U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES STRONG - JUNE 2017

We may be seeing a trend where the first quarter of a year is the poorest of the year, but the revised estimate of the GDP in 2017 may be better than could be forecast, based on the results form the previous two year:*

Gross domestic product increased at a 1.2 percent annual rate instead of the 0.7 percent pace reported last month, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Friday.

Though the figure below is out of date for 2017, you can see that the GDP for the first quarter of 2017 is quite a bit stronger than for either 2016 or 2015.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Some reason for optimism is that the Chicago Business Barometer is the best in three years:

The Chicago Purchasing Management Index, also known as the Chicago Business Barometer, climbed to 65.7, its highest since May 2014, from 59.4 in May. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a figure of 58.0 for June.**

All of this plus other indicators (such as CEO optimism) are that the U.S. economy may be heating up.***

 * http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/us-q1-2017-second-reading-gdp.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/30/chicago-pmi-june-2017.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/ceos-optimistic-about-next-year.html
 http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/economy-better-than-gdp-suggests.html

BIPARTISAN HEALTHCARE BILL

When  Social Security got in trouble back in 1981, a bipartisan commission was formed  (National Commission on Social Security Reform, informally known as the Greenspan Commission) that managed to come up with a plan that included increased in payments into Social Security.  A bill was passed in 1983.  Though there were lots of statements regarding overturning the law, it stuck.*

Then in 1986, President Reagan got a reconciliation bill passed that included a provision that Emergency Rooms must take all comers regardless of ability to pay.  There we no provision for the Federal government to cover the costs of this.  It was left up to hospitals to find a way.  The law has doe not seem to be opposed today.**

President Bush (Bush-43) narrowly got Medicare D passed (1986) in a bipartisan vote that provided some relief on prescription drug purchases.  This law still stands today unopposed  Though I believe the famous "doughnut hole" where prescription costs were not covered began to be eliminated. (see ACA below)***  Again there was no provision for the government to pay for this benefit.

Democrats passed a bill in 2010 called the ACA (Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act also known as Obamacare.).****  It was tailored to appeal to conservatives though no Republicans voted for it in the end.  This law has been strongly opposed by Republicans ever since.    There was an attempt to pay for this this bill, but I believe that Republicans objected to every attempt to do so: from the individual mandate, the business mandate, the tax on stock trading by the wealthy, the tax on artificial limbs. The Republicans have said they were going to Repeal and Replace this law ever since.

Currently, Republicans are attempting to develop a replacement for the ACA without hearings or amendments (both of which were numerous on the ACA) and without Democratic  votes.  In view of the above it seems as if you want a permanent law, then it  had been better be bipartisan, but as of this date, the Senate leadership is refusing such an attempt.  People are probably going to object to any bill that is passed (because it won't be free and will entail some restrictions) on health care so a bipartisan bill helps spread the blame.  The bipartisan nature helped the Social Security reform as everyone took the blame.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenspan_Commission
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_and_Active_Labor_Act
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_Part_D
**** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act

E-SHOPPING: GROCERIES, ETC.

So the whole “brick and mortar” shopping experience is to be undone by e-commerce?  The stock price of companies owning such stores are being devestated right now.

Grocery store shopping experience is to be undone by ordering your groceries over the internet.  Curiously, 70 yrs ago I worked for a grocery company whose prime business was delivering groceries.  Yes, you could come to the store and pick out what you wanted, but most of the business involved people calling in and getting their groceries delivered.

Let me tell you something, that way you got the worst produce, the beat up cans, and fattest, oldest meat, if that is what there was.  The good stuff was saved for the walk-in customers.

I know because one summer I was a grocery delivery boy It was the toughest job physically that I ever had.  It was tough because most people that ordered groceries lived on the second or third floor walk-up apartments.  And they would wait until they had a full box or two to be delivered.  So there were lots of canned goods and milk, and a box was H-E-A-V-Y.  Also back in the store I had to haul sacks of potatoes and bags of sugar and flour bags, maybe up to 70 pounds each so I had to do them one at a time.  But here in, I want to impress you that when you order groceries on the internet, you get what someone else picks out for you.

Personally, I am unimpressed even with ordering clothes on the internet.  If you don’t like what you get, then you may be holding the bag or return it.  I find returning things to be a great trial.  I wanted a white short-sleeved shirt and finally got one that fit on the third try.  In the meantime I had to wait to get a shirt to try on and then return it.  As I recall, I also had to pay to return the item.  I’m surprised so many people are happy to live that way, say order three dresses and maybe keep one and return the others.

