TAXES: DISCUSSIONS ON REUNITE GONDWANALAND

Discussions of taxes with emphasis on tax cuts not paying for themselves is a central theme of this board.  Below is a list of items published on this board regarding taxes.

The list puts the oldest items first (2010) and increases in time to the present (2018).  Items with ** refer to tax cuts not paying for themselves.  I believe that the oldest item is a contribution t the effect of personal tax cuts on stimulating the economy.  Items with * are other important items.

** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.htm\
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/09/jobs-disconnect-between-business-and.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/07/trouble-with-income-tax-cuts.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/09/de-developing-america.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/09/chicken-egg-economics.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/09/welfare-for-wealthy.html
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/06/lowering-tax-myth.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/07/is-income-of-250000yr-rich.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/09/fiscal-cliff.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/10/eighteen-small-business-tax-cuts.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/12/inheritance-taxes.htmll
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/02/republicans-raising-taxes.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/never-satisfied.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/02/american-recovery-and-reinvestment-act.html
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/tax-cuts-and-economic-stimulation.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/bully-in-china-shop.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/04/tax-plan-baloney.html
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/taxes-america-versus-world.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/tax-holiday-for-repatriation-of.html
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/tax-cuts-do-not-pay-for-themselves.html
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/tax-cuts-do-not-pay-for-themselves-ii.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/never-satisfied.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/my-posts-and-corporate-tax-cuts-ii.html
**http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/pouring-gasoline-on-fire.html
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/12/dont-be-fooled-by-congressional-tax-plan.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/12/we-need-to-pass-bill-to-find-out-whats.htm
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/stock-price-outlook-for-2017.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/03/tariffs-and-how-will-tax-reduction.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/04/happiest-countries-and-american-states.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/08/tax-cuts-and-federal-deficits.html

TAX CUTS AND FEDERAL DEFICITS

Well, the chickens are coming home to roost. and there are going to be bigger Federal deficits despite the public comments by Republicans that the tax cut will pay for itself.   They always say this, but it never happens.  After the tax cut, there is an increase in deficit spending by the government that does help boost the economy and smoothes a recession.  But now with a tax cut on top of a roaring economy, the Federal deficit is increasing, not decreasing or staying the same.

• The federal government recorded a $76.9 billion deficit in July, with increased government spending and tax cuts keeping the country on track to record its biggest annual deficit in six years.
• The Trump administration last month sharply revised upward its deficit estimates, projecting annual deficits will once again top $1 trillion next year.*

I hate to be hard on Bush-43,** but I think that having a tax cut during a war was criminal.  Having a tax cut during a recession may just happen to help to speed the economic recovery.  But to have a tax cut on a roaring economy, like we had to 2017, is pouring gasoline on a fire.  Companies will have a record amount of stock buybacks (see figure).  The best you can say about this is that it helps buoy up the stock markets, but stock buybacks are largely wasted money.  Rather than a tax cut, we should be paying off the deficit incurred because of the Great Recession.

(click on figure to enlarge)

I subscribe to Keynes who said that the government should borrow money during the downstage of the business cycle and pay it back on the up part of the business cycle.  We have been pretty good at borrowing money on the down part, but we forget to pay it back, including now when Federal deficits are on the upswing because of the tax cuts, rather than paying off the borrowing as a result of the Great Recession.

Republicans need a Democratic President so that they can rediscover their job of cutting the deficit, but a tax cut trumps all for Republicans.  At war, cut the taxes.  Roaring economy, cut taxes.  Irresponsible.

Note To Readers: The effect of tax cuts has been a central theme of this blog.  In a separate post, I will list my items that have something to do with taxes, including tax cuts.

*https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/--us-budget-deficit-increases-21percent-on-track-for-biggest-gap-in-six-yea.html
** George W. Bush (Bush-43) is a candidate for worst president ever.   Not only did he preside over the financial collapse of 2008-2009, but got us involved in the quagmire of Middle East politics by going to war with Iraq, something we are still in.  I believe he is also the only president to have a tax cut during a war.  Unbelievable.  I don't blame him for Afghanistan war.  We had to do something, even if it ended badly.  Bush also showed sympathy for Hispanic illegals, which was admirable, but unfortunately, other events dominate.

NELLIJA VALIDA OLEKS STORY - III (NELLIJA GOES CAMPING)

(This is the third of some stories about a woman who was talented but could not get herself to write up her own stories.  She lived in Latvia, Poland, and Germany during WW-II  She is now deceased, and I have decided to write up some of her stories in her memory.  Part I is at http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/04/nellija-valida-oleks-story-i.html and Part II is at http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/05/nellija-valida-oleks-story-ii.html)  For an account of life in Europe during WW-II see the story by her younger sister Andra Karena Oleks at http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/05/world-war-ii-through-eyes-of-child_11.html

I wanted Nellija to go camping with me back about 1960.  She didn't want to do it.  I would ask her why and she would reply about all the bombing and strafing.  I told her that this is peacetime and there wouldn’t be any bombing and strafing.  She didn't seem convinced but finally agreed to go.  We were visiting folks up in Minnesota at the time so we drove north with the target of going into Canada and across the Trans-Canada Hwy. to the East.  It was still under construction in spots.

