Saturday, October 8, 2016

GLOBAL WARMING

Unfortunately, climate change wasn't discussed in the last Presidental debate, but carbon dioxide  has passed a ew milestone.

The world has blown past the 400 parts per million carbon dioxide milestone, and is unlikely to return below that threshold again in our lifetimes. It’s the biggest climate news of the week and quite possibly, the year. And it’s also a sobering reminder of what our carbon pollution problem is doing to the world.*

Included in the article is a carbon dioxide spiral by month and year since 1959 showing how carbon dioxide has increased.   The animated figure is by Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom.  I won't include a copy of the figure because you have to see it expanding before your eyes.  Also included is a reference to the earlier temperature spiral from 1850 to 2016 by the same author.*  You get to see the global temperature rising and falling through recent times.
(Click on figure to enlarge)**

And the problem is not just with carbon dioxide, but methane also is rising (and has 30X the effect as an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide): 
The study shows that even though fossil fuels development has polluted the atmosphere with up to 60 percent more methane than scientists previously thought, the main culprits behind the rise in global methane levels are wetlands, landfills, rice fields and belching cows***.

There is a recommendation that we whould write letters to our heirs about the lask of greenhouse gas buildup and increasing gtemperatures wasn't taken seriously in the Unite States during our lifetimes.

* https://www.climatecentral.org/news/400-ppm-carbon-dioxide-spiral-20748
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/see-earths-temperature-spiral-toward-2c-20332
** http://www.climatecentral.org/news/noaa-april-hottest-on-record-17466?wpisrc=nl_wonk
*** https://www.climatecentral.org/news/oil-gas-cows-culprits-in-methane-spike-20772

Thursday, October 6, 2016

GEORGE W. BUSH IN RETROSPECT

I really can't be mad at George W. Bush because he never should have been president in the first place.  He was an unsuccessful business man who was repeatedly financially bailed out by someone, presumably a Saudi Prince.  The fault lies with us the electorate for electing him.  Wait, he wasn't elected by us, the Supreme Court chose him.  His opponent actually got more votes, but was done in by "hanging chads" and aggressiveness by Gays when Ohio was not ready for equality for them.

Granted there are lots of" landmines" in the way of a president becoming great.*  For example, in retrospect, Eisenhower looks pretty good.  He had positive cash flow twice in his presidential terms.  Only Clinton (Bill) has had more.  He made some fledgling moves on racial equality.   He got the interstate highway system.  Perhaps most important of all is that he showed us that sometimes the proper reaction to something is no action.

But then the Eisenhower negatives.  He overthrew a duly elected prime minister in Iran for wanting the same oil deal from BP (actually the forerunner of BP)  as Egypt got (half the profits).  Things have been downhill with Iran ever since.  And then there was the Hungarian uprising where we fomented them to revolt and then abandoned them.

But George W. Bush (Bush-43) had two absolute disasters that he plunged us into.  One was going to war in the Middle East, something we have been mired in ever since.  The other was the Great Recession  (It is not PC to use the word depression any more) because he believed that the financial industry is "self correcting" and didn't need regulation.  All of a sudden banks, as a result of the lack of regulation, stopped being staid conservative institutions and became go-go organizations.   It didn't help that he also got a tax cut during the war that was performed on the cuff. We are still mired in both disasters but have done much, much better on the recovering economy that should be called The Great Recovery.

Many pretend to see no difference between a recession and a depression.  Recessions are usually due to large buildup of inventories and recover when inventories work their way down whereas depressions are a collapse of a financial system and are self perpetuating unless something drastic is done.

There are those who say that the Great Depression was not overcome until WW-II with its enforced savings through rationing and lack of goods and a continued low birthrate.  In the Great Recession, there is no all consuming distraction such as a World War, which is a great tragedy and certainly not to be recommended.  Industry has to work its way out of the Great Recession with minor help by a congress (other than a small "stimulus program") that refused to have a major infrastructure program to help things along.

In fairness to Bush, once he recognized what he had done, he did start some action to save our financial system through the TARP Program, that Obama continued.   But a lot of damage had already been done.   Though saving the banks has been controversial, it was a key to the Great Recovery we have witnessed by President Obama.

Bush, of course did have some positives, perhaps the most important being Medicare-D (prescription drug coverage), though he left it up to the insurance industry to find a way to pay for it.  He did recognize the importance of Hispanics to our culture.  "Leave No child Behind" was well intended if much hated by the teaching community.

