Sunday, December 31, 2017

DONALD TRUMP EXAMINED

(With more than 900 items, it is hard to find posts involving a particulars topic.  This post is the second in a focus group of posts, summarizing items on a particular topic. The first was on gun control: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/when-did-i-give-up-on-gun-control.html).

At the end of 2015, I wrote a post  called Donald Trump - Final Comments (I Hope).  I didn't obey that "hope" very well, and I find there are 38 posts on Donald Trump listed below in reverse order of date (most recent first).  There may be more and some in which an oblique reference is made to him, but I'm exhausted.  That December 2015 post.may be the most important of all.

Ten items have been picked out for emphasis with an asterisk (*) as they contain information about Donald Trump that is particularly important.  I have selected five posts with a double asterisk (**) that are especially important to understanding Donald Trump.

As a bonus, I've included at the bottom, two posts about Melania Trump.

.............................................................................
REFERENCES

A Wall You Can See Through
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/trump-flip-flopper-in-chief.html
December 20, 2017

Pure As The Driven snow
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/pure-as-driven-snow.html
November 29, 2017

The Wall: Dirty Little Secret
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-wall-dirty-little-secret.html
November 14, 2017

Presidential Decorum
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/presidential-decorum.html
October 24, 2017

Doing Something For The Fears and Concerns Of Trump's Base
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/doing-something-for-fears-and-concerns.html
September 24, 2017

** Trump's Humor
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/trumps-humor.html
September 18, 2017

Ratings And The Wall
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/ratings-and-wall.html
August 29, 2017

* Trump: Flip Flopper In Chief
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/trump-flip-flopper-in-chief.html
August 21, 2017

Putin's Lap Dog
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/putins-lap-dog.html
July 23, 2017

* Pugnacious Politics
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/pugnacious-politics.html
July 4, 2017

President Donald Trump
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/president-donald-trump.htmlj
June 20, 2017

* Cry Baby Trump No Surprise
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/05/crybaby-trump-no-surprise.html
May 15, 2017

** Howard Stern On Donald Trump
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/05/howard-stern-on-donald-trump.html
May 14, 2017

Trump's First 100 Days -  Legislation
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/04/trumps-first-100-days-legislation.html
April 23, 2017

Trump Vs. The Workling Man
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/04/trump-vs-working-man.html
April 20, 2017

Kellyanne Conway Advertises Ivanka Trump Clothing Line
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/kellyanne-conway-advertises-ivanka.html
February 11, 2017

Donald Trump And Russia
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/donald-trump-and-russia.html
January 17, 2017

Father-In-Law -- Son-In-Law
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/father-in-law-son-in-law.html
January 13, 2017

He Stole the Election Fair And Square
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/he-stole-election-fair-and-square.html
December 13, 2016

The Greatest Con Wins
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-greatest-con-wins.html
December 12, 2016

** Monetizing The Presidency
http://stopcontinentaMonetizing The Presidencyldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/monetizing-presidency_24.html
November 24, 2016

America Not Ready For A Woman President
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/america-not-ready-for-woman-president.html
November 9, 2016

** Scale Of Lying, The
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-scale-of-lying.html
October 18, 2016

Some Men Have It, Most Don't
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/some-men-have-it-most-dont.html
October 11, 2017

Trump Best Republican?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-best-republican.html
September 19, 2016

Trump Business Dealings
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-business-dealings.html
September 15, 2016

Trump And Putin
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-and-putin.html
September 11, 2016

Trump Best Republican?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-best-republican.html
September 19, 2016

Donald Trump's Biggest Con
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/donald-trumps-biggest-con.html
August 21, 2016

Capt. Humayun Khan, President Obama, Lies, And Schizophrenia
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/capt.html
August 6, 2016

It's The Supreme Court, Stupid
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/06/it-is-supreme-court-stupid.html
June 11, 2016

* Litigator In Chief - Donald Trump
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/06/litigator-in-chief-donald-trump.html
June 2, 2016

Donald Trump - Deal Maker
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/05/donald-trump-deal-maker.html
May 10, 2016

** Donald Trump - Final Comments (I Hope)
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/donald-trump-final-comments-i-hope.html
December 9, 2015

Trump Or Cruz?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/trump-or-cruz.html
December 4, 2015

* What Are Republicans Looking For?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/09/what-are-republicans-looking-for.html
September 7, 2015

How To Build "The Wall"
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/09/how-to-build-wall.html
September 2, 2015

All Republicans Are For ....
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/08/all-republicans-are-for.html
August 17, 2015
.................................................................

