PRESIDENTIAL BOMBER

At least 10 Democratic politicians and supporters received packages mailed to them that contained pipe bombs that may or may not had been made to explode (two people received two packages).  Normally I would decline to write about the matter because the investigation is still in an ongoing preliminary stage, but this bomber did something unique in American political history. .

I believe to be unique among former presidents,  one of the pipe bomb packages was addressed to former President Barack Obama.  Although many presidents have had attempted assassinations while President (including President Trump) this is the first case I know of , of an assassination attempt on a former President

Former Presidents, until now, have been surprisingly exempt from assassination attempts to the degree that proposals have been made to remove their lifetime Secret Service protections.  I guess those proposals were premature.

So we have the continuation of the Decline of American Politics.*  Perhaps it is Newt Gingrich who started the decline with his intemperate language, but a very serious major step was made by Mitt Romney when he politicized the Benghazi attack while he was running for president as it was the first time the political parties didn't come together on an event that happened beyond the American shores or boundaries.

The turn from words to physicality began in President Donald Trump's run for the presidency:
During Donald Trump's run for President, he spoke of "get 'em outta here" about protesters in which they were shoved and yelled at in a Kentucky rally.  At an Arizona rally, a protester was punched and kicked as he was being led out of the rally.  Then there was Trump's comment at a rally in Nevada about a protester,"I'd like to punch him in the face, I tell you."  And " They's be carried out on a stretcher, folks." in the old days.*
and There may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. Okay? Just knock the hell—  I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise. It won’t be so much ’cause the courts agree with us **

The verbal violence turned to shootings by a fanatic Bernie Sanders supporter with the very serious wounding of Rep. Scalise and others on while practicing on baseball on a  ball field.**

And now we add attempted bombings even of a past-President.  What next?
...................................................................
The authorities have a suspect in the multiple mail bombing cases (now maybe more than 12) by the name of Cesar Sayot, Jr. Age 56.  He has a van with all sorts of pro-Trump stickers showing he is a fan of him.  He also has quite an arrest record dating back at least 20 yrs.

Note added 10-30-2018): The what next was an attack on a Jewish congregation in which 11 were killed and 6 wounded plus two African Americans were killed at random in Kentucky after trying to enter a Black church on Sunday, October 28th that turned out to be locked after the service.

You also need to look at the references in these cited postings.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/decline-of-american-politics.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/rep-scalise-shot-now-what.html

DECLINE OF AMERICAN POLITICS

START OF THE DECLINE IN AMERICAN POLITICS
I'm not sure when the modern decline in American politics started.  Maybe it started with the Democrats overturning Robert Bork's nomination to the Supreme Court in 1987* that seems to have inflamed Republicans ever since.  As a Civil Libertarian, I agreed with the Democrats, but Bork said that all the accusations against him were wrong.  I don't know, but the Democrats seemed to be right.  At any rate, perhaps that is when the decline started, but it could be when Republicans developed their southern Strategy with Richard Nixon and Barry Goldwater.**

Note added June 18, 2017: A better start is with Newt Gingrich suggested by conservative David Brooks: How did all this intemperate language in politics start.  I now believe it goes back to Newt Gingrich, in the early 1980s as suggested by conservative David Brooks and forward who even published a list of combative words to use (Included in the references are several articles in addition to lists of words to use.).***   Just a few words from Gingrich's list are betray, corrupt, and hypocrisy.
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/rep-scalise-shot-now-what.html

THE NEXT BIG STEP: BENGHAZI
Another BIG step in decline occurred when Mitt Romney decided to politicize Benghazi and spawned 13 investigations!  I can't forgive him for this.  Prior to this, political disagreements ended at the shores of America.  When Ronald Reagan endured two major embassy bombings (including one ambassador being killed as in Benghazi) plus the Marine Barracks disaster in  Lebanon where 241 were killed  Democrats kept mum and never tried to make political hay out of it though there was one investigation.  The Beirut embassy bombing under Reagan killed 17 people * George Bush's administration suffered maybe 13 incidents in which 4 Americans total were killed including 3 diplomats with no resulting investigations.***

Now in American politics, EVERYTHING is on the table.

REPUBLICANS USE "FULL COURT PRESS" AGAINST DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTS
The next step started with the election of Bill Clinton as president where the Republicans started out of the gate with a "full court press" to destroy his presidency.  They attacked him on everything and anything, even when he fired the travel office, something he had every right to do as president.  Unfortunately, in his second term Clinton gave them some fodder with his relationship to Monica Lewinski resulting in his impeachment but not conviction.  The intensity seemed to even escalate with the election of Barack Obama to the presidency with some added racial factors.  I feel it is a triumph that Obama even was able to finish two terms without being assassinated.

