We are told there is a huge Caravan of Central American people (Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador) coming to the U.S. through Mexico. How big is huge? I've seen estimates of 1,500 to 7,000 people.
I've also seen estimates that about 1,500 people have sought asylum in Mexico so far.
The first wave of the Caravan reached the Guatemala-Mexico border on October 19th.*
A Caravan of 5,000 people (WSJ's estimate) is a bad idea. It is said that they are let into various buildings at night such as auditoriums. But nobody seems to cover how they are being fed. Can you call ahead to a McDonalds and order 5,000 Big Macs with Spanish rice and a Coke? And how long would it take distribute the food? For example, if they could distribute the food on average for 1 sec. each, it would take 5,000 seconds to distribute the food. That is 83.33 min. or 1.38 hrs. And how is this paid for? It is unbelievable that you could distribute 5,000 Big Macs with rice and a Coke and have the recipient pay for it in a second. Do all the members have money for this?
Three days ago, it is said that the Caravan is 800 mi, from the U.S.-Mexico border. If they can average walking 10 mi. a day, it will take 80 days before they arrive at the border which would take them into the next calendar year. Remember that one of the other bad things about the huge Caravan is that it must move at the rate of its slowest members and one sees small children in the Caravan. As the days go by, I'm sure that some members give up and try to go home (On a news program I saw a bus that was said to be filled with members going home.). Others will seek asylum in Mexico that has more lenient criteria than the U.S. Just how many members of the Caravan will reach the U.S. is unknown.
On the news, you will see trucks loaded with people, maybe 40-50 (As nearly as I can tell, all men.), that can certainly move much faster than the Caravan. So it is possible that small groups will reach our border with Mexico this year, but does this require Army forces to handle?
Note added 10-30-2018: The Army is said to be sending 5,200 troops to the border. It is now only a week until the election. I wonder whether the order will be rescinded after next Tuesday before the bulk of the forces arrive?
The whole thing is just a political joke made to influence the election in November that many voters will probably take seriously. Can Trump also really close the border to asylum seekers?**
* https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2018/10/19/mexico-caravan-guatemala-weir-bpr-wolf-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/migrant-caravan/
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/26/asylum-explained-can-trump-shut-down-process-migrant-caravan/1775728002/
Monday, October 29, 2018
Saturday, October 27, 2018
REPUBLICANS "COME TO JESUS" MOMENT
After years of trying to get rid of the ACA (Obamacare), Republicans have finally discovered that the voting public is serious about having pre-existing conditions covered in medical care. * Included among these, in addition to the President, are two Republican governors: Gov. Rick Scott of Florida and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin. These two governors are actually in a lawsuit brought by 20 governors' Attorneys Generals trying to make the ACA illegal.
In fact one Attorney General Josh Hawley who is running for the Senate in Missouri is among those trying to get rid of the ACA.
Mr. Hawley is among a group of G.O.P. officials from 20 states who have brought a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act. If the suit succeeds, the entire law, including its guarantees of affordable coverage for Americans with prior illnesses, could be eradicated. (The Trump administration has argued in court that most of the law should stand, but its pre-existing conditions protections, alone, should be invalidated.) Ms. McCaskill has been using Mr. Hawley’s participation in the suit as a central line of attack in her campaign, and has highlighted her personal experience with breast cancer.**
The big question is, do these Republican politicians mean it? Suppose they get elected. Will they still vote to protect pre-existing conditions, or is this just another Republican con job such as our president is famous for?
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/trump-pledges-to-protect-obamacare-pre-existing-conditions-as-midterms-loom.html
** https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/upshot/republicans-health-care-ads-midterms.html
In fact one Attorney General Josh Hawley who is running for the Senate in Missouri is among those trying to get rid of the ACA.
Mr. Hawley is among a group of G.O.P. officials from 20 states who have brought a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act. If the suit succeeds, the entire law, including its guarantees of affordable coverage for Americans with prior illnesses, could be eradicated. (The Trump administration has argued in court that most of the law should stand, but its pre-existing conditions protections, alone, should be invalidated.) Ms. McCaskill has been using Mr. Hawley’s participation in the suit as a central line of attack in her campaign, and has highlighted her personal experience with breast cancer.**
The big question is, do these Republican politicians mean it? Suppose they get elected. Will they still vote to protect pre-existing conditions, or is this just another Republican con job such as our president is famous for?
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/24/trump-pledges-to-protect-obamacare-pre-existing-conditions-as-midterms-loom.html
** https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/upshot/republicans-health-care-ads-midterms.html
Friday, October 26, 2018
PRESIDENTIAL BOMBER
At least 10 Democratic politicians and supporters received packages mailed to them that contained pipe bombs that may or may not had been made to explode (two people received two packages). Normally I would decline to write about the matter because the investigation is still in an ongoing preliminary stage, but this bomber did something unique in American political history. .
