Tuesday, May 29, 2018

THE SKID (Poem)


Starting downhill, driving in slush.
No time to be in such a rush.
To be safe shifted down to third.
Car broke loose; it was absurd.

As the car shot fast across the road,
“Will that steel guard rail hold?”
I thought, “Turn, turn into the skid!”
I shouted and did as bid.

Although it would be nice to think
That skill saved us from the brink.
The lord who put us to the test
Brought the car safely to rest.

1981

CAN PRESIDENT TRUMP CANCEL THE NOVEMBER ELECTION?

When President Trump DEMANDED an investigation of the FBI asset who talked to three Trump members during his election campaign, I worried whether Trump could cancel the November elections if he fears a "blue wave" of Democrats getting elected.  This thought occurred to me also because of the President of the Senate postponing the selection of a member of the Supreme Court for a year in the hopes that Republicans would still have a majority so as to select a Supreme Court member.

It turns out that this matter has been under consideration, not because of a "blue wave,"  but because of the fear of a major terrorist attack.  Thus the President would have to dream up some sort of security attack.  It appears, however, that the elections could not be postponed indefinitely but that the House elections MUST occur during 2008 (even number year) according to the constitution.   Also in the constitution, Senators are to serve for 6 yrs so about a third of the Senators must face election in 2008 or their terms would extend beyond 6 yrs.

The following are quotes from a CRS Report For Congress report titled Executive Branch Power To Postpone Elections.

As for the President affecting the timing of an election, I found this:
 While the Executive Branch has significant delegated authority regarding some aspects of election law, this authority does not currently extend to setting or changing the times of elections*.

But Congress can get into the act:
Under a variety of possible scenarios that could arise as a result of a terrorist attack before or during an election, either the Congress or the states might pass legislation which would affect the timing of these elections. The suggestion has been made, however, that the Executive Branch might have some role in determining whether an election was to occur or whether it could be cancelled. While the Executive Branch does not currently have this power, it appears that Congress may be able to delegate this power to the Executive Branch. *
Though I can imagine the House passing such a measure, my hope is that there would be at least a couple of Senators who would stand up for America and prevent the U.S. from becoming a subject of authoritarian power.

What about the Constitution?
Article I, §4, cl. 1 The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature therof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing  [choosing] Senators.*

Article II, §1, cl. 4 The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the [Presidential] Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States. The text of the Constitution does not appear to contain a constitutional role for the Executive Branch in such decisions.*

House And Senate Election:
Article I, §4, cl. 1 The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature therof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators. Article II, §1, cl. 4 The Congress may determine the Time of chusing the [Presidential] Electors, and the Day on which they shall give their votes; which Day shall be the same throughout the United States. The text of the Constitution does not appear to contain a constitutional role for the Executive Branch in such decisions.
........................................................
It would appear that, under Article I, §4, cl. 1, Congress would have broad authority to postpone elections so as to account for emergency situations. The Supreme Court and lower courts have interpreted the language of Article I, § 4, cl. 1 to mean that Congress has extensive power to regulate most elements of a congressional election. For instance, the Supreme Court has noted that the right to
vote for Members of Congress is derived from the Constitution and that Congress therefore may legislate broadly under this provision to protect the integrity of this right.4 The Court has stated that the authority to regulate the “times, places and manner” of federal elections:.
.............................................................
Although the Congress has set the election date applicable to the 2004** election by statute, it would still appear to be within Congress’s power to change it. Thus, it would appear that Congress would have the power, by statute, to postpone the upcoming House and Senate elections.

I am somewhat placated by the quotations above although I expect the matter could be referred to the Supreme Court to delay matters.  Surely the Supreme Court would stand up for democracy, wouldn't it?  After the Supreme Court decided the 2000 Presidential election, I'm not so sure.

* https://fas.org/sgp/crs/RL32471.pdf
**  The article appeared in July of 2004.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

PRESIDENT TRUMP AND SUPREME LEADER KIM JONG-UN

No surprise to me is that the meeting between President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un has formally been called off by Trump.  It never seemed as if it would have a good ending.  I have to wonder if either Trump or Kim ever really considered to have such a meeting?

At any rate, I feel it is all for the best.  I thought that Trump's demand for  North Korea to undergo complete denuclearization was a negotiating starting point.  If not, there is no point for a meeting as Kim would be crazy to give up all their nuclear weapons.  Why not just commit suicide and get it over with?

I thought that a freeze of North Korea's nuclear program in place might be a possibility.  Oh well.  There was talk that first the U.S. had to get out of the Iran deal or Kim would demand such a "mild" agreement.*  I suspect that the real reason that Trump got out of the Iran deal was that his boss (Netanyahu) ordered him to do so, just like Netanyahu ordered Trump to move the U.S. embassy to Jeruselum.

At least we got the release of three American hostages out of it.  And I guess we could count the destruction of the nuclear test site as an advance as well although there were speculations that the site was already destroyed.