REFUSAL TO TAKE UP SUPREME COURT NOMINATION
Yet another step involved the refusal of the Republican Senate to even consider the Democratic candidate for the Supreme Court - Merrick Garland.  I have to wonder if the Bork incident many years before had something to do with it.  Curiously, the Garland nomination was the opposite of the Bork nomination.  Bork would have replaced a "moderate" Democrat where "moderate" Garland would have replaced a Republican.  The Supreme Court is supposed to be non-partisan, but we all know it is the ultimate partisan body.

THE MOVE TO PHYSICALITY
During Donald Trump's run for President, he spoke of "get 'em outta here" about protesters in which they were shoved and yelled at in a Kentucky rally.****.  At an Arizona rally, a protester was punched and kicked as he was being led out of the rally.  Then there was Trump's comment at a rally in Nevada about a protester, "I'd like to punch him in the face, I tell you."  And " They's be carried out on a stretcher, folks." in the old days.****  Though Trump says the protester was throwing punches, The conservative Weekly Standard "was just over exaggerating."

I hope another step has not been taken with the physical attack by a Montana congressional candidate on a news reporter.  I heard the tape of the incident, and it was hard to hear what ticked off the congressional candidate.  I'm somewhat reassured by the candidate's lengthy apology, though I find it disturbing that some of his voters liked his his getting physical.  I'm afraid there are many militants in the Republican Party that would like to get physical.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork_Supreme_Court_nomination
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy
*** http://www.snopes.com/u-s-embassy-attacks-compared/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/opinion/the-four-american-narratives.html
****http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/02/politics/donald-trump-lawsuit-incite-violence-kentucky-rally/index.html
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2016/03/20/trump-supporter-charged-with-assault-following-scuffle-at-arizona-rally/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/protester-would-be-carried-out-on-a-stretcher-in-the-old-days-trump-reminisces/article/2001211

RICK SANTORUM FOR PRESIDENT - 2016

[Disclosure:  Rick Santorum is probably my least favorite politician.]

So Rick Santorum is running for president again.  By emphasizing his religious extremism, he managed to win a number of states in the Republican primaries of 2012.  Now he has presumably decided to cater to the American worker (he says) as well.  If I was an American worker, I would watch that hand under the table.  He says that he would somehow increase wages for the American worker.  Strange how Republicans discover the American worker every four years, but tromp on them in the intervening years (Get rid of the minimum wage or at least not increase it.  This would supposedly increase the number of jobs but make all workers even poorer than now.).  The predominant Republican opinion seems to be that the American worker is overpaid. Santorum doesn't say how he is going to increase the wages of the American worker, but, to be sure, it is early days in this political process with the election still 14 months away!

Mitt Romney did say how he would approach this problem.  He would make things favorable to starting more small businesses.  The trouble with this is, that early in his work life, he did work on promoting start-ups and did create some jobs, but he found he could make more money faster by manipulating money and abandoned start-ups.  That is a problem. The average start-up lasts about 5 or 6 years so the jobs are really rather temporary but can the number of start-ups even be increased enough in order to employ all the unemployed and minimally employed?

A problem with capitalism is that companies must sell ever more and preferably more expensive goods.  There are a couple of ways to do this: one is to get the domestic people to buy (want) ever more goods.  Here advertising plays a role.  Another is to export goods to people in other lands who need more goods.  This works well for exports to some foreign countries, though exchange rates do not always favor American companies.  Also most people in foreign countries cannot afford to buy our goods.  Encouraging more start-ups certainly will help with the employment problem but probably is not the total solution to the employment problem.  How are more start-ups to be encouraged: through government assistance or tax advantages (which is government assistance by a different name.)?

The American worker faces a number of problems that I have mentioned before.*  One is that the wages of the American worker have to be less than the cost of automation.  Another, of course, is that the wages must be competitive with the wages of low cost labor in other countries, tempered by the costs of transportation, increased costs of fuel in other countries, etc.  Then there is the problem that many, many jobs have just disappeared, such as telephone operators, gas station attendants, clerk typists, grocery store clerks, etc.  Even grocery store clerk jobs are being minimized by automated check out.

The point is that the drag on workers wages and number of jobs are many, and I doubt these problems are amenable to simple solutions.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/10/a-race-to-bottom.html; http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/05/plight-of-american-workers.html:

EVERYTHING NOW ON THE TABLE

Rudy Giuliani's malicious comments on our president (e.g. He doesn't love America.) surprised many conservatives who felt the comments were in bad taste because the Republican Party is now trying to be respectable.  The problem is, however, that these sort of comments are closely held by many (most?) in the Republican base.  Every once in awhile, a political candidate's real thoughts come out and often they are not pretty.  For a previous example I might mention Mitt Romney's comments about the 47% who don't pay any income taxes to the Federal government.  It really is true that many (most?) of the wealthy feel the poor are poor because they are lazy.  I have heard it from a number of my conservative friends.  President Ronald Reagan felt this way (the poor are poor because they want to be poor).  He fought his way out of poverty so everyone should be able to do it if they had any gumption.  While Ronald Reagan's rise to wealth is admirable, it overlooks the difficulties in escaping poverty

A major change in our political system came when Mitt Romney politicized  the Benghazi attack during the 2012 Presidential campaign.  In contrast Democrats were quiet on the two embassy attacks (Lebanon* and Kuwait**) and Marine barracks bombing with 241 Americans killed during President Reagan's term.  No doubt the lack of U.S. military action led to emboldening terrorist attacks that are with us still.  It used to be that politics stopped at the American shores, but no more.