Melania Trump On Bullying
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/melania-trump-onbullying.html
October 24, 2017)

I'm Also Beginning To Feel Sorry For ....
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/im-also-beginning-to-feel-sorry-for.html
November 7, 2016

Friday, December 29, 2017

SANTA CLAUS RALLY - 2017

The Santa Claus Rally is said to occur the last 5 trading days of a year plus the first two trading days of the following year.  The Rally has occurred 76% of the time (34 of 45 years) with an average rise of 1.4%.*  The first 5 days of the Santa Claus Rally period were down, and it was going to take a couple of very good days to turn the Santa Claus Rally positive.**  Sure enough, the last two days were very good turning the indices positive, though below average:

The SandP500 closed last Friday at: 2683.34.   It closed today Friday, December 29, at 2673.61.

The DJIA ended last Friday at: 24754.06.  It closed today Friday, December 29, at: 24719.22.

The NASDAQ Composite ended last Friday at: 6995.96.  It closed today Friday, December 29, at. 6903.39

The Russell 2000 (small capitalization companies) ended last Friday at: 1542.93.  It closed today Friday, December 29, at 1535.51

* http://www.businessinsider.com/santa-claus-rally-history-2015-12
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/12/santa-claus-rally.html

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

GREATER FOOL THEORY

There is something called the Greater Fool Theory.  It really is a theory that  has been tested in investing.   The theory states that you will buy something at an inflated price because you think there is a greater fool who will pay even more.  An example often given is the Dutch Tulip Craze that collapsed in February of 1637.

Looking at what is happening to the near vertical rise in bitcoins suggest the Greater Fool Theory is operating.  The collapse may have started.  when it does it does, the collapse is usually swift.  Somebody is going to get hurt.

I do not participate in this bitcoin craze.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Saturday, December 23, 2017

BULLY PULPIT?

Sometime back I coined the phrase "BULLY IN THE CHINA SHOP" *  Since then, others have independently come up with the phrase, too.  This morning on Morning Joe, Richard Haass, or was it Jon Meacham?, coined the phrase BULLY IN THE PULPIT.  Wish I'd thought of that.

On Googling who said the phrase first, Edward Luce seems to be the first, using it as his title in his article "Donald Trump: The Bully In Americas Pulpit." (The Financial Times, Feb. 5, 2017).

* (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/bully-in-china-shop.html)

Friday, December 22, 2017

WE PASSED A BILL TO SEE WHAT IS IN IT

Earlier this month, I published a piece WE NEED TO PASS THE BILL TO FIND OUT WHAT'S IN IT (Dec. 1st).  The bill is now passed and President Trump has a chance to redeem himself and veto the bill, but I will be amazed if he does it though he has not signed it yet.  So now we will have the opportunity to find out what is in the 1,079 page bill!

Actually, the Republicans are relatively brief in writing this lengthy bill.  The Democrats on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (shortened to ACA) came in at 1990 pages.

Though this tax cut bill is said to be the biggest ever, Steve Rattner  says it is only the 7th largest.*




* http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/steve-rattner-breaks-down-gop-tax-bill-1122349123691

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

A WALL YOU CAN SEE THROUGH?

In today's conference to celebrate passage of the Republican tax cut bill, President Trump spoke of many things other than the tax cut.  One was that the agents on our southern border with Mexico would like a wall you can see through.  I thought a wall you can see through is called a ... fence?

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

AL FRANKEN: SECOND THOUGHTS

  I thought that Al Franken gave a classy goodbye speech from the Senate in response to sexual misconduct allegations.*  Then I read Peggy Noonan’s article in the WSJ where she used her considerable intellectual skills to trash the whole thing.**

   Noonan did grant that the groping of the sleeping woman, Leeann Tweeden, in a helmet and flack jacket might be simulated.  Clearly in the picture, Franken’s left hand was not close to touching her.  I thought it was kind of funny.  After all, groping a woman in a flack jacket would be like groping a wall.  But I guess this is the type of things that, if you have to explain it, you might as well not bother.

