Monday, October 29, 2018

CARAVAN

We are told there is a huge Caravan of Central American people (Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador) coming to the U.S. through Mexico.   How big is huge?  I've seen estimates of 1,500 to 7,000 people.

I've also seen estimates that about 1,500 people have sought asylum in Mexico so far.

The first wave of the Caravan reached the Guatemala-Mexico border on October 19th.*

A Caravan of 5,000 people (WSJ's estimate) is a bad idea.  It is said that they are let into various buildings at night such as auditoriums.  But nobody seems to cover how they are being fed.  Can you call ahead to a McDonalds and order 5,000 Big Macs with Spanish rice and a Coke?  And how long would it take distribute the food?  For example, if they could distribute the food on average for 1 sec. each, it would take 5,000 seconds to distribute the food.  That is 83.33 min. or 1.38 hrs.  And how is this paid for?  It is unbelievable that you could distribute 5,000 Big Macs with rice and a Coke and have the recipient pay for it in a second.  Do all the members have money for this?

Three days ago, it is said that the Caravan is 800 mi, from the U.S.-Mexico border.   If they can average walking 10 mi. a day, it will take 80 days before they arrive at the border which would take them into the next calendar year.  Remember that one of the other bad things about the huge Caravan is that it must move at the rate of its slowest members and one sees small children in the Caravan.  As the days go by, I'm sure that some members give up and try to go home (On a news program I saw a bus that was said to be filled with members going home.).  Others will seek asylum in Mexico that has more lenient criteria than the U.S.  Just how many members of the Caravan will reach the U.S. is unknown.

On the news, you will see trucks loaded with people, maybe 40-50 (As nearly as I can tell, all men.), that can certainly move much faster than the Caravan.  So it is possible that small groups will reach our border with Mexico this year, but does this require Army forces to handle?

Note added 10-30-2018:  The Army is said to be sending 5,200 troops to the border.  It is now only a week until the election.  I wonder whether the order will be rescinded after next Tuesday before the bulk of the forces arrive?

The whole thing is just a political joke made to influence the election in November that many voters will probably take seriously.  Can Trump also really close the border to asylum seekers?**

* https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2018/10/19/mexico-caravan-guatemala-weir-bpr-wolf-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/migrant-caravan/
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/26/asylum-explained-can-trump-shut-down-process-migrant-caravan/1775728002/

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