Friday, February 5, 2016

JOB GROWTH, PRIVATE SECTOR, ADP, JANUARY 2016

According to ADP, the last three months of job growth exceeds by quite a bit from the beginning quarter of 2015.*
Medium-sized firms, with 50 to 499 employees, represented the largest contributor with 82,000 jobs, while companies with more than 500 workers added 44,000, just half December's total.
Professional and business services was the leading sector with 44,000, followed by trade, transportation and utilities [35,000) and construction [21,000]. The 13,000 jobs from goods producers represented a sharp decline from the 30,000 in December.*
The government rate for U-3 is much lower at 151,000.  I do not make an effort to resolve the difference between the two measures, but my impression is that the ADP rate is usually higher than the government rate.  Also the early government rate is skewed by the "birth-Death" model that guesses on new businesses and is really a rather rough estimate.  The value for it given next month can easily differ by 40,000; however

Another measure is the Vacancies/Unemployment Number (See Figure below):**

Note that the value of V/U recently is somewhat higher than before the Great Recession (but not higher than the 1990s high).

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/private-payrolls-up-205k-in-january-vs-195k-est-adpmoodys.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/but-whats-the-real-unemployment-rate.html

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