ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNEVEN

CNBC has an interesting article on the economic recovery state by state:*

Four states have not yet fully recovered from the Great Recession. As of the third quarter of last year, the latest data available, the economies of Louisiana, Wyoming, Connecticut and Alaska were still smaller than when the recession ended in June 2009.

Other states that have recovered have seen their economic recoveries stall out. Those include Minnesota, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota and West Virginia.
 

States on the East and West coasts, on the other hand, are seeing solid growth, including Washington and Oregon.

Only two other states, Utah and Georgia, are seeing growth of more than 3 percent a year — the Trump administration's annual target for the overall U.S. growth.

There is other information in the article you might find of interest and will want to look at the whole article.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/28/u-s-economy-is-leaving-these-states-behind.html

TAX PLAN BALONEY

Once again with Trump's tax cuts,* we have the Republican myth that tax cuts more than pay for themselves.**   Years ago, I explained why this is not so.  But for openers how about why then not cut taxes to zero and have infinite money?  Baloney, yes, but that is what is claimed.

There are those who say that tax cuts pay for one-third of their cost.  Well maybe.  But often economic benefits of tax cuts (e.g. successful new startups), such as they are, come years into the future and do little now.

Business tax cuts may be something else.  One analysis concludes that a decrease of the business tax cut from 35% to 22% would pay for itself (But taxes paid vary widely.  Currently average companies pay around 28% so this would mean the average company would pay about 15%).  But Trump wants to cut it to 15% for an effective tax rate of around 8%.

Few companies pay the full tax rate:
But by taking advantage of myriad breaks and loopholes that other countries generally do not offer, United States corporations pay only slightly more on average than their counterparts in other industrial countries. And some American corporations use aggressive strategies to pay less — often far less — than their competitors abroad and at home. A Government Accountability Office study released in 2008 found that 55 percent of United States companies paid no federal income taxes during at least one year in a seven-year period it studied.***
.............................................................................
Not all American companies are willing or able to reduce their taxes drastically. Taxes vary more by industry here than abroad, according to a study released in February by Kevin S. Markle of Dartmouth and Douglas A. Shackelford of the University of North Carolina. At the high end, American retailers paid 31 percent in total income taxes, construction 30 percent and manufacturers 26 percent. Financial services companies paid an average of 20 percent, real estate 19 percent and mining 6 percent.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/26/the-white-house-just-outlined-its-tax-plan-heres-whats-in-it.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/07/trouble-with-income-tax-cuts.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2012/06/lowering-tax-myth.html
*** http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/03/business/economy/03rates.html

STOCK MARKET AND THE VIX

The jump in the stock market indices this week may be explained by a news item on April 18th:
The CBOE Volatility index recently hit its highest level of the year, just above 16, as global geopolitical concerns pressure the markets, sending the S&P 500 sliding modestly toward the end of last week. This may signal a prime buying opportunity, according to Oppenheimer's head of technical analysis, Ari Wald, who points to an intriguing relationship between the market's moves and spikes in the VIX.*

(click on figure to enlarge)

Perhaps the following figure,** shows the relationship better, but uses the same information from Ari Wald::

(click on figure to enlarge)

Both references come to the same conclusion.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/18/since-1990-market-gains-double-when-this-happens--and-it-just-did.html
** http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/06/19/chart-o-the-day-buying-on-vix-spikes/

TRUMP' FIRST 100 DAYS - EXECUTIVE ORDERS

(Updated April 29th)

Whereas Trump's signing of bills shows his fidelity to Republican causes - fewer protections for the public, his executive orders, memorandums, and proclamations may show more his real feeling or at least those of his base. I'm not sure how many Executive orders Trump has signed but I believe it is at least 28 (It seems like more.) as of April 29th.*  Most of these orders ask for studies of some sort that have no immediate effect although they may at some point in the future.