I believe to be unique among former presidents, one of the pipe bomb packages was addressed to former President Barack Obama. Although many presidents have had attempted assassinations while President (including President Trump) this is the first case I know of , of an assassination attempt on a former President
Former Presidents, until now, have been surprisingly exempt from assassination attempts to the degree that proposals have been made to remove their lifetime Secret Service protections. I guess those proposals were premature.
So we have the continuation of the Decline of American Politics.* Perhaps it is Newt Gingrich who started the decline with his intemperate language, but a very serious major step was made by Mitt Romney when he politicized the Benghazi attack while he was running for president as it was the first time the political parties didn't come together on an event that happened beyond the American shores or boundaries.
The turn from words to physicality began in President Donald Trump's run for the presidency:
During Donald Trump's run for President, he spoke of "get 'em outta here" about protesters in which they were shoved and yelled at in a Kentucky rally. At an Arizona rally, a protester was punched and kicked as he was being led out of the rally. Then there was Trump's comment at a rally in Nevada about a protester,"I'd like to punch him in the face, I tell you." And " They's be carried out on a stretcher, folks." in the old days.*
and There may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. Okay? Just knock the hell— I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise. It won’t be so much ’cause the courts agree with us **
The verbal violence turned to shootings by a fanatic Bernie Sanders supporter with the very serious wounding of Rep. Scalise and others on while practicing on baseball on a ball field.**
And now we add attempted bombings even of a past-President. What next?
...................................................................
The authorities have a suspect in the multiple mail bombing cases (now maybe more than 12) by the name of Cesar Sayot, Jr. Age 56. He has a van with all sorts of pro-Trump stickers showing he is a fan of him. He also has quite an arrest record dating back at least 20 yrs.
Note added 10-30-2018): The what next was an attack on a Jewish congregation in which 11 were killed and 6 wounded plus two African Americans were killed at random in Kentucky after trying to enter a Black church on Sunday, October 28th that turned out to be locked after the service.
You also need to look at the references in these cited postings.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/decline-of-american-politics.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/rep-scalise-shot-now-what.html
I believe to be unique among former presidents, one of the pipe bomb packages was addressed to former President Barack Obama. Although many presidents have had attempted assassinations while President (including President Trump) this is the first case I know of , of an assassination attempt on a former President
Former Presidents, until now, have been surprisingly exempt from assassination attempts to the degree that proposals have been made to remove their lifetime Secret Service protections. I guess those proposals were premature.
So we have the continuation of the Decline of American Politics.* Perhaps it is Newt Gingrich who started the decline with his intemperate language, but a very serious major step was made by Mitt Romney when he politicized the Benghazi attack while he was running for president as it was the first time the political parties didn't come together on an event that happened beyond the American shores or boundaries.
The turn from words to physicality began in President Donald Trump's run for the presidency:
During Donald Trump's run for President, he spoke of "get 'em outta here" about protesters in which they were shoved and yelled at in a Kentucky rally. At an Arizona rally, a protester was punched and kicked as he was being led out of the rally. Then there was Trump's comment at a rally in Nevada about a protester,"I'd like to punch him in the face, I tell you." And " They's be carried out on a stretcher, folks." in the old days.*
and There may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. Okay? Just knock the hell— I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise. It won’t be so much ’cause the courts agree with us **
The verbal violence turned to shootings by a fanatic Bernie Sanders supporter with the very serious wounding of Rep. Scalise and others on while practicing on baseball on a ball field.**
And now we add attempted bombings even of a past-President. What next?
...................................................................
The authorities have a suspect in the multiple mail bombing cases (now maybe more than 12) by the name of Cesar Sayot, Jr. Age 56. He has a van with all sorts of pro-Trump stickers showing he is a fan of him. He also has quite an arrest record dating back at least 20 yrs.
Note added 10-30-2018): The what next was an attack on a Jewish congregation in which 11 were killed and 6 wounded plus two African Americans were killed at random in Kentucky after trying to enter a Black church on Sunday, October 28th that turned out to be locked after the service.
You also need to look at the references in these cited postings.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/decline-of-american-politics.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/rep-scalise-shot-now-what.html
Thursday, October 25, 2018
HOME SALES FALL
Though there are many signs that the economy is on fire, one place that it isn't is in home sales for both existing and new homes. Several factors may be the cause such as paying off college loans, getting married later, high cost of homes, increasing mortgage payments and perhaps others. Home sales are having a damping effect on the economy though the economy is very good at present.
