Somehow I get the feeling that the Ukraine situation is rather similar to that in Korea back around 1950. In Korea, MacArthur forces seemed ready to push the Communist insurgents out of Korea when tens of thousands of Chinese troops poured across the border and an extend war resulted with 128,650 Americans killed (36,516) or wounded,* eventually stopped by Eisenhower.
It looks like Ukraine forces are having considerable success against the separatists supported by some Russian forces. If it looks like the separatists are going to be forced out of Ukraine, I wouldn't be surprised if tens of thousands of Russian troops pour across the border. What do we do then?
Vladimir Putin has stopped all imports of Western agricultural products into Russia. This move, of course, will also hurt the Russian people, but Russian leaders have never spared their own people from suffering. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin does not hesitate from taking further actions that result in increased suffering of his people in the event of increased sanctions.
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Thursday, August 7, 2014
Thursday, June 19, 2014
WIRING OF THE BRAIN
Particularly since my wife died, I have been reading
quite a bit about how the brain works and how you can change it. But
even in the case of Noah who has had one side of his brain removed, who is a good example of this, in which
actions and thought usually done by the right brain are now done by the
left (or is it vice versa, no matter). In my wife's case, I
think she could have recovered from her first stroke except something happened to destroy her
will to fight her condition which makes it very hard when all the
initiative had to come from someone else. She really had to want to get
better, but couldn't manage it.
But it occurs to me that one reason we don't understand Muslims, especially conservative Muslims, is that their brains are wired differently from ours and some may even believe in martyrs getting 72"virgins" ( apparently wives actually in heaven).* Do female martyrs get 72 virginal men (husbands)?
And it is the same in the U.S. where the religious right is able to maintain all sorts of screwy ideas like raped women don't get pregnant and are obsessed with controlling women's bodies almost as much as Muslims. And conservative Republicans really believe that all poor people are lazy, the government is coming to get their guns, and reducing taxes and getting rid of regulations will always improve the economy. No showing of the facts will dissuade them as their brains are wired to believe this sort of thing. (Though personal income taxes were greatly reduced as were regulations under George W. Bush, we had economic disaster.. Both George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton raised taxes a lot and we had the best economic climate of my long lifetime.)
It is even true on a national basis. For some
reason as a nation, our brains are wired to root for the mob (presumably the underdog). We have
done this with Egypt, with Libya (even giving air cover to the mob), with the
Ukraine. We actually also did this with the Taliban against the
Russians. When we don't like the mob, we will enter into nation
building as we did with Iraq and are doing with Afghanistan. And we
have learned, or I hope we have, that the road to democracy is extremely
difficult for people who have no history of democracy or suffered under
a long-time dictatorship. I wonder how you could have a real democracy in Iraq when 80% of the people are of one religion (Shiite) and 20% of another (Sunni) who hate each other. Even in the U.S., a lot of people believe that a Muslim, say, cannot be president though there is nothing in the constitution that says that presidents must be Christians.
As I have said in a recent post to my blog, I think eventually we will look on Guantanamo Bay as a dark period in American history: http://stopcontinentaldrift.bl
But it occurs to me that one reason we don't understand Muslims, especially conservative Muslims, is that their brains are wired differently from ours and some may even believe in martyrs getting 72"virgins" ( apparently wives actually in heaven).* Do female martyrs get 72 virginal men (husbands)?
And it is the same in the U.S. where the religious right is able to maintain all sorts of screwy ideas like raped women don't get pregnant and are obsessed with controlling women's bodies almost as much as Muslims. And conservative Republicans really believe that all poor people are lazy, the government is coming to get their guns, and reducing taxes and getting rid of regulations will always improve the economy. No showing of the facts will dissuade them as their brains are wired to believe this sort of thing. (Though personal income taxes were greatly reduced as were regulations under George W. Bush, we had economic disaster.. Both George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton raised taxes a lot and we had the best economic climate of my long lifetime.)
