(This post was held up until after Justice Scalia's funeral)
Off the court, and I guess sometimes on it, Justice Scalia seemed like a affable fellow. Republicans are hungry for heros* so they are quick to deify him. They were quick also to say that the seat should be left open for the next president to fill, and I've heard that the Chief Justice has ordered a black cloth to be put over his chair out of respect.**
I've got an idea. Let's not replace Antonin Scalia and retire his seat on the Supreme Court. We can have a plaque put on the chair something like " In memory of Antonin Scalia, America's greatest Jurist" or some such superlative. Better yet lets have a likeness figure made. Let's see, wax doesn't sound permanent enough as sometimes there are heated discussions on the Supreme Court. Bronze might be better.
Of course this leaves the Supreme court with only 8 members. Most decisions are not close so there wouldn't be many ties that would leave the lower court decision intact. But in cases where the lower court ruling is wildly undemocratic (like Citizen's United that said that corporations are people*** and such), the court would lock at 4 and 4 leaving the lower court ruling intact, just like now isn't it? So no change from how the court operated while Justice Scalia was still alive, a fitting honor for the late Antonin Scalia.
But Republicans better be careful as there are more Democratic appointed judges than Republican. Already they have had a case where the Supreme court locked 4 - 4 leaving the lower court decision in tact, but I understand only for that district.
On to the next problem.
* Consider the deified President Ronald Reagan who never came close to balancing a budget and left the government with more employees than he started with (The first president since Lyndon Johnson to do so.). He had two embassy bombings, each much greater than the Benghazi affair and "cut and ran" when the marine barracks in Lebanan was bombed killing 241 American service men, emboldening terrorists that America would cave in if they were hit hard. He did achieve an ill considered great reduction in taxes for the wealthy, but once he realized what he had done, he instituted more than 10 tax increases taking back about half of the tax reduction. But Reagan had a spiritual attraction for Republicans which was what was important, I guess..
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/02/16/supreme-court-drapes-black-cloth-over-scalias-seat/
*** Just think, the CEO and Chairman of the Board (often the same person) not only gets to make a political donation for themselves but an even larger donation from their company, and they don't even have to tell their owners (stock holders) what they, the stock holders, donated for.
Monday, February 29, 2016
Saturday, February 27, 2016
REPUBLICAN PARTY HAS A PROBLEM
So the Republican Party has a problem. For a couple of decades, the party has enjoyed the support of the white working class without giving them anything except to say in election years that they are "The Real Americans." As the working class wages have stagnated and losing purchasing power through inflation, the aristocracy of the Republican Party has really felt the working class is overpaid. Even Donald Trump has said this on at least two occasions (He later said that he was talking about the minimum wage, but a depreciating minimum wage keeps all wages down.).* But now they are hopping mad and see a chance to take over the Republican Party through Donald Trump who talks like they do.
Particularly over the last 7 yrs, Republicans have stirred up a hate pot with the majority leader of the Senate saying first that his aim was to prevent Obama getting a second term and, when Obama did, instituted a "scorched Earth policy" of refusing to pass bills that even the Republicans want. The latest is that he will not take up a nomination to the supreme court, supposedly because it is the final year of the Obama administration. It should be left to the next president which means that the supreme court will have to get along with eight members, probably at least for two years if Hillary is elected President. The House has been even worse. Both have egged on this hatred, and now they are feeling the "Revolt Of The Great Republican Unwashed" along with a wealthier Republican contingent that likes to say things like "Sit Down And Shut Up" (the Chris Christy wing).** Donald Trump has come along who speaks their language and now the Republican Party is having to "stew in their own juices" that they fomented.
Chris Christy has now even endorsed Donald Trump. One wonders what he wants to get out of his endorsement. Secretary of Defense is not a good fit and Secretary of State is out for someone who "tells it like it is." I've got it, Secretary of Transportation where he has lots of experience. OK, joking aside, how about Chief of Staff?