*https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212907-existing-home-sales-fall
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/existing-home-sales-falls-3point4percent-in-september.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/23/us-july-new-home-sales-fall-to-9-month-low.html
Sales of existing homes fell 3.4 percent in September to a 5.15 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Sales are down 4.1 percent from a year ago and 10 percent from the recent peak of 5.72 million in November 2017. Sales declined in three of the four regions tallied: sales fell 3.6 percent for the month in the West and are 12.2 percent below the September 2017 rate; sales declined 2.9 percent in the Northeast, putting sales 5.6 percent below year-ago levels; and sales dropped 5.4 percent in the South, leaving that region's sales rate 0.5 percent below the year-ago pace. Sales were unchanged for the month in the Midwest but remain 1.5 percent below the year-ago level.*
Sales in the market for existing single-family homes, which account for just under 90 percent of total existing-home sales, also fell 3.4 percent in September, coming in at a 4.58 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (see chart). From a year ago, sales are down 4.0 percent. Sales were down across the four regions: sales fell 4.0 percent in the West to 950,000 from 990,000 in the prior month; sales dropped 4.6 percent in the South to 1.86 million; the Northeast saw a 3.4 percent decline; and the Midwest posted a 0.8 percent pullback.*
(Click on figure to enlarge. Source: https://www.aier.org/article/new-home-sales-fall-again)
New home sales in the South, which accounts for the bulk of transactions, declined 3.3 percent in July. Sales rose 10.9 percent in the West and 9.9 percent in the Midwest. They tumbled 52.3 percent in the Northeast to their lowest level since September 2015.**
The median new house price rose 6.0 percent to $328,700 in July from June. There were 309,000 new homes on the market in July, the most since March 2009 and up 2.0 percent from June.**
*https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212907-existing-home-sales-fall
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/existing-home-sales-falls-3point4percent-in-september.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/23/us-july-new-home-sales-fall-to-9-month-low.html
Monday, October 22, 2018
IF THE U.S. ISN'T A DEMOCRACY, WHAT IS IT?
[This is a companion article to Is The U.S A Democracy?] (https://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/10/is-us-democracy.html)
Although the U.S. isn't a democracy, it certainly is different from authoritarian states like Russia and Saudi Arabia. All American presidents rail at the press, and feel it is unfair, but so far as I can tell, members of the press are not assassinated, as they are in Russia and Saudi Arabia. Also it is rare that reporters are jailed though it does occur:*
But assaults by politicians only account for 4.5% of the total number of physical attacks in 2017. Including attacks by police officers, 70% of the total number of physical attacks against journalists in the U.S. occurred at protests and rallies.
Who was attacking all these journalists at protests? In five cases (19% of the attacks at protests and 11% of the total attacks), the assailants were law enforcement officers. But in sixteen cases, the assailants were protesters — either white nationalist protesters or anti-fascist protesters — who objected to a journalist’s reporting.
...............................................................
While the First Amendment is a unique and powerful protection that virtually all other countries lack, the state of press freedom in the United States is increasingly perilous. It’s vital that we continue to monitor any and all attacks on journalists, and we plan on even more coverage in 2018.*
So we have a largely free press. Also in spite of attempts to keep various groups of people from voting, 10s of millions do and the elections often turn out surprises like the election President Trump himself.
Also a characteristic of the U.S. is the dominance of business that is largely given a free rein to behave as they please and supported by the Supreme Court. There are also "truth in advertising" food requirements such as strawberry jam must have some strawberries or juice in it. Also required is a cursory meat inspection. But consider the Hobby Lobby case where the Supreme Court gave permission for a company to go into a law and pick and choose which parts of the law they intended not to obey.
One aspect of the business nature of our country is attempts to keep wages low. thus there are attempts to freeze the Minimum Wage or even get rid of it. If wages take a sudden rise, it is likely that the stock market will sustain a decline. German auto companies feel that the American South is a third world country and have built many car factories there.
Sometimes industry is reined in somewhat such as by the passage of the Clean Air Act of 1963 (and later amendments)** and the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP)*** that resulted in what is called CAP AND TRADE**** of sulfur dioxide emissions by power plants. Although CAP AND TRADE worked well on sulfur dioxide emissions, there are strong forces in industry against applying it to carbon dioxide emissions.
In addition to the Republican party being the supposed party of business, it is also the party of conservative religion. Thus the Republican party wants to control not only abortion but also contraceptives and limiting the freedoms of groups like homosexuals. In the past there have been cries of "Freedom OF Religion does not mean Freedom FROM Religion" directed at Atheists.
I'm not sure what you can call us. Perhaps a Capitalist Democracy?
* .https://pressfreedomtracker.us/blog/34-arrests-44-physical-attacks-and-more-chilling-numbers-us-press-freedom-trackers-first-year/
** https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Acid_Precipitation_Assessment_Program
**** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading
Although the U.S. isn't a democracy, it certainly is different from authoritarian states like Russia and Saudi Arabia. All American presidents rail at the press, and feel it is unfair, but so far as I can tell, members of the press are not assassinated, as they are in Russia and Saudi Arabia. Also it is rare that reporters are jailed though it does occur:*
But assaults by politicians only account for 4.5% of the total number of physical attacks in 2017. Including attacks by police officers, 70% of the total number of physical attacks against journalists in the U.S. occurred at protests and rallies.