So it should not be surprising that now congress is making foreign policy decisions without consulting the President of the United States by inviting Prime Minister Netanyaho to address congress, who is apparently against any sort of agreement with Iran to stop their pursual of a nuclear weapon.  The departure of Republicans from letting America speak with one voice on foreign policy will hurt our foreign relations immeasurably, but they don't seem to care.

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_United_States_embassy_bombing
The Beirut embassy bombing 1983 killed 63 including 17 Americans.  In 1984, another embassy building was bombed killing 22 including two Americans.
 ** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Kuwait_bombings
Actually seven bombings killing six and wounding about 90 more, no Americans.
*** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Beirut_barracks_bombing

ELIZABETH WARREN'S ONLY CHANCE?

Elizabeth Warren, a so-called liberal politician who cares about the consumer, is often mentioned as a 2016 presidential candidate, although she has repeatedly said she is not running.  She was born  June 22, 1949, an early Baby Boomer, and will be 67 years old on election day in 2016.  So if she is going to run for president, she will have to do it in this next presidential election.

Even if whomever is elected in 2016 serves only one term, Elizabeth Warren will be 71 by the 2020 election, probably too old to run.  Democrats in particular tend to think that 70 is too old to run for president.

Republicans, however, are different in that Bob Dole and John McCain, both Republicans, ran for president when older than the age of 70, but neither was elected.  Ronald Reagan ran for president over the age of 70 but that was for a second term.  He was 69 when he took office for his first term.  More likely whomever is elected in 2016 will probably serve two terms because that is what we have been doing lately.  Beginning with Ronald Regan, 4 of the five presidents have been elected for two terms so Elizabeth Warren would be 75 by 2024.

Hillary Clinton is the favorite among Democrats to run for president at this time.  She was born October 26, 1947 and would be 69 on election day in 2016, and, if elected would also be 69, about the same age as Ronald Reagan.  Although Republicans favor older candidates, I presume they will make the argument that she is too old, if she runs.  If for some reason Hillary does not run, my guess is that Elizabeth Warren will.

Jeb Bush seems to be the favorite of the "establishment" Republicans.  He was born February 11, 1953 so will be only 63 at the time of the 2016 election.  Chris Christie was born September 6, 1962 so will be only 54 at the time of the next presidential election.  The oldest of the Republican hopefuls is Mitt Romney who was born March 12, 1947 and is slightly older than Hillary Clinton.  If he is the Republican candidate, it will be hard to say Hillary Clinton is too old.  Other main Republican hopefuls seem to be younger than Jeb Bush.

DEATH PANELS & $716 BILLION FROM MEDICARE

I've never heard it discussed, but I think that Democrats are well concerned about making proposals to cut Medicare.  After all the Democrats had proposed in Section 123 of bill HR 3200 that would have paid physicians for counseling patients about living will, advances directives, and end-of -life care options.  Sarah Palin coined the phrase "death panels" to describe this and said that these panels would judge just how much health care you deserved.  Of those that knew about the claim, 30% said they thought it was true (about 255 of Americans).*  The provision about physicians counseling was removed from the final bill though end-of-life provisions, in particular, are a major expense in Medicare, but political hysteria had set in.  You should read the entire Wikipedia report but just to quote one claim "Rep Virginia Foxx (R-NC) charged that the proposal would 'put seniors in a position of being put to death by their government.'"

There is an Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) that will force cuts in Medicare if inflation in Medicare costs exceeds a certain number.**  These cuts specifically cannot reduce benefits or ration health care (Section 3403 of the health care law), but deal with things like Medicare Advantage costs, physician's reimbursement, hospital reimbursements.  Congress can rescind these cuts, but then must find the savings elsewhere.  This Board has been demagogued too.  Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney claimed that, "In order to bring health care costs down, we don't need to have `15 people telling us what kinds of treatments we should have."  But Romney's falsehood is relatively mild compared to that by others

 IPAB is a change from where a previous panel called MedPac advised the congress on cuts to medical costs, which congress duly ignored.  The panel consists of 15 members appointed by the President subject to Senate confirmation.  It is specified that the president must consult with the leaders of the Senate and House majorities and minorities for the appointment of 3 members each or 12 members total.  The other three members are the Head of HHS, and two health Administrators as non-voting members.  Though these members are not elected (thank heavens for that), they have more scrutiny than Department Secretaries, it seems to me.

