physical road markings by making basic assumptions about how the road will be relatively more flat than the surrounding areas.*

I think all the major automobile companies and some not so well known ones have plans for autonomous driving.**

Most advanced seems to be Alphabet Inc. Waymo.

(Reuters) - Alphabet Inc’s Waymo is starting trials to ferry shoppers to Walmart Inc’s stores in Phoenix, Arizona, the company said on Wednesday.
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Having worked on self-driving cars since 2009 and with 5 million miles (8 million km) driven on public roads under its belt, Waymo is generally considered to be ahead of rivals in the development of autonomous vehicle technology.**

Uber, which appeared to be advanced until the death of a pedestrian is scheduling to restart tests according to a July 24th article by Aarian Marshall in Wired.

Until today, when self-driving chief Eric Meyhofer announced in a blog post that Uber would return its self-driving cars to the roads in Pittsburgh. With a catch. For now, the vehicles will stay in manual (human-driven) mode, simply collecting data for training and mapping purposes. To prep for the tech’s return to the public space, Uber has undertaken a wholesale “safety review”, with the help of former National Transportation Safety Board chair and aviation expert Christopher Hart.

* http://news.mit.edu/2018/self-driving-cars-for-country-roads-mit-csail-0507
** https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-consolidates-self-driving-activities-plans-to-invest-4-billion-1532448641
*** https://www.reuters.com/article/us-waymo-walmart/waymo-self-driving-cars-to-ferry-walmart-shoppers-in-arizona-trial-idUSKBN1KF1OB

https://www.wired.com/story/self-driving-crash-uber-revamps-testing/

NOT ALL TARIFFS ARE BAD FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS

The disaster for the American soybean farmers is well known.  Because of tariffs enacted by China, the price of American grown soybeans has plummeted* so if you love soybeans, this is your chance to eat heartily at little cost.

Less well known is the effect of record production and tariffs on American grown meat of all kinds.  The figure shows that American produced meats in storage are at an all-time high, more than 2.5 billion pounds.**  Both China (now 68% tariff) and Mexico (20% tariff) have put duties on pork but the figure seems to show the width of the pork band in the figure to be pretty constant.  Some weeks the USDA reports zero exports of pork.  Chickens, however, in storage are definitely higher.  The width of the beef band is also increasing.  Turkey in storage bounces around greatly but currently is near an all-time high.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

For now, American cold storage facilities are trying to find ways to store more meat including building new facilities.  I conclude we should start seeing some very good deals on meats at the supermarkets.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/07/economy-tariffs-and-stock-markets.html
** https://www.wsj.com/articles/meat-piles-up-as-production-grows-and-exports-slow-1532268000?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2

WHAT HAPPENED TO OUR ALPHA-MALE PRESIDENT?

At first, I wondered what all the fuss was about President's regarding Donald Trump's obsequious behavior toward President Putin because I thought he only said things he had been saying for some time.

I guess the reason was that people were expecting someone who pretends to be an alpha-male around women - like Theresa May and Angela Merkel (who lived in East Germany during the Soviet occupation) - to put up a strong front with Putin at Helsinki on an international stage.

Those who admire Trump will say, I suppose, that he is only trying to make friends with Putin and point to some strong stances he has taken against Russia like arms for Ukraine and expelling a lot of Russian employees from the U.S.  They also give him credit for a number of sanctions; however, these were passed by Congress, and he was slow to apply the round since he became president.  At any rate, Trump cannot repeal Congressionally passed sanctions by himself.

I don't know what is the proper thing to do in Ukraine.  Obama didn't want to arm them because he thought that Russia could escalate the war to match them.  So this war has dragged on.  I don't know if arming the Ukrainians changes things much.  I guess the idea is that if the Ukrainians are armed more, Russia will not want to pay the price.  We will see.  The politics of Ukraine is so corrupt, that I doubt they deserve to remain a nation.*

At any rate, I have nothing against President Trump trying to have friendly relations with Putin.  After all, others have tried (such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Obama administration) to do so.  I don't know how you can go about this after so many failures (Most of the 1970s were called a detente with the Soviet Union.  They even awarded me a science prize.).  My own impression is that the Russians and particularly Putin admire strength.  A trick might be for our president to show strength in a friendly way.  It doesn't seem like our President Trump can find the way.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/03/ukraine-failed-state.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/03/ukraine-politics.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-breadbasket-of-europe-is-now-basket.html

DOES THE AMERICAN TRANSLATOR AT HELSINKI HAVE PROTECTION?

After the Helsinki meeting between President Trump and President Putin, I feared for the life of the American translator who was the only other American in the room with Trump, Putin, and the Russian translator.  I hoped she was under some protection.

It turns out, however, that these translators make a report based on their notes and memory and present it to the president, so there is some sort of record of the meeting.  As the American translator no doubt has already made the report, perhaps there is some cover for her.