Who was attacking all these journalists at protests? In five cases (19% of the attacks at protests and 11% of the total attacks), the assailants were law enforcement officers. But in sixteen cases, the assailants were protesters — either white nationalist protesters or anti-fascist protesters — who objected to a journalist’s reporting.
...............................................................
While the First Amendment is a unique and powerful protection that virtually all other countries lack, the state of press freedom in the United States is increasingly perilous. It’s vital that we continue to monitor any and all attacks on journalists, and we plan on even more coverage in 2018.*
So we have a largely free press. Also in spite of attempts to keep various groups of people from voting, 10s of millions do and the elections often turn out surprises like the election President Trump himself.
Also a characteristic of the U.S. is the dominance of business that is largely given a free rein to behave as they please and supported by the Supreme Court. There are also "truth in advertising" food requirements such as strawberry jam must have some strawberries or juice in it. Also required is a cursory meat inspection. But consider the Hobby Lobby case where the Supreme Court gave permission for a company to go into a law and pick and choose which parts of the law they intended not to obey.
One aspect of the business nature of our country is attempts to keep wages low. thus there are attempts to freeze the Minimum Wage or even get rid of it. If wages take a sudden rise, it is likely that the stock market will sustain a decline. German auto companies feel that the American South is a third world country and have built many car factories there.
Sometimes industry is reined in somewhat such as by the passage of the Clean Air Act of 1963 (and later amendments)** and the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP)*** that resulted in what is called CAP AND TRADE**** of sulfur dioxide emissions by power plants. Although CAP AND TRADE worked well on sulfur dioxide emissions, there are strong forces in industry against applying it to carbon dioxide emissions.
In addition to the Republican party being the supposed party of business, it is also the party of conservative religion. Thus the Republican party wants to control not only abortion but also contraceptives and limiting the freedoms of groups like homosexuals. In the past there have been cries of "Freedom OF Religion does not mean Freedom FROM Religion" directed at Atheists.
I'm not sure what you can call us. Perhaps a Capitalist Democracy?
* .https://pressfreedomtracker.us/blog/34-arrests-44-physical-attacks-and-more-chilling-numbers-us-press-freedom-trackers-first-year/
** https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Acid_Precipitation_Assessment_Program
**** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading
Saturday, October 20, 2018
IS THE U.S. A DEMOCRACY?
There has been a recent spate of articles about democracy being in danger (http://newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/four-threats-to-american-democracy-250120) and this item is my take on the matter.
The U.S. has never been a full democracy and was designed to be a Representative Democracy because of how to count slaves.*
But over the decades, America has become less and less even a representative democracy. The problem is a couple fold. One is that every state has at minimum three electors (one for each Senator and one for each Representative). These are Alaska, Delaware, District of Columbia*, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming.
The problem comes in because the number of electors has become fixed at 538. Therefore, states with minimal population got three electors whereas the more populous states divide up the remainder. Although California has the most electors with 55, it is still under representative of its population. Of course this could be fixed by increasing the number of electors, but this has never been done.
Furthermore, the electors of most states vote on a winner take all basis.
In 2000, Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore won the popular vote, yet Republican George W. Bush won the presidency. In 2016, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by quite a margin (about 3 million); yet Republican Donald Trump won the election on the basis of electors from Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Thus in two of the last 5 elections, the candidate with the most popular votes lost the election.
There was a problem in the Senate in 2016 also. Though Republicans kept their majority in the Senate, Democrats got more votes total.** The big part of the problem is that each state gets two Senators no matter what their population. This is dramatically shown by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was re-elected with 111,000 votes; Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York was re-elected with 4.8 million votes.**
Today, Republicans don’t even need to win any “swing states” to win a Senate majority: 52 seats are in states where the 2016 presidential margin was at least 5 percentage points more Republican than the national outcome. By contrast, there are just 28 seats in states where the margin was at least 5 points more Democratic, and only 20 seats in swing states.***
Similar biases also appear in state legislatures, e.g. Michigan**** In Virginia, Democratic delegates got by far the most votes but only tied with the Republicans for number of seats. The Republicans ended up controlling the House by a coin flip and taking names from a hat.****
If the U.S. is a democracy, shouldn't all American have the right to vote?