I’ve had good luck with shoes, but I pretty much know my size and haven’t had to return a pair yet.  But I wanted a small date book for 2017 that I could put in my breast pocket.  I used to be able to buy small date books in the store say something like 2.5 in. By 4 in.  Ordering it the first time I got one the size I wanted , but it was for 2016, not 2017!  Are their really people that order year-old date books?  The second attempt resulted in my getting two (2) little notebooks.  On the third try I got a 2017 date book that is 2.5 in. by nearly 6 in.  Exhausted, I decided to go with it.

I’m not surprised that Amazon wants to get into the “brick and mortar” stores.  There many be fewer stores but, folks, they ain’t goin’ away any more than TV destroyed movie theaters.

SEPARATION OF CHURCH AND STATE - RIP

It looks as if the long held tenet of the U.S. to have separation of church and state is over.  The separation has been in decline for a long time.  For example, states were permitted by the supreme court to finance religious school buses and many other weakenings of the separation.*

The most important step was the Hobby Lobby case, a closely held company, where the Supreme Court ruled that the owners of a company could pick and choose which parts of a law they will  not obey based on religious beliefs for their company.  The case in point was a part of the Affordable Care Act where women would be covered for contraceptives in the health plans.  So far as I am concerned, this makes, say, Hobby Lobby a for-profit religious organization.**  Please note that Judge Neil Gorsuch ruled for Hobby Lobby when he was a judge on a lower court prior to his becoming a Supreme Court Justice.

A second case involves church playgrounds.

The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 Monday that Missouri cannot exclude a church preschool from a state program providing grants for playground resurfacing, finding the denial

constitutes religious discrimination.

Trinity Church of Columbia operates a licensed preschool on its premises and in 2012 applied for a grant with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources to help pay for recycled tires to resurface the preschool’s playground.

Even though Trinity’s application ranked fifth out of 42 applications received by the DNR, it was denied based on Article 1, Section 7 of the Missouri Constitution, which states “no money shall ever be taken from the public treasury, directly or indirectly, in aid of any church, section or denomination of religion.”

The DNR eventually granted 14 of the 42 applications it received.***

Let me see if I have this right, a church can get public funding to resurface their playground.  This means you and I will have to pay for the resurfacing of a church playground.  I at least hope that this playground is open to the public.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote a scathing dissent slamming the majority’s opinion, and was joined by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

“To hear the Court tell it, this is a simple case about recycling tires to resurface a playground,” she wrote. “The stakes are higher. This case is about nothing less than the relation­ship between religious institutions and the civil government—that is, between church and state. The Court today profoundly changes that relationship by holding, for the first time, that the Constitution requires the government to provide public funds directly to a church. Its decision slights both our precedents and our history, and its rea­soning weakens this country’s longstanding commitment to a separation of church and state beneficial to both.”***

The new law passed by the Supreme Court does seem to have some merit.  For example Medicare and Medicaid do fund people in religious hospitals.  Can religious hospitals only treat members of their religion?  I believe the Seventh Day Adventists do allow all patients in and do not insist that those not in the faith be vegetarian in the hospital (though pork may be prohibited?).   But it seems like the separation of church and state is rapidly being eased.

A case to be held in October by the Supreme Court regards a Gay couple wanting a wedding cake for their upcoming marriage.  The owner did not want to serve them because he was opposed to Gay marriage.  We will see what happens in the fall, but, by extension of the Hobby Lobby case, I presume the bakery owner will be upheld if the bakery is a closely held business in view of Hobby Lobby.  At the time of publishing the reference, the Supreme Court had refused to take up the case 16 times, but now it will.****

* http://www.pewforum.org/2009/05/14/shifting-boundaries5/
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burwell_v._Hobby_Lobby_Stores,_Inc.
*** https://www.courthousenews.com/justices-side-missouri-church-state-funding-case/\**** http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/05/31/religious-freedom-or-bigotry-supreme-court-mulls-high-stakes-gay-wedding-cake-case.html

WHAT IS THE MEANING OF LIFE?

I recently saw a rerun of a TV program on the Meaning of Life by famous physicist Stephen Hawking (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJlNIWylQQ4.).

I have thought about this question a great deal and have decided that the meaning of human life is that we are a gigantic experiment by Nature to see if an animal capable of rational thought can survive, and I believe the jury is still out.