   Thirty-six women from Saturday Night Live signed a letter including the passage: “That is why we are moved to quickly and directly affirm that after years of working with him, .... not one of us ever experienced any inappropriate behavior; and mention our sincere appreciation that he treated us with the utmost respect and regard.”  Some female Senate staffers have made similar statements.***

   Franken immediately volunteered for an ethics committee investigation and profusely apologized to Ms. Tweeden, who accepted his apology.  Of the women who accused Franken of sexual harassment, I only recall one that he said was “categorically not true.”  About some others, he said he remembered events differently.  One woman, who wanted her picture taken with him, accused him of pinching skin above her hip.  But Franken was not allowed to have his day in court.  Like they said in the wild west, “Do we hang him now, or wait ‘til after the trial and hang him then?”

   Now, a few male Senators have come out to say that Franken was , well, railroaded, and they wish he wouldn't retire,**** but it seems he has not changed his mind.  I agree that he shouldn't renege.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/sen-al-franken-etc.html
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/16/16665830/al-franken-sexual-assault-allegations
** https://www.wsj.com/articles/al-franken-departs-without-grace-1512691869
*** http://time.com/5033572/saturday-night-live-women-alumni-al-franken/
**** https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/democrats-are-second-guessing-the-al-franken-precedent

Monday, December 18, 2017

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING INCREASES AGAIN

CNBC reports that the ISM index for manufacturing remains high though lower than the moneth before:
The Institute for Supply Management's index registered 58.7 in October, slightly better than the 58.6 expected from economists polled by Reuters. That represents a decline from September's 59.8, which was the highest reading for the service sector index since August 2005, according to ISM.

Construction Spending:
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly rose in September as a surge in public construction outlays offset the third straight monthly decline in investment in private projects.
...............................................................
The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that construction spending increased 0.3 percent to $1.22 trillion. But August's construction outlays were revised down to show a 0.1 percent gain instead of the previously reported 0.5 percent rise.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending unchanged in September. Construction spending increased 2.0 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Although public spending has risen, industrial spending has yet to rise.  Industrial spending has been the biggest drag on GDP.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/15/us-industrial-production-nov-2017.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/01/october-ism-nonmanufacturing-index-september-construction-spending.html


Saturday, December 16, 2017

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: BLUE VS RED STATES

Some insights are emerging as to why certain people are so angry at our government (Wall Street Journal).  Job prospects in red states seem to be poorer than in blue states where labor force participation is increasing, at least temporarily.*

Labor force participation in blue states was 62.4% last December (2016) whereas it rose to 63.9% in September (2017).  The figures for red states were 62.1% last December and 62.0% in September.   The participation rate in red states is, however, still above the low of 61.9% in September of 2016.  For red states there was a peak in between the two dates where red states hit 62.6% in April (2017), but since then has collapsed (see figure).

Why is this so?  The WSJ reports that:
Though the labor market has grown robustly nationwide this year, progress has been uneven across blue states and red states. An increasing number of people in red states have stopped looking for work, while a larger share of people in blue states are actively in the workforce.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

“It’s industrial composition. [Red states] are heavy in industries that are downsizing and automating where prospects just look bad,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist at IIF. “The [overall] job market is skewing toward high-value-added jobs.”*

* https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/11/28/why-are-people-in-red-states-dropping-out-of-the-labor-force/?mod=djemRTE_h

Friday, December 15, 2017

THE DAY HELL FROZE OVER

Mercy Be, but Democrat Doug Jones eked out a victory over a dreadful opponent, Roy Moore, in the Alabama Senatorial race.  He had over 20,000 votes to spare out of something like 1.7 million votes cast.  We can thank the African Americans for this result as they turned out like in 2008 for Obama and the Black women voted 98% for Jones.  All African Americans (men and women) totaled 96% for Jones and also totaled 29% of the votes cast.

Something not mentioned much, but Jones prosecuted two of the killers of the four young African American girls in the church in Birmingham (September 15, 1963) which was something for Blacks to hang their hat on.

But the white vote was not reassuring with over 65% of the white women voting for unbelievably bad  pedophile Roy Moore and 78% of the White men!  But we owe a lot to the Whites that stayed home and didn't vote (The turnout was said to be small.).  Also I just had a feeling that if 2% of the voters wrote in names for their vote, that Jones would have a chance, and that turned out to be correct.

Only a couple of Moore's incredible stances was his romanticized feelings about the age of slavery plus he opposed the Constitutional amendments after the 10th:   In response to a question from one of the only African Americans in the audience — who asked when Moore thought America was last "great" -- Moore acknowledged the nation's history of racial divisions, but said: "I think it was great at the time when families were united — even though we had slavery — they cared for one another…. Our families were strong, our country had a direction."*
.......................................................................
Abolishing the amendments after the 10th amendment would abolish slavery (13th Amendment), prohibited denial of right to vote by race (15th Amendment) as well as the right to vote for women (19th Amendment).**
I could go on.