Then there is the demogoging the $716 billion in cuts from Medicare, a sum identical to the cuts Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).  These cuts are expected to extend the life of Medicare for 8 years.  Now in Obamacare, these cuts are used elsewhere to do things like close the "donut hole" in Medicare D, and one might want to use the cuts for other purposes like reducing the Federal deficit, but that was not what was claimed.  It was claimed by various Republicans that the cuts were to reduce benefits to Medicare beneficiaries.  In fact, 30.2% of the cuts involve Medicare Advantage (Medicare-C) that cost 17% more than Medicare-B (and I feel Advantage should be eliminated entirely), 34.8% were to reduce hospital costs (and hospitals agreed to this because of an expected increase in patients under Obamacare), and 35 % for everything else (e.g. insurance cuts, home care provider cuts, uninsured patient cuts to hospitals, etc., about a dozen in all).***  Republicans implied or claimed that this sum would be taken from Medicare benefits, though such was not the case.  Republican candidate for President even claimed he would restore the cuts.

The funny thing is that all these were cuts were made by people that actually want to destroy Medicare.  Paul Ryan wanted to eliminate Medicare in favor of vouchers to people to seek medical insurance.  Besides he still wants to eliminate $716 billion from Medicare.****  But is it any wonder that Democrats are wary of mentioning specific cuts to Medicare?

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_panel
** http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/04/mitt-romney/romney-says-ipab-board-can-tell-people-ultimately-/
*** http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/08/14/romneys-right-obamacare-cuts-medicare-by-716-billion-heres-how/
**** http://reason.com/blog/2012/12/03/republicans-likely-to-stick-with-medicar

MITT ROMNEY

My heart goes out to Mitt Romney.  The effort he put in , in his failed run for the presidency, was incredible.  He went through a brutal primary campaign in which he felt compelled to flip flop on socially radical stands (e.g. on abortion, global warming, and other issues), then he had to shift gears and flip flop again in which to woo "ordinary" voters in the Presidential election.  I think what he was saying was, "Just elect me as President and I'll fix it."

Romney was a good student in law school and outstanding in simultaneously pursuing an MBA, saved the Winter Olympics (and gave his salary to charity),  and got passed an incredible health plan as Governor of Massachusetts (Where he refused the salary.).  He gave away his inheritance to BYU for the George W. Romney School of Business Management.  He did an outstanding job in his missionary work to France.  He tithed to the Mormon Church in which he also became an official, and was very successful at making money in business.  Early in his tenure at Bain Capital he started out in venture capital (i.e., creating startups) and was very successful at that, even creating quite a few jobs, but switched to private equity where making money was easier.  The guy had seemingly never failed at anything in his life until he was defeated at the age of 47 by popular Senator Ted Kennedy in a Senate bid, but he was undeterred in pursuing a political career.  It is worth noting that, though very wealthy, he gave up his pursuit of money to enter politics.  In doing so he never came close to such financial leaders as Bill Gates and the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet.  In fact he has never even entered the top 100 fortunes, so far.

It became clear, however, that Romney's background made him out of touch with the populace and led to such gaffs as his talk to supporters about he wouldn't get the votes of the "dependent" 47% who don't pay income taxes,* insulting many workers who vote Republican.  After he was defeated for President, he has given another talk to supporters claiming that he lost because of extreme gifts given by Democrats to the less well off.*  He obviously is not introspective.  He not only promised to return $713 billion to Medicare that he wrongly claimed was taken from benefits, but he overlooked all the income tax gifts given to the wealthy by the government (e.g. 15% income tax rate on qualified dividends, 15% on long-term capital gains, low taxes on "carried interest," no income taxes on Municipal bonds, among other more complex gifts) that permit him to pay less than a 15% income tax rate in many years rather than the 35% he would have paid without loop holes.  He even promised to extend tax breaks for the wealthiest Americans.

Also see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney; http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/republican-presidential-candidates-for.html; and http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/12/tthe-republican-primaries.html

* http://www.marketplace.org/topics/elections/campaign-trail/numbers-behind-mitt-romneys-47-comment; http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-mitt-romney-obama-gifts-20121115,0,2129448.story

INCREASING INCOME TAXES ON THE WEALTHY

In light of the election, we are hearing some different thoughts from some conservatives.  Perhaps the most interesting is from Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard (https://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/13af5f57502c4dbf):

“I don’t really understand why Republicans don’t take Obama’s offer to freeze taxes for everyone below $250,000,” he said. “Make it a million? Really? The Republican Party is going to fall on its sword to defend a bunch of millionaires, half of whom voted Democratic and half of whom live in Hollywood and are hostile.”

