Wednesday, November 11, 2015
WAR
I have written before that , if I had to summarize my life in one word, it would be WAR. We used to have a break between wars: WW-I to WW-II, WW-II and Korea, Korea and Vietnam, Vietnam and 9/11.. But now it seems to be a continuum where there is a short period of a lowered war effort (like now) only to shortly have a resurgence, and we seem to be seeing the early stages of escalation now from a president who vowed to end our wars. Both Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham are proposing we need to go back to major war in the Middle East to defeat ISIS. Actually this is an odd view where there is a split in the Republican Party because Rand Paul and Donald Trump are agin' it. I wonder what historians will eventually say about this period? Perhaps it will be called the 30 Years War or maybe 50 Years War. I don't know. So how long can we stay at war when only about 1% of the population does the fighting, but the costs of the war are done on borrowed money. Will it eventually lead to the destruction of America as a Great Power?
Monday, November 9, 2015
BEN CARSON
In my own case, I have long and faulty memories of my youth. The most common thing is to remember an event happening at a younger age than it really did, but even on something like the Pearl Harbor attack, my memory isn't quite right. The way I remember it, we were playing the card game hearts late on the Sunday afternoon of December 7th when news came over the radio that the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. When I moved last time, I ran across a theme On the Pearl Harbor attack I had written for school and in that I wrote that I had just come in from playing my favorite game of Kick The Can when my late brother told me the Japanese attached Pearl Harbor. I'm sure we did play Hearts that afternoon and no doubt there was more news on the attack, but my memory was faulty.
So I guess I don't fault Ben Carson for saying he got an offer to go to West Point with a full scholarship. After he was told by a couple of people that they could get him this, and maybe they could, but it wasn't an offer from West Point. Believe me, many are led to think they could get into West Point and few succeed. It happened in my extended family.
For some people, actual life is not exciting enough and they have to embellish it. This was true of Joe Biden, and I am glad he is not running for president again and subject his "faulty" memory to us, yet again
But Carson's "faulty" memory is a key to his success as a candidate because it makes him a great redemption story "I once was lost but now am found." It also could be that Evangelicals view Carson's surgical career to be Christ-like. These aspects give him an edge over another super-Evangelical Mike Huckabee who actually won Iowa in the 2008 Presidential election. St. Paul had the greatest redemption story in that he converted from being a persecutor of Christians to the greatest proponent for Christianity and has at least seven books in the New Testament.**
I'm more concerned by Dr. Carson's "belief" that the pyramids were built by the biblical figure Joseph to store grain against a seven-year famine he said coming. There is probably reasonable proof that Joseph existed,* and he may well have warned about a coming famine, maybe even that it would last for 7 yrs. But the facts are that the pyramids were built as graves and were not really suitable to store grain.
And this is a problem with so-called Evangelicals. If you believe that Jesus fed the multitudes with five loaves of bread and two fishes you can believe anything and the facts be (expletive). What the true meaning of this parable is, is unclear to me, but it appears in four books of the bible. It also seems to be an embellishment of an earlier parable from Elisha in the Old Testament book of Kings who fed 100 men with 20 leaves of bread. Perhaps the meaning is that Jesus was the true representative of God and not Elisha. Incidentally Elisha also is credited with performing 28 miracles, even more than the 14 credited to Elijah.***
We saw what belief can do with George W. Bush who consulted with a "higher power" over going to war with Iraq, though just last night I heard that he had consulted with his father who supported him (in an interview of John Meacham by George W. Bush). It appears from evidence by George H.W. Bush that he did not try to dissuade his son from going to war in Iraq. But this doesn't mean that Dubya didn't consult a "higher power." We were very lucky with Ronald Reagan that he didn't get us into more terrible situations than he did as he also had strange beliefs like we are in the "end times." Thus we have the belief among Evangelicals of such things as we can use the atmosphere as an infinite sewer where we can dump all the pollutants we want with no consequences.
But it remains to be seen whether Ben Carson can bully the press into subjection.