I will also give Bush credit for going to war in Afghanistan because we had to do something after the 9/11 (2001) attacks, even if it ended badly.  President Reagan on the other had "cut and run" from Lebanon after the Marine Barracks massacre and embassy bombings in Lebanon and Kuwait, emboldening the terrorists into believing that, if we were hit hard, we would just withdraw.

George W. Bush's two disasters, unfortunately, greatly outweigh everything else and make him a candidate for the worst president ever, certainly a big step worse than President Hoover.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/05/land-mines-in-way-of-becoming-great.html

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

REMARKABLE ECONOMY FORECAST

Another good news economic forecast has come out (As usual, I recommend reading the whole article):

At a time when markets find themselves distracted by anxiety in the financial sector, Wells Capital Management's Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen said he sees a healthy recovery coming on, thanks to positive trends among a few market indicators, he told CNBC Monday morning.
.................................................................
The strategist also said that this will be a slow but long-lasting recovery, possibly surpassing the record for the longest recovery for the United States, which stands at 10 years.

This forecast follows lots of other good news, such as CEOs forecasting a good economy for the next year* and a very good Consumer Confidence Index number  (104.1), the highest since 2007.**   Also there have now been 80 consecutive months with weekly jobless claims less than 300,000,*** the longest stretch since 1970 and a record for weekly jobless claims per 100,000 population.  The median household income increased last year by 5.2% and was a record.****  All sections of the country benefited.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/strategist-jim-paulsen-gear-up-for-the-longest-recovery-ever.htm
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/ceos-optimistic-about-next-year.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/consumer-confidence-in-september-is.htmll
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/jobless-claims-and-job-openings.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/how-good-do-things-have-to-get-before.html

Monday, October 3, 2016

STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE - II


This table is a continuation of

STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE

http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/stocks-paying-increasing-dividends-for.html  Stocks are selected from the spread sheet of dFish on Drip  Investing: http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp

Stocks Increasing Dividends For 50 Yrs Or More
Company Ticker 1/31/14 Div. 9/30/16
Name Symbol Industry Price Yield Price
Diebold Inc. DBD Business Equipment 33.59 3.42 No longer included
American States Water AWR Utility-Water 29.40 2.85 40.05
Dover Corp. DOV Machinery 86.56 1.73 73.54
Northwest Natural Gas NWN Utility-Gas 41.56 3.11 60.11
Parker-Hannifin Corp. PH Industrial Equipment 113.37 1.69 125.53
Genuine Parts Co. GPC Auto Parts 82.25 2.61 100.45
Procter & Gamble Co. PG Consumer Products 76.62 3.14 89.75
Emerson Electric EMR Industrial Equipment 65.94        2.61 54.51
3M Company MMM Conglomerate 128.19 2.67 176.23
Vectren Corp. VVC Utility-Electric/Gas 36.52 3.94 50.20
Cincinnati Financial CINF Insurance 48.45 3.63 75.42
Coca-Cola Company KO Beverages-Non-alcoholic 37.82        2.96 42.32
Johnson & Johnson JNJ Drugs/Consumer Prod. 88.47 2.98 118.13
Lowe's Companies LOW Retail-Home Improv. 46.29 1.56 72.21
Lancaster Colony Corp. LANC Food/Consumer Prod. 86.92 2.02 132.09
Colgate-Palmolive Co. CL Personal Products 61.23 2.22 74.14
Nordson Corp. NDSN Machinery 69.32 1.04 99.63
Farmers and Merchants FMCB Banking ? 2.18 600 New
Hormel Foods HRL Food Processing ? 1.53 37.93 New

Sunday, October 2, 2016

PHARMACEUTICALS

There are pharmaceutical companies that are clearly out of control with unbelievably wild price increases.*  Now someone looked into which pharmaceutical companies exist on raising the prices of drugs:**

