Sunday, May 6, 2018

EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS WITH EMPHASIS ON RETAIL, APRIL 2018

The preliminary numbers are in on employment for April.  Please note that the current April numbers can easily change by 40,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in April, an 18-year low, even as nonfarm payrolls rose by just 164,000, according to a report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The closely watched average hourly earnings number rose by 4 cents, equating to a 2.6 percent annualized gain...The average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours.*

A more encompassing measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons fell to 7.8 percent, the lowest since July 2001. Unemployment for blacks fell to a fresh record-low of 6.6 percent, down 0.3 percent.*


Click on figure to enlarge.


Click on figure to enlarge.

The professional and business services industry added 54,000 jobs in April, leading the categories. This industry includes jobs such as lawyers, accountants, consultants, architects and engineers.
Education and health services was also a bright spot in the report, gaining 31,000 jobs for the month.
"Most of the gain [in manufacturing] was in the durable goods component, with machinery adding 8,000 jobs and employment in fabricated metal products continuing to trend up (+4,000)," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.

In contrast, government employment figures decrease.  Government spending has been the second largest drag on GDP after capital spending by industry.

Job opening set a new record of 6.6 million in March according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday. (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/08/job-openings-hit-new-record-high-of-6-point-6-million.html)
Openings jumped in professional and business services, which added 112,000 positions, as well as construction, with 68,000 and transportation, warehousing and utilities, which reported 37,000 new positions.
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Quits, an important indicator for whether workers feel comfortable leaving old jobs for new ones, rose to 3.34 million, up 136,000 from the February level. Gains were spread across geographic regions, with the South reporting 1.41 million.

RETAIL
Here are some brief excerpts from the shop Talk meeting on advances in retailing.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) 
AI is now recognized as a reliable, mainstream tool through every stage of the retail business — marketing, manufacturing, merchandising, CRM, shipping, logistics and more — allowing companies to make sense of the enormous volumes of data their businesses generate and finding connections and insights that are functionally impossible from humans. Impressively, scores of AI-fueled products are already available as custom or off-the-shelf, allowing retailers of nearly any size to compete without requiring in-house engineers and data scientists.

Voice  As a component of contextual commerce, voice is especially attractive for its potential to eliminate a host of friction points in the search and pay processes. Because voice interaction is essentially ubiquitous across all of the most popular consumer devices today, adding transactions is a no-brainer for consumers and retailers alike.

Visual There were a number of demonstrations showing how powerful visual search is becoming; Matthew Zeiler, CEO of AI company Clarifai, showed how users could zoom in on a desired item in a photo and instantly receive images of similar products, shopping links included.

Brick And Mortar  Not all Shoptalk trends were strict technology plays. Among the recurring keynote themes from the retail sages was the consumer’s hunger for physical, real world experiences. The wisdom of this sentiment found expression in the growing trend of digital native vertical retailers (DNVRs) who have invested in brick-and-mortar showrooms — and have discovered major boosts to their bottom lines as a result. For example, Indochino, originally a web-only merchant, began adding physical showrooms in 2015 (and plans to add 4 more this spring).Across speakers and segments the message was clear: Give consumers a reason to visit your store beyond price, and they’ll come. 
I have underlined the last phrase because I think it is so important.  I would much rather visit a department store where I could select things and try them on without having to ship back those that don't fit.  the idea about showrooms is interesting.  My problem with department stores is that they do not have motorized carts.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/non-farm-payrolls-april-2018.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/advertorial/the-top-5-lessons-for-retailers-from-shoptalk-2018/


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