One such instructive moment arrived last Monday, when Trump visited Snap-on Tools in Kenosha, Wisconsin, to unveil his so-called “Buy American and Hire American” executive order with trademark showmanship.
.....................................................................
The action directed federal agencies to “assess” the enforcement of existing guidelines that prioritize the use of American firms and goods and to then “submit findings” within 150 days. It similarly asked a group of relevant cabinet secretaries to “as soon as practicable, suggest reforms” on eliminating fraud and abuse of the H-1B program that awards visas to highly-skilled foreign workers.
.....................................................................
As of now, Trump has signed more executive actions in the same period than his recent predecessors.
If he keeps up his current pace, Trump is on track to sign 96 executive orders by the end of the year, according to the American Presidency Project – far more than George Washington, who signed just eight, but far fewer than Franklin D. Roosevelt, who signed a staggering 3,721 orders as he imposed his sweeping New Deal program in response to the Great Depression.
Republicans, including Trump, routinely denounced Obama for what they claimed was unprecedented unilateral action and often honed their campaign messages around ending Obama’s “overreach”of the executive branch. But Obama signed the fewest executive orders per year, 35 on average, since Grover Cleveland in the 1890s.
In total, Obama signed 277 executive orders during his two-term presidency, lower than the tally of his two immediate predecessors. George W Bush signed 291 executive orders over eight years, while Bill Clinton finished his two-term presidency with 364 such actions. 

Probably Trump's most effective orders are negative, following the legislation he has signed:**
A notice that the U.S. will begin withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Trump called the order "a great thing for the American worker.
An order that directs federal agencies to ease the “regulatory burdens” of ObamaCare. It orders agencies to “waive, defer, grant exemptions from, or delay the implementation of any provision or requirement” of ObamaCare that imposes a “fiscal burden on any State or a cost, fee, tax, penalty, or regulatory burden on individuals, families, healthcare providers, health insurers, patients, recipients of healthcare services, purchasers of health insurance, or makers of medical devices, products, or medications.”**  This order actually does nothing because it says "within the law" so states could do that anyway without this order.
Trump revoked "...the requirement that companies seeking federal contracts prove they've complied with federal laws banning discrimination based on sexual identity or orientation."

He also rescinded something called the Global Gag Rule

President Trump’s reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy, better known as the global gag rule, came as no surprise to anyone working in the field of global health. We have been through this before — in 1984, when the policy was first put into effect by President Reagan, and then in 1993, 2001, and 2009, when it was repealed, reinstated, and repealed again.

The Mexico City Policy is called a gag rule because it limits not just what organizations and health providers do but what they are permitted to say. It prevents foreign organizations that receive US government funding from performing abortions — even if they are using funds from non-US government sources and even if abortion is completely legal in their countries.

The global gag rule also steps right between a woman and her doctor, nurse, or midwife, preventing these frontline health providers from telling their patients about the full, legal range of health options available to them. It forbids trusted advisers from giving honest, comprehensive health advice and information. I started my career as a nurse-midwife, and then worked in maternal and newborn health programs in Africa and Asia, so I know what this will mean for the lives and health of women and their families.

When the global gag rule was previously in force, it applied only to foreign organizations that received funds from the US budget for family planning assistance. That meant the effects were mostly limited to organizations focused on contraceptive services.
But President Trump’s expanded policy will apply to any foreign organization that receives any US global health funding. That could mean endangering maternal and child health programs, efforts to fight the Zika virus, and the expansive PEPFAR program to stop HIV/AIDS, perhaps the most successful health aid program in US history.
Here’s what happened when the narrower policy was in place before: Clinics were closed, services were reduced, and there were more unintended pregnancies and unsafe abortions.*

Perhaps the most unfortunate,, though not surprising, order regards immigration where the Dept. of Homeland Security is breaking up families (something that many Republicans said wouldn't be done).  With 11 million illegal immigrants to choose from, I don't know why they are doing this.  It just seems mean and will harm the children who remain in the U.S. and are U.S. citizens:
Two multi-pronged orders on border security and immigration enforcement including: the authorization of a U.S.-Mexico border wall; the stripping of federal grant money to sanctuary cities; hiring 5,000 more Border Patrol agents; ending “catch-and-release” policies for illegal immigrants; and reinstating local and state immigration enforcement partnerships.**
In many cases, the mother being deported has committed no crime since entering the country.  I'm disappointed in John Kelly.