I say it is a gigantic experiment not because human being are so abundant, though considering our physical size, we are, but because of our ability to drive other animals and plants to extinction by various means, even live in hostile environments with the invention of clothes and discovery of fire, and have an effect on the surface temperature of the Earth.  We invented agriculture to have the ability to maintain so many billions of people living on Earth.  We have invented destructive items that threaten our very existence, such as the atom bomb, which is why the jury is still out.

While our ancestors have been around for about six million years, the modern form of humans only evolved about 200,000 years ago. Civilization as we know it is only about 6,000 years old, and industrialization started in the earnest only in the 1800s. While we’ve accomplished much in that short time, it also shows our responsibility as caretakers for the only planet we live on right now.*

While humans being have been around for 6 million years, sounds like a long time, there are many animals that have lived far longer: Sturgeons have been around nearly 200 m.y. (million years) (but we may drive them to extinction), Lampreys and Coelacanths have been around about 360 m.y., the Horseshoe Crab has survived for 445 m.y., Jellyfish 505 m.y., and the record goes to the Sponge that has been around for 769 m.y.  Yes, human beings have a long way to go to compete with animals with the longest histories.**

Also see: Global Housekeeping: The Challenge Is Issued (1990) and Is The Atmosphere An Infinite Sewer?***

* https://www.universetoday.com/38125/how-long-have-humans-been-on-earth/
** https://mom.me/pets/17976-12-oldest-animal-species-earth/
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/01/global-housekeeping-challenge-is-issued.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/02/is-atmosphere-infinite-sewer.html

PROBLEMS WITH NEW VEHICLES - 2017

A list has been prepared of the number of problems owners have expressed per 100 vehicles by J.D. Power and Asso..  Given below are the top 10 best and the 10 worst:*

BEST (10)

Kia (72)
Genesis (77)
Porsche (78)
Ford (86)
Ram (86)
BMW (88)
Chevrolet (88)
Hyundai (88)
Lincoln (92)
Nissan (93)

WORST (10)

Infiniti (107)
Jeep (107)
Subaru (113)
Audi (115)
Mazda (125)
Land Rover (131)
Mitsubishi (131)
Volvo (134)
Jaguar (148)
Fiat (163)

Isn't it a surprise that Kia is #1?  But even so that is 72 complaints/100 vehicles that seems high.  Famous BMW is in the top 10 all right but well behind Kia. And look who is in the bottom 10, expensive cars like Audi and Volvo ( and Lexus is 98; Acura is 103).  In my opinion, Jaguar has always been a lot of trouble so I'm not surprised it is 2nd to last (I'm surprised it isn't last.).  A neighbor had one decades ago, and I think hardly a week went by that it wasn't in the shop.  Ditto for someone I knew at work.  Why people keep buying this car is a mystery.  Note there are 148 complaints per 100 cars or nearly 1.5 complaints per car.  I guess owners really like the styling.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/21/new-vehicle-reliability-hits-high-but-driver-assist-features-struggle.html

LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR

We all know there is a longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere (It coincides with the shortest day of the year in the Southern Hemisphere). Technically speaking, the summer solstice occurs when the sun is directly overhead the Tropic of Cancer, or 23.5° north latitude. In 2017, this will occur at exactly 12:24 am (Eastern) on the 21st [of June]. (But we’ll celebrate on the 20th anyway.)*

If you pass a plane through the Earth and the Sun, called the ecliptic, the poles of the Earth should be a right angles to the plane; however, the Earth is tilted by 23.5 degrees for some reason (perhaps hit by a Mars-sized body billions of years ago),  So between March and September, Earth’s Northern Hemisphere gets more exposure to direct sunlight over the course of a day. The rest of the year, the Southern Hemisphere gets more. It’s the reason for the seasons.*

In the Northern Hemisphere, "peak" sunlight usually occurs on June 20, 21, or 22 of any given year. That’s the summer solstice. By contrast, the Southern Hemisphere reaches peak sunlight on December 21, 22, or 23 and the north hits peak darkness — that’s our winter solstice.*

Today we experienced nearly 15 hours of sunlight, a fraction of a second longer than the day before or the day after.  I hope you spent the extra time wisely.

The further north you are, the more sunlight you’ll see during the solstice. Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider created this terrific guide:*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

In case you noticed, the earliest sunrise actually came about a week ago and latest sunset will come about a week after June 20th.  This is due to solar time that I will not go into.  We will lose on average roughly two minutes a day of sunlight as the days progress.