First, the law requires that voters present qualifying ID in order to cast a ballot. An ID card isn’t valid unless it contains the voter’s current residential street address. This requirement disproportionately burdens Native Americans, plaintiffs pointed out, since many do not have residential addresses; they have their mail delivered to a post office box rather than to a physical address
I think this idea that you have to have a street address is a compromise from the day that you had to be a property owner to vote. When I lived in Washington, D.C., for example, homeless people didn't have a street address so couldn't vote. The current case involves American Indians living in North Dakota who have P.O. address but not street addresses. This requirement should be abolished if we are going to consider ourselves a democracy, but the Supreme Court thinks otherwise. (https://rewire.news/ablc/2018/10/11/supreme-court-native-americans-november/)
The bottom line to all this is that the U.S. is no longer even a representative democracy.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_electors,_2016
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/10/democrats-won-popular-vote-senate-too/93598998/
*** https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-congressional-map-is-historically-biased-toward-the-gop/
**** https://www.metrotimes.com/detroit/once-again-michigan-dems-receive-more-votes-in-the-state-house-but-republicans-hold-onto-power/Content?oid=2472685
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/12/21/virginia-election-tie-coin-tosses-picking-names-hat-yep-thats-how-races-decided-probably-never-going/973630001/
The U.S. has never been a full democracy and was designed to be a Representative Democracy because of how to count slaves.*
But over the decades, America has become less and less even a representative democracy. The problem is a couple fold. One is that every state has at minimum three electors (one for each Senator and one for each Representative). These are Alaska, Delaware, District of Columbia*, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming.
The problem comes in because the number of electors has become fixed at 538. Therefore, states with minimal population got three electors whereas the more populous states divide up the remainder. Although California has the most electors with 55, it is still under representative of its population. Of course this could be fixed by increasing the number of electors, but this has never been done.
Furthermore, the electors of most states vote on a winner take all basis.
In 2000, Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore won the popular vote, yet Republican George W. Bush won the presidency. In 2016, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by quite a margin (about 3 million); yet Republican Donald Trump won the election on the basis of electors from Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10). Thus in two of the last 5 elections, the candidate with the most popular votes lost the election.
There was a problem in the Senate in 2016 also. Though Republicans kept their majority in the Senate, Democrats got more votes total.** The big part of the problem is that each state gets two Senators no matter what their population. This is dramatically shown by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was re-elected with 111,000 votes; Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York was re-elected with 4.8 million votes.**
Today, Republicans don’t even need to win any “swing states” to win a Senate majority: 52 seats are in states where the 2016 presidential margin was at least 5 percentage points more Republican than the national outcome. By contrast, there are just 28 seats in states where the margin was at least 5 points more Democratic, and only 20 seats in swing states.***
Similar biases also appear in state legislatures, e.g. Michigan**** In Virginia, Democratic delegates got by far the most votes but only tied with the Republicans for number of seats. The Republicans ended up controlling the House by a coin flip and taking names from a hat.****
If the U.S. is a democracy, shouldn't all American have the right to vote?
First, the law requires that voters present qualifying ID in order to cast a ballot. An ID card isn’t valid unless it contains the voter’s current residential street address. This requirement disproportionately burdens Native Americans, plaintiffs pointed out, since many do not have residential addresses; they have their mail delivered to a post office box rather than to a physical address
I think this idea that you have to have a street address is a compromise from the day that you had to be a property owner to vote. When I lived in Washington, D.C., for example, homeless people didn't have a street address so couldn't vote. The current case involves American Indians living in North Dakota who have P.O. address but not street addresses. This requirement should be abolished if we are going to consider ourselves a democracy, but the Supreme Court thinks otherwise. (https://rewire.news/ablc/2018/10/11/supreme-court-native-americans-november/)
The bottom line to all this is that the U.S. is no longer even a representative democracy.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_electors,_2016
** https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/10/democrats-won-popular-vote-senate-too/93598998/
*** https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-congressional-map-is-historically-biased-toward-the-gop/
**** https://www.metrotimes.com/detroit/once-again-michigan-dems-receive-more-votes-in-the-state-house-but-republicans-hold-onto-power/Content?oid=2472685
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/12/21/virginia-election-tie-coin-tosses-picking-names-hat-yep-thats-how-races-decided-probably-never-going/973630001/
Thursday, October 18, 2018
DEMOCRATS BEHAVING LIKE REPUBLICANS
It occurs to me that in the recent battle over a Supreme Court nomination, that the Democrats fought a battle worthy of Republicans, though their efforts were doomed from the start. As Bill Clinton said, Republicans like to fall into line. I think that a lot of current Democrats appreciated that their Party fought back. Old timers like me liked it better when Democrats were the adults in the room, but they were being run over, again and again. So at least they gave it a try in fighting back. It doesn't work if one political party has to do all the compromising.
Barack Obama was a compromiser, but found to get 20% of what he wanted, he had to give the Republicans 89% of what they wanted. so that couldn't last and we had a scorched Earth policy by the Republicans.
Perhaps as a result of the fight , Kavanaugh might moderate his positions a bit, but I doubt it. I don't see that Clarence Thomas moderated his positions at all.
Barack Obama was a compromiser, but found to get 20% of what he wanted, he had to give the Republicans 89% of what they wanted. so that couldn't last and we had a scorched Earth policy by the Republicans.
