ECONOMY TODAY (November, 2018)

Though both men and women have seen an improvement in the economy, women's perception is not as great as it is for men.*  In fact, Democratic women feel the economy has lost much of the ground gained since the Great Recession (see figure below*).  Republican men and women see the economy much differently going into 2017, though here too Republican women feel the economy has lost some ground in 2018.
Nearly half of men — 47 percent — said their family’s finances had improved in the past year, according to a survey conducted for The New York Times in early October by the online research platform SurveyMonkey. Just 30 percent of women said the same, despite an unemployment rate that is near a five-decade low and economic growth that is on track for its best year since before the recession.*
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“Republican men are just more confident and more optimistic than even Republican women are,” said Laura Wronski, a research scientist for SurveyMonkey.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

The economy does seem to be rolling what with the first October estimate seeing a growth in hires of 250,000.  Though this number can easily change in the coming months by 40,000 hires (plus or minus), even 40,000 less would still be wonderful.  What's more, it is said that wages increased by 3.1% for the first time in a decade.  Of course, increasing wages are good for the workers, but they are bad for the industry that sees costs increasing as a result.  This is reflected in the stock market decline today (November 02).

I have wondered for several months if we are entering a bubble and the October information on jobs and wages is compatible with a bubble.

Despite all the enthusiasm over the economy what with the tax cut (see figure below),** there seem to be surprising worries about the economy.  The figure below shows that as recently as early 2015, the GDP almost touched 4% whereas now it is at 3%.  While 3% is an improvement over the last couple of years, is it really what was expected from the tax cut (that is being paid for by Federal borrowing).

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Consumer confidence is at an 18 yr high.***  After a low in confidence in June, there have been four consecutive months of increases.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

I have been remarking on the low sales of homes, both new and existing, and wondering what it means.**** Though there was an increase in home construction in September, it was offset by a drop in government construction spending.  There also is some moderation in the manufacturing index in October.****:
Despite the moderation in the manufacturing numbers, October marked the 114th consecutive month of overall economic growth, according to the Manufacturing ISM report.****
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Spending on U.S. construction projects was essentially unchanged in September. It is the weakest showing since June, as an increase in home construction was offset by a slide in spending on government projects.

Certainly, not all segments of the economy are on fire.  Women feel the uncertainty in the economy more than men.

* https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/27/business/economy/women-usa-economy.html
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/27/trump-tax-cuts-were-supposed-set-off-an-investment-boom-they-arent-so-far/?utm
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/30/consumer-confidence-rises-to-an-18-year-high-in-october.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/10/home-sales-fall.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/october-ism-and-september-construction-spending.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/octobers-jobs-report-was-perfect-for-everyone-except-wall-street.html