*https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/6/19/15832952/summer-solstice-2017

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP

I am endeavoring not to talk about President Donald Trump, and I intend this to be my last post on Donald Trump until something significant happens.  I have already said most of what I feel there is to say so just search for Trump, and it is time to just watch developments and hope not too much damage is done to the U.S.  I accept that Trump is the Big Exception.

Donald Trump is a big exception in that he will not reveal his tax returns.  Perhaps eventually he will have to do so, but I doubt his supporters care.

I accept that Trump is an exception through monetizing his presidency while being president, so far as I know, the first president to do so.  He is in clear violation of his lease on the Trump Tower in Washington, d.C.  And the profits from Mar-a-Lago , Trump's "winter White House," jumped 25%:
While Mar-a-Lago, the Palm Beach, Fla. country club he's dubbed the "Winter White House," saw a nearly $8 million increase in revenue — a 25 percent increase from last year — other golf courses had unchanged revenues. Mar-a-Largo has also doubled the amount a person must pay to be a member over the past year.*

Not suprisingly people want to visit the places Trump stays and for some hopefully get some influence.

I accept that Trump has colluded with Russia.  So far as I know, he is the first president who has done so, even during the election period.  After all he asked out loud for the Russians to find the missing 30 thousand e-mails of Hillary Clinton.**  I can't tell you how shocked I was when he said such an un-American thing.  He also has said he loves Wikileaks.**  But I doubt it will ever be established further than we all ready know.  Time will tell.  I'm not even sure whether colluding with a foreign government in an election is illegal.  Perhaps getting a foreign government involved in our elections is another step down in the decline of American politics.

I have to accept that Donald Trump constitutionally cannot tell the truth.  Everyone really knows this.  Yes, politicians lie, but, again, Trump takes it to a new level.  To some extent he is fawning to his supporters by telling lies that his base believes is "Telling it like it is."

True, Donald Trump has narcissistic personality disorder.  Politicians, however, tend to be narcissistic, but Trump takes it to a new level.  I felt so sorry for his cabinet members who had to say how much they love Trump on TV.***  How humiliating.

Republicans have enough ammunition to impeach Trump;however, I doubt anything will be done so long as Trump's favorability rating is so high among Republicans, and, after all, so far Trump has been willing to sign any bill sent to him.  His favorability ratingt has generally been astounding, above 80% among Republicans, but a recent poll came in at 75% so maybe it is falling.  I don't know how low his ratings will have to be  before any action is taken.

So long as Trump slows down important legislation like health care and tax reform,**** I don't care if he continues.  While I oppose personal income tax cuts, I have long been for corporate tax cuts, though not as steep as to 15%, though down to 22% from 35% might be all right.

I'm all for giving Donald Trump the Wall, or at least part of it, something he could sand beside and have his picture taken with a sign that says "The Great Wall Of Trump."  For a half billion dollars you could build the wall farther than the eye can see.  There could be promises to "finish" the wall, which, of course, would never happen.  It could be a nice going away present and many of his followers seem to want the wall above everything else.

* http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/338208-trumps-financial-disclosure-released
** https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-clinton-emails.html?_r=0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUtT0b0EnSw
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/apr/21/jackie-speier/did-trump-really-mention-wikileaks-over-160-times-/
*** http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4596152/Trump-meets-Cabinet-time.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/tax-cuts-and-economic-stimulation.html

REP. SCALISE AND GAY MARRIAGE

Perhaps not surprisingly, seriously injured Rep. Scalise has been against Gay marriage.  It turns out, however, that one the injured police officers on his detail is a married Lesbian (Yes, married to another woman.).  Apparently though Scalise is against Gay marriage, he doesn't take it personally, something to his credit, I guess.

http://www.snopes.com/crystal-griner-steve-scalise/

REP. SCALISE SHOT. NOW WHAT?

I assume we have all heard of the shooting spree in which the House Whip,  Republican Rep. Steve Scalise was shot in the hip and is in serious condition.  Yes, others were injured also.  The shooter seems to be a deranged follower of Bernie Sanders who has expressed his horror of the event  This shooting overshadows the murder of three white men in Fresno California at the same time, so maybe we are getting used to terrorism to a certain degree?*

After the shooting we have had a lot of politicians saying that we need to "tone down the political rhetoric."  There was Kumbaya the next day at the annual congressional baseball game, won by Democrats, who had the trophy put in Scalise's office as a show on unity.