* http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wages-are-too-high-2015-11
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/revolt-of-republican-great-unwashed.html
Particularly over the last 7 yrs, Republicans have stirred up a hate pot with the majority leader of the Senate saying first that his aim was to prevent Obama getting a second term and, when Obama did, instituted a "scorched Earth policy" of refusing to pass bills that even the Republicans want. The latest is that he will not take up a nomination to the supreme court, supposedly because it is the final year of the Obama administration. It should be left to the next president which means that the supreme court will have to get along with eight members, probably at least for two years if Hillary is elected President. The House has been even worse. Both have egged on this hatred, and now they are feeling the "Revolt Of The Great Republican Unwashed" along with a wealthier Republican contingent that likes to say things like "Sit Down And Shut Up" (the Chris Christy wing).** Donald Trump has come along who speaks their language and now the Republican Party is having to "stew in their own juices" that they fomented.
Chris Christy has now even endorsed Donald Trump. One wonders what he wants to get out of his endorsement. Secretary of Defense is not a good fit and Secretary of State is out for someone who "tells it like it is." I've got it, Secretary of Transportation where he has lots of experience. OK, joking aside, how about Chief of Staff?
* http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wages-are-too-high-2015-11
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/revolt-of-republican-great-unwashed.html
Friday, February 26, 2016
GDP 2010-2015
I don't know about you, but I don't recall such good GDP numbers as shown in the GDP figures below; yet the Dept. Commerce has been pretty consistently saying so (see second figure below):
There were minor downward revisions to consumer spending,
which accounts for more than two thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Consumer spending rose at a 2.0 percent pace rather than the 2.2 percent
rate reported last month.
Unusually mild weather hurt sales of winter apparel in December and undermined demand for heating through the quarter. But there are signs consumption picked up in January with the return to more normal winter temperatures.
With gasoline prices around $2 per gallon, a tightening labor market gradually lifting wages and house prices boosting household wealth, the fundamentals for consumer spending remain very strong.
Business spending on nonresidential structures contracted at a 6.6 percent rate rather than the 5.3 percent pace the government reported last month. Government spending contracted at a 0.1 percent rate instead of rising at a 0.7 percent rate.*
(
(Click on figures to enlarge))
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/26/us-q4-2015-revised-gdp.html (includes first figure)
Second figure reference:
(http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/04/29/another-year-another-weak-first-quarter-for-gdp-what-gives/?mod=djemRTE_h)
Unusually mild weather hurt sales of winter apparel in December and undermined demand for heating through the quarter. But there are signs consumption picked up in January with the return to more normal winter temperatures.
With gasoline prices around $2 per gallon, a tightening labor market gradually lifting wages and house prices boosting household wealth, the fundamentals for consumer spending remain very strong.
Business spending on nonresidential structures contracted at a 6.6 percent rate rather than the 5.3 percent pace the government reported last month. Government spending contracted at a 0.1 percent rate instead of rising at a 0.7 percent rate.*
(
(Click on figures to enlarge))
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/26/us-q4-2015-revised-gdp.html (includes first figure)
Second figure reference:
(http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/04/29/another-year-another-weak-first-quarter-for-gdp-what-gives/?mod=djemRTE_h)
Monday, February 22, 2016
THE PART-TIME JOB MYTH - 2016
A recent article by Vanguard once again disputes the myth that most jobs that are created are part-time.*
Between 2008 and early 2010, 11 million full-time jobs were lost in the U.S. economy. Nearly six years after the end of the global financial crisis, part-time workers still make up 18.5% of the labor market, above the prerecession level of 17%.
Nevertheless, claims that job growth since the recession has been fueled by part-time work are off-base. Official labor statistics indicate that nearly all net jobs created since early 2010 can be classified as full-time positions.
(Click on figure to enlarge)
* https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/gmm-us-labor-market-062015
Between 2008 and early 2010, 11 million full-time jobs were lost in the U.S. economy. Nearly six years after the end of the global financial crisis, part-time workers still make up 18.5% of the labor market, above the prerecession level of 17%.
Nevertheless, claims that job growth since the recession has been fueled by part-time work are off-base. Official labor statistics indicate that nearly all net jobs created since early 2010 can be classified as full-time positions.
* https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/gmm-us-labor-market-062015
Saturday, February 20, 2016
CELL PHONE SECURITY
Why should cell phones be the only secure thing? Showing probable cause to a judge, officials can get permission to bug your home, tap your land line phone, get your bank records, open safe deposit boxes, look at your mail, and others. What is it about cell phones that they should be the lone exception to government intrusion?