For my earlier comment about a meeting "Two Sociopaths To Meet," see: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/04/two-sociopaths-to-meet.html

There’s some truth in this, but it misses a more basic point. Mr. Trump campaigned against the Iran deal not in principle, but because he saw its terms as bad for the U.S. Even if you disagree, taking his criticism seriously shows why the high-stakes negotiations with North Korea all but required Mr. Trump to dump the Iran deal. If he had kept it in place notwithstanding his power to withdraw, Mr. Kim could seize on its provisions as the starting point for the coming negotiations. Why would Mr. Kim accept a worse deal for North Korea than what Iran had obtained? Leaving one bad deal still active would have established the precedent for another bad deal. ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/before-meeting-kim-trump-had-to-repudiate-the-iran-deal-1527029167)




Wednesday, May 23, 2018

IN THE END LIBERALISM WINS (Republished from December 31, 2009)

[Last March I republished a piece called Snake Bit  because the URL didn't work.(https://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/03/snake-bit_8.html)  This reprint was more popular than the original so I thought it might be fun to look at a few other posts.  On December 31, 2009, at the end of my first  (partial) year of publishing this blog, I published a piece called In The End, Liberalism Wins so here it is and I warn you that it is rather long, however, once you start it may grab your attention.  Right now, liberalism is under attack and America is taking some steps backward, but, with any luck, it will make a comeback, exactly when is not known.]

IN THE END, LIBERALISM WINS

(August 16, 2003) Lots of people (well, two) have wondered why I'm not bombarding them with e-mails anymore. So here 'tis. At least in this country, in the end, liberalism wins, though it certainly takes awhile. The reason I take pen to paper (or more accurately fingers to keyboard) regards Rick Santorum, a Senator [now former] from Pennsylvania. You remember him, he is the one who became famous for intemperate comments about all laws regarding morality were off because of a Supreme Court decision that Gays have a right to privacy in their own homes and which struck down a Texas law. Less noticed in his speech was that he said this followed from an earlier Connecticut law, also struck down by the Supreme Court, in which it was against the law for married people to use contraceptives!

Well, now Santorum leads a charge accusing the Democrats of playing an anti-Catholic card to prevent a couple judges, who happen to be Roman Catholic, from promotions to be judges on higher courts (I suspect that once he is away from cameras and reporters, he laughs his head off.). Lost in all this is that President Kennedy was a Roman Catholic, and also, as it happens, a Democrat to boot. If you are old enough, you may recall that the Republicans opposed him on the grounds that he would be taking orders from the Pope, a charge that Kennedy vehemently opposed. Well, time moves on, and now we have Republicans wanting to appoint Roman Catholic judges to high court positions (even if they won't nominate one for President). If the Democrats have charged that they would be taking orders from the Pope, I haven't heard it. Boys and girls, this is a real advance. You also may recall that one knock on Adlai Stevenson, when he ran for President, was that he was divorced. By the time Republican Ronald Reagan, who also was a divorcee, ran for President, it was a non-issue. As to pot (Marihuana), it was a big issue when Clinton was running for president, but George "Dubya" Bush got let off by simply saying he had done some things when he was younger that he wasn't proud of. Whether I agree or disagree with what these people are doing or saying, liberalism is winning.

We now have in a Republican administration, a Black Secretary of State and a Black woman, of all things, as the Presidential security advisor. I mention the woman partly because it was just a few Republican administrations ago that a prominent official, male, of course, said that women don't understand things like throw weights (for rockets). I can hardly believe my eyes and ears. There are Republicans who grouse about such appointments, to be sure, and can hardly wait to get Secretary Powell out of there, but it looks like he will stay a whole term. For good measure, I believe we have an Asian-American woman as Secretary of Labor and an Asian-American man as Secretary of HUD. We also have a Republican Governor, Jeb Bush, married to a Hispanic American and former Senator Gramm married to an Asian woman. Ditto for a ''conservative" columnist (George Will, in case you can't guess).

Well, I grew up in a pretty conservative Republican neighborhood, and I can tell you people would have been shocked if I had come home with a Black, Asian, or Hispanic girlfriend. I also might mention that had I come home with a Roman Catholic girlfriend, it would have created a strained situation with my parents who would have at least gotten a lot of sympathy from the neighbors. It used to be said by the more liberal members about any of these groups that "They are nice people, but I wouldn't want my child to marry one!" I'll bet many of you remember this phrase. Yes, liberalism is winning.

While I am at it, I might mention that some aspects of liberalism have been adopted by Republicans that probably shouldn't be. The neighborhood I grew up in was fiscally very conservative, not to the point that they wouldn't take out a loan to buy a house and maybe an automobile, but they thought Federal deficits were immoral. I recall one neighbor telling me in the late 1940s that these Federal deficits would destroy the economy though he admitted he didn't know exactly when. So what I have in mind here is the adoption by Republicans of the liberal notion that the bigger the Federal deficit the better. But then, after all, it was President Nixon who said that we are all Keynesians now (though Keynes actually said we should pay back deficits in economically good times).

I might add that then, as now, you heard about the evils of handing Federal deficits on to our children. Well, here I am one of the children paying off for the Federal deficits from our parent's age and handing on even bigger ones to the current children. Make no mistake, I believe this is a serious matter. The deficit for the current fiscal year is estimated to be $450 billion. That is just about the sum of all the discretionary spending in the Federal budget (All the departments such as Interior, HUD, Treasury, Energy, Health (excluding Social Security and Medicare which are not discretionary because they are supported by special taxes.), Education, Veterans Affairs, etc.). So you would have to wipe all these out to just balance the budget, and, incidentally, you would probably run up a deficit next fiscal year which is expected to be bigger than this year. There still are a few fiscally conservative Republicans, but they seem to get rolled.