Will this attitude stick?  Remember I am a lifelong pessimist and I fear I think it won't.  I'm not sure what can turn things around.  I remember Reagan being shot and his press secretary James Brady being turned into a vegetative state.  There too was a coming together for a short while.  I was sure that some meaningful gun control would result by Republicans from the injuries to their own (Republicans).  Yet, through an incredible effort, a temporary Brady Bill was passed requiring background checks for purchase of firearms, but it was rescinded by the Supreme court that ruled that requiring local law enforcement officials to pursue background checks is unconstitutional.  Most local police officers, however, voluntarily pursue background checks.**  In addition, gun shows and mail order were always exempt in the Brady Bill.

How did all this intemperate language in politics start.  I now believe it goes back to Newt Gingrich, in the early 1980s as suggested by conservative David Brooks and forward who even published a list of combative words to use (Included in the references are several articles in addition to lists of words to use.).***   Just a few words from Gingrich's list are betray, corrupt, and hypocrisy.

No matter who started it all, this is where we are today.  President Donald Trump used much violent language during the recent presidential campaign:  An example is:
There may be somebody with tomatoes in the audience. So if you see somebody getting ready to throw a tomato, knock the crap out of them, would you? Seriously. Okay? Just knock the hell—  I promise you, I will pay for the legal fees. I promise, I promise. It won’t be so much ’cause the courts agree with us too.  http://www.mediaite.com/online/trump-supporters-clash-with-blacklivesmatter-protester-at-campaign-rally-2/
Of course, Trump loves to use belittling nicknames for people like "Crooked" Hillary" or "Little" Marko or insulting Ted Cruz's wife's appearance, among many others.

Though I am sure there are some liberals using pugnacious language, they are not common.  In fact I don't personally know one such person, though I have heard occasional liberals use the words, "Worse than the Nazis" against people saying temperate things about asbestos and other dangerous things.  I agree that is pretty bad.  Now even conservatives use the phrase, e.g. Sean Spicer saying even Hitler didn't use chemical weapons in contrast to Bashar Assad..

So we will see what happens.  Some day, some year a turnaround may happen.  It has happened before, e.g. Sen. Charles Sumner was beaten on the Senate floor to near death by Sen. Preston Brooks using a cane in 1856.****  Of course the Civil War came later as the polarisation in American politics increased.

* http://www.latimes.com/newsletters/la-me-ln-essential-california-20170419-story.html
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Handgun_Violence_Prevention_Act
*** http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article4443.htm
 http://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/gingrich-language-set-new-course/O5bgK6lY2wQ3KwEZsYTBlO/
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/04/newt-gingrich-greatest-rhetorical-hits/2/
https://www.quora.com/Which-U-S-political-party-is-more-pugnacious-during-elections-Democrat-or-Republican
**** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caning_of_Charles_Sumner

BEST SAYINGS OF EVERETT ESTES FORD (Biography)

I always say:

“Untested virtue is no virtue at all.”

"I got further in life than I ever dreamed as a youth but not as far as I deserved."

"She should marry a rich man and be miserable in comfort."
Politically correct version: They should marry wealth and be miserable in comfort

“Could anyone possibly be annoyed
About the study of an asteroid?”*

“Politicians are skilled at the art of getting the votes of people they plan to fleece.”**

"But Unc, I'm not worried about assassination. What I'm interested in is assignation."***

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/so-how-about-asteroid-poem.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/trump-or-cruz.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/08/gift-too-much-is-too-much-of-gift.html

JOB RECOVERY CONTINUES - MAY 2017

CNBC gives a report on the bureau of Labor Statics showing the jobs picture continues to improve.  CNBC prefers the U-6 values (unemployed, underemployed and discouraged), but it is seen that even that broad value continues to decline and is now about what it was before the Great Recession.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

The CNBC report also shows that the monthly increase in employment continues.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

The recovery from the Great Recession continues and currently is the third longest ever.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/the-government-says-unemployment-fell-to-4-point-3-percent-in-may-but-heres-a-more-realistic-rate.html

MCMASTER/COHN OP ED ARTICLE

A recent op ed article by McMaster and Cohn in the WSJ on June 2nd says:*

The president embarked on his first foreign trip with a clear-eyed outlook that the world is not a “global community” but an arena where nations, nongovernmental actors, and businesses engage and compete for advantage. We bring to this forum unmatched military, political, economic, cultural, and moral strength. Rather than deny this elemental nature of international affairs, we embrace it.*
......................................................................
At every stop in our journey, we delivered a clear message to our friends and partners: Where our interests align, we are open to working together to solve problems and explore opportunities. We let adversaries know that we will not only take their measure, deter conflict through strength, and defend our interests and values, but also look for areas of common interest that allow us to work together. In short, those societies that share our interests will find no friend more steadfast than the United States. Those that choose to challenge our interests will encounter the firmest resolve.*