Friday, February 19, 2016
BUILD BRIDGES, NOT WALLS
Pope Francis gave a reprimand to America at the Mexico-U.S. border for giving only attention to building "walls" rather than "bridges" that is not Christian.* This has broadly been taken as a reprimand to Donald Trump who took offense as the implication he is not a Christian, but think about it for a little. Donald Trump only made this promise because he knew there were millions of white Republican workers plus the "Sit Down And Shut Up" Republican crew who are for this (and deporting illegal immigrants as well). And a wall is just a fence that you can't look through. Every Republican candidate for President (and maybe the Democratic candidates as well) is at least for completing a double fence on our Mexican border. John Kasich, however, expressed something worth considering:
Kasich is telling viewers of a CNN town hall to "put me down in the pro-Pope column."
...............................................................
Kasich says: "We have a right to build a wall. But I gotta tell you. There are too many walls between us. We need bridges between us if we're going to fix the problems in Washington 'cause all they do is have walls."
A men, John.
Kasich's attitude of not speaking ill of his challengers is starting to take hold and he is appearing more and more on TV news programs for interviews of just comments.
And it may bare repeating that by law there is no such thing as a Cuban illegal immigrant. Any Cuban who can step on American shores is legal (if they are caught at sea, however they are returned to Cuba).
* http://www.northjersey.com/news/at-gop-town-hall-kasich-says-he-s-pro-pope-in-battle-vs-trump-1.1514403
Kasich is telling viewers of a CNN town hall to "put me down in the pro-Pope column."
...............................................................
Kasich says: "We have a right to build a wall. But I gotta tell you. There are too many walls between us. We need bridges between us if we're going to fix the problems in Washington 'cause all they do is have walls."
A men, John.
Kasich's attitude of not speaking ill of his challengers is starting to take hold and he is appearing more and more on TV news programs for interviews of just comments.
And it may bare repeating that by law there is no such thing as a Cuban illegal immigrant. Any Cuban who can step on American shores is legal (if they are caught at sea, however they are returned to Cuba).
* http://www.northjersey.com/news/at-gop-town-hall-kasich-says-he-s-pro-pope-in-battle-vs-trump-1.1514403
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
JUSTICE ANTONIN SCALIA -- RIP
I think it best at this time to let the Republican Party morn the death of one of its most important political leaders - Antonin Scalia; however, I give a neutral reference to a compendium of his sayings with one quote below:
“The interpretive philosophy of the ‘living constitution’ – a document whose meaning changes to suit the times, as the Supreme Court sees the times – continues to predominate in the courts, and in the law schools. Indeed, it even predominates in the perception of the ordinary citizen, who has come to believe that what he violently abhors must be unconstitutional.”
— Antonin Scalia, Forword to Originalism: A Quarter-Century of Debate, 43 (Steven G. Calabresi, ed. Regnery Publishing 2007).
* http://websage.us/law/scalia.htm
“The interpretive philosophy of the ‘living constitution’ – a document whose meaning changes to suit the times, as the Supreme Court sees the times – continues to predominate in the courts, and in the law schools. Indeed, it even predominates in the perception of the ordinary citizen, who has come to believe that what he violently abhors must be unconstitutional.”
— Antonin Scalia, Forword to Originalism: A Quarter-Century of Debate, 43 (Steven G. Calabresi, ed. Regnery Publishing 2007).
* http://websage.us/law/scalia.htm
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
AMERICAN PRODUCTIVITY DECLINE
American productivity has been declining since 2003:* Just why is unclear. Is it real or mismeasurement or a difficulty of measurement?
(Click to enlarge)
In a research note in May, Mr. Hatzius and fellow Goldman economist Kris Dawsey argued productivity might not be so bad.**
.......................................................................
Maybe initially the cupcake ATM is jamming and smushing the cupcakes, but over time the kinks get worked out and every cupcake comes out flawlessly. There’s been some quality improvement, but it’s hard to capture.
Secondly, the statistics may fail to capture the value of new products. How do you measure the economic value of, say, Google? The company’s revenues come primarily from advertising. The vast majority of Google’s users never pay a dime but obviously derive value from the ability to trawl the Internet.
Mr. Feroli of J.P. Morgan and his fellow economist Jesse Edgerton disagree.**
.........................................................................
