So Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee. I guess I am going to have to comment on him some more. The Republican Great Unwashed* seem to have won, but have they? On at least two occasions, Trump has said that American wages are too high. Is saying that illegal immigrants should be deported, a wall built on our Southern border with Mexico and a temporary ban on Muslims entering America good enough "pay.?"
As Bill Clinton once noted, "Democrats like to fall in love; Republicans like to fall in line." So now we are seeing Republicans falling in line, even other failed nominees who said such awful (if true) things about him.
Donald Trump stated on This Week With George Stephanopolis that the tax plan he has presented is a starting point. He said that the final plan will be arrived at through negotiations. This is what you might expect from a Deal Maker. In others words, he is a compromiser. So in the future as he seems to change positions, what he actually is doing is trying to arrive at a deal. It may feel like a random walk, but what he is trying to do is arrive at a deal. This is something to consider as the election process continues its slow process.
He had mentioned on Sunday that taxes for the wealthy might go up a bit. He has now clarified this in that he meant up from what is stated in his tax plan, not from what the taxes are now. In other words, he thinks that taxes on the wealthy won't be cut as much as in his plan.
And regarding his interchange with Paul Ryan, Speaker of The House, in what way is Trump not conservative? I might even side with Trump if the problem is to use religion as an excuse to discriminate against someone. Trump may be against this, but I'm not sure. But what is Trump saying on policies that "conservatives" don't like? He says he will get rid of Obamacare,** lower taxes on the wealthy, reduce the national debt. Aren't all these "conservative" policies? Perhaps Trump saying he is against abortion except in cases of rape, incest, and preserve the life of the mother isn't strong enough?. Of course, one thing the establishment of the Republican Party would like is for Trump to use less intemperate language. It is all right to think these things and discuss them in private, but they should not be said out loud.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/revolt-of-republican-great-unwashed.html
** Republicans, however, have trouble replacing Obamacare with something else because Obamacare IS the "conservative" health plan. It is run by private businesses (insurance companies) and supposedly invokes competition; however, in North Carolina where I live, there is only one health care plan in Obamacare so there is no competition.
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Thursday, May 5, 2016
ADP JOBS AND JOBLESS CLAIMS FOR APRIL 2016
I usually don't pay much attention to the ADP employment numbers and wait a few days for the Federal employment numbers but an interesting graph was presented on CNBC regarding ADP numbers (see below).*
Overall, the ISM nonmanufacturing reading grew to 55.7 from 54.5. The ISM manufacturing index, which was released Monday, declined a full point to 50.8, with the employment component gaining 1.1 points to 49.2, which is still in contraction.**
..................................................................................
Respondents to the nonmanufacturing survey were generally optimistic about business conditions, with one construction leader noting a "severe nonskilled labor shortage" that is "hurting the construction industry."**
(click on figure to enlarge)
Jobless claims moved up last week but were still well below 300.000. Applications for jobless benefits have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 55 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, nudged up 250 to 259,750 last week.***
............................................................................
The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 39,000 to 2.18 million in the week ended March 12.***
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/private-sector-payrolls-april-2016.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/05/goldman-sachs-thinks-the-street-is-wrong-about-april-jobs.html
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/24/us-weekly-jobless-claims-mar-19-2016.html
Overall, the ISM nonmanufacturing reading grew to 55.7 from 54.5. The ISM manufacturing index, which was released Monday, declined a full point to 50.8, with the employment component gaining 1.1 points to 49.2, which is still in contraction.**
..................................................................................
Respondents to the nonmanufacturing survey were generally optimistic about business conditions, with one construction leader noting a "severe nonskilled labor shortage" that is "hurting the construction industry."**
Jobless claims moved up last week but were still well below 300.000. Applications for jobless benefits have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 55 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, nudged up 250 to 259,750 last week.***
............................................................................
The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 39,000 to 2.18 million in the week ended March 12.***
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/private-sector-payrolls-april-2016.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/05/goldman-sachs-thinks-the-street-is-wrong-about-april-jobs.html
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/24/us-weekly-jobless-claims-mar-19-2016.html
Thursday, April 28, 2016
STOCK MARKET BEHAVIER OVER THE LONG TERM - FROM 2016
Over the next long period of time (Motley Fool* picks 50 yrs, John Bogle** picks 10 yrs) the real return on the stock markets is likely to be something like 5% (Bogle) to 5.5% (Motley Fool)
* http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/how-have-stocks-fared-the-last-50-years-youll-be-s.aspx
At the end of 1965, the Shiller CAPE stood at 23.6, and today it stands at 24.3. The historical average is 16.7.