* http://www.slideshare.net/insightgirl/did-joseph-really-exist
** On a journey, St. Paul suffered sun stroke and could not see for three days, but this was accompanied by an epiphany and conversion to Christianity. He then promoted Christianity with the fervor that he had previously used to oppress them. This fervor was of the nature of "there is no sinner like a converted sinner," but he was very convincing.
*** http://www.bcbsr.com/survey/eli.html
So I guess I don't fault Ben Carson for saying he got an offer to go to West Point with a full scholarship. After he was told by a couple of people that they could get him this, and maybe they could, but it wasn't an offer from West Point. Believe me, many are led to think they could get into West Point and few succeed. It happened in my extended family.
For some people, actual life is not exciting enough and they have to embellish it. This was true of Joe Biden, and I am glad he is not running for president again and subject his "faulty" memory to us, yet again
But Carson's "faulty" memory is a key to his success as a candidate because it makes him a great redemption story "I once was lost but now am found." It also could be that Evangelicals view Carson's surgical career to be Christ-like. These aspects give him an edge over another super-Evangelical Mike Huckabee who actually won Iowa in the 2008 Presidential election. St. Paul had the greatest redemption story in that he converted from being a persecutor of Christians to the greatest proponent for Christianity and has at least seven books in the New Testament.**
I'm more concerned by Dr. Carson's "belief" that the pyramids were built by the biblical figure Joseph to store grain against a seven-year famine he said coming. There is probably reasonable proof that Joseph existed,* and he may well have warned about a coming famine, maybe even that it would last for 7 yrs. But the facts are that the pyramids were built as graves and were not really suitable to store grain.
And this is a problem with so-called Evangelicals. If you believe that Jesus fed the multitudes with five loaves of bread and two fishes you can believe anything and the facts be (expletive). What the true meaning of this parable is, is unclear to me, but it appears in four books of the bible. It also seems to be an embellishment of an earlier parable from Elisha in the Old Testament book of Kings who fed 100 men with 20 leaves of bread. Perhaps the meaning is that Jesus was the true representative of God and not Elisha. Incidentally Elisha also is credited with performing 28 miracles, even more than the 14 credited to Elijah.***
We saw what belief can do with George W. Bush who consulted with a "higher power" over going to war with Iraq, though just last night I heard that he had consulted with his father who supported him (in an interview of John Meacham by George W. Bush). It appears from evidence by George H.W. Bush that he did not try to dissuade his son from going to war in Iraq. But this doesn't mean that Dubya didn't consult a "higher power." We were very lucky with Ronald Reagan that he didn't get us into more terrible situations than he did as he also had strange beliefs like we are in the "end times." Thus we have the belief among Evangelicals of such things as we can use the atmosphere as an infinite sewer where we can dump all the pollutants we want with no consequences.
But it remains to be seen whether Ben Carson can bully the press into subjection.
* http://www.slideshare.net/insightgirl/did-joseph-really-exist
** On a journey, St. Paul suffered sun stroke and could not see for three days, but this was accompanied by an epiphany and conversion to Christianity. He then promoted Christianity with the fervor that he had previously used to oppress them. This fervor was of the nature of "there is no sinner like a converted sinner," but he was very convincing.
*** http://www.bcbsr.com/survey/eli.html
Thursday, November 5, 2015
DEATH RATES 2015
Addiction is becoming a political issue. Chris Cristie, Governor of New Jersey and Republican Presidential candidate, recently gave an impassioned speak on addiction.* I might add that among the addictions sweeping this country is gambling and I feel the question in the recent Republican debate on Fantasy Football was quite legitimate and should be taken seriously.** Addictions, especially pain killers and alcohol, are resulting in increased death rates particularly of whites in the age range of 45 to 54. Among industrialized countries, this mortality problem seems to be uniquely American (see figure). See quotes in italics and figure from an article on the subject below:
The death rate among middle-aged white Americans has soared in recent years, driven by an epidemic of prescription drug overdoses, as well as rising liver disease and suicide, according to a new report from economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton at Princeton University.***
.............................................................
As their paper shows, the surge in death rates is highly concentrated among whites ages 45 to 54 with a high school education or less; death rates have dropped for the college educated and Hispanics. The overall death rate among blacks is higher than among whites, but has declined over the past 15 years. In 1999, blacks were more likely to die from drug overdoses. Today, whites are.***
..............................................................
