GDP, INVENTORIES, HOUSING, UNEMPLOYMENT ALL LOOKING GOOD

Everything seems to be go on the economy.  The GDP is up.*  For some time inventories have been the biggest drag on the economy (see figure in New Analysis of GDP),** but even inventories finally seem to be working off.*

GDP: “The bigger-than-expected 2.9% annualized gain in third-quarter GDP growth confirms that the economic recovery has regained some of the momentum lost within the last year. As such, this leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise interest rates in December and a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting isn’t entirely out of the question.” —Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics*

(Click on figure to enlarge)**

INVENTORIES: Inventories offered a tailwind for third-quarter growth, with change in private stockpiles contributing 0.61 percentage point to the quarter’s 2.9% growth rate. Inventories had been a drag on overall growth for the prior five quarters. An expected turnaround in inventories was one reason many economists have predicted stronger economic growth in the second half of the year.**


HOMEOWNERSHIP: The nation’s homeownership rate, which has dropped sharply for years, could be at a turning point. It hit 63.5% in the third quarter, the Census Bureau said Thursday. That is a significant jump from the prior quarter, when it hit 62.9%, the lowest point in 51 years.***

UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended Oct. 22, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

That marked 86 straight weeks that claims have been below the 300,000 threshold, which is normally associated with a strong job market. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller. This means that the number of claims per 100,000 people is the lowest ever.****
...............................................................
The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 15,000 to 2.04 million in the week ended Oct. 15, the lowest reading since June 2000.

The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims declined 6,250 to 2.05 million. That was the lowest level since July 2000. The continuing claims data covered the period of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is calculated.****

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/new-analysis-of-gdp.html
 http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/28/economists-react-to-third-quarter-gdp-the-u-s-is-roughly-on-track/?mod=djemRTE_h
 http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/28/us-advance-q3-gdp.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/new-analysis-of-gdp.html
 http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2016/10/28/third-quarter-u-s-gdp-at-a-glance/
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/27/after-hitting-a-51-year-low-the-homeownership-rates-on-the-rise/?mod=djemRTE_h
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/homeownership-crawls-back-up-from-50-year-low.html
**** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/27/us-weekly-jobless-claims-oct-22-2016.html

DRUG COSTS: PAY FOR DELAY

 It is possible to shop around to buy prescription drugs. If you think CVS is too high, there are alternatives like Rite Aid (for awhile anyway) or other so-called drug stores. There is genuine competition among drug stores, but there isn't any competition among pharmaceutical companies.

Pharmaceutical companies are where the real problem is. My b***h is one company buys a drug from another company and then jack up the price 1000%, perhaps even though the drug in question is generic. I give examples of jacking up the prices at "Where Is Teddy Roosevelt When We Need Him:" *

A good example that has been getting a lot of press is the Epipin, that should be a $40 item (allowing for a 100% markup), but Mylan has jacked up the price to $600. Actually my nonprofit backup health insurance plan sells it for something over $200 (for two) which is still an outrageous price.

An example  given here of how phamaceuticals circumvent the law is Lipitor (italics are quotes) when it was close to coming off patent:

One tactic that helps brand-name drug companies retain revenue when their products’patents are close to expiring is entering into what is known as a “pay-for-delay” agreement. According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), brand-name drug companies can delay generic competition by agreeing to pay a generic competitor to hold its competing product off the market for a certain period of time. These agreements typically arise as part of the patent litigation settlement process between brand-name and generic drug manufacturers.
....................................
Generic drug manufacturer Ranbaxy Laboratories was the first manufacturer to file for FDA approval of its generic version of Lipitor, submitting its application in 2003.17 In 2008, Pfizer and Ranbaxy reportedly entered into an agreement that Pfizer would stoptrying to block Ranbaxy’s efforts to launch its product if Ranbaxy delayed introductionuntil November 2011.18 In return, Ranbaxy gained the right to sell a generic version ofthe significantly less popular drug Caduet, a combination pill of Lipitor and the bloodpressure drug Norvasc, seven years earlier than would have otherwise been possible.**

From 2006 through 2009, Pfizer increased the price of Liptor by 4.0 to 4.5% a year. In 2010 it jacked up the price by 9.3%, in 2011 by 17.5% and in 20012 by 9.9%. From 2006 to 2012 the annual cost of Liptor treatment for a patient increased from $1,290/yr to $2,140/yr.* Note this period goes right through the economic Armageddon.  Actually the price should have fallen, once the development costs were paid off.   OK maybe continue for a year or two to help defray failed attempton other drugs.  Instead the cost kept steadily rising.