 Among the companies she identified as among the worst offenders over the past five years were Horizon Pharma (HZNP), where price boosts produced 63% of sales growth above the rate of inflation, Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), where they accounted for 58% of sales gains, and Concordia International (CXRX), where they generated 51% of growth.
YET KNOWING which companies profited from jacking up prices isn’t enough to separate the winners from losers. Already, Horizon and Jazz have started shifting from business plans focused on higher prices to ones that rely on new products. Jazz, for instance, could get 36% of its revenue through 2020 from new drugs, including Defitelio, which treats blockages of blood vessels in the liver, and JZP-110, a narcolepsy treatment. Similarly, Horizon could get 45% of its growth from orphan drugs targeting rare illnesses. **
No doubt there are others.  Mylan and the generic Epi-Pin come to mind, for just one case.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/where-is-teddy-roosevelt-when-we-need.html
** http://www.barrons.com/articles/health-care-stocks-are-riskier-than-they-seem-1475300094?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns

Saturday, October 1, 2016

STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE

Here is a list of 18 stocks with the longest number of years for increasing dividends.  You would have done pretty well if you owned the list.   The symbol DR means you can DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan)  and SP indicates if there are fees for DRIPPing.  Now for the first time, some stocks (there are 5) have increased their dividends for 60 or more consecutive years.  You have to do your own due diligence because Diebold hit 60 yrs and then stopped increasing their dividend.  So there is no guarantee that a company will remain on the list. Stocks are selected from the spread sheet of dFish on Drip  Investing: http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp

Stocks Increasing Dividends For 50 Yrs Or More
Company Ticker No. CCC DRIP Fees 1/31/14 Div. 9/30/16
Name Symbol Industry Yrs Seq DR SP Price Yield Price
Diebold Inc. DBD Business Equipment 60 0 N Y 33.59 3.42 No longer included
American States Water AWR Utility-Water 61 1 N N 29.40 2.85 40.05
Dover Corp. DOV Machinery 60 2 Y N 86.56 1.73 73.54
Northwest Natural Gas NWN Utility-Gas 60 3 N N 41.56 3.11 60.11
Parker-Hannifin Corp. PH Industrial Equipment 59 6 N N 113.37 1.69 125.53
Genuine Parts Co. GPC Auto Parts 60 4 N N 82.25 2.61 100.45
Procter & Gamble Co. PG Consumer Products 60 5 N Y 76.62 3.14 89.75
Emerson Electric EMR Industrial Equipment 59 7 N N 65.94 2.61 54.51
3M Company MMM Conglomerate 58 8 N N 128.19 2.67 176.23
Vectren Corp. VVC Utility-Electric/Gas 56 9 N N 36.52 3.94 50.20
Cincinnati Financial CINF Insurance 56 10 N N 48.45 3.63 75.42
Coca-Cola Company KO Beverages-Non-alcoholic 54 11 Y Y 37.82 2.96 42.32
Johnson & Johnson JNJ Drugs/Consumer Prod. 54 12 N N 88.47 2.98 118.13
Lowe's Companies LOW Retail-Home Improv. 54 13 N Y 46.29 1.56 72.21
Lancaster Colony Corp. LANC Food/Consumer Prod. 53 14 N N 86.92 2.02 132.09
Colgate-Palmolive Co. CL Personal Products 53 15 Y Y 61.23 2.22 74.14
Nordson Corp. NDSN Machinery 53 16 N N 69.32 1.04 99.63
Farmers and Merchants FMCB Banking 51 17 ? 2.18 600
Hormel Foods Food Processing 50 18 N N ? 1.53 37.93
* Need to raise dividend to keep streak in tact

PARKINSON'S LAW

I guess you have to be about my age to know about C. Northcote Parkinson* and Parkinson's Law** which is "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion",  It is a pity people have lost awareness of this valuable statement.  It was first published in a couple of articles in the magazine, The Economist, in 1955 and came out a a small book in 1957.

My favorite phrase (that I have paraphrased before***) is  "Buildings for the League of Nations were finished in 1938 and so was the League of Nations." 

A number of corollaries have been proposed for Parkinson's Law:

The first-referenced meaning of the law has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries, the best known being the Stock–Sanford corollary to Parkinson's law:**
If you wait until the last minute, it only takes a minute to do.[5]
Other corollaries include Horstman's corollary to Parkinson's law:
Work contracts to fit in the time we give it.[6]
as well as corollaries relating to computers, such as:
Data expands to fill the space available for storage.
I too have come up with a Corollary: 

          A job expands to cover all the flat spaces available.

You can still buy copies of this book, but they are expensive, I'm sorry to say.  Even warn paperback copies cost about $18 on Amazon.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Northcote_Parkinson
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/07/league-of-nations-all-over-again.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html