Trump plans to impose a 20% tariff on Canadian soft lumber used in building homes because of claims it is being subsidized..  He can do this by executive order   Of course this will make building homes in America more expensive. (http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/23/news/economy/trump-tariff-power/) probably somewhere between $1,000 and $2,000.

Two orders are held up in the courts: (1) Trump's Muslim Ban, and more recently (2) Trump's plan to hold Federal funding from "Sanctuary cities."  This latter order is held up because Sanctuary City was not defined and it involves impoundment of funds authorized by congress.  Impoundment of Federal funds is what got Nixon in so much trouble though Watergate became more sexy.  Curiously Trump says it is the 9th circuit that held this up whereas in reality it was a Federal Judge in San Francisco.  If his decision is appealed, then it will go to the 9th Circuit that may well hold it up too.

There are two orders that I approve of, however, though many don't:
Two orders reviving the Keystone XL pipeline and Dakota Access piplines. He also signed three other related orders that would: expedite the environmental permitting process for infrastructure projects related to the pipelines; direct the Commerce Department to streamline the manufacturing permitting process; and give the Commerce Department 180 days to maximize the use of U.S. steel in
the pipeline.**
I also have nothing against his Arctic or Atlantic Shelf oil drilling executive orders.  I am for drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Area (ANWR) because you don't know until you bring it in (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/search?q=ANWR) and President Obamawas going to open up the Atlantic Shelf for drilling but was foiled by the BP disaster in the Gulf (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/search?q=Atlantic+shelf).  The drilling on the Atlantic shelf has special problems because of patches of hydrates in the column being drilled that could shoot a conventional drill ridge a good start towards the moon.  But companies are aware of this.

Most of the executive orders are benign and ask for studies and the like. About some I just don't know, for example  one that moves an initiative to assist historically black colleges and universities from the Education Department into the White House, an administration official said.  ... The initiative urges federal agencies to contract with black colleges..*** At least if doesn't sound harmful, though I am not sure what effect the words in hopes of streamlining the program means..

He also signed two other, noncontroversial bills. One bill (HR 321) directs the NASA administrator to encourage female students to study and pursue careers in science, technology, engineering and math. The second (HR 255) encourages the National Science Foundation to support entrepreneurial programs for women in the STEM fields.***

* http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-25-executive-orders-in-100-days-more-cosmetic-than-substantive/ar-BBAaXYa?li=BBnb7Kz
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/here-s-full-list-donald-trump-s-executive-orders-n720796
https://www.statnews.com/2017/01/27/global-gag-rule-trump-mexico-city/
** http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/20/list-trumps-executive-orders.html
*** https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-sign-executive-orders-on-water-rule-black-colleges-initiative-1488276000

TRUMPS FIRST 100 DAYS - LEGISLATION

President Donald Trump has signed more bills into law than I was aware of.  The first bill signed by President Trump into law was one to permit Gen Mattis to become Secretary of the Defense before being retired from the military for three years.  Time magazine has an article on Trump's first 100 days in office.  Trump promised to get 60 bills through in his first 100 days:
In fact, only 28 bills have been signed into law since Trump took office in late January. In contrast, Roosevelt signed 76 bills into law in his first 100 days. President Harry Truman, in second place on this list, signed 55 bills into law in his first months in the White House. Trump's predecessor and frequent target of derision, President Barack Obama, signed 11 bills into law, but the early days of his administration are considered productive because they include major legislation to ensure children in low-income households have health insurance as well as the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which fights wage discrimination.*

Most of the bills Trump signed take away protections, like the second bill Trump signed, the Obama coal mining rule.  The bill quashes the Office of Surface Mining's Stream Protection Rule, a regulation to protect waterways from coal mining waste that officials finalized in December.**

