Unfortunately, climate change wasn't discussed in the last Presidental debate, but carbon dioxide has passed a ew milestone.
The world has blown past the 400 parts per million carbon dioxide milestone,
and is unlikely to return below that threshold again in our lifetimes.
It’s the biggest climate news of the week and quite possibly, the year.
And it’s also a sobering reminder of what our carbon pollution problem
is doing to the world.*
Included in the article is a carbon dioxide spiral by month and year since 1959 showing how carbon dioxide has increased. The animated figure is by Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom. I won't include a copy of the figure because you have to see it expanding before your eyes. Also included is a reference to the earlier temperature spiral from 1850 to 2016 by the same author.* You get to see the global temperature rising and falling through recent times.
(Click on figure to enlarge)**
And the problem is not just with carbon dioxide, but methane also is rising (and has 30X the effect as an equivalent amount of carbon dioxide):
The study shows that even though fossil fuels development has polluted
the atmosphere with up to 60 percent more methane than scientists
previously thought, the main culprits behind the rise in global methane
levels are wetlands, landfills, rice fields and belching cows***.
There is a recommendation that we whould write letters to our heirs about the lask of greenhouse gas buildup and increasing gtemperatures wasn't taken seriously in the Unite States during our lifetimes.
* https://www.climatecentral.org/news/400-ppm-carbon-dioxide-spiral-20748
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/see-earths-temperature-spiral-toward-2c-20332
** http://www.climatecentral.org/news/noaa-april-hottest-on-record-17466?wpisrc=nl_wonk
*** https://www.climatecentral.org/news/oil-gas-cows-culprits-in-methane-spike-20772
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Thursday, October 6, 2016
GEORGE W. BUSH IN RETROSPECT
I really can't be mad at George W. Bush because he never should have been president in the first place. He was an unsuccessful business man who was repeatedly financially bailed out by someone, presumably a Saudi Prince. The fault lies with us the electorate for electing him. Wait, he wasn't elected by us, the Supreme Court chose him. His opponent actually got more votes, but was done in by "hanging chads" and aggressiveness by Gays when Ohio was not ready for equality for them.
Granted there are lots of" landmines" in the way of a president becoming great.* For example, in retrospect, Eisenhower looks pretty good. He had positive cash flow twice in his presidential terms. Only Clinton (Bill) has had more. He made some fledgling moves on racial equality. He got the interstate highway system. Perhaps most important of all is that he showed us that sometimes the proper reaction to something is no action.
But then the Eisenhower negatives. He overthrew a duly elected prime minister in Iran for wanting the same oil deal from BP (actually the forerunner of BP) as Egypt got (half the profits). Things have been downhill with Iran ever since. And then there was the Hungarian uprising where we fomented them to revolt and then abandoned them.
But George W. Bush (Bush-43) had two absolute disasters that he plunged us into. One was going to war in the Middle East, something we have been mired in ever since. The other was the Great Recession (It is not PC to use the word depression any more) because he believed that the financial industry is "self correcting" and didn't need regulation. All of a sudden banks, as a result of the lack of regulation, stopped being staid conservative institutions and became go-go organizations. It didn't help that he also got a tax cut during the war that was performed on the cuff. We are still mired in both disasters but have done much, much better on the recovering economy that should be called The Great Recovery.
Many pretend to see no difference between a recession and a depression. Recessions are usually due to large buildup of inventories and recover when inventories work their way down whereas depressions are a collapse of a financial system and are self perpetuating unless something drastic is done.
There are those who say that the Great Depression was not overcome until WW-II with its enforced savings through rationing and lack of goods and a continued low birthrate. In the Great Recession, there is no all consuming distraction such as a World War, which is a great tragedy and certainly not to be recommended. Industry has to work its way out of the Great Recession with minor help by a congress (other than a small "stimulus program") that refused to have a major infrastructure program to help things along.
In fairness to Bush, once he recognized what he had done, he did start some action to save our financial system through the TARP Program, that Obama continued. But a lot of damage had already been done. Though saving the banks has been controversial, it was a key to the Great Recovery we have witnessed by President Obama.
Bush, of course did have some positives, perhaps the most important being Medicare-D (prescription drug coverage), though he left it up to the insurance industry to find a way to pay for it. He did recognize the importance of Hispanics to our culture. "Leave No child Behind" was well intended if much hated by the teaching community.
I will also give Bush credit for going to war in Afghanistan because we had to do something after the 9/11 (2001) attacks, even if it ended badly. President Reagan on the other had "cut and run" from Lebanon after the Marine Barracks massacre and embassy bombings in Lebanon and Kuwait, emboldening the terrorists into believing that, if we were hit hard, we would just withdraw.