Perhaps as a result of the fight , Kavanaugh might moderate his positions a bit, but I doubt it. I don't see that Clarence Thomas moderated his positions at all.
Saturday, October 13, 2018
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? - Republished
About once a month, I have taken to republishing old posts that I feel have some note. Curiously, my most viewed post "What Does This Mean?" (published September 28, 2012) by far is also the shortest. It has 816 page views with 17 in just this last month. Here it is in its entirely"
What can you say about a nation that opposes unions for teachers, firemen, and police, but supports the professional National Football League referee's union? Are our priorities straight?
What can you say about a nation that opposes unions for teachers, firemen, and police, but supports the professional National Football League referee's union? Are our priorities straight?
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
EQUINOXES
(I find that I have published a little piece called the Autumnal Equinox in 2017. The current item is much better.)
Now for something lighter. It was overshadowed by the Supreme Court events, but we passed the autumnal equinox at 9:53 PM, Saturday, September 22.
If you pass a plane through the Earth and the Sun, the Earth is tilted on its axis relative to the plane. The result of this is that for half the year, the North Pole is pointed toward the Sun and the other half, the South Pole is pointed toward the Sun. We see day and night because the Earth spins on its axis.
The word equinox means "equal night" so most places on Earth will get 12 hrs of daylight and 12 hours of night on an equinox.
* https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/9/20/17873846/fall-equinox-2018-autumnal
** https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_tilt
Now for something lighter. It was overshadowed by the Supreme Court events, but we passed the autumnal equinox at 9:53 PM, Saturday, September 22.
If you pass a plane through the Earth and the Sun, the Earth is tilted on its axis relative to the plane. The result of this is that for half the year, the North Pole is pointed toward the Sun and the other half, the South Pole is pointed toward the Sun. We see day and night because the Earth spins on its axis.
The word equinox means "equal night" so most places on Earth will get 12 hrs of daylight and 12 hours of night on an equinox.
But not every place will experience the exact same amount of daylight. For instance, on Saturday, Fairbanks, Alaska, will see 12 hours and 16 minutes of daylight. Key West, Florida,will see 12 hours and seven minutes. The differences are due to how the sunlight gets refracted (bent) as it enters Earth’s atmosphere at different latitudes.*
You might also notice that both of these locations have daylight times longer than 12 hours. Aren’t day and night supposed to be equal? Daylight time is slightly longer than nighttime on the equinox because of how we measure the length of a day: from the first hint of the sun peeking over the horizon in the morning to the very last glimpse of it before it falls below the horizon in the evening. Because the sun takes some time to rise and set, it adds some extra daylight minutes.*
Incidentally, all planets have equinoxes. Mercury's tilt is only 2.11 degrees. Earth's tilt is 23.5 degrees, similar to most planets, but Uranus is tilted 98 degrees. The planet Venus is weird in that its tilt is 177.4 degrees (i.e. its North axis is below the plane), and it also rotates in a retrograde direction opposite to the Earth.*** https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/9/20/17873846/fall-equinox-2018-autumnal
** https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_tilt
Labels:
Earth axis tiled 23.5 degrees,
Equinox
Sunday, October 7, 2018
KAVANAUGH
So Brett Kavanaugh is now on the Supreme Court.
Let's see, when it comes to sexual harassers put of the Supreme Court, There are two (Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh) and the score is:
Men Women
2 0
I have two lingering memories of the Kavanaugh nomination.
One is the anger showed by Sen. Lindsey Graham in which he threatened the Democrats to just wait until he becomes chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee
The other is the anger shown by Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his second round of hearings where he threatened what goes around comes around. i.e. he will get the Democrats when he is on the Supreme Court. * His face dripped with sneering out-of-control anger. And he read his statement so there is no misspeaking. Of course, he was told to get more aggressive. That is the Trump way, of course.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Curiously, Kavanagh is unqualified to be on the Supreme Court based on his own speeches. Of particular note is one given titled “The Judge as Umpire”—at the Columbus Law School at Catholic University in 2015:
To be a good judge and a good umpire, it’s important to have the proper demeanor. Really important, I think. To walk in the others’ shoes, whether it be the other litigants, the litigants in the case, the other judges. To understand them. To keep our emotions in check. To be calm amidst the storm. On the bench, to put it in the vernacular, don’t be a jerk. I think that’s important. To be a good umpire and a good judge, don’t be a jerk. In your opinions, to demonstrate civility—I think that’s important as well. To show, to help display, that you are trying to make the decision impartially and dispassionately based on the law and not based on your emotions. That we’re not the bigger than the game…There’s a danger of arrogance, as for umpires and referees, but also for judges. And I would say that danger grows the more time you’re on the bench. As one of my colleagues puts it, you become more like yourself—and that can be a problem.**
I guess I am going to have to give up all hope that Lindsay Graham will evolve into another John McCain. It seems up to Ben Sasse to take the roll if he wishes or, maybe, Lisa Murkowski.