Then there was a bill to permit mentally ill people to buy guns.  Don't you feel safer?
The rule, which was finalized in December, added people receiving Social Security checks for mental illnesses and people deemed unfit to handle their own financial affairs to the national background check database. ***  Apparently President Trump was not proud of this bill because he signed it in privacy.
One scary bill he signed was to do away with online privacy.
The bill scraps a Federal Communications Commission online privacy regulation issued in October to give consumers more control over how companies like Comcast, ATT and Verizon share that information. Critics have argued that the rule would stifle innovation and pick winners and losers among internet companies.****
Though Planned Parenthood does perform some abortions, it is a small part of their medical services, but a bill has been passed saying that states don't have to reimburse Planned Parenthood for medical services:
President Donald Trump privately signed a bill on Thursday that allows states to withhold federal money from organizations that provide abortion services, including Planned Parenthood, a group frequently targeted by Republicans.
...................................................................
The bulk of federal money Planned Parenthood receives, though, goes toward preventive health care, birth control, pregnancy tests and other women's health services. Federal law prohibits taxpayer dollars from funding abortions and Planned Parenthood says 3% of the services it provides are abortions.**** The abortions are funded through donations.

Trump's base has escaped the silver bullet because his repeal and replace health care bill was withdrawn, at least for the foreseeable future. (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/03/trumps-base-escapes-silver-bullet.html)

Four more bills are described in an article in USA Today.****  Rather than continue here with the list, I suggest you Google - https://search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=Bills+signed+by+Trump&ei=UTF-8&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs-002 - to find other bills signed.

* http://www.newsweek.com/first-100-days-how-does-trump-compare-other-presidents-587828
** http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/319938-trump-signs-bill-undoing-obama-coal-mining-rule
*** http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-signs-bill-revoking-obama-era-gun-checks-people-mental-n727221
**** https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/27/trump-signs-four-bills-roll-back-obama-era-regulations/99690456/
http://www.chicagotribune.com/bluesky/technology/ct-trump-internet-privacy-20170403-story.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/donald-trump-planned-parenthood-money/index.html

ARE YOU CONFUSED TOO?

I can't figure out what is going on.  We supposedly dropped 29.5 tons of TNT on an airport, enough to bomb it back to the Stone Age, but the airport continued to operate as if nothing had happened.  Somewhere there may be a huge hole.  Well it may have achieved its goal that was to show the American people that we did "something."  Where are the surveillance pictures showing the airport damage?

Then we had the Mother-Of-All-Bombs that killed 38 Al Qaeda troops, but then there was the news that fierce fighting continues in the area.  OK, the bomb did what it could, but ithe actual damage seems to have been very little.  At least we have a surveillance video.

Now we have the case of our missing aircraft carrier Vinson .  The Secretary of Defense, the President's   national security adviser, the President himself, and his news man all said the aircraft was "steaming" to North Korean waters when in actuality it was on maneuvers thousands of miles away in the India Ocean.   Did the aircraft carrier's captain disobey orders? What were they doing, just "Yanking, North Korean's chain?"  Unfortunately it makes the U.S. military look stupid to Western countries, gives Russia a laugh, and scares the South Koreans.

As of today (April 20), it does appear that the Vinson will steam towards North Korea after all.*  After all, what else can you do after saying you are doing it?

(Click on figure to enlarge)

In the words of our president, "What is going on?"

TRUMP VS THE WORKING MAN

Trump talks a lot about abundant, good paying jobs for the working man.   This played a major role in his getting elected, but, at least twice, Trump has said the American worker is overpaid.  And his actions are where his mouth is.

Mar-a-Lago  Just take Mar-A-Lago, Trumps pricey club in Florida.  The working man can't be a member what with a $200,000 entry fee, probably at least 4X his yearly salary.  And he can't work there either because the club is nearly totally staffed by foreigners (granted the work contracts are for 8 mo. because it is closed for 4 mo. in the summer):  But at his private club in south Florida, he has filled his staff almost exclusively with imported foreign workers. And he has been doing it for years.  The U.S. Department of Labor has confirmed to CNN that between 2013 and fall 2015, Trump's Mar-a-Lago club posted 250 seasonal job openings and filled just 4 of those jobs with American workers. The club requested the rest of the staff be temporarily imported through the Federal government's H-2B visa process. Basically, Mar-a-Lago brings in its seasonal staff from overseas.*