We are also witnessing in this country a significant part
of the government that is quite willing to go against the will of the
people, even their own constituencies, on issue after issue: on
background checks for gun purchases, on the minimum wage, and on a track
to citizenship for long-term illegal immigrants, just to name a few,
As I have said in a recent post to my blog, I think eventually we will look on Guantanamo Bay as a dark period in American history: http://stopcontinentaldrift.bl
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houri
Monday, May 19, 2014
WHY WE ARE CAREFUL IN SYRIA
There are numerous examples now of the difficulty in conversion of nations that have long been under dictatorships to any sort of democracy. Certainly Egypt is a good example where they have elections and then in maybe six months have the winning party overthrown by the mob. Certainly a part of the problem is in the poor economics of these countries, including Egypt. Recall that the original mob overthrow of a dictator had American sympathies (West friendly Hosni Mubarabk), but is the country really better off?
We did even more in backing the mob to overthrow Qaddafi in Libya, after we had promised not to try to overthrow him if he gave up nuclear weapons, which he did. We did not put "boots on the ground" in Libya, so far as I know, except for "trainers," but we did give the mob air cover as well as training and other war materiel. The problems of Libya are much more than the Benghazi incident,* much loved by some American politicians.
This increased engagement has come at a continuing cost. When the US and other allies intervened in 2011 to aid in the ouster of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, for instance, it helped set off a chain reaction that led to a security vacuum destabilizing that country as well as neighboring Mali. The latter saw its elected government overthrown by a US-trained officer. The former never recovered and has tottered toward failed-state status ever since. Local militias have been carving out fiefdoms, while killing untold numbers of Libyans—as well, of course, as US Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans in a September 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, the “cradle” of the Libyan revolution, whose forces the US had aided with training, materiel and military might.**
Another case where we have supported the mob against the government is, of course, the Ukraine where there have been two revolutions within 10 yrs, ousting legitimately elected leaders. The Ukraine might have done better if they had broken into two counties like Czechoslovakia did as voting patterns in the Ukraine elections are quite clear. But as in Egypt, a large part of the problem is in the poor economics of the Ukraine.
Thus I think we have been wise in Syria not to precipitously support the revolutionary parties (note plural) against the dictatorial government. Should they overthrow Assad, then the real civil war would start between the islamists and the secularists. As the islamists have more fervor, it is supposed that they would win resulting in another Iran type government, though the Iran government may be slowly evolving into a more democratic government representative of the people.
* In response to trying to prevent more diplomatic attacks, we have finally, quietly, developed rapid response teams in the military to counter extremist and al Qaeda attacks on our diplomatic posts:
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/05/african-war-on-terror.html
** http://www.thenation.com/article/179883/how-benghazi-birthed-new-normal-africa?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=email_nation&utm_campaign=Email%20Nation%20%28NEW%29%2020140515&newsletter=email_nation_tuesday
We did even more in backing the mob to overthrow Qaddafi in Libya, after we had promised not to try to overthrow him if he gave up nuclear weapons, which he did. We did not put "boots on the ground" in Libya, so far as I know, except for "trainers," but we did give the mob air cover as well as training and other war materiel. The problems of Libya are much more than the Benghazi incident,* much loved by some American politicians.
This increased engagement has come at a continuing cost. When the US and other allies intervened in 2011 to aid in the ouster of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, for instance, it helped set off a chain reaction that led to a security vacuum destabilizing that country as well as neighboring Mali. The latter saw its elected government overthrown by a US-trained officer. The former never recovered and has tottered toward failed-state status ever since. Local militias have been carving out fiefdoms, while killing untold numbers of Libyans—as well, of course, as US Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans in a September 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, the “cradle” of the Libyan revolution, whose forces the US had aided with training, materiel and military might.**
Another case where we have supported the mob against the government is, of course, the Ukraine where there have been two revolutions within 10 yrs, ousting legitimately elected leaders. The Ukraine might have done better if they had broken into two counties like Czechoslovakia did as voting patterns in the Ukraine elections are quite clear. But as in Egypt, a large part of the problem is in the poor economics of the Ukraine.
Thus I think we have been wise in Syria not to precipitously support the revolutionary parties (note plural) against the dictatorial government. Should they overthrow Assad, then the real civil war would start between the islamists and the secularists. As the islamists have more fervor, it is supposed that they would win resulting in another Iran type government, though the Iran government may be slowly evolving into a more democratic government representative of the people.