Well, if the Democrats want to get into our wallets, the Republicans want to get into our bedrooms. Santorum isn't alone in feeling frustrated that the Supreme court won't let him (so far). Antonin Scalia, a Supreme Court justice, by the way, wrote that the verdict of privacy for Gays would destroy lots of state laws controlling morals, among which he mentioned masturbation (!). It would be kind of fun to see him take a lie detector test on whether he had disobeyed that law.

An update added November 8, 2008: We have just witnessed Sen. Barack Obama - a black man and a Democrat - being elected president of the United States on November 4, 2008, and the Republicans ran Sen. John McCain - Roman Catholic - against him. Walter "Fritz" Mondale selected Democrat Rep. Geraldine Ferraro of New York as his Vice-Presidential nominee in the 1984 election, the first woman nominated in that position. Ferraro was eventually followed by Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, who was selected by John McCain as his running mate in 2008. Although neither candidate became vice-president, it is now all right for women to be selected as presidential running mates. William Clinton had Madeleine Albright as the first woman Secretary of State. In the first term of George "Dubya" Bush, Gen. Colin Powell was the first Black Secretary of State who was followed by Condoleezza Rice -a Black woman. In the end, liberalism still wins in these United States.

An update added October 4, 2009: Now with Sonia Sotomayor, six of the nine Supreme Court justices are Roman Catholics, two are Jewish, and one is Protestant.

An update added December 31, 2009: There is lots more that could have been said about liberalism winning in the long run. Women and minorities being able to enter any university and graduate schools of any university is certainly not a minor advance. Getting rid of legalized Jim Crow was certainly another major advance. The Voting Rights Act of 1964 was another major advance, in this case, put over the top by Republicans (This was before the solid south of the Democrats became the Southern Strategy of the Republicans.). Today you will even see women and minorities as CEOs of major corporations. And Hillary Clinton certainly put a whole lot of cracks in the glass ceiling of a woman running for president of these United States.


Original reference for this article is: https://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2009/12/in-end-liberalism-wins.html

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

WAR OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS ON APPOINTED REPUBLICANS

There are two main groups of Republicans attacking appointed Republicans, both in the House of Representatives.  One is headed by Rep. Devin Nunes (Chr. Permanent Select Committee on House Intelligence) where Republican members of the Committee (13) tend to follow his lead, and the other is called the Freedom Caucus headed by Rep. Mark Meadows with more than 30 members.

I find it curious that elected Republicans are going after appointed Republicans so fiercely.  Consider appointed Republicans Jeff Sessions, Rob Rosenstein, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, and Robert Muller, among others such as the four FISA judges,* are constantly under attack, particularly by the President but also by two groups of the House of Representatives.

 I think one of the smartest things Sessions did was recuse himself from what happened during the election as he is attacked mainly by the President.  James Comey shared his notes with three other top people in the FBI.  Andrew McCabe was actually fired two days before he was to retire on his 50th birthday.  James Rybicki (Comey's chief of Staff) reportedly voluntarily resigned.  FBI General Counsel James Baker was first reassigned and subsequently resigned.  

The latest Republican to come under attack by elected Republicans (NEWSER) – The FBI informant President Trump accuses of "infiltrating" his 2016 campaign was Stefan Halper, an American professor who taught at the University of Cambridge from 2001 to 2015, according to multiple reports—and this is far from his first rodeo. The 73-year-old served in the Nixon, Ford, and Reagan administrations and was accused of "political spying" on Jimmy Carter's campaign in 1980, the Washington Post reports. He has had Defense Department contracts since 2012. Sources say Halper, described as a moderate Republican with longstanding ties to the intelligence community, met three Trump advisers for foreign policy discussions in 2016, the same year he became a secret FBI informant. The professor and the FBI have declined to comment. In other developments:**

* And it is not only appointed Republicans who can be attacked by elected Republicans but other Republican congressmen as well for instance John McCain.  I even saw a sign at a Trump rally saying that McCain is treasonous.
** http://www.newser.com/story/259582/justice-dept-white-house-reach-deal-on-fbi-informant.html?utm_source=part&utm_medium=uol&utm_campaign=rss_top




Sunday, May 20, 2018

BABY BUST

I haven't realized what a major issue the current Baby Bust issue has been having, but there are many references to it going back quite a way.

"The declining birth rates sweeping across America are going to have a profound [e]ffect on many businesses — some in the immediate term and others 5 to 10 years out," Jason Dorsey, president of the Center for Generational Kinetics, told CNBC via email. "The reason is that declining birth rates hit the obvious group of businesses first: diaper makers, toy makers, kids meals at restaurants, car seat manufacturers and the like."*
.........................................................
The U.S. has experienced birth-rate declines before. The longest period of continuous decline on record happened between 1958 and 1968, according to the CDC.