Chinese Steel And Aluminum  At the second presidential debate, Donald Trump asked the American public to "look at what’s happening to steel and the cost of steel, and China dumping vast amounts of steel all over the United States, which essentially is killing our steelworkers and our steel companies." We did and so did Newsweek. The report, published last week, showed us yet again that all Trump does is run his mouth and pad his pockets. The Newsweek report found Trump used cheap Chinese steel and aluminum in two of his recent construction projects and went to great lengths to cover his tracks. Donald Trump turned his back on the U.S. steel and aluminum industries but, somehow, is claiming to be its savior.**

Health Care  The item on health care is a bit different, but it does involve throwing Trump's core "under the bus."  The original Trump-Ryan health care bill was going to take away the Medicaid expansion in the ACA m a decrease in Medicare that would fall mainly on Trump's supporters.  I don't claim to fully understand the revised plan called the MacArthur Amendment, said to maybe be able to pass the House.***  No mention in the summaries talk about the decrease in Medicaid.  Perhaps the item is covered by the "limited waver option?"  Can states keep their expanded Medicaid if they apply for a waver?  I guess we'll have to wait to see about Medicaid.  As it was the key to pulling the original ACHA Plan,  I'm surprised that no mention is made of it in the MacArthur Amendment.  Note added April 21: Morning Joe this morning sated that the decrease in Medicaid is still in the revised bill.   If so, I doubt it will pass.

Cement  But how about the Great Wall Of Trump, surely that will be built of U.S. cement?  Well, if the wall is built, there is a significant chance that it will be built with Mexican concrete: Cemex Is Best Positioned To Benefit From The Wall, And Does Not Have A Major Competitor In The United States

According to information published by the Global Cement Directory, Cemex is the largest producer of cement in North American and does not have any American competitors of equal size. It has been described in a diplomatic cable released by Wikileaks as being one of "Mexico's monopolists" with a market share of 87.6%. Data collected using the installed capacity of companies’ integrated cement plants shows that the US does not even break the top ten list of cement producers globally. Cemex, however, ranks fifth, far ahead of their only Western competitor in Brazil.****

* http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/18/news/economy/trump-maralago/
** https://aflcio.org/2016/10/12/six-facts-donald-trumps-use-chinese-steel\*** http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-31/art-new-deal-how-trump-using-mexican-company-cemexs-concrete-build-wall-and-profit-b
*** http://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-8ab0-df96-a9db-dff115c30001
****  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-31/art-new-deal-how-trump-using-mexican-company-cemexs-concrete-build-wall-and-profit-b
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/25/donald-trump-border-wall-mexican-construction-firms-workers-biggest-winners

CARS, SELF-DRIVING TESTING IN CALIFORNIA

I find the self-driving car to be the most exciting development since the Apollo Program of manned trips to the moon, and this includes such developments as the GPS and the Cell Phone.  Once again California is proving to be the avant-garde state with  30 companies  testing these cars (many I haven't previously heard of) with Volkswagen Group of America being the first and Apple being the latest addition:*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

I hope a self-driving car can be marketed during my lifetime.  Since I will be 86 this month, they better hurry up.  I want one Daddy!

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/14/apple-just-received-a-permit-to-test-self-driving-cars-in-california.html

MOTHER OF ALL BOMBS

(this post has been updated on April 15, 2017)

The Mother Of All Bombs* has 11.5 tons of explosives.  This huge bomb explodes just above the surface and shakes the ground, maybe collapsing tunnels and killing people within about a mile radius so you can't use it in populated areas unless the target is compelling.**  SAW A SURVEILLANCE VIDEO!

The claim is that 28 ISIS fighters were killed and no civilians found dead. Later updated to 36.

You can only use this weapon in restricted cases such as on an open battlefield, that rarely esists any more, or a remote area like a mountainous area.