* http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/08/politics/roy-moore-slavery/index.html
** http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/report_roy_moore_quoted_hitler.html

Thursday, December 14, 2017

DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE CONGRESS'S TAX PLAN

You will see in print and hear on TV various comments on all the wonderful things companies will do with congress's tax plan.  Don't be fooled as no one knows what will happen.

Here are some guesses by a group of CFOs as to what will happen.:
While nearly half of CFOs who responded remain unsure about how the passage of tax reform would play out for their companies in 2018, some are projecting immediate benefits.
More than 20 percent said tax reform will "most likely" lead to an increase in stock buybacks, followed by increased R&D spending and major M&A activity. A little more than 8 percent said tax reform would increase employee wages next year, while just over 4 percent said it is "most likely" to increase headcount.*  See the figure from the reference:*

The firm [CFRA] noted Apple held 94 percent of its $269 billion in cash balances overseas. CFRA predicts the company will repatriate as much as $200 billion back into the U.S. and use most of the proceeds to buy back stock.*
(Click on figure to enlarge)

Actually, many companies may decrease employment as they did after the repatriation of foreign profits in 2004.**  Notice from the figure more than 40% of the CFOs said they would buy back more stock if the 2017 tax-cut bill is enacted.  Not mentioned is the probability that companies will incrrese the executive's pay

Companies are rolling in money and don't need more to do any of the things shown in the figure.  If consumers get more money, they may pay down debt as households are "up to their eyeballs" in debt.  Household debt is at record levels.***  The wealthy probably will mostly buy Treasury bonds and foreign assets (chalets in Switzerlant, etc.).****

Don't be surprised if the results of the tax-cut bill are not anywhere as beneficial as is claimed.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/13/corporations-winner-in-tax-reform-not-the-middle-class-cfo-survey.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/here-are-25-companies-that-will-benefit-the-most-from-the-gop-tax-plan.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/tax-holiday-for-repatriation-of.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/household-debt-at-new-high.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

JOBS: NOVEMBER 2017

CNBC has summarized a report on jobs growth in November from the Department of Labor.  I further summarize the CNBC report:

The education and health-care industry was the big employment-gain leader for the month. The government explained that much of those increases came from health care, which added roughly 25,000 jobs in ambulatory health-care services.
Monthly employment growth in health care averaged 24,000 thus far in 2017, compared with an average increase of 32,000 per month in 2016, according to the BLS.
"Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday in a release. "Employment growth has averaged 174,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 187,000 in 2016."
(Click on figure to enlarge)

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html

Monday, December 11, 2017

IS LIFE BETTER TODAY THAN 50 YRS AGO?

It is nice to know that youth of the world are not as depressed as their parents and grandparents.  Below is a ranking given by CNBC* (source given at the bottom of the table and www.pewglobal.org) in order of the difference between the optimism of youth verses their seniors.  On this scale, youth scores 51% think life is better now than it was 50 yrs ago compared the their parents and grandparents.  But among the 8 countries listed, the youth of America are actually 6th in optimism after Sweden (most optimistic), Germany, UK,  Australia, and South Africa.

Not listed in the table below is Vietnam which Pew lists as the most optimistic of nations with 88% of the people saying life is better now than 50 yrs ago and more than 90% saying the economy is good.*  The U.S. does not rank among the most optimistic nations considering all people where only 37% of the people say Life is better and 41% say Life is worse now than it was 50 yrs ago.*

By the way, the worst country for views on Life is Venezuela where only 10% of the people think Life is better than it was 50 yrs ago and  72% think Life is worse.  Globally the figures are 43% better and 38% worse.  Note the figures do not total 100% so I suppose a group is not counted who say they do not know.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)
Highly educated are more optimisitic:
In about more than half the countries he surveyed, most prominently in places like Poland, Peru, the Netherlands and Spain, people with higher levels of education were more likely to say that life is currently better than 50 years, Poushter noted*.