As the figure shows, the decline in birthrate has been going on for a long time.**  Even the Baby Boom did not approach the birthrates seen near the turn of the Twentieth Century.
(Click on figure to enlarge)

.... the decline in fertility has been far greater among minorities than among non-Hispanic whites. If we take age-specific birth rates from the peak-fertility year of 2007 and apply them to each age cohort in 2008-2016, the most recent complete data, we can create a counterfactual scenario of how many babies would have been born if age-adjusted fertility rates had not fallen after 2007. From 2008 to 2016, the deficit turns out to be between 4.1 and 4.6 million missing babies: basically, an entire year’s worth or more of childbearing vanished.***

* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/18/more-pain-for-companies-that-make-baby-products-as-us-births-hit-low.html
** https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/05/17/real-time-economics-the-baby-bust-standing-firm-on-china-u-s-manufacturing-productivity-gains-are-abysmal/?guid=BL-REB-38485&mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1&dsk=y
*** https://ifstudies.org/blog/baby-bust-fertility-is-declining-the-most-among-minority-women

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-20/the-consequences-of-the-u-s-baby-bust

Friday, May 18, 2018

NELLIJA VALIDA OLEKS STORY - II (DISAPPEARING TENANT)

(This is the second of some stories about a woman who was talented but could not get herself to write up her own stories.  She is now deceased, and I have decided to write up some of her stories in her memory.  Part I is at http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/04/nellija-valida-oleks-story-i.html)

Nellija Valida Oleks rented rooms in her 4-bedroom townhouse.  As it turned out, two men rented one bedroom.  One morning, one of the men was missing (neglecting to pay his rent, of course).  It turned out that he flew to England where he was arrested upon departing from the plane because he had stolen the passport of his roommate who was wanted by the police in England.  Sometimes there is some justice in life.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

TEN-YEAR TREASURY NOTES

The following figure* shows the value of the 10 yr Treasury as a function of time, starting with 1954


(Click on figure to enlarge)

The 10 yr Treasury reached its highest level (3.095%) since July 2011, edging out the end of December in 2013 (3.006%).

When you look at the long-term history of the 10 yr Treasury, however, the current value for the 10 yr Treasury looks low.  I feel that too much is being made of the current value of the 10 yr Treasury.  So far as I am concerned, 3.095% is even a low value for the 5 yr Treasury.  You really have to go back before May 1957 to find lower numbers.

This doesn't mean there won't be a panic about rising rates as major investors like to do these sort of things.

* https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

JOBS FOR EVERYONE

As of last March,  job openings equal the number of people looking for jobs - 6.6 million of each - according to the Labor Dept.*  It could well happen that there will be more job openings than job seekers soon.

The problem is two-fold.  First, there is a skills mismatch, that is that there are not enough people qualified for certain jobs.  As an example of skills problem, Warren Buffet has a home building company (Oakwood Homes) that is training people to become carpenters.**  Many Mexican carpenters went home during the Great Recess and haven't come back.  Home Depot is to donate $50 million to train construction workers.**

Then there is the mobility problem.  A lot of people feel they can't move to take a job for which they are qualified.  For one thing, the job available has to pay enough to warrant a move.  You can't really move to take a minimum-pay job or maybe even one paying $10/hr.

As the figure below shows, the small business optimism index is as good as it has ever been which is another reason for job growth being likely to continue.***



Pessimism by investors in March fell markedly since its February high.  Pessimism fell to its lowest level since the first week of 2018, at 21.3 percent a drop of 7.1 percentage points, according to this week's reading from the American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey.
For the year, stock-based ETFs have pulled in $82.7 billion while bond funds have seen $11.7 billion in inflows, according to FactSet.****

It looks like all systems are go, except maybe for wage gains.****.

* https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/05/08/the-u-s-now-has-a-record-6-6-million-job-openings/?utm_term=.54683ce19c04
** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/desperate-for-workers-a-colorado-homebuilder-starts-a-free-school.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/03/08/exclusive-home-depot-donate-50-m-train-construction-workers-address-severe-shortage/403659002/
*** https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/05/11/michigan-consumer-sentiment-may-preliminary-unchanged
**** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/investors-just-pumped-the-most-money-ever-into-stock-funds-for-a-single-week.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/30/opinion/republican-tax-cut-workers.html?

Saturday, May 12, 2018

GDP/CAPITA: U.S.STATES VS. THE WORLD'S COUNTRIES

One hears that if California were a country, it would have the 6th largest GDP in the World, but how does it stack up against other states per capita and the World's countries per capita? See figure below.*  As different figures and tables are considered, there appear to be inconsistencies which are due to different types of dollars being used and/or different years.

You see that on a per capita basis for 2016 in current dollars, the District of Columbia ($166,178) beats every state and, in fact, even the highest country, Luxemburg ($110,870).**  Note that the District Of Columbia beats out the #2 state, New York, by more than a factor of two ($75,360).

Perhaps it is not surprising that Washington, D.C., has the highest per capita GDP in the world because that is where the Federal government spends most of its money.  Just think of all the Social Security checks for just one example.  Remember GDP is a spending matric, not an income matric.  There are lots and lots of poor people in Washington, D.C.

 (Click on table to enlarge)
 (Click on table to enlarge)

Looking at a map of Europe on a GDP/Capita basis is instructive.**

 (Click on figure to enlarge)

Note that all the lowest GDP/Capita numbers are toward the south and south-east with few exceptions (Romania and Bulgaria).  All the countries with the highest per capita GDP are to the north-east with Ireland ($75,538) as #2 following Luxemburg ($106,373).  Dollars, in this case, are international dollars.