So, using just this one measurement, stocks are about as expensive today as they were 50 years ago. If the next 50 years show returns in the same ballpark as the past 50 -- and they are working off roughly the same valuation starting point -- then investors will do acceptably if they're expecting returns in the area of 5.5% over that time period.
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/26/jack-bogle-theres-no-stock-pickers-market.html
Amid earnings season Bogle warns that the market may see five percent investment return, well below the norms over the next decade, but "it's better than nothing and certainly no reason to get out of the market," he said.
* http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/04/22/how-have-stocks-fared-the-last-50-years-youll-be-s.aspx
At the end of 1965, the Shiller CAPE stood at 23.6, and today it stands at 24.3. The historical average is 16.7.
So, using just this one measurement, stocks are about as expensive today as they were 50 years ago. If the next 50 years show returns in the same ballpark as the past 50 -- and they are working off roughly the same valuation starting point -- then investors will do acceptably if they're expecting returns in the area of 5.5% over that time period.
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/26/jack-bogle-theres-no-stock-pickers-market.html
Amid earnings season Bogle warns that the market may see five percent investment return, well below the norms over the next decade, but "it's better than nothing and certainly no reason to get out of the market," he said.
Saturday, April 23, 2016
TRANSSEXUALS, RESTROOMS, AND LOCKER ROOMS
As I live in North Carolina, the topic of bathroom and locker room use by transsexuals is current and keeps coming up on TV because of a law called HB2.* Mississippi too has passed a bathroom and locker room law.
Estimates of what percentage of Americans are transsexuals range widely from 0.1% (1 in a thousand) to 0.5% (1 in 200). It seems possibly that you may not even encounter a transsexual in your lifetime.
In the North Carolina law, transsexuals are to use the bathroom and locker room of their birth gender. Well I think that as to bathrooms you probably wouldn't know the person going into the stall was for the women's restroom was a male unless he/she was wearing a beard or maybe if you struck up a conversation with them. Ditto for a women transsexual going into the men's restroom.
Locker rooms are something else, of course, except for those transsexuals who have had a complete sex change operation,** whether it is from male to female or female to male as they both would have the same, um, equipment or lack thereof. That is the man actually is a woman who has had a complete hysterectomy and a women actually looks like a man complete with a penis.*** Apparently they can even have sex. I suspect that you wouldn't even know, at least from a casual look. These people certainly belong in their new sex restroom and locker rooms. Uterine transplantation is even in experimental phases. Apparently there are some health insurance plans that cover such operations.
Another thing is that in most places, women now wear trousers and many sport a mannish haircut. A lot of such women could maybe "pass" in the male restroom without a sex change operation. I think that male transsexuals who still have their, um, equipment steer clear of women's locker rooms. There is no problem with their wearing trousers and sport a mannish haircut and still identify themselves as a woman.
With this post, my interest in the topic is finished.
* http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article68401147.html
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_reassignment_surgery
*** https://www.quora.com/Will-complete-sex-changes-including-all-internal-organs-and-full-fertility-ever-be-possible
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=A0LEVvfYKxxX5D4A8D4nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByaWg0YW05BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM4BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--?qid=20100110033224AAZWDdI&p=complete%20sex%20change
Estimates of what percentage of Americans are transsexuals range widely from 0.1% (1 in a thousand) to 0.5% (1 in 200). It seems possibly that you may not even encounter a transsexual in your lifetime.
In the North Carolina law, transsexuals are to use the bathroom and locker room of their birth gender. Well I think that as to bathrooms you probably wouldn't know the person going into the stall was for the women's restroom was a male unless he/she was wearing a beard or maybe if you struck up a conversation with them. Ditto for a women transsexual going into the men's restroom.
Locker rooms are something else, of course, except for those transsexuals who have had a complete sex change operation,** whether it is from male to female or female to male as they both would have the same, um, equipment or lack thereof. That is the man actually is a woman who has had a complete hysterectomy and a women actually looks like a man complete with a penis.*** Apparently they can even have sex. I suspect that you wouldn't even know, at least from a casual look. These people certainly belong in their new sex restroom and locker rooms. Uterine transplantation is even in experimental phases. Apparently there are some health insurance plans that cover such operations.
Another thing is that in most places, women now wear trousers and many sport a mannish haircut. A lot of such women could maybe "pass" in the male restroom without a sex change operation. I think that male transsexuals who still have their, um, equipment steer clear of women's locker rooms. There is no problem with their wearing trousers and sport a mannish haircut and still identify themselves as a woman.
With this post, my interest in the topic is finished.