The cited report is long but well worth reading to see how pharmaceutical companies circumvent generic drugs to be produced. The example above in italics is only one of many. See the cited article for other examples.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/where-is-teddy-roosevelt-when-we-need.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/pharmaceuticals.html

I'M BEGINNING TO FEEL SORRY FOR ....

Megyn Kelly, the pretty 45 yr old commentator for Fox News who was bullied by Donald Trump last August 6th in the first Presidential election debate after she said to Trump. “You’ve called women you don’t like fat pigs, dogs, slobs and disgusting animals.”  Trump later said, during the primaries, that there was "blood coming out of her wherever" *

After a few peaceful months, a second  member of theTrump "Elderly W omanizer  Triumvirate" Newt Gingrach bullied her again on Tuesday night (Oct. 25)
"I mean do you want to go back through the tapes on your show recently?" Gingrich asked. "You are fascinated with sex and you don't care about public policy."*

To which Mz Kelly responded, "You know what Mr. Speaker, I'm not fascinated by sex but I am fascinated by the protection of women and understanding what we're getting in the Oval Office."*

When is Megyn Kelly going to learn that pretty women are ornaments and exist for the pleasure of men?  Maybe now it is the other way around.  When are Elderly Male Womanizers going to learn that modern women can't be bullied?

Can Rudy Giuliani, the third member of the Elderly Womanizer Triumvirate, be far behind?  Oh, he has confessed his sins and says he is reformed.  I like a redemption story as much as the next guy, but I hope there is no recidivism.

* http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/history-donald-trump-megyn-kelly-feud/story?id=36526503

DETROIT ?

Bankrate has published an article containing a table of the best cities in which to build wealth.  I guess San Francisco being the best is no surprise, but DETROIT the fifth best?  The table is interactive in the cited article.  A big fatcor in wealth building is the rapidity of increases in property values in addition to income inflation..

(Click on Table to enlarge)

If you want to estimate your net worth (or wealth) see: http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/smart-spending/personal-net-worth-calculator.aspx

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/savings/what-makes-cities-good-for-building-wealth.aspx

UNEMPLOYMENT BY STATE AND WAGE GROWTH BY RACE

UNEMPLOYMENT BY STATE

The WSJ continues its coverage of unemployment (see Unemployment and Poverty in Cities.*). Ten states have unemployment rates under 4%.** (see table)  In addition:   Another 10 states have unemployment rates under 4.5% (not shown).    Quotes are in italics in the following discussion: Among [political battleground states], North Carolina posted the biggest drop in unemployment over the past year, with the rate falling a full percentage point to 4.7% in September.

 (Click on figure to enlarge)(For more states, see reference.)

Unemployment fell by eight-tenths of a point to 5.8% in both Nevada and West Virginia. It fell half a point in Georgia (5.1% in September), Michigan (4.6%) and Wisconsin(4.1%). It dropped fourth-tenths in Arizona (5.5%), Florida (4.7%) and New Hampshire(2.9%).
Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose eight-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania (5.7%), sixth-tenths in Iowa (4.2%) and two-tenths in Ohio (4.8%)**.

WAGE GAINS BY RACE

Though all races have shown sharp wage gains The recent gains mean the increase in earnings for blacks since the recession ended in mid-2009, 15.7%, is now outpacing the gain for whites, 13.3%, and Latinos, 15.5%. But bulk of the improvement for blacks and Latinos has occurred in the past two years.*** (see figure)

 (Click on figure to enlarge)

Despite recent gains, the pay gap between races is wide. Median weekly pay for blacks in the third quarter of 2016 was $685, versus $854 for whites and $632 for Latinos.  The data is  [SIC] consistent with the argument put forth by some economists that wage gains for minority groups tend to be most pronounced when the economy is near full employment.***  Looking at the figure above, it looks like Asians have had the most difficult recovery from the Great Recession.  The wage gains come alongside lower levels of unemployment and stronger labor-force participation among blacks.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/unemployment-and-poverty-in-cities.html
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/21/unemployment-fell-in-nine-of-12-swing-states-from-a-year-ago/?mod=djemRTE_h
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/20/black-workers-see-fastest-wage-growth-in-more-than-15-years/?mod=djemRTE_h

UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGE GROWTH

UNEMPLOYMENT BY STATE

The WSJ continues its coverage of unemployment (see Unemployment and Poverty in Cities.*). Ten states have unemployment rates under 4%.** (see table)  In addition:   Another 10 states have unemployment rates under 4.5% (not shown).    Quotes are in italics in the following discussion: Among [political battleground states], North Carolina posted the biggest drop in unemployment over the past year, with the rate falling a full percentage point to 4.7% in September.