Well, we got to the North Shore of Lake Superior and set up my two-person mountain tent, made a fire an ate.  It started to rain, but softly.  I was a bit apprehensive, but Nellija seemed to be all right and we were happy.  The next night we stopped in Canada at a campground near a little lake.  The spot was very pretty.  Again it started to rain, and I didn't think much of it.  Then there was the worst thunder and lightning storm I have ever been in and seemingly right over us.  If anything mirrored bombing and strafing, that was it.

So that was nearly the end of camping.  As we drove east across Canada, we would ask about the road ahead. and were told there might be a spot we would have to be dragged through by a tractor, but it wouldn't be bad.  Well, we would get to the spot only to find it freshly paved so that was good.  In the east, I found a hotel in a little town and we checked in.  I think it was the first time in a long time a woman was there with her husband.  Nellija wanted to take a bath in the central bathroom, and I had to stand guard while she washed up.

Then we drove south to the U.S. stopping by Niagra Falls, a new experience for her.  We camped again at a campground at Watkins Glen in New York.  A truck came by in the campground and sprayed us with insecticide while we were eating dinner.  I complained to the ranger who just said the insecticide wasn't poisonous to humans.  BS.

Well, that was the end of camping.

Note added August 13, 2018: Nellija's younger sister (Andra Oleks) said she forgot about the bombing and strafing incidents.  It was so terrible that she thinks she pushed it out of her active memory, but Nellija's story brought it back.  I don't know if this is good ar bad.

I REALLY DON'T CARE DO YOU? - III

I've continued to wonder what Melania Trump meant by her jacket that read "I Really Don't Care.  Do U?"  It was hard to believe that she was referring to the children of illegal immigrants being taken from their parents.  Perhaps she made the trips (two of them) to buck up the Americans involved in doing the dirty work of taking children from their parents.  I mean, you can be against illegal immigration but against taking children away from their parents, in many cases small children.

But there also reason to believe that Melania Trump is developing some independence.  First, there was her Anti-Bullying campaign.  As I have said elsewhere:
"Some news people make fun of her as she is married to the biggest Bully anyone has ever heard of.  I wish they wouldn't do that.  After all, you can be sure that she has been bullied by her husband, maybe daily.**

 Since then certain things keep creeping out like she watches her own TV on Air Force One and it isn't turned to Fox News.

It occurs to me as Melania is the only one in the Trump family to visit the border (and did it twice) and view some of the children imprisoned away from their mothers.  I guess that Trump didn't want her to go. Could it be that she was sending a message to her husband that she didn't care what her husband felt about the situation and she was going anyway?

I have a feeling this independence development is not over.  Stay tuned.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/melania-trump-onbullying.html
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/04/donald-melania-trump-marriage

WHICH ELECTED REPUBLICANS ARE FOR AMERICA? A CORRECTION

I hesitated to publish WHICH ELECTED REPUBLICANS ARE FOR AMERICA? (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/08/which-elected-republican-congressmen.html) because I was sure there should be some elected Republicans for America.  Sure enough, no sooner had I published the article than I thought of Maine Sen. Susan Collins and  I think Alaska Sen.  Lisa Murkowski probably could be counted on as well.  My apologies to them.

Also, I believe that Arizona Sen. John McCain deserves to be mentioned even though he can no longer vote because of his cancer.  He still writes tweets, however, that speak truth.  He is sorely missed.

Former Representative Rep. charlie Dent was pro-America but he is gone.

I apologize for my omissions and am glad to try to remedy them.

WHICH ELECTED REPUBLICANS ARE FOR AMERICA?

Although I can name many Republicans in non-elected positions who are for America (Dep. Attorney Gen. Rob Rosenstein, Dir. DNI Dan Coasts, Sec. James Mattis, FBI Director Christopher Wray, a new name to me Head Of The National Security Agency Gen Paul Nakasone, among others), I really can't name many Republican elected politicians.  Then some appointed politicians seem to be for America some of the time.  For example, Kirstjen Michele Nielsen of homeland security joined the group of national security members to warn of a severe Russian threat to our national security.   Most of the time, however, she goes along with the administration, e.g. the immigration children separation, etc.  Perhaps she felt safe in a group.

Note added August 6th:  I should mention that John McCain is for America though he is unable to vote anymore because of his cancer.  He has been a beam of truth in a cloud of despair.

Though I can't find any elected Republicans that are consistently for America with the possible exception of Maine Sen. Susan Collins, some seem to be for America some of the time, i.e. Alaska Sen.  Lisa Murkowski and South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham.  Some others, for examples, Bob Corker, Jeff Flake, and Orin Hatch, who are not seeking reelection, often come out with pro-America statements, though they too knuckle under in certain cases.  On occasion Paul Ryan says things that are pro-America, he has done nothing to roping in Russia asset  DevenNunes.  He also seems to be ineffective on the House Freedom Caucus.  When he decided not to run for office again, maybe he should have just retired.  I'm not sure because his replacement might be even worse.

