WHY WE ARE CAREFUL IN SYRIA

There are numerous examples now of the difficulty in conversion of nations that have long been under dictatorships to any sort of democracy.  Certainly Egypt is a good example where they have elections and then in maybe six months have the winning party overthrown by the mob.  Certainly a part of the problem is in the poor economics of these countries, including Egypt.  Recall that the original mob overthrow of a dictator had American sympathies (West friendly Hosni Mubarabk), but is the country really better off?

We did even more in backing the mob to overthrow Qaddafi in Libya, after we had promised not to try to overthrow him if he gave up nuclear weapons, which he did.  We did not put "boots on the ground" in Libya, so far as I know, except for "trainers," but we did give the mob air cover as well as training and other war materiel.  The problems of Libya are much more than the Benghazi incident,* much loved by some American politicians.

This increased engagement has come at a continuing cost. When the US and other allies intervened in 2011 to aid in the ouster of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, for instance, it helped set off a chain reaction that led to a security vacuum destabilizing that country as well as neighboring Mali. The latter saw its elected government overthrown by a US-trained officer. The former never recovered and has tottered toward failed-state status ever since. Local militias have been carving out fiefdoms, while killing untold numbers of Libyans—as well, of course, as US Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other Americans in a September 2012 attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, the “cradle” of the Libyan revolution, whose forces the US had aided with training, materiel and military might.**

Another case where we have supported the mob against the government is, of course, the Ukraine where there have been two revolutions within 10 yrs, ousting legitimately elected leaders.  The Ukraine might have done better if they had broken into two counties like Czechoslovakia did as voting patterns in the Ukraine elections are quite clear.  But as in Egypt, a large part of the problem is in the poor economics of the Ukraine.

Thus I think we have been wise in Syria not to precipitously support the revolutionary parties (note plural) against the dictatorial government.   Should they overthrow Assad, then the real civil war would start between the islamists and the secularists.  As the islamists have more fervor, it is supposed that they would win resulting in another Iran type government, though the Iran government may be slowly evolving into a more democratic government representative of the people.

* In response to trying to prevent more diplomatic attacks, we have finally, quietly, developed rapid response teams in the military to counter extremist and al Qaeda attacks on our diplomatic posts:
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/05/african-war-on-terror.html
** http://www.thenation.com/article/179883/how-benghazi-birthed-new-normal-africa?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=email_nation&utm_campaign=Email%20Nation%20%28NEW%29%2020140515&newsletter=email_nation_tuesday