Dr. Ford's testimony as to events at least passes the preponderance of the evidence test: she mentioned the incident during a counseling appointment in 2012, she passed a lie detector test, she brought the Kavanaugh incident up with her representative before Kavanaugh was nominated to the Supreme Court!
Since Brett Kavanaugh says he still likes beer, I can only hope he has his alcoholism*** under control and that it lasts. He could be what I call a functional alcoholic.
Also, I hope that at least a few times along the way while Judge Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court that he rules in favor of the people. Certainly, in the case of the 17 yr old pregnant illegal-immigrant girl, he forgot his impartiality and tried to stall the girl's wish for an abortion until she was in the 20th week of pregnancy so she would be ineligible for an abortion in Texas. Somehow, the girl got the court to rule on it and Kavanaugh was overruled.
I have the same wish for Neil Gorsuch. Considering Gorsuch's ruling on the Hobby Lobby case prior to it's getting to the supreme court makes it unlikely. In this ruling, it became legal for a business owner to dip into a law and on religious basis pick and choose what parts of the law the owner doesn't like and will not obey. Please note that this case was not about abortion, but about contraceptives. But one can hope.
* https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/27/brett-kavanaugh-defining-images-christine-ford-kavanaugh-hearing/1446178002/
** https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/kavanaugh-in-2015-a-judge-must-keep-emotions-in-check-and-not-be-a-political-partisan/
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/09/sexual-attack.html
Let's see, when it comes to sexual harassers put of the Supreme Court, There are two (Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh) and the score is:
Men Women
2 0
I have two lingering memories of the Kavanaugh nomination.
One is the anger showed by Sen. Lindsey Graham in which he threatened the Democrats to just wait until he becomes chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee
The other is the anger shown by Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his second round of hearings where he threatened what goes around comes around. i.e. he will get the Democrats when he is on the Supreme Court. * His face dripped with sneering out-of-control anger. And he read his statement so there is no misspeaking. Of course, he was told to get more aggressive. That is the Trump way, of course.
(click to enlarge)
(click to enlarge)
Curiously, Kavanagh is unqualified to be on the Supreme Court based on his own speeches. Of particular note is one given titled “The Judge as Umpire”—at the Columbus Law School at Catholic University in 2015:
To be a good judge and a good umpire, it’s important to have the proper demeanor. Really important, I think. To walk in the others’ shoes, whether it be the other litigants, the litigants in the case, the other judges. To understand them. To keep our emotions in check. To be calm amidst the storm. On the bench, to put it in the vernacular, don’t be a jerk. I think that’s important. To be a good umpire and a good judge, don’t be a jerk. In your opinions, to demonstrate civility—I think that’s important as well. To show, to help display, that you are trying to make the decision impartially and dispassionately based on the law and not based on your emotions. That we’re not the bigger than the game…There’s a danger of arrogance, as for umpires and referees, but also for judges. And I would say that danger grows the more time you’re on the bench. As one of my colleagues puts it, you become more like yourself—and that can be a problem.**
I guess I am going to have to give up all hope that Lindsay Graham will evolve into another John McCain. It seems up to Ben Sasse to take the roll if he wishes or, maybe, Lisa Murkowski.
Dr. Ford's testimony as to events at least passes the preponderance of the evidence test: she mentioned the incident during a counseling appointment in 2012, she passed a lie detector test, she brought the Kavanaugh incident up with her representative before Kavanaugh was nominated to the Supreme Court!
Since Brett Kavanaugh says he still likes beer, I can only hope he has his alcoholism*** under control and that it lasts. He could be what I call a functional alcoholic.
Also, I hope that at least a few times along the way while Judge Kavanaugh is on the Supreme Court that he rules in favor of the people. Certainly, in the case of the 17 yr old pregnant illegal-immigrant girl, he forgot his impartiality and tried to stall the girl's wish for an abortion until she was in the 20th week of pregnancy so she would be ineligible for an abortion in Texas. Somehow, the girl got the court to rule on it and Kavanaugh was overruled.
I have the same wish for Neil Gorsuch. Considering Gorsuch's ruling on the Hobby Lobby case prior to it's getting to the supreme court makes it unlikely. In this ruling, it became legal for a business owner to dip into a law and on religious basis pick and choose what parts of the law the owner doesn't like and will not obey. Please note that this case was not about abortion, but about contraceptives. But one can hope.
* https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/27/brett-kavanaugh-defining-images-christine-ford-kavanaugh-hearing/1446178002/
** https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/10/kavanaugh-in-2015-a-judge-must-keep-emotions-in-check-and-not-be-a-political-partisan/
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/09/sexual-attack.html
Friday, October 5, 2018
JOBS AND JOBLESS - SEPTEMBER 2018
The increase in employment was less than anticipated.