 (Click on figure to enlarge)(For more states, see reference.)

Unemployment fell by eight-tenths of a point to 5.8% in both Nevada and West Virginia. It fell half a point in Georgia (5.1% in September), Michigan (4.6%) and Wisconsin(4.1%). It dropped fourth-tenths in Arizona (5.5%), Florida (4.7%) and New Hampshire(2.9%).
Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose eight-tenths of a point in Pennsylvania (5.7%), sixth-tenths in Iowa (4.2%) and two-tenths in Ohio (4.8%)**.

WAGE GAINS BY RACE

Though all races have shown sharp wage gains The recent gains mean the increase in earnings for blacks since the recession ended in mid-2009, 15.7%, is now outpacing the gain for whites, 13.3%, and Latinos, 15.5%. But bulk of the improvement for blacks and Latinos has occurred in the past two years.*** (see figure)

 (Click on figure to enlarge)

Despite recent gains, the pay gap between races is wide. Median weekly pay for blacks in the third quarter of 2016 was $685, versus $854 for whites and $632 for Latinos.  The data is  [SIC] consistent with the argument put forth by some economists that wage gains for minority groups tend to be most pronounced when the economy is near full employment.***  Looking at the figure above, it looks like Asians have had the most difficult recovery from the Great Recession.  The wage gains come alongside lower levels of unemployment and stronger labor-force participation among blacks.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/unemployment-and-poverty-in-cities.html
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/21/unemployment-fell-in-nine-of-12-swing-states-from-a-year-ago/?mod=djemRTE_h
*** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/20/black-workers-see-fastest-wage-growth-in-more-than-15-years/?mod=djemRTE_h

UNEMPLOYMENT AND POVERTY IN CITIES

WSJ has published an interesting article refuting Donald Trump's claim of  45% poverty with jobs essentially nonexistent (I urge you to read the full article),  Following are quotes from the article in italics:*

“You go into the inner cities and you see it’s 45% poverty,” [Mr. Trump] said during the second presidential debate. “African-Americans now—45% poverty in the inner cities. The education is a disaster. Jobs are essentially nonexistent.”
...........................................................
UNEMPLOYMENT
Here’s one way to look at it: The Brookings Institution provided economic data for the largest city within each of the 15 largest metro areas. The data is derived from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
.........................................................................
Just two of those  [15] cities—Atlanta and Detroit—lost jobs since 2009, the year PresidentBarack Obama took office. Washington, with a 22.9% increase, led the nation in in job creation, followed by Seattle, Riverside, Calif., and San Francisco.
........................................................................
Employment of black and Hispanic workers rose in nearly all the cities from 2009 to 2015, while white employment declined in half of the cities. 
Black employment increased 44.5% in Phoenix, the nation’s largest increase. It fell 12.5% in Detroit from 2009 to 2015. Latino employment rose 36.8% in Philadelphia, but fell in Detroit and was flat in Dallas. Racial data wasn’t available for all 15 cities due to small sample sizes.

(Click on figure to enlarge)
.........................................................................
POVERTY

None of the 15 cities had a black poverty rate as high as 45% [as Mr. Trump suggests]But the rate for black residents last year was 39.4% in Detroit, 35.8% in Miami and 31.5% in Chicago. The overall poverty rate last year was 13.5%. The rate for blacks nationwide was 24.1%.

The disparity between whites, blacks and Latinos was quite large in some cities. In San Francisco, 8.9% of whites lived in poverty last year. The rate for blacks was 33.1%, and for Latinos 14.4%. In Houston, where the white rate was 8.4% last year, the black rate was 25.8%, and the Latino rate 27%.

It’s not the dismal jobless landscape Mr. Trump suggests. But in some of America’s cities, there are glaring inequalities.