Why does Luxemburg have such a high per capita GDP?  Surprisingly it is home to the largest steel making company in the world (ArcelorMittal).  The largest part of the Luxemburg economy, however, is banking with 155 banks having offices there.***
In addition to financial services, Luxembourg is also one of the most important technology and ecommerce hubs in Europe. Because of the government's significant long-term support of the technology sector, Luxembourg has an enormous, ultra-high-speed communications infrastructure, as well as multiple data centers.***

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP_per_capita
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_in_Europe_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
*** http://www.harley.com/money-and-economics/understanding-gdp/12-luxembourg-the-country-with-the-highest-gdp-per-capita.html

Friday, May 11, 2018

“WORLD WAR II THROUGH THE EYES OF A CHILD”

(Andra Mellinger is the younger sister of Nellija who can be read at  http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2018/04/nellija-valida-oleks-story-i.html)

 “World War II Through the Eyes of a Child”
                                             by
                                   Andra Mellinger

Andra Karena Oleks grew up in a very well to do family in Riga, Latvia. Born In 1934, her father Kazimirs (1886 -1973?) was a career military man and moved up to the rank of General of the Latvian Army. Her mother, Kristine (1896 -1979) was a nurse. Andra had an older sister Nellija (1926 - 2017). During World War II, Latvia was first occupied by Soviet Russia and then by Nazi Germany.  Andra’s mother took her and her older sister and fled westward from Latvia.  Here, Andra recounts her memories of their journey.

Andra Age 4
The current hysteria regarding refugees from Syria triggered my memory of the time I was a refugee myself.  The time was 1944.  I was 10 years old when the WWII was greatly affecting life in Latvia.  It was one of the three Baltic states in Northeast Europe. Its eastern border is with Russia and Finland is directly north, across the Baltic Sea.

Being “in the road” I recall the first occupation by the Communist Russians in 1939 or ’40.  They were unkind strangers imposing their communist rules and the price one would pay for disregarding them. I lived in Latvia with my parents and one sister.  Around age 6, I slowly became aware that things were changing around me.  What I remember, till then, my life was wonderful.  We lived in an upscale apartment building, had many friends, and no complaints.  Due to the fact that my father was a somewhat important person in Latvia, we lived well.  He was a high-ranking General in the Latvian army.  He seldom lived with us and I took that for normal with all fathers.  Mine was not a good person, but I was unaware of that then.  Suddenly around 1940 he was at home more

Family Portate 1938
Kasamers Oleks, Father 2014
Kristine, Mother 1932
Actually I must have been about 7 when I became aware that certain changes in our living quarters were taking place.  First, suddenly our maid was no longer living with us, she wasn’t there to cook or clean and my mother had to go shop for whatever was needed, maybe for the first time in her life.  There were suddenly things we couldn’t do, like be outside at night after a set time.  Just new rules.  Why, I started to ask.  Well, we had new leaders, soldiers from Russia.  I knew what soldiers were, my father was in the Latvian army, when we had one.  I didn’t really know what soldiers did.  In those days around 1940,  there was no TV and kids told each other stories, probably like they do now only without the confirmation of TV programs.  As time went by, we all learned the do’s and don’t of a new regime.  First we learned that the communist regime did not tolerate Christmas celebrations and outlawed Christmas trees.  We smuggled one in, but couldn’t really light it.  We were taking the chance that no one would know of our tree, but somehow ‘they’ knew.  Through a “friend” we were notified that during the night we would be taken away and sent to Siberia.  So we fled to the outskirts of Riga to some distant relatives’ house.  Life was very strange because new rules could be produced as law, anytime that fit a situation.

We were homeowners on the outskirts of Riga. Turned out my father and uncle had a house built for us or whoever with 4 nice apartments.  We moved there and that was home till we left, fleeing as the war progressed. We lived in one, rented the other 3.  Well, we lost the house to the communist party.

I think, because I was a girl, I was rather unaware of what the WWII was and would yet become.  As days went by, all Latvians were forced by the new Communist officials, to share with those less fortunate.  Up till then we must all have been fortunate, but now – we were “gifted” with sharing our apartment with one Russian soldier.  One of our rooms was simply taken.  He was to be fed meals like our own, whatever he wanted – if we had it, he was entitled to it also.  We were very lucky he was a decent person and did not request anything outrageous.  That is, as far as I knew.  My sister was around 16 then.  No doubt my mother was worried.  Of course my father was not around.

In days and months to follow, the Russians became more and more pushy.  Finally, residents who supposedly posed a threat to the Russians, were rounded up in wagons (trucks, I think) during the night and simply shipped to Siberia or killed, whatever the “orders” were.  Nobody was safe anywhere.  We lived like that for a year or two. Life was hell.

Then, quite suddenly we were occupied by Nazi Germans.  I wish I could remember how that came to be.  I mean, was there a battle or some peaceful agreement?  I just don’t remember.  But suddenly (or maybe not so suddenly) we were under Nazi rule.  One morning the communists were gone but the Nazi Germans were parading the streets.

