HOME SALES FALL

Though there are many signs that the economy is on fire, one place that it isn't is in home sales for both existing and new homes.  Several factors may be the cause such as paying off college loans, getting married later, high cost of homes, increasing mortgage payments and perhaps others.  Home sales are having a damping effect on the economy though the economy is very good at present.

Sales of existing homes fell 3.4 percent in September to a 5.15 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Sales are down 4.1 percent from a year ago and 10 percent from the recent peak of 5.72 million in November 2017. Sales declined in three of the four regions tallied: sales fell 3.6 percent for the month in the West and are 12.2 percent below the September 2017 rate; sales declined 2.9 percent in the Northeast, putting sales 5.6 percent below year-ago levels; and sales dropped 5.4 percent in the South, leaving that region's sales rate 0.5 percent below the year-ago pace. Sales were unchanged for the month in the Midwest but remain 1.5 percent below the year-ago level.*

Sales in the market for existing single-family homes, which account for just under 90 percent of total existing-home sales, also fell 3.4 percent in September, coming in at a 4.58 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (see chart). From a year ago, sales are down 4.0 percent. Sales were down across the four regions: sales fell 4.0 percent in the West to 950,000 from 990,000 in the prior month; sales dropped 4.6 percent in the South to 1.86 million; the Northeast saw a 3.4 percent decline; and the Midwest posted a 0.8 percent pullback.*

(Click on figure to enlarge.  Source: https://www.aier.org/article/new-home-sales-fall-again)

New home sales in the South, which accounts for the bulk of transactions, declined 3.3 percent in July. Sales rose 10.9 percent in the West and 9.9 percent in the Midwest. They tumbled 52.3 percent in the Northeast to their lowest level since September 2015.**

The median new house price rose 6.0 percent to $328,700 in July from June. There were 309,000 new homes on the market in July, the most since March 2009 and up 2.0 percent from June.**

*https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212907-existing-home-sales-fall
 https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/existing-home-sales-falls-3point4percent-in-september.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/23/us-july-new-home-sales-fall-to-9-month-low.html