And he is quite correct.  Seven of the top 10 richest members of congress are Democrats and Nancy Pelosi is #12.  So they are doing it to themselves  I like to say that these are the wealthy with a conscience.  The truth is, however, that most wealthy people take advantage of tax loopholes (Mitt Romney being just one example) so raising the top income tax level will not hurt them.

Besides, there is the implication put out that if the income tax level is raised to 39.6% it will be on their entire income, whereas it actually is just on the sum ABOVE $250,000.  Thus if you made $300,000, the 39.6% will be just on the $50,000 above $250,000 for an increase of just $2,480 over the 35% rate.

IS NEWT GINGRICH THE ST. PAUL OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY?

We may recall that St. Paul started out as a persecutor of the Jews, but in traveling across the desert, he had what was probably a sun stroke and also had an epiphany. After an extended period of recovery during which he could not speak, he became "no sinner like a converted sinner" and with fervor, laid the foundation for Christianity. A number of his letters eventually became part of what is now the Bible. He was very convincing and converted even jailers and kings. St. Paul is the great redemption story with his earlier transgressions against the Jews being forgiven, though he remained unforgiven by some in his day who even threatened his life.

Newt Gringrich is running for president even though he is carrying a heavy load. He had to resign his speakership of the House and pay back a lot of money. There are his well known serial monogamy marriages with the "open marriage" claim. He claims to be a Reagan Republican though when Reagan was president he was quite critical of him.* In politics, Gingrich has flip flopped on many issues, probably as much as Romney.** Gingrich admits that he isn't proud of some things he did earlier in life, but he has reformed and, in South Carolina at least, the religious right and no doubt others forgave him, giving him a big victory. His bellicose response in a debate concerning open marriage was lapped up by the audience and is given much credit for his win. It remains to be seen just how much carryover this victory will have, but it looks like Gingrich is a great redemption story in the Republican Party.

* http://www.mittromney.com/news/press/2012/01/former-reagan-offical-elliot-abrams-gingrich-was-“dead-wrong”-criticisms-reagan

** http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/11/newt-gingrich-flip-flops.html

REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES

It still seems to me that the most qualified Republican candidate for president is Jon Huntsman. He was an outstanding governor of a Red state and balanced the budget, he is pro life, pro guns, and has been Ambassador to Singapore and , more importantly, China, our biggest rival and creditor. I think he faces several problems. This is his first time running so I think he lacks name recognition. He has referred to himself as a center right candidate, but he is a true conservative. His Abassadorship to China was under president Obama, and he made the mistake of saying some nice things about him. And of course, his Mormon religion probably counts against him. He has thrown his full effort into New Hampshire. If he should win, he might take on some steam. He is gaining in the polls.

I think Iowa is wide open and the caucuses are only a few weeks off. I don't know of any poll that has ranked candidates by their likelihood to go to the caucuses. As Gingrich doesn't have much of an organization in Iowa, I doubt he will win in Iowa. But right now, the "red meat" Republicans are in charge and like the idea of someone who can beat up on Obama. Eventually, I believe saner heads will prevail.

What has happened to Machele Bachmann? She has sounded rational for a few weeks now, even if I don't agree with her views. I do agree with her that the payroll tax cuts are a bad idea. It just makes the funding of Social Security and Medicare that much harder in the future. How many will she fool? Iowa is her place. It's there or never.

Ron Paul is doing surprisingly well in the polls in Iowa, but I have a hard time seeing him as the winner. He is just too much. Though some aspects of his foreign policies are well taken, others are just nutty. It is interesting that libertarians side with the Republicans because it is the Democrats that are social libertarians. Apparently it is fiscal libertarians that take precedence.

I'm sorry, but I can't stand Rick Santorum. He lost big in his run for a third term in the Senate. His stands against things like masturbation (of all things), oral sex (even for heterosexual couples), and homosexuals are just too far out. (http://www.americablog.com/2006/06/rick-santorum-its-all-about-sodomy.html) I'd like to see him take a lie detector test on personal masturbation and Justice Scalia too. He is also opposed to contraceptives in health care plans. (http://www.ricksantorum.com/pressrelease/senator-santorum-launches-“faith-family-and-freedom-tour”). Also see: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/12/in-end-liberalism-wins.html He sure wants to get into our bedrooms. It is not a surprise to me that he is doing poorly in the polls.

I still guess that in the end, the Republican nominee will be Mitt Romney. One thing I think we can count on if he becomes president is a large downsizing of the Federal government employees. This was his business career - downsizing. What else he will do is uncertain to me, but I'm sure he will try to be remembered as a great president. After all, this guy has excelled at everything he has done, except possibly campaigning. Why would we expect differently of him as president. So he might be better than anyone expects.