They were kind, then, and tolerable.  As far as I was concerned, all was okay and life, such as it was, moved along.  Food was harder and harder to buy because the Nazi Army had to be fed first and we would get whatever was left over.  Such things as milk, eggs, butter, meat were soon to disappear for the length of the war.  After all, the soldiers had to be fed.  Eventually also our peace was disrupted by air raids at night.  The adults discussed making a shelter across our yard.  In a corner a shelter was dug and fixed up so there was room for all resident of our 4 apartment house.  I always heard talk about shelters – that if there was a direct hit by a bomb, it was better to be killed right away than burned under rubble of a building on top of you.  You could be alive but unable to get out.

The Nazis lived up to their reputation too.  The Nazi treatment of residents of Jewish faith is well known.  Every day brought a new horror.  From our kitchen window we had a clear sight of a synagogue, a white, shiny building, round in shape.  It reflected the morning sun brightly every day till the morning it was black.  Being so young, I was unaware of some of the Nazi actions.  When I was told, the night before while people worshiped, the Nazis locked the door and set fire to it.

Comparing the evil deeds of various enemies made no one a winner.  But a choice had to be made.  The war moved along and this time the communists were coming back making the Germans retreat.  Oops, we were to become unwilling Communists.

The threat of communists taking over again was unbearable.  We considered leaving all we had and maybe hang on to our lives.  Of course, as I mentioned previously, the horror of the Nazis was lessened for us only because we were not of Jewish Faith.  Nazis killed and tortured them at every opportunity.  But we were safe in that regard. The choice was made.  We would flee our home, our country, do whatever we had to do to survive under Nazi rules.  It is a good idea to realize that in a war you often have to know how to play your part.  You basically do whatever it takes to survive.  Now that we had chosen to flee our home in Latvia and move along with the retreating Germans, we would do whatever it took to survive.  It was mid-September1944 when my mother took me by the hand and looked at my older sister saying – we will survive by hook or crook, no probably not that, in Latvian.  We packed suitcases of clothing and whatever else we could carry. The three of us – my mother, my 17-year-old sister, and me –joined the crowd on street, everyone heading to the train station.

My father was not ever much of a participant in family dealings.  And now he chose to stay guarding our house a few more days to see how things settle down and then follow us, but we never saw him again.  By then the roads were cut off and we never saw each other again.

We boarded a train which was to take us west, southwest actually through Lithuania, into Poland at that time.  I assume that we didn’t have a particular destination in mind.  The war front kept moving in our direction. The air - raids continued as they came when we were still at home.  But there was no way to hide, nothing to do but sit inside the train and hope the next bomb doesn’t hit us.

The train moved at night but sat still during the day.  Supposedly, as I remember, it could or would be bombed during the day because it would be so easy to see it.  We were generally bombed by the Russians and the English.  As is well known, together they flattened a large part of Europe.  At night we traveled without any lights.  I was constantly scared. While we were stopped at a station during the day, many families were assigned to join a local family in their home to be fed and cleaned up and maybe to sleep a few hours.  Such are the needs of refugees who are just passing through.  Realistically, does anyone actually look forward to having strangers in their house, to be fed and shown a friendly face, plus provide a caring attitude.  All of us, into thousands at a time, moved from one city or town to the next, going west. I don’t remember what we thought would be the end of our road.  I just thought we didn’t want the Communists to catch up to us.

We spent a couple of months in two of Poland’s cities and it was an enjoyable time.  We had a distant relative in a town of Posen, in Poland.  We stopped to visit her for a few weeks. Then we had to run again, ever farther west.  I do wish I knew what mother’s goal was, but mainly to outrun the approaching communists.  Along the way, on the train, some organization helping refugees was handing out containers of oatmeal for kids 10 and younger.  Sometimes I got some, other times I was considered too old.

Mostly my mother and sister had to work in local factories which made clothes for the German soldiers.  Since they worked 12-hour shifts, I was alone and in charge of trying to buy some food in those stores that had some to sell.  We often went hungry.  We were staying with a family in Saalfeld, a small city in Southwest Germany, when the war was ending.  Every night we spent in the basement of the building and the bombs fell close and far and I shook with fear every time the whistle of falling bombs could be heard.  Being in western Germany, we were bombed by
Americans and English.  Life can be interesting even for a refugee.

Eating was a now and then thing.  There were no restaurants as they had nothing to cook.  All food and other things went to the soldiers.  There was a strong feeling to keep the soldiers happy.  I don’t remember a department store existing but they probably were there, just rather useless.  Grocery stores would have some bread in the morning, sometimes margarine or milk.  Cheese was available.  Since my mother and sister had to be at a job 6 am to 6 pm, any food shopping was left to me.  Often spent a couple hours standing in line only to get pushed out of line when I got to the cash register.  I was of average size, but very thin.  I was sometimes looked upon as being ill with something.  There was no medication, no food, no supplies of any sort.  Life was very hard, but equally so for everyone.  Except for the people of Jewish Faith.  They had to wear a six-pointed yellow star on their clothing and walking had to be done in the street, not sidewalk.