Unlike the airport bombing where little damage seems to have been done (and no surveillance photos available),Though maybe it was still effective.  With 29.5 tons of explosives on 59 Tomahawk missiles, the entire airport could have been destroyed but for reasons I don't understand, it was not done.

* The name is a takeoff from the Desert Storm War to free Kuwait fro Iraq 1990-1991 where Saddam Husain said there would be the Mother Of All Battles.
** http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/13/us-military-drops-mother-bombs-isis-afghanistan/
 http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/13/politics/afghanistan-isis-moab-bomb/
also see (same video):
 Snopes says the only authentic video of the bomb being exploed is at http://www.snopes.com/explosion-moab-afghanistan/?utm_source=bme&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily&bt_ee=L7s4H5xAD5k5ACX0TLMHaOTkQsiBgLIOLQ1Hr+9N7UfjHxnIo2YuhDhSsBK/ytQh&bt_ts=1492269981252&utm_source=bme&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily&bt_ee=UYK5ilvbeaHVB6DAOuDCrxQx9oW4lqZvqf+q0H9OHXUSRirslXbxawSrBCtuFVlu&bt_ts=1492270797347

TRUMP APPOINTMENTS BY DAYS TO APPOINTMENT AND VOTE

The fastest position to be filled in the Trump administration is the Secretary of Veteran's Affairs David Shulkin at 34 days by a unanimous vote of 100 - 0!  He is followed by John f. Kelly for the Dept. of Homeland Security at 44 days with a vote of 88 - 11; however,  Defense Secretary James Mattis passed with a vote of 98 - 1 (second to David Shulkin) though it took 50 days.  See the figure below.

Two positions are still pending, Sonny Perdue at the Dept. of Agriculture, and David Acosta at the Dept. of Labor (The delay on Acosta is more understandable because he replaced Andrew Puzder who withdrew after consideration for a long time).

The position with the narrowest approval is, of course, Betsy DeVos who was approved by a 51-50 vote decided by the Vice-President.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Rather unusual is that there are no holdovers from the Obama Administration, though very recently Trump shows some favor for Fed chief Janet Yellen.  Obama, however had several hod overs including the Dept of Defense Robert Gates and reappointed Fed Chief Ben Bernanke.  Others are Sheila Bair (FDIC) and Ray LaHood (Transportation).  Other Republicans appointed by Obama are Former Rep. John McHugh from upstate New York, as Army secretary; Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who was a Mormon missionary in China in his youth, as ambassador to China; Francis Collins, an evangelical Christian, as director of the National Institutes of Health though not a Republican.**

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/13/trump-administration-hasnt-even-named-candidates-for-hundreds-of-key-positions.html
** mhttp://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-keeps-several-bush-picks-in-top-jobs/

WHAT WILL THE FED DO?

We seem to be entering a new phase with the Fed as there is beginning to be talk about about the Fed just letting some of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet of bonds mature and not renew them (see reference for the figure).*



(click on figure to enlarge)

"The biggest wild card is the politics. It's really important here, Europe, Middle East, North Korea. There's a lot of moving pieces," the former Pimco co-CEO [El-Erian] said in a "Squawk Box" interview. "The second-biggest wild card is the reaction of the economy to years and years of low, noninclusive growth."*
................................................................
... St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said opinions differed within the Fed on ending its balance sheet reinvestment policy, but he felt it could start later in the year. Bullard emphasized the central bank would not be actively selling assets, but rather not replacing them as they mature.*

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/the-fed-isnt-even-close-to-being-the-biggest-wild-card-for-markets-mohamed-el-erian-argues.html

EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES: MARCH 2017

Here is an update on the employment picture as of March 2017.

The official unemployment rate is defined as "total employed, as a percent of the civilian labor force," but doesn't include a number of employment situations in which workers may find themselves. The U-6 rate is defined as all unemployed, "plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force."

In other words: the unemployed, the underemployed and the discouraged.*

Some people prefer the U-6 measurement which still has a little ways to go to meet the pre-Financial Armageddon values (about 1% lower).  U-3, however, is at pre-Financial Armageddon values.