The timeline of new technologies, they argue, doesn’t align with the productivity slump.
“The beginnings of many of the most prominent more recent technologies stretch back well before the financial crisis. Cellphones, home computers, email, and the World Wide Web gained ground rapidly in the late 1990s and were already widespread in the early 2000s,” they write.**
......................................................................
Perhaps Silicon Valley is changing the world in ways that can’t be measured. Or perhaps somebody in Silicon Valley is hyping new technology as transformational to try to sell you something. Maybe a cupcake.**
*http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/12/why-does-u-s-productivity-look-so-abysmal-not-mismeasurement-paper-says/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/16/goldman-sachs-and-j-p-morgan-cant-agree-why-the-economys-productivity-has-slumped/
In a research note in May, Mr. Hatzius and fellow Goldman economist Kris Dawsey argued productivity might not be so bad.**
.......................................................................
Maybe initially the cupcake ATM is jamming and smushing the cupcakes, but over time the kinks get worked out and every cupcake comes out flawlessly. There’s been some quality improvement, but it’s hard to capture.
Secondly, the statistics may fail to capture the value of new products. How do you measure the economic value of, say, Google? The company’s revenues come primarily from advertising. The vast majority of Google’s users never pay a dime but obviously derive value from the ability to trawl the Internet.
Goldman’s economists conclude: “We walk away persuaded by the notion
that productivity mismeasurement could be a significant issue.”**
........................................................................Mr. Feroli of J.P. Morgan and his fellow economist Jesse Edgerton disagree.**
.........................................................................
The timeline of new technologies, they argue, doesn’t align with the productivity slump.
“The beginnings of many of the most prominent more recent technologies stretch back well before the financial crisis. Cellphones, home computers, email, and the World Wide Web gained ground rapidly in the late 1990s and were already widespread in the early 2000s,” they write.**
......................................................................
Perhaps Silicon Valley is changing the world in ways that can’t be measured. Or perhaps somebody in Silicon Valley is hyping new technology as transformational to try to sell you something. Maybe a cupcake.**
*http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/12/why-does-u-s-productivity-look-so-abysmal-not-mismeasurement-paper-says/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/16/goldman-sachs-and-j-p-morgan-cant-agree-why-the-economys-productivity-has-slumped/
Saturday, February 13, 2016
FIVE FEDERAL MINIMUM WAGES?
A problem with adjusting the minimum wage to the local economies may be that it insures that the poor stay poor. A $15/hr minimum wage in Alabama, for example, may be very uplifting.
Click to enlarge)
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/11/one-solution-for-the-federal-minimum-wage-five-minimum-wages/?mod=djemRTE_h
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/11/one-solution-for-the-federal-minimum-wage-five-minimum-wages/?mod=djemRTE_h
Thursday, February 11, 2016
AND THEN THERE WERE ....
So the latest Republicans to drop out of the Republican nomination race are: Chris (SIT DOWN AND SHUT UP) Christy and Carly (WOMEN NEED NOT APPLY) Fiorino.
So that leaves Donald (THE HATER) Trump, JEB (TOO MANY) Bush, Marco (THE ROBOT) Rubio, Ted (THE AWFUL) Cruz, John (CHRISTIAN) Kasich, Ben (THE SURGEON) Carson,
So that leaves Donald (THE HATER) Trump, JEB (TOO MANY) Bush, Marco (THE ROBOT) Rubio, Ted (THE AWFUL) Cruz, John (CHRISTIAN) Kasich, Ben (THE SURGEON) Carson,
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
WORKERS QUITTING JOBS AT 15 YR HIGH
An article in the WSJ shows workers quitting at the highest level sincemid-2001.*
(Click on figure to enlarge)
The article states that the the workforce is approaching full employment, but isn't that because of declining participation? The unique status of the U.S. having the only declining workforce participation among advanced countries,** may somehow be related to the stagnation of wages?
* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/09/voluntary-job-quitting-hits-highest-level-in-nine-years/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/02/workforce-participation-rates-by-year.html
The article states that the the workforce is approaching full employment, but isn't that because of declining participation? The unique status of the U.S. having the only declining workforce participation among advanced countries,** may somehow be related to the stagnation of wages?
* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/02/09/voluntary-job-quitting-hits-highest-level-in-nine-years/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/02/workforce-participation-rates-by-year.html
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
WEALTH OF WORLD'S RICHEST PEOPLE
The figure below show that 62 of the world's richest people no matches that of the bottom 50% of the people in the world.* I urge you to read the whole article.
The top 1% of the world’s population controls more wealth than the rest of the world combined, the report said. Last year, the average wealth of each of the 72 million adults belonging to the richest 1% was $1.7 million, compared with about $5,000 for the 6.48 billion people in the bottom 90%.*
(Click on the figure to enlarge)
* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/01/17/the-worlds-62-richest-people-hold-as-much-wealth-as-the-bottom-3-5-billion-new-report-says/?mod=djemRTE_h
The top 1% of the world’s population controls more wealth than the rest of the world combined, the report said. Last year, the average wealth of each of the 72 million adults belonging to the richest 1% was $1.7 million, compared with about $5,000 for the 6.48 billion people in the bottom 90%.*
* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/01/17/the-worlds-62-richest-people-hold-as-much-wealth-as-the-bottom-3-5-billion-new-report-says/?mod=djemRTE_h
Sunday, February 7, 2016
CRUZ DIRTY TRICKS
Dirty Tricks (Note Added February 07, 2016 to Cruz)
Donald Trump claimed that Cruz stole the Iowa election and he might well have as he pulled two dirty tricks right before and during the caucuses. The first and most mild one is:
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is defending a campaign mailer that Iowa’s secretary of state says misrepresents election law.
(1)The mailer bills itself as a “voting violation” notice and tells the recipient it’s been sent due to “low expected voter turnout in your area.” It then grades the recipient’s voting history and that of several neighbors, citing public records.
..........................................................................
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate says in a statement that there’s “no such thing” as an election violation related to voting frequency and that insinuating otherwise is “not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses.”
It is not clear to me that this notice benefited Cruz except that expect he sent to to districts or more elderly people where he thought he might benefit. It has been said that the names and the number of elections they have missed do not track and that the notice is just made up.*
(2)Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Wednesday accused rival Ted Cruz of stealing a victory in the Iowa caucuses and called for another vote or nullification of Cruz's win.
Trump had gone into Monday's caucus voting ahead of the Texas senator by 5 percentage points in a key poll but Cruz ended up winning, four points ahead of the New York billionaire.
"Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it," Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweeted. "That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!"
..........................................................................
Trump, who finished second behind Cruz, lit up Twitter on Wednesday with a series of posts saying the outcome was tainted because the Cruz campaign had deliberately spread misinformation about Trump's stand on Obamacare and an erroneous report that Ben Carson was dropping out of the race.**
........................................................................
"The press is reporting that Dr. Ben Carson is taking time off from the campaign trail after Iowa and making a big announcement next week," the Cruz email read, according to CNN. "Please inform any Carson caucusgoers (sic) of this news and urge them to caucus for Ted Cruz."
I wonder what dirty tricks Cruz has planned for New Hampshire?
* http://nbc4i.com/2016/01/31/ted-cruz-campaign-sends-iowans-notice-of-voting-violation
** http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/elections/trump-ted-cruz-stole-iowa-caucuses
Donald Trump claimed that Cruz stole the Iowa election and he might well have as he pulled two dirty tricks right before and during the caucuses. The first and most mild one is:
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is defending a campaign mailer that Iowa’s secretary of state says misrepresents election law.
(1)The mailer bills itself as a “voting violation” notice and tells the recipient it’s been sent due to “low expected voter turnout in your area.” It then grades the recipient’s voting history and that of several neighbors, citing public records.
..........................................................................
Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate says in a statement that there’s “no such thing” as an election violation related to voting frequency and that insinuating otherwise is “not in keeping in the spirit of the Iowa Caucuses.”
It is not clear to me that this notice benefited Cruz except that expect he sent to to districts or more elderly people where he thought he might benefit. It has been said that the names and the number of elections they have missed do not track and that the notice is just made up.*
(2)Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Wednesday accused rival Ted Cruz of stealing a victory in the Iowa caucuses and called for another vote or nullification of Cruz's win.
Trump had gone into Monday's caucus voting ahead of the Texas senator by 5 percentage points in a key poll but Cruz ended up winning, four points ahead of the New York billionaire.
"Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it," Trump (@realDonaldTrump) tweeted. "That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!"
..........................................................................
Trump, who finished second behind Cruz, lit up Twitter on Wednesday with a series of posts saying the outcome was tainted because the Cruz campaign had deliberately spread misinformation about Trump's stand on Obamacare and an erroneous report that Ben Carson was dropping out of the race.**
........................................................................
"The press is reporting that Dr. Ben Carson is taking time off from the campaign trail after Iowa and making a big announcement next week," the Cruz email read, according to CNN. "Please inform any Carson caucusgoers (sic) of this news and urge them to caucus for Ted Cruz."
I wonder what dirty tricks Cruz has planned for New Hampshire?
* http://nbc4i.com/2016/01/31/ted-cruz-campaign-sends-iowans-notice-of-voting-violation
** http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/elections/trump-ted-cruz-stole-iowa-caucuses
Friday, February 5, 2016
JOB GROWTH, PRIVATE SECTOR, ADP, JANUARY 2016
According to ADP, the last three months of job growth exceeds by quite a bit from the beginning quarter of 2015.*
Medium-sized firms, with 50 to 499 employees, represented the largest contributor with 82,000 jobs, while companies with more than 500 workers added 44,000, just half December's total.
Professional and business services was the leading sector with 44,000, followed by trade, transportation and utilities [35,000) and construction [21,000]. The 13,000 jobs from goods producers represented a sharp decline from the 30,000 in December.*
The government rate for U-3 is much lower at 151,000. I do not make an effort to resolve the difference between the two measures, but my impression is that the ADP rate is usually higher than the government rate. Also the early government rate is skewed by the "birth-Death" model that guesses on new businesses and is really a rather rough estimate. The value for it given next month can easily differ by 40,000; however
Another measure is the Vacancies/Unemployment Number (See Figure below):**
Note that the value of V/U recently is somewhat higher than before the Great Recession (but not higher than the 1990s high).
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/private-payrolls-up-205k-in-january-vs-195k-est-adpmoodys.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/but-whats-the-real-unemployment-rate.html
Medium-sized firms, with 50 to 499 employees, represented the largest contributor with 82,000 jobs, while companies with more than 500 workers added 44,000, just half December's total.
Professional and business services was the leading sector with 44,000, followed by trade, transportation and utilities [35,000) and construction [21,000]. The 13,000 jobs from goods producers represented a sharp decline from the 30,000 in December.*
Another measure is the Vacancies/Unemployment Number (See Figure below):**
Note that the value of V/U recently is somewhat higher than before the Great Recession (but not higher than the 1990s high).
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/private-payrolls-up-205k-in-january-vs-195k-est-adpmoodys.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/05/but-whats-the-real-unemployment-rate.html
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION RATES (BY YEAR)
The decline in workforce participation uin the U.S,. is unique among develoed countries:* Though Sweden went though a period of workforce participation in
decline, in recent years it has begun to increase again. But in
spite of it all, Sweden has the highest workforce participation. Spain
that at one time had the lowest workforce participation went through a
period of rapid increase, but the rate has flattened in recent
years. You can see in the figure, however, that the U.S. is unique
among these countries in having a rapid decline in workforce
participation since about 1998.
Among men age 25-54, the workforce participation rate started to decline as far back as the late 1970s, but the women's participation rate climbed until the late 1980s when it too started to decline. Though the decline started before the Great Recession, it has picked up steam since. No one seems to have any ideas as to why this is happening. One might suppose, however, that the stagnation of workers salaries may be having an effect. How are the dropouts making their way? Perhaps there is a return to one worker families or people are working on the side (e.g working individually out of their homes), but no one knows.
Among men age 25-54, the workforce participation rate started to decline as far back as the late 1970s, but the women's participation rate climbed until the late 1980s when it too started to decline. Though the decline started before the Great Recession, it has picked up steam since. No one seems to have any ideas as to why this is happening. One might suppose, however, that the stagnation of workers salaries may be having an effect. How are the dropouts making their way? Perhaps there is a return to one worker families or people are working on the side (e.g working individually out of their homes), but no one knows.
* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/06/26/the-u-s-stands-out-on-labor-force-participation-rates/
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