* In response to trying to prevent more diplomatic attacks, we have finally, quietly, developed rapid response teams in the military to counter extremist and al Qaeda attacks on our diplomatic posts:
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/05/african-war-on-terror.html
** http://www.thenation.com/article/179883/how-benghazi-birthed-new-normal-africa?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=email_nation&utm_campaign=Email%20Nation%20%28NEW%29%2020140515&newsletter=email_nation_tuesday
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
NOT AGAIN (NATION BUILDING)?
This last weekend, I heard a lot of comments on the TV news programs that the solutions to the Ukraine's problems is to make them an economically sound nation. Sounds like nation building to me. So here we go again?
The Ukraine has enough natural resources (including perhaps the best farmland in the world) and industry that it should be a reasonably wealth nation.*
It seems by now that we have abundant examples that the transition from a dictatorship (Monarchy, Communism, etc.) to democracy is not easy. People who have not lived in a democracy have a lot of difficulty transitioning to it. Take the case of the Ukraine that has suffered much political turmoil.**. They had the "Orange Revolution" in 2004. The current government of a few months ago (and elected as recently as 2012) was a duly elected government, including the President Viktor Yanukovych who was ousted by the mob at Kiev. But much of the government is corrupt and stealing the country blind, which seems to be the trend.
Now there is to be a new election in May. But will the results be any better than last time? The mob represented a very small part of the Ukraine so my guess is that the results are unknown. Americans are more docile than people in much of the rest of the world and wait for elections to topple politicians, but often the replacements are worse than the incumbents. Replacing incumbents in the U.S. has resulted in political gridlock. Though the public complains about the degree of unemployment in the U.S., the voters seem inclined to vote-in those who perpetuate the current situation. It wouldn't be a surprise to me if the voters in the Ukraine will perform even worse.
So the big question remains, how do you lift an economy and employment when you have an uncooperative government? Perhaps the biggest success story of nation building by another nation is Japan (Germany had the Wiemar Republic experience to build upon.), but in that case Japan lost a war and had a long occupation to facilitate the change to a democracy. Are there any examples of nation building that have not involved an occupation, perhaps Brazil? Perhaps it is too early in the Ukiraine and the Middle East evolution to tell, but the difficulties are clearly apparent in Iraq and Afghanistan or for Egypt and Libya, etc. as well.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/03/ukraine-failed-state.html
** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verkhovna_Rada
The Ukraine has enough natural resources (including perhaps the best farmland in the world) and industry that it should be a reasonably wealth nation.*
It seems by now that we have abundant examples that the transition from a dictatorship (Monarchy, Communism, etc.) to democracy is not easy. People who have not lived in a democracy have a lot of difficulty transitioning to it. Take the case of the Ukraine that has suffered much political turmoil.**. They had the "Orange Revolution" in 2004. The current government of a few months ago (and elected as recently as 2012) was a duly elected government, including the President Viktor Yanukovych who was ousted by the mob at Kiev. But much of the government is corrupt and stealing the country blind, which seems to be the trend.
Now there is to be a new election in May. But will the results be any better than last time? The mob represented a very small part of the Ukraine so my guess is that the results are unknown. Americans are more docile than people in much of the rest of the world and wait for elections to topple politicians, but often the replacements are worse than the incumbents. Replacing incumbents in the U.S. has resulted in political gridlock. Though the public complains about the degree of unemployment in the U.S., the voters seem inclined to vote-in those who perpetuate the current situation. It wouldn't be a surprise to me if the voters in the Ukraine will perform even worse.