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/10/19/what-donald-trump-gets-right-and-wrong-about-americas-inner-cities/?mod=djemRTE_h

THE SCALE OF LYING

The scale of lying is called the Trump.  No one rates a full Trump in the number of lies per minute, well perhaps a few globally, so the standard unit is the milli-Trump or one thousandth of a full Trump.  It is pretty hard to get to a full Trump, i.e. lie every 5 min. as someone counted.*  The Huffington Post found Trump lied 71 times in a hour in a Town Hall or 1.16 falsehoods per minute!**

Let's say I tell a lie every morning.  This is probably overestimating it because most mornings I don't even see anyone, but, OK, let's say I lie to myself once every morning.  I usually get up around 8:00 AM so there are 4 hrs in which I'm estimating I tell a lie.  Since there are 240 min. in 4 hrs,  Trump will tell about 48 lies (240/5) so for me it is (1/240)/1000 (for 1 thousandth of a full Trump) for a Trump ratio of 1/48 or 0.00208 or a Trump rating of  20.8 (thousandth's of a Trump) per morning, if I've done my math right.  This might be pretty average, I would think, but maybe there are those who tell a lie every hour for a Trump rating of 83.2.  You see the difficulty of getting to a full Trump.

Maybe I'm more likely to tell a lie in the afternoon, when I actually see someone at lunch, so let's say I lie to someone and lie to myself again for 2 lies in the afternoon.  Again I usually see someone at dinner for lets' say another two lies (one to someone and one to myself).  This makes 5 lies/day.  It sounds high, but maybe.  So we have 4 hrs in the morning, five hours in the afternoon and another 3  hrs for dinner to going early to bed making 12 hrs or 720 min.  In this period, Trump would tell about 144 lies, but I estimate I tell only 5 for a Trump rating of 34.7.  I know how this ranks for the average person, it may be high, but you get the idea.

* http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/politico-fact-checking-trump-statements/2016/03/14/id/718973/
** http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-fact-check_us_56fc375fe4b0daf53aee9175

WOMEN AND CONFIDENCE AND BETTER WATCH OUT

Lest women think that their threat is only from the likes of Donald Trump, the legal system and congress has women under attack, and not just on abortion and contraceptives.

So Sit up straight and pull in your abs. Holding your chin up and nodding your head occasionally also projects confidence. It makes people think you’re engaged.*

Yet, in just the past year, the Iowa Supreme Court ruled that a woman can be fired if her boss finds her attractive, a New York court decided that unpaid interns can't sue for sexual harassment, and the Paycheck Fairness Act was defeated by Republicans who claimed women actually prefer lower-paying jobs.**

I couldn't believe that:  a woman can be fired if her boss finds her attractive; a New York court decided that unpaid interns can't sue for sexual harassment; or the Paycheck Fairness Act was defeated by Republicans who claimed women actually prefer lower-paying jobs as stated above so I Googled them,  Apparently everyone knows about these cases but me and they certainly are true.  It is because an attractive woman can be a threat to a marriage because he is afraid he will have an affair with her;  unpaid interns are not considered employees; women are lower paid so they are less likely to be laid off!***

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_on_Women* http://www.toryburch.com/blog-post/blog-post.html?bpid=102251; http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/04/the-confidence-gap/359815/
** http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/23/female-confidence-gap-katty-kay-claire-shipman
*** http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/dentist-fired-pretty-irresistible-dentist-employee-acted-legally-court-article-1.1397245; http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/10/09/unpaid-intern-sexual-harassment/2953595/:  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/09/1290718/-Fox-host-Lower-pay-is-good-for-women-because-they-re-less-likely-to-be-laid-off

TRUMP STALKING HILLARY

What Donald Trump fails to realize is that Hillary Clinton is tough, really tough.  Perhaps what I most admire about her is that she just keeps coming even though the Republican Party has viciously tried to destroy her for 25 yrs through lies and overemphasizing some faults.  To a great extent, the media has gone along - she doesn't smile enough, her big laugh sounds phony, she doesn't sound genuine, etc etc etc.  Personally I think her smile and laugh are just fine.  That is what you need in a glass ceiling breaker: Damn the torpedoes.  Full speed ahead.

You don't hear Hillary getting much credit for her life-long effort in providing for the betterment of children.  How can you say this is not genuine?.  She has even been criticized for writing a book titled, "It takes a Village To Raise A Child."   (https://www.amazon.com/Takes-Village-Tenth-Anniversary/dp/1416540644)  Well, negatives are more news worthy and Clinton's message is basically optimistic and upbeat.

Trump was stalking Hillary at the debate on Sunday night (October 10th).  Women found him "scary."  She should have called 911.
"If a man did that to me on the street ... I'd call 911, political commentator and former Republican strategist Nicolle Wallace said."*

And then there were the interruptions,  something he was criticized for in the first debate.  In the second debate he managed to interrupt Clinton six times in one Clinton answer.**  This may be some sort of a record.  Not only that, but he interrupted the moderator.**

Among other things, Trump says he will lock her up if he wins the presidency.  In fact the TV media has frequently shown the clip of Trump saying he will conduct an independent council to look at Hillary if he is elected.  I think they are supposed to spend roughly equal time on each candidate but they aren't.  All along, Trump has been getting free advertising worth millions of dollars.