* http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article68401147.html
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sex_reassignment_surgery
*** https://www.quora.com/Will-complete-sex-changes-including-all-internal-organs-and-full-fertility-ever-be-possible
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=A0LEVvfYKxxX5D4A8D4nnIlQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByaWg0YW05BGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM4BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--?qid=20100110033224AAZWDdI&p=complete%20sex%20change
Thursday, April 21, 2016
UNEMPLOYMENT FILINGS LOWEST SINCE 1973 - II
Well, jobless claims continue to decrease with the latest week estimated to be below 250,000. * Although jobs seem to be plentiful, apparently the wages workers are getting leave them mad-as-heck.**
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, hitting its lowest level since 1973, suggesting the labor market continued to gain momentum despite weak economic growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000 for the week ended April 16, the lowest reading since November 1973, the Labor Department said on Thursday.*
.......................................................................
Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 59 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.*
.......................................................................
The economy has been constrained by a strong dollar and weak global demand, which have undermined exports. Lower oil prices are also a drag, as they have eroded the profits of energy firms and prompted them to slash spending on capital projects.*
.......................................................................
The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims decreased 10,750 to 2.17 million, also the lowest reading since November 2000.*
I guess I won't give a weekly blow by blow of the jobs picture, but will tune in now and then.
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/us-weekly-jobless-claims-april-16-2016.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/unemployment-filings-lowest-since-1973.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/job-winners-and-losers.html
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, hitting its lowest level since 1973, suggesting the labor market continued to gain momentum despite weak economic growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 247,000 for the week ended April 16, the lowest reading since November 1973, the Labor Department said on Thursday.*
.......................................................................
Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 59 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.*
.......................................................................
The economy has been constrained by a strong dollar and weak global demand, which have undermined exports. Lower oil prices are also a drag, as they have eroded the profits of energy firms and prompted them to slash spending on capital projects.*
.......................................................................
The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims decreased 10,750 to 2.17 million, also the lowest reading since November 2000.*
I guess I won't give a weekly blow by blow of the jobs picture, but will tune in now and then.
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/21/us-weekly-jobless-claims-april-16-2016.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/unemployment-filings-lowest-since-1973.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/job-winners-and-losers.html
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
ITEMS WITH THE MOST PAGE VIEWS AND MY FAVORITES - V
An eclectic blog (November, 2009, through December, 2015) with sections on Biography, Commentary (General, Economics and Investing), Fiction, Health Care, Oil and Gas, Politics, Photographs, and Poetry (Children's Poems, General, Health, and Space Poems) and (new) Poems By Others: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/reunite-gondwanaland-2009-june-2011.html As of the end of 2015, the blog contains 540 items with 120 published in 2015, a few greater than last year's 111.
The Reunite Gondwanaland and Table Of Contents has the most page views with 430. Close behind in the new Poems By Others Section, Ogden Nash's poem Fossils with 428 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/fossils-by-ogden-nash-poem.html] as the blog bears down on 37,000 page views.
Of my own posts, there is the first 300 page viewer from 2014, The Break Even Price of Fracking Oil [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/break-even-price-of-fracking-oil.html] with 300 page views.
Four other items have at least 200 page views: You Are So Lucky (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-are-so-lucky.html] with 230 (Which deals with my first three days in Japan in 1965); The Tea Cup Seimograph [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-tea-cup-seismograph-biographical.html] with 215 (It was no doubt popular because of the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011.); Muammar Qaddafi And Me (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/12/muammar-qaddafi-and-me-biographical.html] with 212 (No doubt popular because of the overthrow of the Libyan dictator Qaddafi); and My Maternal Grandmother (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/10/my-maternal-grandmother-biographical.html] with 209 page views;
More than 10 posts have at least 100 page views. The highest of these is Trump Or Cruz? [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/trump-or-cruz.html] with 177 page views; closely followed by Working Underground: My Rational Self and My Emotional Self with 170 page views [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/working-underground-my-rational-self.html]. Two other posts from 2015 that topped 100 page views are:Who Buys Isis Oil with 140 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/11/who-buys-isis-oil.html]; and 13 Things That Doen't Make Sense (Book Review) - Part I [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/06/13-things-that-dont-make-sense-book.html] with 101.
Each piece I have written is like a child and I love them all, but it is common that some children are loved more than others. My personal favorites are Effectiveness Of Taxes [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html] with fewer than 100 page views and Basics of Bureaucracy [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html] with 114. In the former, I point out why decreasing taxes on individuals is an inefficient way to stimulate the economy. I liked this so much that I refer to it in three other pieces. Alas the reading public did not agree as to its great value. In the latter that was written many years ago, I give some real rules of dealing with bureaucrats in a humorous fashion.