In other words, prescription drug addictions may be causing economic challenges by depressing labor-force participation, rather than economic forces like deindustrialization causing prescription-drug addictions. But either way, an urgent health and economic crisis is at hand.***
(Click on figure to enlarge)
* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chris-christie-drug-addiction-treatment_56327ee9e4b0c66bae5bc0f3
** http://www.addiction.com/4356/fantasy-football-addiction/
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/03/the-economic-roots-of-the-climbing-death-rate-for-middle-aged-whites/?mod=djemRTE_h
The death rate among middle-aged white Americans has soared in recent years, driven by an epidemic of prescription drug overdoses, as well as rising liver disease and suicide, according to a new report from economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton at Princeton University.***
.............................................................
As their paper shows, the surge in death rates is highly concentrated among whites ages 45 to 54 with a high school education or less; death rates have dropped for the college educated and Hispanics. The overall death rate among blacks is higher than among whites, but has declined over the past 15 years. In 1999, blacks were more likely to die from drug overdoses. Today, whites are.***
..............................................................
In other words, prescription drug addictions may be causing economic challenges by depressing labor-force participation, rather than economic forces like deindustrialization causing prescription-drug addictions. But either way, an urgent health and economic crisis is at hand.***
* http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/chris-christie-drug-addiction-treatment_56327ee9e4b0c66bae5bc0f3
** http://www.addiction.com/4356/fantasy-football-addiction/
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/11/03/the-economic-roots-of-the-climbing-death-rate-for-middle-aged-whites/?mod=djemRTE_h
Friday, October 30, 2015
THE DO NOTHING SPEAKER GOES
Well I for one do not shed a tear for the retirement of the Speaker of the House Of Representatives John Boehner. What he will go down in history for is presiding over the worst two years of passing bills in the post-WWII history of the House. In 2013, the House only passed 57 bills that became law for the least productive year. My only reserve is that Boehner's replacement might be even worse. Well, lets see what Paul Ryan actually does. Let's be optimistic unless he proves otherwise.
I had hoped that Boehner would have given us a vote on the Senate immigration reform bill, but no luck. It seems Republicans don't want to try to solve the problem but just use immigration as a whipping boy. We are supposed to be happy that he avoided a government shutdown again.
This record was preceded by a number of years that set records for non-productivity at the time since 1947: 2012-61, 2011-90, and 2009-129.* You will note that 2010 is an exception with 258 bills passed which was not a record at the time; however. And so it was during administration of Barack Obama. Some want to blame Obama. He entered the Presidency as a conciliator, but found that, to get 20% of he wanted, he had to give the Republicans 80% of what they wanted. Furthermore the Republicans would then beat Obama over the head with things that he compromised on like delaying the tax increase on the wealthy. Otherwise it was pretty much a slash and burn Congress. For the House record see the Huffington Post article (quotes in italics):*
As 2012 comes to a close, the 112th Congress [Jan. 5 2011-Jan. 3 2012] is set to go down in American history as the most unproductive session since the 1940s.
According to a Huffington Post review of all the bills that hit President Barack Obama's desk this session, Obama has signed 219 bills passed by the 112th Congress into law [Reference two** says 284 total for the two year period]. With less than a week to go in the year, there are currently another 20 bills pending presidential action. In comparison, the last Congress passed 383 bills, while the one before it passed 460. [Note: Reference two** says 385 bills passed.]
The 104th Congress (1995-1996) currently holds the ignominious distinction of being the least productive session of Congress, according to the U.S. House Clerk's Office, which has records going back to 1947. Just 333 bills became law during that two-year period, [Reference two** says 337] *** meaning the 112th Congress needs to send nearly 100 more bills to Obama's desk in the next few days if it wants to avoid going down in history -- an unlikely prospect, considering that both chambers are squarely focused on averting the "fiscal cliff" before the new year.
The 112th Congress has done far less than the 80th Congress (1947-1948), which President Harry Truman infamously dubbed the "Do-Nothing Congress." Those lawmakers passed 906 bills that became law.