Yet, Republicans seem to be reassured by Trump's belligerence.  "Morning Joe" Scarborough seems to be ecstatic over Trump's brawl Sunday night.  Early polls seem to show that Trump has recovered from the tape where he talks about his sexual exploits.  It is at times like this that I doubt the wisdom of the American voter, but as Winston Churchill said, " Indeed it has been said "...that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…"***

To me, Trump sounds like he is giving the dying gasps of the bull in the bullring.  Time will tell how much sympathy the voterrs have for the bull.  Whatever the outcome, I think the long friendship that used to be between The Donald and the Clintons is over for good.

* http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-presidential-debates/presidential-debate-trump-accused-stalking-clinton-stage-n663516
** http://fusion.net/story/355799/times-trump-interrupt-hillary-debate/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/in-debate-trump-takes-on-moderators-almost-as-much-as-clinton/2016/10/09/b668c192-8e7f-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html
*** https://richardlangworth.com/worst-form-of-government

SOME MEN HAVE IT, MOST DON'T

I'm 85 yrs old and , believe me, some men have IT, but most men don't.  I'm in the latter category.  No pretty young woman ever passed me and flipped up her blouse to show her bra strap.  In fact most women look straight ahead with a frozen gaze when they pass me going the other way.  But I know men who get a cheery hello and a nod.

As a young man, I had two male friends who I saw each have a couple of women actually fight over them, complete with slapping, brawling, hair pulling, and yelling, the works. One of the men I thought was ugly, but he had IT somehow I couldn't detect but women did.  His only real trait was to be sarcastic to women.  May women felt they had to change his mind?  No women ever fought over me.  I had a young scientist working for me.  Once a month we used to go out to lunch together and women from 3 to 83 would come up to our table and talk to him.  He had IT, but none wanted to talk to me.

I guess I was a prudish young man, and it must have stuck out all over me.  I recall being with a group of fellow geologists in a bar in Deadwood, SD, where all were propositioned but me.  It happened again in a bar in Ironwood, MI.  I lived in "sin city, of Zurich for five months and was never propositioned.  I was in Juarez, Mexico, with a group of geologists.   Even procurers could tell I wasn't a sale. As we walked down a street, the others were propositioned in various ways, but, for me, they said "razor blades, nice Gillette razor blades."  I wasn't the only one with a beard.

You want to know some man who has IT?  Bill Clinton has IT.  Women who were prepared not to like him said they felt his power upon meeting him.  My own wife said she felt it just watching him on TV.  Based on my life's observation, I think he never raped a woman, but some might have decided after the fact that they needed to think so for their self respect.

I knew Bill Clinton was a womanizer before he was elected, but I thought he wanted to accomplish things so much that he would keep his pants zipped.  I was wrong.  Being presented with a pretty young woman of 23 passing him and flipping her blouse to expose her bra strap was like handing a martini to an alcoholic. He couldn't resist.

I'm surprised that so many women think that it is unfair for a 40ish year old man to take "advantage" of a young woman who wants to be taken advantage of.   Didn't their mother's warn them?  Me they could resist.  Her mistake was bragging about the affair to a woman friend who blew the whistle.  With Jack Kennedy, they didn't Kiss and Tell.  Maybe it says something about how vulnerable women feel with men who have IT.

I think Donald Trump, a womanizer to be sure,* doesn't have IT, but he does have money.  Women have a saying, "You can never be too thin or have too much money."  Many parents want their daughters to marry a wealthy man and be unhappy in comfort.

* http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3202153/Donald-Trump-AMAZING-bed-claims-former-Penthouse-Pet-presidential-hopeful-secretary-track-spotting-sexy-magazine-spread.html
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/donald-trump-history-women-adultery-objectification-article-1.2604073
Etc.

ENABLING (Biographical)

I don't mean this to be in any sense political but it has been brought up.  I know something about enabling.  My first wife survived being in Latvia and Germany during WW-II, but, as we became secure, she became a sucker for alcohol and lapsed into alcoholism.  I'm reminded of the poem by Robert Service The Ballad Of The Northern Lights, "We kept our heads at the famine, but lost our heads at the feast."  If I yelled and shouted, it was all the more reason to drink.  If I kept silent, then it didn't bother me.  It seemed like anything I did enabled her drinking.