All Germans had a lapel pin of the swastika so they could walk on the sidewalk and get first in line even if they arrived last.  You bet I wore a swastika!  You did what you had to to survive.  The streets were full of German soldiers as well as the dreaded SS.  They had all the rights to do what they wanted to any refugees or residents and no one questioned their right to do that as well as killing anyone – they must have had to do that.  Needless to say we shook in our boots till they passed.  You just never knew what could happen.  We were in another Polish city at the time 1945 arrived.  Prior to that, on Christmas Eve, we snuggled under blankets for warmth when around 10 pm there was a knock on our door.  We lived in the janitors’ quarters, one room under stairs without a kitchen.  And happy as could be to find a place.  That Christmas Eve turned out to be one I have never forgotten.  My sister was 8 years older than I.  She went to the door and turned white as a sheet.  Mother followed.  There was a soldier in the door in an SS uniform.  As we had forgotten to breathe, it was a good thing the soldier spoke Frohe Weinachten, as he handed my sister a big plate with cookies, homemade candy and stuff.  What were we to think?  He then explained that his family lived on the third floor and they knew we had nothing.  To restart our hearts to beat again was almost painful.  The soldier left after inviting us to visit his family sometimes.

Goes to show you all bad guys aren’t bad, though most are.  This young man was drafted like all men were, how you felt about Hitler was only one way – you adored him!  No one dared show any other feelings.

As homeless refugees we were always trying not to look the part.  No one wants to share what they have with strangers.  They never could trust that we were decent people, yet some did understand the situation.  Of course the war had taught all a few lessons in extending your hand to someone who has no one to reach for.

Somehow between that Christmas in 1944 and March of 1945, we had settled with a German family who owned a clothing store, before the war.  Now it stood empty, but they had a 3 story house in the middle of a small city.  The war was clearly about to end as we sat in the basement with continued air raids night and day. Finally, sometime in 1945, our town saw truckloads of  American soldiers ride in as well as those who came in on tanks, signaling to us that the war was over, the Americans won. It sure was a welcome sight.

Strange to see tanks on ordinary streets, but we got used to that.  All was well until it was decided to give this town in the care of Russians.  At the end of the war, sometime in April, Germany was divided into the American zone, English zone, and Russian zone.

I don’t recall what plans my mother was making for our future, but it didn’t matter.  The Americans were giving that part of Germany to the Russians.  Oh no, we weren’t going to let that happen at that point.  An old truck was rented by several Latvian families together and we were moving further West and North, driving to find the English zone.  English because we knew something of the English, but the Americans we knew nothing about. After all, rumor had it that the Americans blew their noses in a piece of paper (kleenex) rather than a handkerchief.  And they chewed something called gum!  What could that be, gum?  And why?

We moved towards the region that was dealt to the English.  We planned to keep going till we reached the English zone.  My sister who was 18 then, spoke some English, a few words that would identify us if we were stopped for questioning.  As it turned out, along the way to reach the English zone, I got sick with high fever and we were forced to stop at a refugee camp near Kassel, till I got well enough to travel on.  So we found a refugee camp in Bettenhausen near Kassell, which was totally flattened by bombs.  A spooky feeling to walk through a city the size
of Kassel being nothing but rubble.

In the end, we stayed in that DP (displaced persons) camp for the next 3 years.

The “camp” was previously used as German military barracks.  They were 17 in number, I think, and were divided among various nationalities.  The buildings were numbered and quickly we learned which numbers housed Latvian refugees, or Polish, Hungarian, Turkish, Estonian, etc.  There were no luxuries, but for this little girl of 11, what else could one wish for?  We each were given a metal bed with a straw-like mattress, a couple army blankets and the warmth and security of being in a building that was safe. We got food from an American organization called UNRRA, later IRO.

And there were many children to befriend.  The housing was primitive, but again, we were safe.  Once a week food was rationed out if you went to the building where it was located.  Each person got a measured amount of food.  Children up to age 10 got a pint of milk once a week.  Since I had turned 11, I didn’t get any.  Bread too was dealt out as specified.  I honestly don’t know what all we got.  It wasn’t any kind of a snack, but food to eat.  Some of the food was rumored to be that what the soldiers got, rations.  I was never hungry then because I had friends and we had no worries.  As time went on the community of Latvians created a school for the younger bunch of kids.  Later a high school was created.  There were teachers with various abilities, who had left home like all else.  I was in 3rd grade, eleven of us.  We had a regular school schedule and for me life was wonderful.  I loved school and was one of the best students. In our English class we learned the American National Anthem – not understanding more than a few words.

Andra, DP, Camp 1948

With a friend, 7th grade graduation,in traditional Latvian attire,
DP camp 1949
About 3 years later we moved yet to another Latvian DP camp in Esslingen, near Stuttgart, Germany.  The parents of one of my classmates was in the restless group that wanted to move to a better camp. I never understood the need to go anywhere.  All my new friends were staying. Needless to say I was not very happy. However, one of my classmates was in our group of restless wandered and we formed a friendship for life.  Indeed we just met before Christmas as she was here at a Latvian gathering in San Jose.  We hadn’t seen each other since we were 15 or 16.  We are both widows now, our children grown.

There were several different DP camps all through parts of Germany.  We were always in the American zone and all the supplies we got were donated by American families who wanted to be in some way involved in helping the thousands of refugees who had lost everything and couldn’t go home.  Since we, the refugees, were well taken care of, we were no threat to the local German families.  It was a friendly place although we stayed with our friends at the camp, rather than mix with the neighborhood Germans.  We all lived for the day someone in the States would want to sponsor us to live in America.  Through the next year we all watched as some of our lucky friends were immigrating to America.  There were many tests to pass before we could be considered useful for the sponsors.  The agreement was that the sponsor pays our fee for the trip. Also, that we agree to work for room and board, no pay, for the sponsor for one year.  Tough conditions but apparently the working for no cash pay was not carved in stone.  We didn’t have that in our agreement.  I must mention that these sponsors were generally viewed as the saviors of  Displaced Persons, by bringing them to the United States and giving them a new chance at life, many sponsors were inhumane and worked the immigrants to death.  Good and bad exist everywhere.