George W. Bush's two disasters, unfortunately, greatly outweigh everything else and make him a candidate for the worst president ever, certainly a big step worse than President Hoover.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/05/land-mines-in-way-of-becoming-great.html
Granted there are lots of" landmines" in the way of a president becoming great.* For example, in retrospect, Eisenhower looks pretty good. He had positive cash flow twice in his presidential terms. Only Clinton (Bill) has had more. He made some fledgling moves on racial equality. He got the interstate highway system. Perhaps most important of all is that he showed us that sometimes the proper reaction to something is no action.
But then the Eisenhower negatives. He overthrew a duly elected prime minister in Iran for wanting the same oil deal from BP (actually the forerunner of BP) as Egypt got (half the profits). Things have been downhill with Iran ever since. And then there was the Hungarian uprising where we fomented them to revolt and then abandoned them.
But George W. Bush (Bush-43) had two absolute disasters that he plunged us into. One was going to war in the Middle East, something we have been mired in ever since. The other was the Great Recession (It is not PC to use the word depression any more) because he believed that the financial industry is "self correcting" and didn't need regulation. All of a sudden banks, as a result of the lack of regulation, stopped being staid conservative institutions and became go-go organizations. It didn't help that he also got a tax cut during the war that was performed on the cuff. We are still mired in both disasters but have done much, much better on the recovering economy that should be called The Great Recovery.
Many pretend to see no difference between a recession and a depression. Recessions are usually due to large buildup of inventories and recover when inventories work their way down whereas depressions are a collapse of a financial system and are self perpetuating unless something drastic is done.
There are those who say that the Great Depression was not overcome until WW-II with its enforced savings through rationing and lack of goods and a continued low birthrate. In the Great Recession, there is no all consuming distraction such as a World War, which is a great tragedy and certainly not to be recommended. Industry has to work its way out of the Great Recession with minor help by a congress (other than a small "stimulus program") that refused to have a major infrastructure program to help things along.
In fairness to Bush, once he recognized what he had done, he did start some action to save our financial system through the TARP Program, that Obama continued. But a lot of damage had already been done. Though saving the banks has been controversial, it was a key to the Great Recovery we have witnessed by President Obama.
Bush, of course did have some positives, perhaps the most important being Medicare-D (prescription drug coverage), though he left it up to the insurance industry to find a way to pay for it. He did recognize the importance of Hispanics to our culture. "Leave No child Behind" was well intended if much hated by the teaching community.
I will also give Bush credit for going to war in Afghanistan because we had to do something after the 9/11 (2001) attacks, even if it ended badly. President Reagan on the other had "cut and run" from Lebanon after the Marine Barracks massacre and embassy bombings in Lebanon and Kuwait, emboldening the terrorists into believing that, if we were hit hard, we would just withdraw.
George W. Bush's two disasters, unfortunately, greatly outweigh everything else and make him a candidate for the worst president ever, certainly a big step worse than President Hoover.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/05/land-mines-in-way-of-becoming-great.html
Tuesday, October 4, 2016
REMARKABLE ECONOMY FORECAST
Another good news economic forecast has come out (As usual, I recommend reading the whole article):
At a time when markets find themselves distracted by anxiety in the financial sector, Wells Capital Management's Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen said he sees a healthy recovery coming on, thanks to positive trends among a few market indicators, he told CNBC Monday morning.
.................................................................
The strategist also said that this will be a slow but long-lasting recovery, possibly surpassing the record for the longest recovery for the United States, which stands at 10 years.
This forecast follows lots of other good news, such as CEOs forecasting a good economy for the next year* and a very good Consumer Confidence Index number (104.1), the highest since 2007.** Also there have now been 80 consecutive months with weekly jobless claims less than 300,000,*** the longest stretch since 1970 and a record for weekly jobless claims per 100,000 population. The median household income increased last year by 5.2% and was a record.**** All sections of the country benefited.
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/strategist-jim-paulsen-gear-up-for-the-longest-recovery-ever.htm
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/ceos-optimistic-about-next-year.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/consumer-confidence-in-september-is.htmll
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/jobless-claims-and-job-openings.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/how-good-do-things-have-to-get-before.html
At a time when markets find themselves distracted by anxiety in the financial sector, Wells Capital Management's Chief Investment Strategist Jim Paulsen said he sees a healthy recovery coming on, thanks to positive trends among a few market indicators, he told CNBC Monday morning.
.................................................................
The strategist also said that this will be a slow but long-lasting recovery, possibly surpassing the record for the longest recovery for the United States, which stands at 10 years.