One day I realized that she was going down the tubes and was going to take me with her.  After 31 yrs we divorced and both are still alive today though I understand she is in bad shape.  After our divorce, I believe she pulled herself together pretty much.  You might ask, why did I stay in this situation for so long?  I had a prohibition against divorce.  No one in my family had been divorced Though some (many) of the husbands had alcohol problems.  Also the promise of  'til death do us part meant something to me.

True, alcoholism is different from sexual philandering, but I suspect the enabling factor is much the same.  If you yell and shout, it is all the more reason to seek out your "girlfriend" for commiseration.  If you are quiet, then the philandering doesn't bother you.

GLOBAL WARMING

Unfortunately, climate change wasn't discussed in the last Presidental debate, but carbon dioxide  has passed a ew milestone.

The world has blown past the 400 parts per million carbon dioxide milestone, and is unlikely to return below that threshold again in our lifetimes. It’s the biggest climate news of the week and quite possibly, the year. And it’s also a sobering reminder of what our carbon pollution problem is doing to the world.*

Included in the article is a carbon dioxide spiral by month and year since 1959 showing how carbon dioxide has increased.   The animated figure is by Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom.  I won't include a copy of the figure because you have to see it expanding before your eyes.  Also included is a reference to the earlier temperature spiral from 1850 to 2016 by the same author.*  You get to see the global temperature rising and falling through recent times.

(Click on figure to enlarge)**

And the problem is not just with carbon dioxide, but methane also is rising (and has 30X the effect as an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide): 
The study shows that even though fossil fuels development has polluted the atmosphere with up to 60 percent more methane than scientists previously thought, the main culprits behind the rise in global methane levels are wetlands, landfills, rice fields and belching cows***.

There is a recommendation that we whould write letters to our heirs about the lask of greenhouse gas buildup and increasing gtemperatures wasn't taken seriously in the Unite States during our lifetimes.

* https://www.climatecentral.org/news/400-ppm-carbon-dioxide-spiral-20748
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/see-earths-temperature-spiral-toward-2c-20332
** http://www.climatecentral.org/news/noaa-april-hottest-on-record-17466?wpisrc=nl_wonk
*** https://www.climatecentral.org/news/oil-gas-cows-culprits-in-methane-spike-20772

GEORGE W. BUSH IN RETROSPECT

I really can't be mad at George W. Bush because he never should have been president in the first place.  He was an unsuccessful business man who was repeatedly financially bailed out by someone, presumably a Saudi Prince.  The fault lies with us the electorate for electing him.  Wait, he wasn't elected by us, the Supreme Court chose him.  His opponent actually got more votes, but was done in by "hanging chads" and aggressiveness by Gays when Ohio was not ready for equality for them.

Granted there are lots of" landmines" in the way of a president becoming great.*  For example, in retrospect, Eisenhower looks pretty good.  He had positive cash flow twice in his presidential terms.  Only Clinton (Bill) has had more.  He made some fledgling moves on racial equality.   He got the interstate highway system.  Perhaps most important of all is that he showed us that sometimes the proper reaction to something is no action.

But then the Eisenhower negatives.  He overthrew a duly elected prime minister in Iran for wanting the same oil deal from BP (actually the forerunner of BP)  as Egypt got (half the profits).  Things have been downhill with Iran ever since.  And then there was the Hungarian uprising where we fomented them to revolt and then abandoned them.

But George W. Bush (Bush-43) had two absolute disasters that he plunged us into.  One was going to war in the Middle East, something we have been mired in ever since.  The other was the Great Recession  (It is not PC to use the word depression any more) because he believed that the financial industry is "self correcting" and didn't need regulation.  All of a sudden banks, as a result of the lack of regulation, stopped being staid conservative institutions and became go-go organizations.   It didn't help that he also got a tax cut during the war that was performed on the cuff. We are still mired in both disasters but have done much, much better on the recovering economy that should be called The Great Recovery.

Many pretend to see no difference between a recession and a depression.  Recessions are usually due to large buildup of inventories and recover when inventories work their way down whereas depressions are a collapse of a financial system and are self perpetuating unless something drastic is done.

There are those who say that the Great Depression was not overcome until WW-II with its enforced savings through rationing and lack of goods and a continued low birthrate.  In the Great Recession, there is no all consuming distraction such as a World War, which is a great tragedy and certainly not to be recommended.  Industry has to work its way out of the Great Recession with minor help by a congress (other than a small "stimulus program") that refused to have a major infrastructure program to help things along.

In fairness to Bush, once he recognized what he had done, he did start some action to save our financial system through the TARP Program, that Obama continued.   But a lot of damage had already been done.   Though saving the banks has been controversial, it was a key to the Great Recovery we have witnessed by President Obama.