When Trump was elected, the Republican Party ceased to be one that talked about individual liberties and upward mobility. Being a Republican in the Trump era meant excusing racially insensitive remarks made by the president, dismissing hush payments made to porn actresses, and condemning serious investigations into Trump’s attempts to obstruct other investigations. The party of individual responsibility packed its bags and left for a bellicose strongman who promised to care for all of Americans’ needs through the sheer force of his personality.*

Though Bob Corker said he would not vote for a funding bill that had a dime of the deficit, he ended up signing the government tax-cut funding bill that had a trillion dollars or so in deficit.  He claimed it was possible that the economy would grow so much as to balance out.  Well, that's optimism for. you.  When news media called him on this, he claimed the media to be unfair.

There has been lots of attack on Peter Strzok by Republicans for sending anti-Trump text messages to a woman friend.  Though he won't say, my guess is that he votes Republican though he may not have voted for Donald Trump.  I once said I thought that 90% of military officers are Republican and some of my military friends said they thought I was too conservative.  The FBI is a quasi-military organization so I presume, like the military, 90% of FB{I agents are Republican.  In fact, many FBI agents come from the military.  While I think that Strzok wasn't biased in his duties, he deserves some sort of reprimand or even firing for using government property for personal conversations.

* https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/04/11/house-speaker-paul-ryan-retires-republican-party-congress-column/507130002/

AGRICULTURAL SOCIALISM

Americas Global Tariff War is gradually taking hold.  The problem with most (wheat and frozen potatoes excepted) agricultural products is that tariffs are hurting American farmers a lot. The effect on soybeans has been well documented.*  The price of pork has suffered also because of 20% tariffs imposed by Mexico and China.**  The latest to suffer is apparently chicken farmers.  The problem is such that the President has proposed a $12 billion subsidy to hel[p out the farmers.

The effect of talking about this subsidy is curious.  Farmers said they would rather compete than have a subsidy to help alleviate the problems of our Global Tariff War.  Now think about that a minute.  Aren't there lots of farm subsidies already?  Yes, about 39% of farmers receive some subsidy from the Federal government, mainly to what is called agribusiness:
The federal government spends more than $20 billion a year on subsidies for farm businesses. About 39 percent of the nation's 2.1 million farms receive subsidies, with the lion's share of the handouts going to the largest producers of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice.***
.................................................................
Agriculture has long attracted federal support. The Morrill Act of 1862 established the land-grant colleges to teach agriculture and other subjects. The Hatch Act of 1887 funded agricultural research, and the Smith-Lever Act of 1914 funded agricultural education. The Federal Farm Loan Act of 1916 created cooperative banks to provide loans to farmers. That developed into today's Farm Credit System, which is a government-sponsored financial system with more than $280 billion in assets***.
................................................................
Between the 1940s and the 1980s, Congress considered farm policy reforms occasionally, usually when commodity prices were high, but then reverted to subsidy expansions when prices were lower.³ In the 1980s the Reagan administration proposed cuts to farm subsidies, but farm finances took a bad turn, and that prompted Congress to increase farm aid, not reduce it.***
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In 1996 Congress enacted reforms under the "Freedom to Farm" law, which allowed farmers greater flexibility in planting and increased reliance on market supply and demand. But Congress reversed course in the late 1990s, and it passed a series of supplemental farm subsidy bills. As a result, subsidies over the seven years of the 1996 farm bill ended up costing more than double what had been promised.***
................................................................

In 2002 Congress enacted a farm bill that further reversed the 1996 reforms. The law increased projected subsidy payments, added new crops to the subsidy rolls, and created a new price guarantee scheme called the countercyclical program. The 2002 law increased projected farm subsidy payments by 74 percent over 10 years.⁵

In 2008 Congress overrode a presidential veto to enact farm legislation that added further subsidies. The law created a permanent disaster aid program and added a revenue protection program for farmers to lock in profits from high commodity prices. It added a sugar-to-ethanol program to keep sugar prices artificially high, and it added new subsidies for "specialty crops" such as fruits and vegetables.***

Then there is what happened in 2014 that I'll skip.  If you want to know more, please see the reference.   Girls and boys, while farming is still a risky business, farmers are getting lots of subsidies already.  

My guess is that, if once enacted, the $12  billion of farm subsidy to alleviate effects of our Global Tariff War won't go away but will just be more agricultural Socialism going mainly to agribusiness.

*http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/07/not-all-tariffs-are-bad-for-american.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/us-china-trade-war-idaho-may-be-biggest-victim-but-not-for-potatoes.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/trumps-12-billion-aid-for-farmers-risks-unintended-consequences.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/tariffs-are-about-to-hit-consumers-and-it-wont-be-pretty.htm
** https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/mexico-will-impose-20-percent-tariffs-u-s-pork-n880176
https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/pig-farmers-hope-chinas-tariff-us-pork-short-lived
*** https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/agriculture/subsidiesl