For an earlier assessment of Republican presidential candidates see:http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/republican-presidential-candidates-for.html

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT IN 2012 - MY TAKE

Jon Huntsman: I admire his patriotism in accepting the position of Ambassador to China in a Democratic administration even though he is a Republican. He was splendidly qualified to be the ambassador to this strategic country right down to his speaking the language - Mandarin. By all accounts, he was a successful fiscally-conservative twice-elected governor of Utah and cut the state budget by $400 million while maintaining a budget surplus. As a result, the Pew Research Center named Utah "The Best managed State in America." He was a White House staff assistant to Ronald Reagan, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce to George H.W. Bush, and was Ambassador to Singapore. Interesting fact: Jon Huntsman nominated Sarah Palin at the 2008 Republican convention (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAc1I--I8Os). I view John Huntsman to be by far the most qualified Republican to run for President, though he may be hurt by his Mormon religion and, shortsightedly, by his accepting the Ambassadorship in a Democratic administration.

Mitt Romney: After earning a BA from Brigham Young University, Mitt Romney received a joint JD/BBA from Harvard. He has considerable business experience in which he was remarkably successful, having worked for Boston consulting Group and Bain & Company. He is credited to helping such companies as Monsanto and Corning to become profitable again. He progressed to doing venture capital operations, one of which was Staples as head of Bain Capital. He became CEO of Bain & Company in 1991 and is credited with saving the company. He is credited with saving the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics and leading it to success. Romney became a one-term governor of Massachusetts in 2003 where through a series of spending cuts, increased fees, and fixing tax loophole, he turned the state from a deficit to a large surplus. All was not well, however, as there were silent increases elsewhere. His cutting of state aid to higher education resulted in large tuition increases (63%) in the following years. Because of his cuts in the state budget, town and city property taxes also had had to be raised. And his raising of fees for drivers and marriage licenses and a two cent retailer fee on gasoline was a hardship on the poor and lower classes. But the total tax burden in Massachusetts remained below the national average. Interesting fact: Romney did do his Mormon missionary work and tithes to his church.

He then championed near-universal health care funded by a payroll tax for Massachusetts on the basis that the uninsured still received expensive health care anyway, and there was a threat of a cut in Federal Medicaid aid if the state did not decrease the number of uninsured. He has been roundly criticized for this by many out-of-state Republicans, but he has said that what he did was appropriate for the state but not for the Federal government. Among the many things many Republicans don't like in the healthcare bill is the individual mandate that Romany pushed through for Massachusetts. As of mid-year in 2011, Romney has raised the most money by far of any Republican candidate. All in all, Romney might make a good president and probably would largely decrease the Federal deficit (but with quiet increases elsewhere); however his waffling on many issues such as abortion (http://www.ontheissues.org/governor/Mitt_Romney_Abortion.htm) in trying to get support from his fellow Republicans make in doubt his success in getting the Republican nomination for president.

Michelle Bachman: Michelle Bachman is prone to making outrageous comments,*** that I call her evil twin. She has hired some top level handlers for her campaign, and, if she can keep her evil twin at bay, she could be dangerous. She is a former state Senator, a three-time elected Representative from Minnesota, a member of the Religious Right and the Tea Party, has five children, and took care of 23 foster girls up to three at a time. She has not only a JD from Oral Roberts University, but also has a LLM (Master of Law) from William & Mary Law School and has worked as a tax attorney for the IRS. She and her husband did receive daily reimbursement for the foster children from the state of Minnesota. They also run a Christian counseling practice and receive money from the Federal government for this. Originally a Democrat, she worked for the first Carter election though she switched to Ronald Reagan for Carter's reelection bid. She is a very active opponent to Gay Marriage. She opposed the College Cost Reduction Act and Access Act signed into law by President Bush. Curious fact: she once worked on a Kibbutz (http://www.worthychristianforums.com/index.php?/topic/140802-michelle-bachman-once-lived-on-a-kibbutz-in-israel/).

Perhaps Bachman's most famous bill was to oppose a law to eliminate incandescent light bulbs unless they could be made as efficient as a compact florescent lights (CFL), which Bachman interpreted as outlawing incandescent lights (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/05/will-incandescent-light-bulbs-be-banned.html). A complex matter involves mercury contained in CFLs; however, " Bob Collins of Minnesota Public Radio commented on the debate, noting a Popular Mechanics article which concluded that over the average life span of a CFL, an incandescent bulb could result in the emission of more mercury than an equivalent CFL, even if the CFL was broken, assuming power was generated by "a coal-fired power plant" (which produce about half the electricity the US consumes)." (See Wikipedia article below). Actually, incandescent lights will probably be improved to compete with CFLs.

Note added 07-11): Michelle Bachman signed a pledge that included a clause that black children were better off under slavery (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/07/11/bachmann-denies-marriage-pledge-was-about-slavery/). She says she did not read the pledge carefully enough though this suggests she is careless.