Bush, of course did have some positives, perhaps the most important being Medicare-D (prescription drug coverage), though he left it up to the insurance industry to find a way to pay for it.  He did recognize the importance of Hispanics to our culture.  "Leave No child Behind" was well intended if much hated by the teaching community.

I will also give Bush credit for going to war in Afghanistan because we had to do something after the 9/11 (2001) attacks, even if it ended badly.  President Reagan on the other had "cut and run" from Lebanon after the Marine Barracks massacre and embassy bombings in Lebanon and Kuwait, emboldening the terrorists into believing that, if we were hit hard, we would just withdraw.

George W. Bush's two disasters, unfortunately, greatly outweigh everything else and make him a candidate for the worst president ever, certainly a big step worse than President Hoover.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/05/land-mines-in-way-of-becoming-great.html

REMARKABLE ECONOMY FORECAST

Another good news economic forecast has come out (As usual, I recommend reading the whole article):

At a time when markets find themselves distracted by anxiety in the financial sector, Wells Capital Management's Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen said he sees a healthy recovery coming on, thanks to positive trends among a few market indicators, he told CNBC Monday morning.
.................................................................
The strategist also said that this will be a slow but long-lasting recovery, possibly surpassing the record for the longest recovery for the United States, which stands at 10 years.

This forecast follows lots of other good news, such as CEOs forecasting a good economy for the next year* and a very good Consumer Confidence Index number  (104.1), the highest since 2007.**   Also there have now been 80 consecutive months with weekly jobless claims less than 300,000,*** the longest stretch since 1970 and a record for weekly jobless claims per 100,000 population.  The median household income increased last year by 5.2% and was a record.****  All sections of the country benefited.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/strategist-jim-paulsen-gear-up-for-the-longest-recovery-ever.htm
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/ceos-optimistic-about-next-year.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/consumer-confidence-in-september-is.htmll
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/jobless-claims-and-job-openings.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/how-good-do-things-have-to-get-before.html

STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE - II

This table is a continuation of STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/stocks-paying-increasing-dividends-for.html  Stocks are selected from the spread sheet of dFish on Drip  Investing: http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp Stocks Increasing Dividends For 50 Yrs Or More
Company	Ticker		1/31/14	Div.	9/30/16
Name	Symbol	Industry	Price	Yield	Price
Diebold Inc.	DBD	Business Equipment	33.59	3.42	No longer included
American States Water	AWR	Utility-Water	29.40	2.85	40.05
Dover Corp.	DOV	Machinery	86.56	1.73	73.54
Northwest Natural Gas	NWN	Utility-Gas	41.56	3.11	60.11
Parker-Hannifin Corp.	PH	Industrial Equipment	113.37	1.69	125.53
Genuine Parts Co.	GPC	Auto Parts	82.25	2.61	100.45
Procter & Gamble Co.	PG	Consumer Products	76.62	3.14	89.75
Emerson Electric	EMR	Industrial Equipment	65.94	2.61	54.51
3M Company	MMM	Conglomerate	128.19	2.67	176.23
Vectren Corp.	VVC	Utility-Electric/Gas	36.52	3.94	50.20
Cincinnati Financial	CINF	Insurance	48.45	3.63	75.42
Coca-Cola Company	KO	Beverages-Non-alcoholic	37.82	2.96	42.32
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ	Drugs/Consumer Prod.	88.47	2.98	118.13
Lowe's Companies	LOW	Retail-Home Improv.	46.29	1.56	72.21
Lancaster Colony Corp.	LANC	Food/Consumer Prod.	86.92	2.02	132.09
Colgate-Palmolive Co.	CL	Personal Products	61.23	2.22	74.14
Nordson Corp.	NDSN	Machinery	69.32	1.04	99.63
Farmers and Merchants	FMCB	Banking	?	2.18	600	New
Hormel Foods HRL		Food Processing	?	1.53	37.93	New

PHARMACEUTICALS

There are pharmaceutical companies that are clearly out of control with unbelievably wild price increases.*  Now someone looked into which pharmaceutical companies exist on raising the prices of drugs:**

 Among the companies she identified as among the worst offenders over the past five years were Horizon Pharma (HZNP), where price boosts produced 63% of sales growth above the rate of inflation, Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), where they accounted for 58% of sales gains, and Concordia International (CXRX), where they generated 51% of growth.

