ADP JOBS AND JOBLESS CLAIMS FOR APRIL 2016

I usually don't pay much attention to the ADP employment numbers and wait a few days for the Federal employment numbers but an interesting graph was presented on CNBC regarding ADP numbers (see below).*

Overall, the ISM nonmanufacturing reading grew to 55.7 from 54.5. The ISM manufacturing index, which was released Monday, declined a full point to 50.8, with the employment component gaining 1.1 points to 49.2, which is still in contraction.**
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Respondents to the nonmanufacturing survey were generally optimistic about business conditions, with one construction leader noting a "severe nonskilled labor shortage" that is "hurting the construction industry."**

(click on figure to enlarge)

Jobless claims moved up last week but were still well below 300.000.  Applications for jobless benefits have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 55 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, nudged up 250 to 259,750 last week.***
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The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 39,000 to 2.18 million in the week ended March 12.***

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/private-sector-payrolls-april-2016.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/05/goldman-sachs-thinks-the-street-is-wrong-about-april-jobs.html
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/24/us-weekly-jobless-claims-mar-19-2016.html

LAYOFFS UP UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS DOWN IN 2015

There is a dichotomy going on where layoffs are increasing but new jobless claims continue to decline.  The number of jobless claims are now below where they were prior to the "Great Recession."  In contrast, job layoffs are up for the 3rd quarter of 2015, but according to the figure below, they are less than before the "Great Recession."

In fact, the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, slipped 2,000 to 263,250 last week, the lowest level since December 1973. * [!]

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According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the average duration of unemployment was 26.3 weeks in September, compared with 31.8 weeks for the same period in 2014.
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The third quarter of 2015 was the worst in terms of job cuts since the third quarter of 2009, the report found. So far this year, there have been more layoffs announced than in the full year of 2014. (Note: the figure below shows that the job cuts are less than the 3rd quarter of 2011.  I do not know the reason for the conflict.)

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The odds are especially bright for skilled workers, he said. "Skilled workers are the fuel of this economy." says Christopher.

(Click to enlarge)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/layoffs-dont-necessarily-spell-trouble-challenger.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS NEAR 42 YR LOW

I must say I find the jobs picture to be confusing.  On the one hand , things don't look good (see italics below).*

It wasn't just, then, that September was bad, with its meager addition of 142,000 jobs that was way below the Street's estimate of 203,000. There were plenty of other issues.
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Instead, the [August] report got knocked down to a paltry 136,000. Ditto for July, with the robust 245,000 print coming down to 223,000. Six of the past eight reports have been revised lower in subsequent months.
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The establishment survey's diffusion index is a fairly simple sentiment measure of whether more companies are hiring or laying off. A reading above 50 denotes expansion; a reading below signifies that hiring is contracting.
The level for September was 52.9. Yes, that represents that more companies are hiring than not, but it's down from 55.5 in August, 60.1 from July and 61.4 a year ago. 

On the other hand, layoffs continue to be very low (see italics below):**

The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected to a near 42-year low last week, pointing to ongoing tightening in the labor market despite the recent slowdown in hiring.

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Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 for the week ended Oct. 3, the Labor Department said.
That was the lowest since mid-July when the number of claims was at its lowest since 1973. Hitting such a historical low is remarkable considering the U.S. workforce has grown considerably since the 1970s.
It was also the 31st straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is usually associated with a strengthening labor market.

(Click on the figure to enlarge)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/02/why-the-jobs-picture-is-even-worse-than-you-think.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/08/us-weekly-jobless-claims-oct-3-2105.html

JOBLESS CLAIMS AT A 15 YR. LOW

The latest report on weekly jobless claims came in lower than expected and the four week average is the lowest since 2000.*  Though April retail sales were a disappointment** and the number of new hires a modest disappointment, there is good news in that the unemployment record is low at 5.4% *** and relatively few people are being laid off (see Figure in the reference).  It seems to me this is a good sign for the economy.

* http://www.cnbc.com/id/102678233
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/05/retail-sales-01-042015.html
*** http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000