Populists tend to be depressed:
For example, Germans who support the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) are 28 percentage points more likely to say that life is worse off for people like them than those who have an unfavorable view of the anti-immigrant party. This pattern also holds in Sweden among supporters of the Swedish Democrats, in France among those with a favorable view of National Front, in the Netherlands among PVV supporters and in the UK among fans of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).**

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/the-top-8-countries-where-millennials-are-most-optimistic.html
** http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/12/05/worldwide-people-divided-on-whether-life-today-is-better-than-in-the-past/

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

BEAR'S EARS AND GRAND STAIRCASE-ESCALANTE NATIONAL MONUMENTS

President Trump has issued an Executive Order vastly reducing the size of Bear's Ears (designated by President Obama) and Grand Staircase-Escalante  National Monuments

On December 4, 2017, Trump reduced the size of the [Bear's Ears] monument by about 1.3 million acres (85%). Trump shrank another national monument, Grand Staircase-Escalante [about 46%], on the same day*.  See the figure below:**



He said that U.S. territory should be governed by local people and not by a few people  in Washington (e.g. the national government).  A problem with that argument is that the land is owned by the U.S. Government or, in other words, the American people.  While the local inhabitants are a part of the American people, they are only a small part of the entire American people.  Therefore it seems to me that the people's land should be administered by the people's representative which is the Federal government..

Existing rights are not effected.  If you already had grazing rights on the land, it will continue.  I urge you to read the entire fact sheet.***

The national monument designation does not alter or affect valid existing rights of any party and will not impact the operation, maintenance, replacements or modification of existing utilities, pipelines or telecommunications, as long as they are consistent with the care and management of the objects identified in the national monument proclamation. A mineral resource assessment is made prior to designation of Federal land as a wilderness or monument status.  See below for mineral resource information on Bear's Ears National Monument.***
.............................................................
Yes. Currently, livestock grazing occurs throughout most of the monument area including nine active Forest Service allotments. Existing laws, regulations and policies followed by the Forest Service and BLM in issuing and administering grazing permits or leases shall continue to apply to ensure ongoing consistency with the monument. Likewise, timber management, including for purposes of restoration and forest health, will continue pursuant to existing laws, regulations and policies, consistent with the proper care and management of the national monument. ***


Specifically, 11 “wilderness study areas” in the Bears Ears region prohibit most motorized travel, construction of new roads and development of oil, gas or coal. These wilderness study areas include many of the region’s iconic locations: Cedar Mesa, Mancos Mesa and Cheese Box Canyon, to name a few. The region is also home to the Dark Canyon Wilderness, designated by Congress in 1984 and completely protected from motorized travel or natural resource extraction. Farther south lies the famed Valley of the Gods, federally preserved as an “area of critical environmental concern” to ensure the integrity of beautiful scenic vistas.****
............................................................
Fact: Mineral resources beneath Bears Ears are scarce. There is no developable oil and gas. The region’s nonrenewable resources, including uranium near the Daneros Mine, were actually outside the expansive monument boundaries declared by Obama. The integrity of the Bears Ears landscape, long kept intact before the creation of the monument, will almost certainly remain intact after Trump’s announcement. And to ensure this going forward, the state of Utah is asking for congressional legislation that will exclude the region from mineral extraction.****

In contrast, there do appear to be mineral resources in the Grand Staircase-Escalante  National Monument was designated by Bill Clinton, including coal on school lands.  It was promised that other lands for school benefit will be found elsewhere.***

As I don't know the details of how many of the Indian artifacts will be in the removed area, I cannot make an assessment and will leave it to others.  I don't know how destruction or looting of Indian artifacts will be enhanced by removal of the area from the monument.  In both cases it is against the law.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bears_Ears_National_Monument
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/12/05/the-energy-202-trump-says-his-bears-ears-decision-isn-t-controversial-but-he-s-wrong/5a25a7ce30fb0469e883f9e1/?utm_term=.6d977b113e41
*** https://www.fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/bear-ears-fact-sheet.pdf
**** https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865693641/Gary-Herbert-5-myths-about-Bears-Ears.html

Monday, December 4, 2017

HAPPINESS AND TAXES

Since taxes are a big topic of the day in the U.S., it may come as a surprise that the happiest countries in the world have rather high taxes, much higher then the U.S.