Tim Pawlenty: Pawlenty started politics early having been elected to the Eagan city council at he age of 28. Served in the Minnesota House of Representative where he was majority leader for two terms. He served as the two term governor of Minnesota from 2003-2011, winning by narrow margins. He has a BA in political science and a JD from the University of Minnesota. He solved Minnesota's deficit problem through spending cuts (including on health care) and borrowing heavily from earmarked funds (e.g. the tobacco settle supposed to be for health care and the K-12 education, and the Health Care fund for low income families). He did support raising of fees (like Romney) and government reorganization to cut the deficit. His anti-healthcare leanings cause him to reject Federal funds from the Patient Protection and Affordable Health Care Act. He has served as president of the National Governor's Association. He did promote pubic works projects that included the North Star Commuter rail line and, also, a major league baseball field (which included an increase in the county sales tax). He did support the scandalous corn-based ethanol subsidy for farmers by mandated gasoline in the state carry 20% ethanol, in spite of ethanol having little benefit to carbon dioxide reduction. When there was a budget surplus he favored tax reduction over education funding.

He has made much of his humble beginnings as his father was a milk truck driver. He is of Polish (father) and German (mother) heritage. His wife is a judge and they have two daughters. He converted from Roman Catholicism to evangelicalism, his wife's faith. He first worked as a labor lawyer and later a s vice president of Wizmo, Inc. He is a social conservative and a member of the Christian Right and opposed to both gay marriage and civil unions. Although he surprisingly is for private sector unions (perhaps from his humble origins), he is opposed to public sector unions. He is leaving behind a huge budget deficit as a result of his short-term solutions. Former Republican Governor Anne Carlson is reported to have said that she thinks that no governor has left behind a worse financial mess than Pawlenty. He has not been a popular governor of Minnesota and in spite of all his campaigning, has low name recognition.

I feel Pawlenty has no chance of being nominated, but, because there are better informed people than I who think differently, I include him in the list. His poor record in balancing the state budget, and short-term solutions of using borrowing from designated funds was sure to come back to haunt him and he has left the state with a $5 billion deficit. I feel that his record is undeserving of being President. His opposition to any government run health care may appeal to some Republicans but not to me. I don't know the Republican view of raising fees, but they could view them as increased taxes (If so, Romney has the same problem.) He has campaigned a long time in Iowa and doesn't seem to have gotten any traction. Michelle Bachman will probably take the religious right vote in Iowa and is currently thought to be the leading candidate to win in Iowa.

At least right now, the above seem to be the most viable candidates. Newt Gringrich has been caught telling the truth which is always dangerous for a politician (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/05/truth-is-dangerous-for-politicians.html). There are two currently undeclared politicians , however, that need to be considered:

James (Rick) Perry: Parry apparently is seriously considering entering the Republican presidential race at the urgings of his wife and other supporters after repeatedly saying he was not interested. He attended college at Texas A&M. He served in the air force, retired as a Captain, and returned to helping his father grow cotton. As lieutenant governor, he became governor of Texas when George W. Bush resigned to become president, but, since then, he has been reelected three times.# He is the longest serving governor of Texas and is currently Chairman of the Republican Governor's Association. His wife Anita is a nurse who has been active in a number health issues and has formed the Anita Thigpen Endowment at the U. Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio. Originally, Perry was elected to the state house as a fiscally conservative Democrat and was Chairman of the Al Gore campaign in Texas. Interesting fact: he worked for awhile as a book salesman.

Perry joined the Republican party in 1989. He was Agricultural commissioner for two terms. He narrowly was elected Lieutenant Governor in 1998, the first Republican to hold the position since Reconstruction, and he became governor in 2000. He was reelected by a plurality of less than 40%. In a campaign financing scandal, Perry ended up paying Chris Bell, a competitor $426,000 to settle the suit. Though he was initially a strong proponent of health care, he has subsequently tapered back his interest resulting in refusal of Federal government matching funds. Like Romney and Pawlenty, Perry raised fees. He also borrowed from the Federal Unemployment Trust Fund to help balance the budget. He was reelected on a promise to reduce property taxes, which he did. He has also set the Texas record in use of his veto authority. He has opposed gambling and increasing cigarette taxes. He has made 23 foreign trips with the state covering only 1% of his costs, but the security detail costs have totaled more than a million dollars. Perry strongly opposed the 16th amendment that authorizes Federal income tax. He subscribes as nearly as I can tell to all the tenants of the religious right: he supports the death penalty and is pro-life, opposes all legal recognition of same sex marriages, restricts abortions, doesn't believe in anthropogenic caused global warming, and supports the teaching of Intelligent Design along side of Evolution. He promoted a Day of Prayer and Fasting and more recently Days of Prayer for Rain in Texas. Parry has been a strong advocate of education, refusing to cut teachers salaries, text books, etc. He did break with the Christian Right by mandating Texas girls receive HPV vaccine for papilloma virus. He has strongly promoted improved transportation in Texas through use of management and partial funding by private industry. Texas is considered to have maybe the best transportation system.