To this, The Atlantic Magazine replies:
Like Trump himself, this general and this financier who speak for him know only the language of command, not of respect. They summon partners to join them "to enhance American security, promote American prosperity, and extend American influence around the world”—and never anticipate or answer the question, “Why should we British, French, Germans, Canadians, Australians, and on and on through the catalogue of your disrespected allies join that project?”**

My conclusion is:
Apparently there are to be no more Marshall Plans, or nation rehabilitation of former enemies like Japan and Germany.  I thought we had learned a lesson when Germany was under the "heal" of other countries after WW-I.  It wasn't 20 before WW-II started by the same country - Germany. No more American leadership.  It's a "dog eat dog" world.

I am disappointed in Gen. McMaster, I confess that I expected better from him, but I guess he feels he must defend Trump.  I'm also disappointed in Gen, Kelly, secretary of Homeland Security, who is deporting illegal mothers of small American children when there are so many others to deport (something like 11 million).  In fact there are several Republicans who stated that we won''t break up families.  I guess I put too much faith in these generals being responsible, but I should have remembered that many military officers are rabid conservatives.  I didn't know that Kelly was one of them.  McMaster was billed as an intellectual.  I certainly expected better of them.

Former Republican Presidential candidate Even McMullin tweeted: In their op-ed today, McMaster/Cohn reveal their adoption of Putin's foreign affairs ethos.

David From tweeted: Today's Cohn/McMaster oped about Trump trip: an explanation even worse than the policy

On the other hand, WSJ's approach seems to be "let'er rip, boys.***

* https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-first-doesnt-mean-america-alone-1496187426
** https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/mcmaster-cohn-trump/528609

JOB OPENINGS UP, JOBS FILLED DOWN

Job openings are at record high, but there is a falling number of applicants (following quotes are in italics):*

If the labor market has gotten a little sluggish as of late, it's certainly not because there aren't enough jobs out there.

In fact, job openings in April swelled to a record high, with the government's count showing 6 million positions waiting to be filled. That represented an addition of 259,000, or a 4.5 percent gain, from March, according to the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Those numbers came during a month that saw nonfarm payrolls grow by 174,000, part of a recent trend that has seen gains slow down after a quick start to the year.

The problems then are: (1) the jobs are not where the people are, and (2) workers don't have the right skills.

.........................................................................

The closely watched quits rate also declined for the month, falling 111,000 to about 3 million. The number is considered an indicator of worker confidence that better jobs are available elsewhere.

..........................................................................

Much of the fall in the jobless rate has come due to a relatively low labor force participation level.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the participation rate has been declining for men, though that also represents an underutilized part of the labor force that could be poised for growth. The rate for men aged 25 to 54 was at 88.4 percent in May, down from as high as 96 percent back in 1970.

But the major part of the job openings are in the accommodation and food service industries.  These jobs don't pay enough for people to move to take them.  The skills level is harder to fill, but there may be some with the right skills that can't move or won't move to take the jobs.  there are indications that the work force is less mobile than it used to be.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/06/there-are-more-job-openings-than-ever-right-now.html

LEAVING THE PARIS AGREEMENT

For those who maybe don't know, the Paris agreement concerns nearly 200 countries signing on to try to lower the increase in temperature to 2 degrees Celcius.*  This is a great pity as the agreement is voluntary so if you don't like it or feel you cannot attain the goals, you can just change your goals.  Actually I think President Trump's opposition to the agreement has nothing to do with global warming but everything to do with the agreement being lead by President Obama coupled with having a foreign name for it (Paris).  I'm not alone in such a conclusion, conservative David Brooks said much the same thing.

In fact it is not hard to find non-elected conservatives that grant global warming and bemoan leaving the agreement.  One example is the conservative David Brooks.  Small government loving "Morning  Joe" Scarborough is another one.

For some reason, we Americans, or at least the group that counts, do not like global agreements.  America's not ratifying the League of Nations certainly didn't help it, and many Republicans would abandon the United Nations if they could.  So to have Republicans oppose a global climate agreement is no surprise.  If Trump didn't withdraw, someone like Mike Pence would have or any other Republican likely to become president.