According to the United Nations' latest World Happiness Report, as covered by CBS News, the top 10 happiest countries are:*
1. Norway
2. Denmark
3. Iceland
4. Switzerland
5. Finland
6. Netherlands
7. Canada
8. New Zealand
9. Australia
10. Sweden
..............................................................
As of 2014, in terms of total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP and measured per capita, Norway came in at No. 2 out of 35 countries ($37,682 USD), Denmark at No. 3 ($30,630 USD), and Iceland came in at No. 9 ($20,418 USD), according to the OECD.*
................................................................
Unlike Americans, however, residents of New Zealand 
enjoy the protection of a robust welfare state including 
a public health system, 18 weeks of subsidized parental
 leave and benefits for middle- and low-income families 
with young children.
The U.S. ranks No. 14 for happiness, significantly lower 
than its neighbor to the north, Canada.*

Ow is the ranking of happiness done?
All of the top four countries rank highly on all the main factors found to support happiness: caring, freedom, generosity, honesty, health, income and good governance.
.....................................................................
All of the other countries in the top ten also have high values in all six of the key variables used to explain happiness differences among countries and through time – income, healthy life expectancy, having someone to count on in times of trouble, generosity, freedom and trust, with the latter measured by the absence of corruption in business and government.**


Perhaps if happiness is a goal, we in the U.S. should think of how we can afford these things that other countries have rather than try to get rid of what we have.   But then, maybe happiness is not our goal.  Maybe it is just a constant pursuit of happiness a la the constitution and not achieving it.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/the-happiest-countries-in-the-world-also-pay-a-lot-in-taxes.html
** http://worldhappiness.report/ed/2017/

Friday, December 1, 2017

WE NEED TO PASS THE BILL TO FIND OUT WHAT'S IN IT

Haven't we heard this before that "We Need To Pass The Bill To Find Out What's In It?"  Nancy Pelosi famously said this about the lumbering ACA Healthcare bill.  That bill was broadly discussed repeatedly, amended, etc. in regular order.  In contrast, the current tax cut bill has been rapidly thrown together and it seems it will be passed without discussion.

It is a matter of faith among Republicans that tax cuts pay for themselves in spite of all the contrary evidence.  In a recent report of the JCT that the tax cuts will only pay about a third of themselves (a figure I think is optimistic), Republican Larry Lindsay (former adviser to George W. Bush) has said that the JCT claim is a fraud.*

Republicans point to the tax cuts of Jack Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush as examples, but (1) these presidents never came close to balancing the budget, and (2) these tax cuts were done during recessions (on top of Federal deficits) when the cuts might have some significant positive effects.  In contrast, now we have a roaring economy. the stock market indices are setting new highs weekly, and we are near full employment.  But Republicans will fall into line.

Thus this tax cut bill and repatriation of off shore profits by companies is throwing gasoline on the fire.**

Still, CFOs are confident that the bill's reforms will have a positive impact on U.S. economic conditions. In addition, 70.9 percent agree (29.2 percent strongly) that corporate tax reforms will create more U.S. jobs, while 83.3 percent agree (20.8 percent strongly) that corporate tax reforms will stimulate U.S. economic growth.***
I find it hard to believe these CFOs are being honest because their companies are rolling in money and could be doing all these things now.  They do, however, have a different view on what will be done with repatriated funds.

At any rate, it has been pointed out that raising the corporate maximum tax rate to 25% instead of 20% would solve the JCT problem.   I have written that I think lowering the rate from 35% to 25% is worth a try to see what happens.****

With regard to the repatriation of overseas profits, only 12.5% of the CFOs canvassed indicated they will bring all overseas profits back home.***
(Click on figure to enlarge)

Asked what they would do with the repatriated funds, 29.2 percent say they would buy back stock, the most popular response. The percentage of those who use overseas cash to invest in new plants, equipment or technology: 20.8 percent, compared to 12.5 percent who would raise dividends. Only 8.3 percent plan to use repatriated cash to increase headcount.***

Note: As others have said, if we allow companies to bring back profits at especially reduced rates every 10-15 yrs, isn't that an incentive to merge with  overseas companies?
The tax breaks for bringing home such offshore profits “confirm the central tenet of tax planning that a tax deferred is a tax avoided,” said David Miller, a tax lawyer at Proskauer Rose. “For decades, U.S. multinationals have shifted profits abroad and deferred their taxes on them. If either of the tax bills pass, they will be rewarded for doing so."(https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/taxes-offshore-repatriation.html?_r=0)

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/bush-tax-cut-architect-dismisses-jct-scoring-of-the-senate-tax-bill-a-fraud.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/pouring-gasoline-on-fire.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/22/cfos-say-corporate-tax-reform-will-create-jobs-but-may-not-help-wages.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html