The 213th congress (Jan. 3, 2013 to Jan. 02, 2015) was only slightly better than the 212th with 296 bills enacted. They did spend a lot of time passing bills to repeal the so-called Obamacare (the ACA)- 37 times to be exact in an exercise of futility. And most things past were things like naming new post offices and naming special days. I agree that Obamacare could be much improved - single payer for one example rather than the personal mandate, but they didn't even try this.** But the House did not just vote against Obamacare, they didn't vote to replace it with anything. They don't want government sponsored health insurance at all.
And in 2014, the House initiated the fewest bills since at least 1984. Lest you think that President Obama has been vetoing a lot of bills, there were no vetoes in any of these 4 years.
* http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-08-14/unproductive-congress-not-passing-bills/57060096/1
**http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/28/congress-unproductive_n_2371387.html
*** It should be pointed out that even the 385 bills passed by the 111th Congress is probably also a record low up to then because the only two worst numbers were for Congresses in effect for less than two years: the 107 Congress (Jan. 3, 2001-Nov. 22, 2002) and the even shorter 104th Congress (Jan. 4, 1995 - Oct. 4, 1996).
I had hoped that Boehner would have given us a vote on the Senate immigration reform bill, but no luck. It seems Republicans don't want to try to solve the problem but just use immigration as a whipping boy. We are supposed to be happy that he avoided a government shutdown again.
This record was preceded by a number of years that set records for non-productivity at the time since 1947: 2012-61, 2011-90, and 2009-129.* You will note that 2010 is an exception with 258 bills passed which was not a record at the time; however. And so it was during administration of Barack Obama. Some want to blame Obama. He entered the Presidency as a conciliator, but found that, to get 20% of he wanted, he had to give the Republicans 80% of what they wanted. Furthermore the Republicans would then beat Obama over the head with things that he compromised on like delaying the tax increase on the wealthy. Otherwise it was pretty much a slash and burn Congress. For the House record see the Huffington Post article (quotes in italics):*
As 2012 comes to a close, the 112th Congress [Jan. 5 2011-Jan. 3 2012] is set to go down in American history as the most unproductive session since the 1940s.
According to a Huffington Post review of all the bills that hit President Barack Obama's desk this session, Obama has signed 219 bills passed by the 112th Congress into law [Reference two** says 284 total for the two year period]. With less than a week to go in the year, there are currently another 20 bills pending presidential action. In comparison, the last Congress passed 383 bills, while the one before it passed 460. [Note: Reference two** says 385 bills passed.]
The 104th Congress (1995-1996) currently holds the ignominious distinction of being the least productive session of Congress, according to the U.S. House Clerk's Office, which has records going back to 1947. Just 333 bills became law during that two-year period, [Reference two** says 337] *** meaning the 112th Congress needs to send nearly 100 more bills to Obama's desk in the next few days if it wants to avoid going down in history -- an unlikely prospect, considering that both chambers are squarely focused on averting the "fiscal cliff" before the new year.
The 112th Congress has done far less than the 80th Congress (1947-1948), which President Harry Truman infamously dubbed the "Do-Nothing Congress." Those lawmakers passed 906 bills that became law.
The 213th congress (Jan. 3, 2013 to Jan. 02, 2015) was only slightly better than the 212th with 296 bills enacted. They did spend a lot of time passing bills to repeal the so-called Obamacare (the ACA)- 37 times to be exact in an exercise of futility. And most things past were things like naming new post offices and naming special days. I agree that Obamacare could be much improved - single payer for one example rather than the personal mandate, but they didn't even try this.** But the House did not just vote against Obamacare, they didn't vote to replace it with anything. They don't want government sponsored health insurance at all.
And in 2014, the House initiated the fewest bills since at least 1984. Lest you think that President Obama has been vetoing a lot of bills, there were no vetoes in any of these 4 years.