So the big question remains, how do you lift an economy and employment when you have an uncooperative government? Perhaps the biggest success story of nation building by another nation is Japan (Germany had the Wiemar Republic experience to build upon.), but in that case Japan lost a war and had a long occupation to facilitate the change to a democracy. Are there any examples of nation building that have not involved an occupation, perhaps Brazil? Perhaps it is too early in the Ukiraine and the Middle East evolution to tell, but the difficulties are clearly apparent in Iraq and Afghanistan or for Egypt and Libya, etc. as well.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/03/ukraine-failed-state.html
** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verkhovna_Rada
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
UKRAINE, A FAILED STATE
If the economy of Ukraine was doing well, we wouldn't be having all these problems there, but it isn't. This should be a relatively rich country with marvelous farmlands* plus iron ore, important manganese ore, coal, plus some oil, and natural gas.** Perhaps the best remaining oil is in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The Ukraine is not just a producer of raw materials., but is a major manufacturing country.*** It is a leading producer of steel, transportation equipment (locomotives, agricultural equipment, cars, trucks, freight cars, and ocean-going ships), heavy machinery, and a variety of chemicals and food plus other products.
Unfortunately, a corrupt political system, seemingly in constant turmoil, has squandered the GDP of Ukraine until today they are in need of an infusion of capital.
The word Ukraine has long been in use. I find it difficult to determine what it means. So far as I can tell, it is a large group of people who speak the Ukrainian language, as a first or second language, though most are more or less conversant in Russian also.
I'm also not sure what the title of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea means. If it is autonomous, it would seem to mean that it is a part of Ukraine as a matter of choice, but the constant political turmoil and corruption are such, that the Crimea may well choose to join Russia, which in my view is escaping the frying pan for the fire.
* http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/612921/Ukraine/30095/Soils
** http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/612921/Ukraine/30105/Resources-and-power (In addition to coal-fired power plants, Ukraine has nuclear power and, unfortunately, was the home of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident.)
*** http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/612921/Ukraine/30107/Manufacturing
Unfortunately, a corrupt political system, seemingly in constant turmoil, has squandered the GDP of Ukraine until today they are in need of an infusion of capital.
The word Ukraine has long been in use. I find it difficult to determine what it means. So far as I can tell, it is a large group of people who speak the Ukrainian language, as a first or second language, though most are more or less conversant in Russian also.
I'm also not sure what the title of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea means. If it is autonomous, it would seem to mean that it is a part of Ukraine as a matter of choice, but the constant political turmoil and corruption are such, that the Crimea may well choose to join Russia, which in my view is escaping the frying pan for the fire.
* http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/612921/Ukraine/30095/Soils
** http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/612921/Ukraine/30105/Resources-and-power (In addition to coal-fired power plants, Ukraine has nuclear power and, unfortunately, was the home of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident.)
*** http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/612921/Ukraine/30107/Manufacturing
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
THE BREADBASKET OF EUROPE IS NOW A BASKET CASE
The title of this piece, that regards Ukraine,* is not original with me, but I couldn't resist using it. But I am getting increasingly upset with certain politicians who insist on undermining our President in foreign relations. Prominent, of course, is senile John McCain who seemingly never saw a war he didn't like; however, when pressed by Charley Rose as to what should be done over the Soviet, I mean Russian, occupation of the Crimea said that the first thing he would do is to freeze the foreign assets and visas of the Russian oligarchs, something that Secretary John Kerry has mentioned as a possibility.
I'm also disappointed in Lindsey Graham, Senator of South Carolina, for his comments making fun of the President in a serious international incident, as, at times, he has shown some statesmanship. Supposedly the reason he is doing this is because of his Tea Party challenge in his reelection bid. Unfortunately, this puts his reelection ahead of his country. He seems to think that we should have bombarded the leader of Syria even after the promise of getting rid of the poisonous gases. Unfortunately, there are no good solutions in Syria as if Assad is overthrown the real civil war will begin with the likelihood that the country will become a conservative Muslim state like Iran. As awful as the situation is in Syria, perhaps the best state is a status quo.
At the age of 82, I do remember some things in the lead up to WW-II, and the Russian occupation of the Crimea to "protect" the Ukrainian citizens of Russian heritage reminds me a lot of the Nazi occupation of the Sudetenland** to protect citizens of German heritage at the very beginning of WW-II. I don't recall any news about threats to the Russian speaking peoples anywhere in Ukraine. And Putin does seem to be trying to generate an excuse for more occupation of Ukraine by having some of his soldiers shoot over the heads of some Ukrainian troops:
But not every scene was so calm. Video showed more than 100 unarmed Ukrainian troops trying Tuesday morning to return to Belbek air base north of Sevastopol, only to have Russian forces fire warning shots over their heads.***
As the situation in Ukraine is still in flux, I have little more to say at this time.