134,000: That was the total amount added to payrolls, according to the Labor Department. The number was well below Refinitiv estimates of 185,000 and the slowest pace since the 14,000 added in September 2017.*
3.7 percent: September's unemployment rate was down two-tenths of a point from August and was at the lowest level since December 1969, when the jobless level hit 3.5 percent.*
The drop in unemployment to 3.7% happened because of increases in the revised July and August hires of 87,000 job totals. The revised numbers can easily change by 40,000. For this reason, I wish they would discontinue with the initial monthly estimate that is demonstrable uncertain.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits continue to be remarkably low. In fact at record lows because of the increased size of the workforce over time. Thus the number of weeks where the unemployment claims have been below 300,00 is a record on the basis of unemployment claims per 100,000 workers.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended Sept. 29, the Labor Department said on Thursday.**
Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. Claims fell to 202,000 during the week ended Sept. 15, which was the lowest level since November 1969.**
The distribution of job gains and losses are given in the figure:***
(click on figure to enlarge)
If we really are at full employment, then why are so many people available to be employed?. I suppose the answer is that it is estimated that about 150,000 new people enter the job market each month.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/the-five-most-important-numbers-from-todays-jobs-report.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/us-weekly-jobless-claims-sept-29-2018.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html
134,000: That was the total amount added to payrolls, according to the Labor Department. The number was well below Refinitiv estimates of 185,000 and the slowest pace since the 14,000 added in September 2017.*
3.7 percent: September's unemployment rate was down two-tenths of a point from August and was at the lowest level since December 1969, when the jobless level hit 3.5 percent.*
The drop in unemployment to 3.7% happened because of increases in the revised July and August hires of 87,000 job totals. The revised numbers can easily change by 40,000. For this reason, I wish they would discontinue with the initial monthly estimate that is demonstrable uncertain.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits continue to be remarkably low. In fact at record lows because of the increased size of the workforce over time. Thus the number of weeks where the unemployment claims have been below 300,00 is a record on the basis of unemployment claims per 100,000 workers.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended Sept. 29, the Labor Department said on Thursday.**
Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported. Claims fell to 202,000 during the week ended Sept. 15, which was the lowest level since November 1969.**
The distribution of job gains and losses are given in the figure:***
(click on figure to enlarge)
If we really are at full employment, then why are so many people available to be employed?. I suppose the answer is that it is estimated that about 150,000 new people enter the job market each month.
* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/the-five-most-important-numbers-from-todays-jobs-report.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/us-weekly-jobless-claims-sept-29-2018.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html
Thursday, October 4, 2018
AUTONOMOUS CARS
I don't know about others, but I find autonomous cars to be the most exciting thing going today. This is why I am writing about them so much. Here is some recent commentary.*
My daughter-in-law has a Honda that really is autonomous on the highway now so long as there is a center line. It centers the vehicle between the lines. It slows for slow moving vehicles. It stops if the vehicle or person ahead of you stops. She could get on a freeway now and just drive hands free.
It seems to me that cars are slowly becoming autonomous.
Other news is that Honda if becoming a partner in GM Cruise and will invest $750 million up front and more than $2 billion more for about 5% of Cruise over the next 12 years.
GM Cruise** and Google Waymo*** are considered the two most advanced companies.
* https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/03/former-gm-vice-chair-and-former-chrysler-president-on-the-autonomous-car-race-gm-honda-self-driving-car-vehicle-cruise-holdings-investment-stake-hmc.html
** https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/gm-cruise-honda-investment-new-autonomous-vehicle/
*** https://waymo.com/
My daughter-in-law has a Honda that really is autonomous on the highway now so long as there is a center line. It centers the vehicle between the lines. It slows for slow moving vehicles. It stops if the vehicle or person ahead of you stops. She could get on a freeway now and just drive hands free.
It seems to me that cars are slowly becoming autonomous.
Other news is that Honda if becoming a partner in GM Cruise and will invest $750 million up front and more than $2 billion more for about 5% of Cruise over the next 12 years.
GM Cruise** and Google Waymo*** are considered the two most advanced companies.
They made some significant progress based on an impressive real-world self-driving demo of their Bolt EV prototype of which they now have over 100 driving in California, Arizona, and Michigan.
They are already using part of their fleet to carry Cruise employees “anywhere in San Francisco using their app” – an early version of the service they plan to offer to the public next year.**
* https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/03/former-gm-vice-chair-and-former-chrysler-president-on-the-autonomous-car-race-gm-honda-self-driving-car-vehicle-cruise-holdings-investment-stake-hmc.html
** https://electrek.co/2018/10/03/gm-cruise-honda-investment-new-autonomous-vehicle/
*** https://waymo.com/
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