A peculiar thing is that the U.S. is almost half way to its goal of reducing carbon emissions to 25-26% of 2005 values.**

(Click on figure to enlarge)

There is also a Wall Street Journal article saying that the drop in carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. will continue to drop, in spite of President Trump's efforts to revive polluting industries like the coal industry.  Many states have emissions controls in effect, including Texas (see figure).**

(Click on figure to enlarge. Note the vertical axis and horizontal axis are latitude and longitude)

There was a Wall Street Journal editorial that seemed to say that we Americans should just try to have an economy vibrant enough so American's could adjust to whatever happens and to heck with carbon dioxide emissions:**

The best form of climate-change insurance is a large and growing economy so that future generations can afford to adapt to whatever they may confront.***

A more prosperous society a century or more from now is a more important goal than asking the world to accept a lower standard of living today in exchange for symbolic benefits.
.....................................................................................

Energy intensity—the amount of energy necessary to create a dollar of GDP—has plunged 58% in the U.S. since 1990, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Over the same period, intensity declined merely 37% in OECD Europe, 20% in Japan, 22% in Mexico and 7% in Korea. China dropped by 133%, but working off a far more wasteful initial base. Superior efficiency helps explain why U.S. carbon emissions fell by 145 million tons in 2016 compared to 2015, more than any other country. Russia was second, at minus 64 million tons. Over the past five years U.S. emissions have fallen by 270 million tons, while China—the No. 1 CO 2 emitter—added 1.1 billion tons.*** 


Well, ahem, this improvement in energy intensity has happened with a lot of government stimulation, such as on both wind power and solar energy  Oh, well, you will see.  I'll be long gone.   Infact all the important technological advances have been stimulated by government action, such as, GPS and the internet.  Companies are good at step by step improvement in technology, not developing new technology.  The hybrid automobile that came from Japan, may be an exception but the sale of them carried a tax advantage for the buyer.

In the meantime, China continues to lower its carbon dioxide output.
China said its CO2 emissions in 2017 will drop 1 percent from 2016, making it the fourth consecutive year of either zero growth or a decline in the country's emissions.****

* http://www.mymcmurray.com/2017/06/06/california-china-sign-climate-deal-after-trumps-paris-exit/
** http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/01/us-carbon-emission-controls-are-taking-hold-no-matter-what-trump-does.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/despite-trump-move-utilities-shift-from-coal-is-set-to-continue-1490693406
*** https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-bids-paris-adieu-1496358860
**** https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28022017/chinas-co2-reduction-clean-energy-trump-us

DECLINE OF AMERICAN POLITICS

START OF THE DECLINE IN AMERICAN POLITICS
I'm not sure when the modern decline in American politics started.  Maybe it started with the Democrats overturning Robert Bork's nomination to the Supreme Court in 1987* that seems to have inflamed Republicans ever since.  As a Civil Libertarian, I agreed with the Democrats, but Bork said that all the accusations against him were wrong.  I don't know, but the Democrats seemed to be right.  At any rate, perhaps that is when the decline started, but it could be when Republicans developed their southern Strategy with Richard Nixon and Barry Goldwater.**

Note added June 18, 2017: A better start is with Newt Gingrich suggested by conservative David Brooks: How did all this intemperate language in politics start.  I now believe it goes back to Newt Gingrich, in the early 1980s as suggested by conservative David Brooks and forward who even published a list of combative words to use (Included in the references are several articles in addition to lists of words to use.).***   Just a few words from Gingrich's list are betray, corrupt, and hypocrisy.
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/rep-scalise-shot-now-what.html

THE NEXT BIG STEP: BENGHAZI
Another BIG step in decline occurred when Mitt Romney decided to politicize Benghazi and spawned 13 investigations!  I can't forgive him for this.  Prior to this, political disagreements ended at the shores of America.  When Ronald Reagan endured two major embassy bombings (including one ambassador being killed as in Benghazi) plus the Marine Barracks disaster in  Lebanon where 241 were killed  Democrats kept mum and never tried to make political hay out of it though there was one investigation.  The Beirut embassy bombing under Reagan killed 17 people * George Bush's administration suffered maybe 13 incidents in which 4 Americans total were killed including 3 diplomats with no resulting investigations.***

Now in American politics, EVERYTHING is on the table.

REPUBLICANS USE "FULL COURT PRESS" AGAINST DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTS
The next step started with the election of Bill Clinton as president where the Republicans started out of the gate with a "full court press" to destroy his presidency.  They attacked him on everything and anything, even when he fired the travel office, something he had every right to do as president.  Unfortunately, in his second term Clinton gave them some fodder with his relationship to Monica Lewinski resulting in his impeachment but not conviction.  The intensity seemed to even escalate with the election of Barack Obama to the presidency with some added racial factors.  I feel it is a triumph that Obama even was able to finish two terms without being assassinated.