* http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/story/2012-08-14/unproductive-congress-not-passing-bills/57060096/1
**http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/28/congress-unproductive_n_2371387.html
*** It should be pointed out that even the 385 bills passed by the 111th Congress is probably also a record low up to then because the only two worst numbers were for Congresses in effect for less than two years: the 107 Congress (Jan. 3, 2001-Nov. 22, 2002) and the even shorter 104th Congress (Jan. 4, 1995 - Oct. 4, 1996).
Thursday, October 22, 2015
LAYOFFS UP UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DOWN IN 2015
There is a dichotomy going on where layoffs are increasing but new jobless claims continue to decline. The number of jobless claims are now below where they were prior to the "Great Recession." In contrast, job layoffs are up for the 3rd quarter of 2015, but according to the figure below, they are less than before the "Great Recession."
In fact, the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, slipped 2,000 to 263,250 last week, the lowest level since December 1973. * [!]
..................................................
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the average duration of unemployment was 26.3 weeks in September, compared with 31.8 weeks for the same period in 2014.
..................................................
The third quarter of 2015 was the worst in terms of job cuts since the third quarter of 2009, the report found. So far this year, there have been more layoffs announced than in the full year of 2014. (Note: the figure below shows that the job cuts are less than the 3rd quarter of 2011. I do not know the reason for the conflict.)
..................................................
The odds are especially bright for skilled workers, he said. "Skilled workers are the fuel of this economy." says Christopher.
(Click to enlarge)
* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/layoffs-dont-necessarily-spell-trouble-challenger.html
In fact, the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, slipped 2,000 to 263,250 last week, the lowest level since December 1973. * [!]
..................................................
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the average duration of unemployment was 26.3 weeks in September, compared with 31.8 weeks for the same period in 2014.
..................................................
The third quarter of 2015 was the worst in terms of job cuts since the third quarter of 2009, the report found. So far this year, there have been more layoffs announced than in the full year of 2014. (Note: the figure below shows that the job cuts are less than the 3rd quarter of 2011. I do not know the reason for the conflict.)
..................................................
The odds are especially bright for skilled workers, he said. "Skilled workers are the fuel of this economy." says Christopher.
* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/layoffs-dont-necessarily-spell-trouble-challenger.html
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
WAGES IN 2014
The average American took in $44,569.20 last year, according to data released Tuesday by the Social Security Administration. It marks an increase of 3.5 percent from 2013.*
A problem with averages is that the average can be skewed by adding in a few very large number and Median wage is a better measure, i.e. half the workers earned more and half earned less. See the next quote that shows how skewed the average wages are compared to the median:
Still, 67 percent of wage earners made less than or equal to the average. Median compensation came in at $28,851.21 for the year, up from $28,031.02 in 2013. *
The Median Wage is given in the picture below:
(Click to enlarge)
You can see what is skewing the average to the high side from the following quotes:
Wages of those making $20 million to $50 million are graphed below:**
(Click to enlarge)
Though 2012 was the peak year for those making over $50 million (at 166), the general trend is upward from 2010 at 81 vs 134 in 2014. The figure shows, however, that 2014 was the peak year for those making $20 million to $50 million (at 776, close to doubling 2011 at 406).
At the same time there are jobs disappearing. The most in hazard are mail carrier (expected to decrease by 28% by 2022), meter reader and farmer (expected to decrease by 19% by 2022), among others, narrowing job opportunities.***
A problem with averages is that the average can be skewed by adding in a few very large number and Median wage is a better measure, i.e. half the workers earned more and half earned less. See the next quote that shows how skewed the average wages are compared to the median:
Still, 67 percent of wage earners made less than or equal to the average. Median compensation came in at $28,851.21 for the year, up from $28,031.02 in 2013. *
The Median Wage is given in the picture below:
You can see what is skewing the average to the high side from the following quotes:
Wages of those making $20 million to $50 million are graphed below:**
Though 2012 was the peak year for those making over $50 million (at 166), the general trend is upward from 2010 at 81 vs 134 in 2014. The figure shows, however, that 2014 was the peak year for those making $20 million to $50 million (at 776, close to doubling 2011 at 406).