YET KNOWING which companies profited from jacking up prices isn’t enough to separate the winners from losers. Already, Horizon and Jazz have started shifting from business plans focused on higher prices to ones that rely on new products. Jazz, for instance, could get 36% of its revenue through 2020 from new drugs, including Defitelio, which treats blockages of blood vessels in the liver, and JZP-110, a narcolepsy treatment. Similarly, Horizon could get 45% of its growth from orphan drugs targeting rare illnesses. **

No doubt there are others.  Mylan and the generic Epi-Pin come to mind, for just one case.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/where-is-teddy-roosevelt-when-we-need.html
** http://www.barrons.com/articles/health-care-stocks-are-riskier-than-they-seem-1475300094?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns

STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE

Here is a list of 18 stocks with the longest number of years for increasing dividends.  You would have done pretty well if you owned the list.   The symbol DR means you can DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan)  and SP indicates if there are fees for DRIPPing.  Now for the first time, some stocks (there are 5) have increased their dividends for 60 or more consecutive years.  You have to do your own due diligence because Diebold hit 60 yrs and then stopped increasing their dividend.  So there is no guarantee that a company will remain on the list. Stocks are selected from the spread sheet of dFish on Drip  Investing: http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp

Stocks Increasing Dividends For 50 Yrs Or More
Company	Ticker		No.	CCC	DRIP Fees		1/31/14	Div.	9/30/16
Name	Symbol	Industry	Yrs	Seq	DR	SP	Price	Yield	Price
Diebold Inc.	DBD	Business Equipment	60	0	N	Y	33.59	3.42	No longer included
American States Water	AWR	Utility-Water	61	1	N	N	29.40	2.85	40.05
Dover Corp.	DOV	Machinery	60	2	Y	N	86.56	1.73	73.54
Northwest Natural Gas	NWN	Utility-Gas	60	3	N	N	41.56	3.11	60.11
Parker-Hannifin Corp.	PH	Industrial Equipment	59	6	N	N	113.37	1.69	125.53
Genuine Parts Co.	GPC	Auto Parts	60	4	N	N	82.25	2.61	100.45
Procter & Gamble Co.	PG	Consumer Products	60	5	N	Y	76.62	3.14	89.75
Emerson Electric	EMR	Industrial Equipment	59	7	N	N	65.94	2.61	54.51
3M Company	MMM	Conglomerate	58	8	N	N	128.19	2.67	176.23
Vectren Corp.	VVC	Utility-Electric/Gas	56	9	N	N	36.52	3.94	50.20
Cincinnati Financial	CINF	Insurance	56	10	N	N	48.45	3.63	75.42
Coca-Cola Company	KO	Beverages-Non-alcoholic	54	11	Y	Y	37.82	2.96	42.32
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ	Drugs/Consumer Prod.	54	12	N	N	88.47	2.98	118.13
Lowe's Companies	LOW	Retail-Home Improv.	54	13	N	Y	46.29	1.56	72.21
Lancaster Colony Corp.	LANC	Food/Consumer Prod.	53	14	N	N	86.92	2.02	132.09
Colgate-Palmolive Co.	CL	Personal Products	53	15	Y	Y	61.23	2.22	74.14
Nordson Corp.	NDSN	Machinery	53	16	N	N	69.32	1.04	99.63
Farmers and Merchants	FMCB	Banking	51	17			?	2.18	600
Hormel Foods		Food Processing	50	18	N	N	?	1.53	37.93
*	Need to raise dividend to keep streak in tact

PARKINSON'S LAW

I guess you have to be about my age to know about C. Northcote Parkinson* and Parkinson's Law** which is "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion",  It is a pity people have lost awareness of this valuable statement.  It was first published in a couple of articles in the magazine, The Economist, in 1955 and came out a a small book in 1957.

My favorite phrase (that I have paraphrased before***) is  "Buildings for the League of Nations were finished in 1938 and so was the League of Nations." 

A number of corollaries have been proposed for Parkinson's Law:

The first-referenced meaning of the law has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries, the best known being the Stock–Sanford corollary to Parkinson's law:**

If you wait until the last minute, it only takes a minute to do.^[5]

Other corollaries include Horstman's corollary to Parkinson's law:

Work contracts to fit in the time we give it.^[6]

as well as corollaries relating to computers, such as:

Data expands to fill the space available for storage.

I too have come up with a Corollary: 

          A job expands to cover all the flat spaces available.

You can still buy copies of this book, but they are expensive, I'm sorry to say.  Even warn paperback copies cost about $18 on Amazon.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Northcote_Parkinson
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/07/league-of-nations-all-over-again.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html