This forecast follows lots of other good news, such as CEOs forecasting a good economy for the next year* and a very good Consumer Confidence Index number (104.1), the highest since 2007.** Also there have now been 80 consecutive months with weekly jobless claims less than 300,000,*** the longest stretch since 1970 and a record for weekly jobless claims per 100,000 population. The median household income increased last year by 5.2% and was a record.**** All sections of the country benefited.
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/03/strategist-jim-paulsen-gear-up-for-the-longest-recovery-ever.htm
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/ceos-optimistic-about-next-year.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/consumer-confidence-in-september-is.htmll
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/jobless-claims-and-job-openings.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/how-good-do-things-have-to-get-before.html
Monday, October 3, 2016
STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE - II
This table is a continuation of STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MOREhttp://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/stocks-paying-increasing-dividends-for.html Stocks are selected from the spread sheet of dFish on Drip Investing: http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.aspStocks Increasing Dividends For 50 Yrs Or More |
||||||
| Company | Ticker | 1/31/14 | Div. | 9/30/16 | ||
| Name | Symbol | Industry | Price | Yield | Price | |
| Diebold Inc. | DBD | Business Equipment | 33.59 | 3.42 | No longer included | |
| American States Water | AWR | Utility-Water | 29.40 | 2.85 | 40.05 | |
| Dover Corp. | DOV | Machinery | 86.56 | 1.73 | 73.54 | |
| Northwest Natural Gas | NWN | Utility-Gas | 41.56 | 3.11 | 60.11 | |
| Parker-Hannifin Corp. | PH | Industrial Equipment | 113.37 | 1.69 | 125.53 | |
| Genuine Parts Co. | GPC | Auto Parts | 82.25 | 2.61 | 100.45 | |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Consumer Products | 76.62 | 3.14 | 89.75 | |
| Emerson Electric | EMR | Industrial Equipment | 65.94 | 2.61 | 54.51 | |
| 3M Company | MMM | Conglomerate | 128.19 | 2.67 | 176.23 | |
| Vectren Corp. | VVC | Utility-Electric/Gas | 36.52 | 3.94 | 50.20 | |
| Cincinnati Financial | CINF | Insurance | 48.45 | 3.63 | 75.42 | |
| Coca-Cola Company | KO | Beverages-Non-alcoholic | 37.82 | 2.96 | 42.32 | |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | Drugs/Consumer Prod. | 88.47 | 2.98 | 118.13 | |
| Lowe's Companies | LOW | Retail-Home Improv. | 46.29 | 1.56 | 72.21 | |
| Lancaster Colony Corp. | LANC | Food/Consumer Prod. | 86.92 | 2.02 | 132.09 | |
| Colgate-Palmolive Co. | CL | Personal Products | 61.23 | 2.22 | 74.14 | |
| Nordson Corp. | NDSN | Machinery | 69.32 | 1.04 | 99.63 | |
| Farmers and Merchants | FMCB | Banking | ? | 2.18 | 600 | New |
| Hormel Foods HRL | Food Processing | ? | 1.53 | 37.93 | New | |
Sunday, October 2, 2016
PHARMACEUTICALS
There are pharmaceutical companies that are clearly out of control with unbelievably wild price increases.* Now someone looked into which pharmaceutical companies exist on raising the prices of drugs:**
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/where-is-teddy-roosevelt-when-we-need.html
** http://www.barrons.com/articles/health-care-stocks-are-riskier-than-they-seem-1475300094?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns
Among the companies she identified as among the worst offenders over the past five years were Horizon Pharma (HZNP), where price boosts produced 63% of sales growth above the rate of inflation, Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), where they accounted for 58% of sales gains, and Concordia International (CXRX), where they generated 51% of growth.