(click on figure to enlarge; in the reference, the figure is interactive)*

I haven't seen this sort of figure before (see below).  I find it very interesting.  all in all, it looks like the employment picture is pretty good with wage increases above 2% (in fact 3% according to one report.**).  So far so good.  Note that the ratio now is significantly higher than before the Financial Armageddon of 2008-2009, but below the roaring 1990's.

(click on figure to enlarge)*

It seems as if there is a problem finding workers qualified to fill OPEN employment slots.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/07/us-reported-4-5-unemployment-rate-but-realistic-number-is-higher.html
** http://lowcountryceo.com/news/2017/04/us-wages-increase-3-march-year-over-year-according-glassdoor-local-pay-reports/
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN16H0KA

SOMETHING WRONG ABOUT THE SYRIAN AIRPORT BOMBING

There is something not right about the Syrian Shayrat airport bombing.  Oh, I don't object to bombing a Syrian airport in wake of a poison gas attack.  Assuming that missiles were fired off (not pictures off the shelf) and armed, it seems like they didn't hit the airport.  (1) There are reports that half the missiles fell short, (2) There are reports of planes taking off from the airport the next day,* (3) Russians had been warned of the attack to minimize human casualties [See added note at the end.] and (4) Where are the surveillance photos?  I saw one photo of explosions, but it was through some trees and it wasn't clear where they hit.  There also was a photo of some military people examining some wreckage.

I believe that President Trump is impulsive enough to do such an attack.  After all, Assad agreed to give up his poison gases outlawed by the Geneva Convention and the Russians promised to monitor this.  So Trump had reason enough to make an attack though previously he has tweeted many times that we should stay out of Syria or at least get approval from congress.  But that was then (when Obama was president), but where are the surveillance photos of the damage?  It is even said that the runways were untouched.

The official noted that up to 20 Syrian aircraft were destroyed in Thursday's airstrikes but added that the missiles did not target every aircraft at the base and that the runway was untouched.* (underlining mine)

A Syrian official told the Associated Press that at least seven people had been killed and nine wounded in the US missile attack. Reuters reported that the Syrian state news agency said the strikes had killed nine civilians, including four children, in areas near the airbase. The death toll has not been independently verified.**
...............................................................
[Russian] Konashenkov insisted that the effectiveness of the US strike was “very low”, claiming that only 23 of the 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles reached the Shayrat airbase in the province of Homs. He said the strikes had destroyed only six MiG-23 fighter jets of the Syrian airforce, which were under repair, but didn’t damage other Syrian warplanes at the base.**

It took 59 missiles to destroy up to 20 planes?  I suspect the missiles cost more than the planes, but who ever said that war was economical?.

Comment: I understand that to die of poison gas can be very bad, but, in reality, is it any worse than being blown apart by bombs or slowly dying from shrapnel wounds?  Can you really civilize war?  Isn't that an oxymoron?

Note added April 04-09-2017: I've now seen more pictures of the airport.  There is remarkably little damage seen.  You always see pictures of a double hanger with one of the fronts smoke damaged but not physically.  The statement saying only 8 planes were destroyed may be true.  Because the Russians were warned, probably all planes that could be flown out were.

* http://abcnews.go.com/US/syrian-jets-off-air-base-hit-us/story?id=46646770
** https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/07/us-airstrikes-on-syria-donald-trump-what-we-know-so-far

SORRY BUT THIS IS WHERE I CAME IN

I started to watch Morning Joe, this morning, but all the talk, for some reason, was about Susan Rice and her unmasking of names of Americans inadvertently caught in intelligence reports.  It is not unusual for a Security Adviser to do this, but the claim is that she did it for political purposes.  If that is so, she was remarkably unsuccessful.