History of Ukraine:
Crimea has had a long and complex history but more recently for more than 300 yrs it was a part of Turkey, then in 1783 became a part of Russia, more or less, and then of the Soviet Union. Mysteriously, Kruschov gave the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. Speculation is that he was drunk at the time. Crimea has spent little time as an independent nation though it was called the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. It became recognized as a part of Ukraine by Russia in 1997. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Crimea).
Eastern Ukraine has been largely Russian since late in the 17th century. In 1991, 75% of ethnic Russian said they no longer identified themselves as Russian and 55% voted for Ukrainian independence. Many Russian speaking Ukrainians bemoan the fact that Russian is not an accepted official language of Ukraine. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine)
Western Ukraine likewise has a complicated history and was a part of Poland most of the time for several hundred years which ended in 1939. After WW-II, Ukraine became the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic with some independence from the Soviet Union. West Ukraine is largely west looking. Though the country is largely of the Eastern Orthodox religion, around 4 million Roman Catholics are present, mainly in western Ukraine. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Ukraine; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Ukraine)
* http://www.infoplease.com/askeds/bread-basket-europe.html
** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_occupation_of_Czechoslovakia
*** http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions/
I'm also disappointed in Lindsey Graham, Senator of South Carolina, for his comments making fun of the President in a serious international incident, as, at times, he has shown some statesmanship. Supposedly the reason he is doing this is because of his Tea Party challenge in his reelection bid. Unfortunately, this puts his reelection ahead of his country. He seems to think that we should have bombarded the leader of Syria even after the promise of getting rid of the poisonous gases. Unfortunately, there are no good solutions in Syria as if Assad is overthrown the real civil war will begin with the likelihood that the country will become a conservative Muslim state like Iran. As awful as the situation is in Syria, perhaps the best state is a status quo.
At the age of 82, I do remember some things in the lead up to WW-II, and the Russian occupation of the Crimea to "protect" the Ukrainian citizens of Russian heritage reminds me a lot of the Nazi occupation of the Sudetenland** to protect citizens of German heritage at the very beginning of WW-II. I don't recall any news about threats to the Russian speaking peoples anywhere in Ukraine. And Putin does seem to be trying to generate an excuse for more occupation of Ukraine by having some of his soldiers shoot over the heads of some Ukrainian troops:
But not every scene was so calm. Video showed more than 100 unarmed Ukrainian troops trying Tuesday morning to return to Belbek air base north of Sevastopol, only to have Russian forces fire warning shots over their heads.***
As the situation in Ukraine is still in flux, I have little more to say at this time.
History of Ukraine:
Crimea has had a long and complex history but more recently for more than 300 yrs it was a part of Turkey, then in 1783 became a part of Russia, more or less, and then of the Soviet Union. Mysteriously, Kruschov gave the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. Speculation is that he was drunk at the time. Crimea has spent little time as an independent nation though it was called the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. It became recognized as a part of Ukraine by Russia in 1997. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Crimea).
Eastern Ukraine has been largely Russian since late in the 17th century. In 1991, 75% of ethnic Russian said they no longer identified themselves as Russian and 55% voted for Ukrainian independence. Many Russian speaking Ukrainians bemoan the fact that Russian is not an accepted official language of Ukraine. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russians_in_Ukraine)
Western Ukraine likewise has a complicated history and was a part of Poland most of the time for several hundred years which ended in 1939. After WW-II, Ukraine became the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic with some independence from the Soviet Union. West Ukraine is largely west looking. Though the country is largely of the Eastern Orthodox religion, around 4 million Roman Catholics are present, mainly in western Ukraine. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Ukraine; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Ukraine)
* http://www.infoplease.com/askeds/bread-basket-europe.html
** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_occupation_of_Czechoslovakia
*** http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/04/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions/
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