REFUSAL TO TAKE UP SUPREME COURT NOMINATION
Yet another step involved the refusal of the Republican Senate to even consider the Democratic candidate for the Supreme Court - Merrick Garland.  I have to wonder if the Bork incident many years before had something to do with it.  Curiously, the Garland nomination was the opposite of the Bork nomination.  Bork would have replaced a "moderate" Democrat where "moderate" Garland would have replaced a Republican.  The Supreme Court is supposed to be non-partisan, but we all know it is the ultimate partisan body.

THE MOVE TO PHYSICALITY
During Donald Trump's run for President, he spoke of "get 'em outta here" about protesters in which they were shoved and yelled at in a Kentucky rally.****.  At an Arizona rally, a protester was punched and kicked as he was being led out of the rally.  Then there was Trump's comment at a rally in Nevada about a protester, "I'd like to punch him in the face, I tell you."  And " They's be carried out on a stretcher, folks." in the old days.****  Though Trump says the protester was throwing punches, The conservative Weekly Standard "was just over exaggerating."

I hope another step has not been taken with the physical attack by a Montana congressional candidate on a news reporter.  I heard the tape of the incident, and it was hard to hear what ticked off the congressional candidate.  I'm somewhat reassured by the candidate's lengthy apology, though I find it disturbing that some of his voters liked his his getting physical.  I'm afraid there are many militants in the Republican Party that would like to get physical.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Bork_Supreme_Court_nomination
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy
*** http://www.snopes.com/u-s-embassy-attacks-compared/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/opinion/the-four-american-narratives.html
****http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/02/politics/donald-trump-lawsuit-incite-violence-kentucky-rally/index.html
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2016/03/20/trump-supporter-charged-with-assault-following-scuffle-at-arizona-rally/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/protester-would-be-carried-out-on-a-stretcher-in-the-old-days-trump-reminisces/article/2001211

RETIREMENT BEST PLACES (BANKRATE)

Bankrate has rated states that are the best places to retire.  Although North Carolina where I live feels they cater to retirees, they rate only 20th.  I can list only the top 21 here.  If your state is below that, go to the reference if you want to see your states rating.*

In overall rankings, New Hampshire comes in as #1, Colorado #2, and with Maine #3.  The three worst states are Arkansas, West Virginia and Alaska in declining order

Maine is rated #1 in health care quality with Wisconsin #2.  Vermont is the best state on crime with Maine #2.  Mississippi is rated to have the best cost of living (but overall rates #42 among all states) with Arkansas #2.  California is rated #1 on weather with Arizona #2.  New York is the best on taxes with California #2 (really?).  Florida is rated the best for seniors with Maine #2.  The best state for well being is Hawaii and Maine is #2.  the best state for culture is said to be New York followed by California.

Nevada gets the worst raking for health care quality followed by Mississippi.  New Mexico is ranked the worst on crime followed by Alaska. The worst state for cost of living is Hawaii with California #2.  Alaska has the worst weather followed by Vermont.  The worst states for culture are Mississippi followed by West Virginia.  Alaska is the worst state for seniors followed by Utah.  West Virginia ranks worst for well being with Kentucky as #2.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

In the rankings of what is important in making a decision on where to retire, cost of living was mentioned by 70% of respondents, this was followed by health care- 68%, crime rate - 67%, culture and social by 54%, weather 49%,  and the least important, taxes by 47%.

There are some surprises for me iin the overall list.  For example, South Dakota ranks #8 in the top 10.  My thesis adviser describe the Black Hills as an "oasis in a sea of despair."  California ranked #41 overall, even though it ranked first in weather and second in culture.

A surprise in North Carolina was that the conservative politicians in power eliminated the medical deduction for people living in continuing care facilities in order to give the top 100 families in the state a tax deduction.  This created quite a row and the medical deduction was restored after a couple of years. NC taxpayers who itemize will also once again be allowed to take a deduction for medical expenses beginning with the current 2015 tax year. The medical deduction limits will follow the same rules in place for medical deductions medical deductions by the IRS.**

* http://www.bankrate.com/retirement/states-ranked-from-first-to-worst-on-retirement-2/
** http://trpcpa.com/2015-nc-tax-changes-you-need-to-know/