Though he never actually said that Texas should secede from the Union, he did mention (falsely) that Texas has the right to secede if she wants to. Though I grant him his right of free speech to say such things, I view it as un-patriotic and unworthy of a President of the United States. His biggest support for a nomination run comes from the extraordinary jobs increase in Texas during his reign. Unfortunately, the Texas tax base is so low, that the state faces a very large deficit problem (with estimates as high as $27 billion) that could hurt him if he were to run for the Republican nomination.#

Sarah Palin: The mother of five children (including one that she knew had Downs syndrome), was the youngest and first woman governor of Alaska when she was chosen by John McCain to be his vice-presidential running mate. Barack Obama won the election, however, and Palin resigned the governorship under a cloud of ethics violations and law suits.## This allowed her to cash in on her celebrity or "higher calling." She has a large and worshipful following and is said to "take the air out of the room" from anyone else present. She is a member of the Religious Right and even led the Fellowship of Christian Athletes in high school where she played basketball and ran cross-country. She was co-captain of her high school basketball team that won the state championship in 1982. Her family moved often, and she attended various colleges, eventually graduating from the Univ. of Idaho with a BA in communications with an emphasis on journalism. Interesting fact: She worked for awhile as a sportscaster and sports reporter. Her political career started in 1992 when she was elected to be a member of the City Council of Wasilla, a position she held for two years. Then she was elected Mayor of Wasilla where she served for the limit of two three-year terms.

She used the income from a 2% sales tax to cut personal property taxes by 75% and eliminate personal property and business inventory taxes that is credited to bringing big-box stores to Wasilla. She raised the sales tax by half a percent and floated a bond issue to build a municipal sports center. She increased the cities debt from $1 million to $25 million because of bond issues for the sports complex, street improvements and water improvements. She joined other communities to hire a lobbyist which resulted in earmarks for her city government, youth shelter, a transportation hub, and sewer repairs. She became the chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas commission and began her ethics attacks against fellow Republicans that resulted in two resignations (The head of the Alaska Republican Party and the Attorney General). Palin was elected governor in 2006, promoted oil and gas development and continued her ethics emphasis. By all accounts she was a popular governor. She has been criticized for taking per diem of $58/day and reimbursement for family traveling with her on trips while she was governor. She did try to decrease Alaska's dependence on Federal funding, the largest per capita in the nation. In the famous "Bridge To Nowhere" debacle, though initially she was in favor of the bridge (that was to the airport), Pain cancelled the bridge project but did not return the $442 million of Federal funding. Her awarding a large contract to TransCanada Pipelines to study a natural gas pipeline to bring natural gas from the north slopes to the lower 48 is may be her biggest achievement. Like Michelle Bachman, Sarah Palin has been the source of much unintended humor.##

Palin is a member of the religious right and opposes same sex marriage, abortion (including cases of rape and incest), embryonic stem cell research, Obamacare, bans on semi-automatic assault weapons, cap and trade for carbon dioxide (cap and trade for sulfur emissions has been in effect since 1990). She does support sex education involving abstinence and contraception, parental consent in cases of abortion for teen aged girls, teaching of creationism alongside evolution, gun safety training of youth, and capital punishment. She also supports off-shore drilling and exploration in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).## She supported the Iraq military adventure (with some reservations) and the surge. Her putting Rep. "Gabby" Giffords in her crosshairs prior to Gifford's attempted assassination has been roundly criticized.

In addition to the increases in sales taxes mentioned above, Palin put through a major tax increase on oil companies in Alaska that raised $6 billion the first year (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008103325_alaskatax07.html); however, Palin followers seem to forgive her for anything including a charge of poor parenting because of one daughter's out of wedlock baby. Though Palin has not declared to run for the Republican nomination she has not shut the door to it either. It seems to me, however, that her time to have declared has passed with Michelle Backman officially in the race as they appeal to the same people, but Palin's outstanding celebrity might put her in good stead. If Palin were to run, her increasing sales taxes and a major increase in tax on the oil companies in Alaska might come back to hurt her. So far as I know, the take by Palin handicappers is that she will not run.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.

** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney

In turning around companies, usually lots of people get laid off; however, if the company isn't turned around and the company fails, everybody gets laid off. So turnarounds are the better of the two choices.

*** http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/the-10-craziest-michele-bachmann-quotes; http://www.alternet.org/story/151439/psycho_talk%3A_the_32_craziest_things_gop_presidential_contender_michele_bachmann_has_said?akid=7203.290103.OJPh0B&rd=1&t=3

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Bachmann

**** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Pawlenty

# http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Perry

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/04/us-usa-deficits-states-idUSTRE71314420110204

##http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin

http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/why-sarah-palin-resigned---the-real-story/question-1845233/

Note: I also support oil exploration in ANWR.

http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/sarahpalin/a/palinisms.htm