Youth Camp (YWCA), Germany 1949
Confirmation, Los Angeles, 1950




Sunday, May 6, 2018

EMPLOYMENT ANALYSIS WITH EMPHASIS ON RETAIL, APRIL 2018

The preliminary numbers are in on employment for April.  Please note that the current April numbers can easily change by 40,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in April, an 18-year low, even as nonfarm payrolls rose by just 164,000, according to a report Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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The closely watched average hourly earnings number rose by 4 cents, equating to a 2.6 percent annualized gain...The average workweek was unchanged at 34.1 hours.*

A more encompassing measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons fell to 7.8 percent, the lowest since July 2001. Unemployment for blacks fell to a fresh record-low of 6.6 percent, down 0.3 percent.*


Click on figure to enlarge.


Click on figure to enlarge.

The professional and business services industry added 54,000 jobs in April, leading the categories. This industry includes jobs such as lawyers, accountants, consultants, architects and engineers.
Education and health services was also a bright spot in the report, gaining 31,000 jobs for the month.
"Most of the gain [in manufacturing] was in the durable goods component, with machinery adding 8,000 jobs and employment in fabricated metal products continuing to trend up (+4,000)," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.

In contrast, government employment figures decrease.  Government spending has been the second largest drag on GDP after capital spending by industry.

Job opening set a new record of 6.6 million in March according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey released Tuesday. (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/08/job-openings-hit-new-record-high-of-6-point-6-million.html)
Openings jumped in professional and business services, which added 112,000 positions, as well as construction, with 68,000 and transportation, warehousing and utilities, which reported 37,000 new positions.
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Quits, an important indicator for whether workers feel comfortable leaving old jobs for new ones, rose to 3.34 million, up 136,000 from the February level. Gains were spread across geographic regions, with the South reporting 1.41 million.

RETAIL
Here are some brief excerpts from the shop Talk meeting on advances in retailing.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) 
AI is now recognized as a reliable, mainstream tool through every stage of the retail business — marketing, manufacturing, merchandising, CRM, shipping, logistics and more — allowing companies to make sense of the enormous volumes of data their businesses generate and finding connections and insights that are functionally impossible from humans. Impressively, scores of AI-fueled products are already available as custom or off-the-shelf, allowing retailers of nearly any size to compete without requiring in-house engineers and data scientists.

Voice  As a component of contextual commerce, voice is especially attractive for its potential to eliminate a host of friction points in the search and pay processes. Because voice interaction is essentially ubiquitous across all of the most popular consumer devices today, adding transactions is a no-brainer for consumers and retailers alike.

Visual There were a number of demonstrations showing how powerful visual search is becoming; Matthew Zeiler, CEO of AI company Clarifai, showed how users could zoom in on a desired item in a photo and instantly receive images of similar products, shopping links included.

Brick And Mortar  Not all Shoptalk trends were strict technology plays. Among the recurring keynote themes from the retail sages was the consumer’s hunger for physical, real world experiences. The wisdom of this sentiment found expression in the growing trend of digital native vertical retailers (DNVRs) who have invested in brick-and-mortar showrooms — and have discovered major boosts to their bottom lines as a result. For example, Indochino, originally a web-only merchant, began adding physical showrooms in 2015 (and plans to add 4 more this spring).Across speakers and segments the message was clear: Give consumers a reason to visit your store beyond price, and they’ll come. 
I have underlined the last phrase because I think it is so important.  I would much rather visit a department store where I could select things and try them on without having to ship back those that don't fit.  the idea about showrooms is interesting.  My problem with department stores is that they do not have motorized carts.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/non-farm-payrolls-april-2018.html
** https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/advertorial/the-top-5-lessons-for-retailers-from-shoptalk-2018/


Wednesday, May 2, 2018

NETANYAHU STRANGE SPEECH ON IRAN NUCLEAR AMBITIONS

I don't know what the purpose of Netanyahu's lecture was.  It seems to me that, if anything, he strengthened the case for keeping the nuclear agreement with Iran as the reference notes ("Why Netanyahu's revelations should make Trump uphold the Iran nuclear deal")*

In strong and consistent statements, as if they had been developed for weeks, Pompeo expressed deep concern about how the Iran deal did nothing to deter Iran's aggression in the region, support for terrorism, or development of new missile systems.*

The nuclear agreement was to deter Iran from pursuing a nuclear bomb and had nothing to do with support for terrorism, or development of new missile systems.  These are separate issues.  Pompeo graduated first in his class at West Point.  Certainly, he is smart enough to know this.  Getting rid of the nuclear agreement just because it was something done by Obama threatens the security of Israel as well as the U.S.

Modern politics in the U.S. and Israel makes me want to scream!

* https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/01/why-netayahus-revelations-should-make-trump-uphold-the-iran-nuclear-deal.html