Republicans hate her for telling the truth about Benghazi (that it started because of a negative movie trailer about Mohammad).  Later it turned into a terrorist attack.  No matter that there have not been anti-Mohammad books, Koran burnings, or movies since and there have been no embassy or consulate attacks.  At any rate, I’ve heard all those lies before that have been kept up for years.  Why don't Republicans focus on the two Embassy attacks under Ronald Reagan (Lebanon and Kuwait), both of which were much bigger with more deaths than Benghazi,  to say nothing of the Marine base Beirut bombing from which Reagan cut and ran.  Oh, that's right, Reagan is Sainted.  This is where I came in so I deleted my recording of Morning Joe and haven’t listened to a political TV program since.  I deleted my recording of Andrea Mitchell  without looking at any of it.

Whatever happened to the Russian involvement in our presidential election?

Apparently the House Intelligence Committee wants to  interview Susan.  Well, I guess I can't blame Kevin Nunes because he foresees his role as defending the President, and he seems to be doing a good job of it.  He has even got some Democrats sidelined on the Susan Rice business.

You know that the Trump group may just have noticed the Russian misinformation campaign and thought it would make good political fodder so they used it.  No one claims that what you say in an election campaign needs to be true so that would be no crime.  I've heard that things said in political campaigns may not be even admissible in court. If so, why doesn't the Trump administration just say so and get it over with?  I guess because it does go far beyond that.  The latest involves Betsy DeVos's brother Erik Prince.   Why do all Trump roads lead to Russia?

Has anyone noticed that Trump doesn't seem to like democracy?  He won't say a bad word about Putin, he shakes hands with the dictator of Egypt but not the leader of the Western World Angela Merkle, and, in the past, he has even said what he thinks are some kind words about the dictator of North Korea (strong leader).

Well at least one good thing has come out of all this from our standpoint in that Trump hasn't dared to get rid of the sanctions against Russia.

Wake me if there is anything new on the Russian interference in our recent Presidential election.

SOLAR INDUSTRY EMPLOYS MORE THAN COAL, OIL, AND GAS COMBINED

Although the potential workforce is declining, automation of various kinds is increasing so the forecast of productivity will increase.(see figure)  (but mysteriously decline a bit far into the future).*  I can't quite get my mind around this, but increasing productivity with a declining workforce is what we want, isn't it?  I mean thousands of jobs are just going to continue to disappear as various kinds of automation take over.

So far,consumption is very healthy, but what is going to happen as the increase of unpaid people rises dramatically?  What we are seeing is that the figure called GDP is growing obsolete.  Companies are not building new factories because relatively low-cost automation of existing factories results in great increases in productivity so the new factories are not needed.

(click on figure to enlarge)

How will people survive as jobs continue to disappear?  One proposal that is gaining strength is the guaranteed minimum income that will allow people to live a modest life.  Perhaps volunteerism will replace paid work?  But how to finance this.  Perhaps automation equipment  can be taxed as if they are people.  But this will be difficult to establish.  Will dishwashers and washing machines be taxed?  How about refrigerators and microwaves?

Assuming the above can be worked out, how high should the taxes be?  You don't want them to be so high that they discourage productivity increases.

Right now, the approach the current administration is pursuing is a modern day Luddism, i.e. keeping jobs around that aren't needed anymore.**  This sort of thing was done for many years by unions, e.g. requiring more employees on trains than were needed (maybe as many as 10).  Today many trains are operated by two people.  The first step by the present administration is to restore coal mining.  This is going out of our way to pollute the atmosphere.

But the solar industry today employees more than the coal, oil, and gas industries combined.***

Solar energy employed 374,000 people over the year 2015-2016, making up 43 per cent of the sector’s workforce, while the traditional fossil fuels combined employed 187,117, making up just 22 per cent of the workforce, according to the report.***

The rapid growth is mainly  in installers of solar equipment, a job that unemployed coal miners could probably learn plus some increases in jobs for project development.***

(click on figure to enlarge)

  I foresee a day when solar panels become common roofing materials.****
I hope as a country that we don't become modern day Luddites.

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/31/cboinfourcharts-fahey-170330-dc-.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/modern-day-luddites.html
*** http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-solar-power-employs-more-people-more-oil-coal-gas-combined-donald-trump-green-energy-fossil-fuels-a7541971.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/us-solar-industry-employees-grows-oil-gas
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/search?q=common+roofing+materials