YET KNOWING which companies profited from jacking up prices isn’t enough to separate the winners from losers. Already, Horizon and Jazz have started shifting from business plans focused on higher prices to ones that rely on new products. Jazz, for instance, could get 36% of its revenue through 2020 from new drugs, including Defitelio, which treats blockages of blood vessels in the liver, and JZP-110, a narcolepsy treatment. Similarly, Horizon could get 45% of its growth from orphan drugs targeting rare illnesses. **
No doubt there are others. Mylan and the generic Epi-Pin come to mind, for just one case.* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/where-is-teddy-roosevelt-when-we-need.html
** http://www.barrons.com/articles/health-care-stocks-are-riskier-than-they-seem-1475300094?mod=BOL_hp_we_columns
Saturday, October 1, 2016
STOCKS PAYING INCREASING DIVIDENDS FOR 50 YRS OR MORE
Here is a list of 18 stocks with the longest number of years for increasing dividends. You would have done pretty well if you owned the list. The symbol DR means you can DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) and SP indicates if there are fees for DRIPPing. Now for the first time, some stocks (there are 5) have increased their dividends for 60 or more consecutive years. You have to do your own due diligence because Diebold hit 60 yrs and then stopped increasing their dividend. So there is no guarantee that a company will remain on the list. Stocks are selected from the spread sheet of dFish on Drip Investing: http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp
| Stocks Increasing Dividends For 50 Yrs Or More | |||||||||
| Company | Ticker | No. | CCC | DRIP Fees | 1/31/14 | Div. | 9/30/16 | ||
| Name | Symbol | Industry | Yrs | Seq | DR | SP | Price | Yield | Price |
| Diebold Inc. | DBD | Business Equipment | 60 | 0 | N | Y | 33.59 | 3.42 | No longer included |
| American States Water | AWR | Utility-Water | 61 | 1 | N | N | 29.40 | 2.85 | 40.05 |
| Dover Corp. | DOV | Machinery | 60 | 2 | Y | N | 86.56 | 1.73 | 73.54 |
| Northwest Natural Gas | NWN | Utility-Gas | 60 | 3 | N | N | 41.56 | 3.11 | 60.11 |
| Parker-Hannifin Corp. | PH | Industrial Equipment | 59 | 6 | N | N | 113.37 | 1.69 | 125.53 |
| Genuine Parts Co. | GPC | Auto Parts | 60 | 4 | N | N | 82.25 | 2.61 | 100.45 |
| Procter & Gamble Co. | PG | Consumer Products | 60 | 5 | N | Y | 76.62 | 3.14 | 89.75 |
| Emerson Electric | EMR | Industrial Equipment | 59 | 7 | N | N | 65.94 | 2.61 | 54.51 |
| 3M Company | MMM | Conglomerate | 58 | 8 | N | N | 128.19 | 2.67 | 176.23 |
| Vectren Corp. | VVC | Utility-Electric/Gas | 56 | 9 | N | N | 36.52 | 3.94 | 50.20 |
| Cincinnati Financial | CINF | Insurance | 56 | 10 | N | N | 48.45 | 3.63 | 75.42 |
| Coca-Cola Company | KO | Beverages-Non-alcoholic | 54 | 11 | Y | Y | 37.82 | 2.96 | 42.32 |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | Drugs/Consumer Prod. | 54 | 12 | N | N | 88.47 | 2.98 | 118.13 |
| Lowe's Companies | LOW | Retail-Home Improv. | 54 | 13 | N | Y | 46.29 | 1.56 | 72.21 |
| Lancaster Colony Corp. | LANC | Food/Consumer Prod. | 53 | 14 | N | N | 86.92 | 2.02 | 132.09 |
| Colgate-Palmolive Co. | CL | Personal Products | 53 | 15 | Y | Y | 61.23 | 2.22 | 74.14 |
| Nordson Corp. | NDSN | Machinery | 53 | 16 | N | N | 69.32 | 1.04 | 99.63 |
| Farmers and Merchants | FMCB | Banking | 51 | 17 | ? | 2.18 | 600 | ||
| Hormel Foods | Food Processing | 50 | 18 | N | N | ? | 1.53 | 37.93 | |
| * | Need to raise dividend to keep streak in tact | ||||||||
PARKINSON'S LAW
I guess you have to be about my age to know about C. Northcote Parkinson* and Parkinson's Law** which is "work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion", It is a pity people have lost awareness of this valuable statement. It was first published in a couple of articles in the magazine, The Economist, in 1955 and came out a a small book in 1957.
My favorite phrase (that I have paraphrased before***) is "Buildings for the League of Nations were finished in 1938 and so was the League of Nations."
A number of corollaries have been proposed for Parkinson's Law:
A job expands to cover all the flat spaces available.
You can still buy copies of this book, but they are expensive, I'm sorry to say. Even warn paperback copies cost about $18 on Amazon.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Northcote_Parkinson
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/07/league-of-nations-all-over-again.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html
My favorite phrase (that I have paraphrased before***) is "Buildings for the League of Nations were finished in 1938 and so was the League of Nations."
A number of corollaries have been proposed for Parkinson's Law:
The first-referenced meaning of the law has dominated, and sprouted several corollaries, the best known being the Stock–Sanford corollary to Parkinson's law:**
If you wait until the last minute, it only takes a minute to do.[5]
Other corollaries include Horstman's corollary to Parkinson's law:
Work contracts to fit in the time we give it.[6]
as well as corollaries relating to computers, such as:
I too have come up with a Corollary:Data expands to fill the space available for storage.
A job expands to cover all the flat spaces available.
You can still buy copies of this book, but they are expensive, I'm sorry to say. Even warn paperback copies cost about $18 on Amazon.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C._Northcote_Parkinson
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/07/league-of-nations-all-over-again.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html
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