At the same time there are jobs disappearing. The most in hazard are mail carrier (expected to decrease by 28% by 2022), meter reader and farmer (expected to decrease by 19% by 2022), among others, narrowing job opportunities.***
**http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/20/rich-americans-got-a-lot-richer-last-year.html
*** http://www.careercast.com/jobs-rated/most-endangered-jobs-2015
Thursday, October 15, 2015
DEBATE DIFFERENCES
There is a curious difference between the Republican and Democrat debates. Except for John Kasich who is clearly the best qualified person to be president (and look where he is in the polls), Republicans emphasize their lack of qualifications to be president whereas in the recent Democratic debate, every candidate emphasized their qualifications to be president. Frankly I found the latter to be a more satisfying debate.
There seems to be a dichotomy in the response to the Democratic debate whereas all the pundits feel that Hillary was the clear winner whereas focus groups right after the debate favored Bernie Sanders. I think the focus groups much appreciated Bernie Sanders comment that the American people are sick and tired of Hillary's e-mail, and that he wants to discuss the major issues.
Curiously, a number of pundits, including the liberal Mika Brzezinski (who I guess feels she must bend over backwards to be "fair."), said that Bernie flubbed his comment which, they say was actually to be an insult, that if it wasn't for Hillary's personal e-mail server we could be discussing the real issues. I've now listened to Bernie's comment three times, and I believe he said it as he meant to as there was no hesitation in his voice in saying it. And does anyone believe that the Republicans wouldn't find something to assassinate Hillary with if she hadn't done the e-mails on her own server, even if it wasn't true? I'm sure that Bernie's comment the way he said it led to the large influx of donations as I believe that the public is sick and tired of politicians continuously assassinating their competitors.
The media seems to like Marco Rubio among the Republican candidates for president in spite of his stand of no exception to no abortions and a tax plan that favors the rich the most.*
As the candidates plans on the issues come out, it seems that Donald Trump isthe best of a bad lot of Republican candidates (with the exception of John Kasich) in spite of his crazy immigration plan and a tax plan that favors the rich.
* Mr. Rubio, [who was brought up in a family living "paycheck to paycheck'] in New York for fund-raising at the time of the interview, offers an example. He proposes a significant new tax credit for households with children. But he would also cut the top federal income tax rate to 35 percent, from nearly 40 percent, and eliminate levies on capital gains, dividends and multimillion-dollar estates. (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/us/politics/tax-plans-of-gop-favor-the-rich-despite-populist-talk.html?_r=0)
There seems to be a dichotomy in the response to the Democratic debate whereas all the pundits feel that Hillary was the clear winner whereas focus groups right after the debate favored Bernie Sanders. I think the focus groups much appreciated Bernie Sanders comment that the American people are sick and tired of Hillary's e-mail, and that he wants to discuss the major issues.
Curiously, a number of pundits, including the liberal Mika Brzezinski (who I guess feels she must bend over backwards to be "fair."), said that Bernie flubbed his comment which, they say was actually to be an insult, that if it wasn't for Hillary's personal e-mail server we could be discussing the real issues. I've now listened to Bernie's comment three times, and I believe he said it as he meant to as there was no hesitation in his voice in saying it. And does anyone believe that the Republicans wouldn't find something to assassinate Hillary with if she hadn't done the e-mails on her own server, even if it wasn't true? I'm sure that Bernie's comment the way he said it led to the large influx of donations as I believe that the public is sick and tired of politicians continuously assassinating their competitors.
The media seems to like Marco Rubio among the Republican candidates for president in spite of his stand of no exception to no abortions and a tax plan that favors the rich the most.*
As the candidates plans on the issues come out, it seems that Donald Trump isthe best of a bad lot of Republican candidates (with the exception of John Kasich) in spite of his crazy immigration plan and a tax plan that favors the rich.
* Mr. Rubio, [who was brought up in a family living "paycheck to paycheck'] in New York for fund-raising at the time of the interview, offers an example. He proposes a significant new tax credit for households with children. But he would also cut the top federal income tax rate to 35 percent, from nearly 40 percent, and eliminate levies on capital gains, dividends and multimillion-dollar estates. (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/14/us/politics/tax-plans-of-gop-favor-the-rich-despite-populist-talk.html?_r=0)
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