The Reunite Gondwanaland and Table Of Contents has the most page views with 430. Close behind in the new Poems By Others Section, Ogden Nash's poem Fossils with 428 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/fossils-by-ogden-nash-poem.html] as the blog bears down on 37,000 page views.
Of my own posts, there is the first 300 page viewer from 2014, The Break Even Price of Fracking Oil [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/10/break-even-price-of-fracking-oil.html] with 300 page views.
Four other items have at least 200 page views: You Are So Lucky (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/11/you-are-so-lucky.html] with 230 (Which deals with my first three days in Japan in 1965); The Tea Cup Seimograph [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-tea-cup-seismograph-biographical.html] with 215 (It was no doubt popular because of the Great Japanese Earthquake of 2011.); Muammar Qaddafi And Me (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/12/muammar-qaddafi-and-me-biographical.html] with 212 (No doubt popular because of the overthrow of the Libyan dictator Qaddafi); and My Maternal Grandmother (Biographical) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/10/my-maternal-grandmother-biographical.html] with 209 page views;
More than 10 posts have at least 100 page views. The highest of these is Trump Or Cruz? [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/trump-or-cruz.html] with 177 page views; closely followed by Working Underground: My Rational Self and My Emotional Self with 170 page views [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/01/working-underground-my-rational-self.html]. Two other posts from 2015 that topped 100 page views are:Who Buys Isis Oil with 140 [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/11/who-buys-isis-oil.html]; and 13 Things That Doen't Make Sense (Book Review) - Part I [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/06/13-things-that-dont-make-sense-book.html] with 101.
Each piece I have written is like a child and I love them all, but it is common that some children are loved more than others. My personal favorites are Effectiveness Of Taxes [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html] with fewer than 100 page views and Basics of Bureaucracy [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/basics-of-bureaucracy.html] with 114. In the former, I point out why decreasing taxes on individuals is an inefficient way to stimulate the economy. I liked this so much that I refer to it in three other pieces. Alas the reading public did not agree as to its great value. In the latter that was written many years ago, I give some real rules of dealing with bureaucrats in a humorous fashion.
Let me give two Honorable Mentions. I wouldn't say this is a favorite
of mine, but it can be important to some, i.e. Preferred Stock Investing
with 131 hits
[http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/11/preferred-stock-investing.html].
I have invested for about 60 years, but never got involved in
preferred stocks until the last decade. I would also like to mention
one poem Upon the Second Anniversary Of Apollo 11, the first landing on
the Moon
[http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/01/upon-second-anniversary-of-apollo-11.html].
Normally a couplet or more just pops into my mind and I construct a
poem around it. The second anniversary of Apollo Eleven, however, was
little noticed which I thought was terrible so this was the first time I
sat down to compose a poem from scratch.
Also on poems, my favorite couplet that I have ever written is in So How About An Asteroid (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2011/07/so-how-about-asteroid-poem.html], with 80 page views: Who could possibly be annoyed/ About the study of an asteroid. My favorite stanza is from On Age 82 (Poem) [http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/09/on-age-82-poem.html] with 133:
I do not text
And do not tweet
I'm 82 years old
Feeling kind of beat.
Tuesday, April 19, 2016
CRUZ AGAINST DILDOS - REALLY
The degree that Republicans like to control what goes on in our bedrooms seems to know no bounds and even would be sort of funny if they weren't so serious. The late Supreme Court Justice Scalia, for example, bemoaned the disappearance of laws that made masturbation illegal. * Sometime candidate for President and former Senator Rick Santorum bemoaned the repeal of a Connecticut law that barred married people from using contraceptives in their bedrooms.* Now Senator and Presidential candidate Ted Cruz supported a bill banning the use of dildos.** (Incidentally, the reference works if you can highlight it and copy it into the address bar.) He claimed it was like hiring a prostitute. Fortunately his case was thrown out by a Federal appeals court.
I probably could find more examples if I tried, but these are enough. We actually have and had such people in the highest levels of our government.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/12/in-end-liberalism-wins.html
** http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/13/1514818/-Call-of-the-Dildos-The-Ted-Cruz-Story?detail=email&link_id=2&can_id=af3794f2758d0c72ac0763afb2350d28&source=email-the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump&email_referrer=the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump&email_subject=the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump
I probably could find more examples if I tried, but these are enough. We actually have and had such people in the highest levels of our government.
* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/12/in-end-liberalism-wins.html
** http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/13/1514818/-Call-of-the-Dildos-The-Ted-Cruz-Story?detail=email&link_id=2&can_id=af3794f2758d0c72ac0763afb2350d28&source=email-the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump&email_referrer=the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump&email_subject=the-first-lady-of-crazy-conservatives-is-facing-a-hostile-takeover-after-endorsing-trump
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