DONALD TRUMP EXAMINED

(With more than 900 items, it is hard to find posts involving a particulars topic.  This post is the second in a focus group of posts, summarizing items on a particular topic. The first was on gun control: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/when-did-i-give-up-on-gun-control.html).

At the end of 2015, I wrote a post  called Donald Trump - Final Comments (I Hope).  I didn't obey that "hope" very well, and I find there are 38 posts on Donald Trump listed below in reverse order of date (most recent first).  There may be more and some in which an oblique reference is made to him, but I'm exhausted.  That December 2015 post.may be the most important of all.

Ten items have been picked out for emphasis with an asterisk (*) as they contain information about Donald Trump that is particularly important.  I have selected five posts with a double asterisk (**) that are especially important to understanding Donald Trump.

As a bonus, I've included at the bottom, two posts about Melania Trump.

.............................................................................
REFERENCES

A Wall You Can See Through
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/trump-flip-flopper-in-chief.html
December 20, 2017

Pure As The Driven snow
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/pure-as-driven-snow.html
November 29, 2017

The Wall: Dirty Little Secret
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/the-wall-dirty-little-secret.html
November 14, 2017

Presidential Decorum
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/presidential-decorum.html
October 24, 2017

Doing Something For The Fears and Concerns Of Trump's Base
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/doing-something-for-fears-and-concerns.html
September 24, 2017

** Trump's Humor
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/trumps-humor.html
September 18, 2017

Ratings And The Wall
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/08/ratings-and-wall.html
August 29, 2017

* Trump: Flip Flopper In Chief
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/trump-flip-flopper-in-chief.html
August 21, 2017

Putin's Lap Dog
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/putins-lap-dog.html
July 23, 2017

* Pugnacious Politics
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/pugnacious-politics.html
July 4, 2017

President Donald Trump
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/06/president-donald-trump.htmlj
June 20, 2017

* Cry Baby Trump No Surprise
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/05/crybaby-trump-no-surprise.html
May 15, 2017

** Howard Stern On Donald Trump
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/05/howard-stern-on-donald-trump.html
May 14, 2017

Trump's First 100 Days -  Legislation
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/04/trumps-first-100-days-legislation.html
April 23, 2017

Trump Vs. The Workling Man
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/04/trump-vs-working-man.html
April 20, 2017

Kellyanne Conway Advertises Ivanka Trump Clothing Line
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/02/kellyanne-conway-advertises-ivanka.html
February 11, 2017

Donald Trump And Russia
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/donald-trump-and-russia.html
January 17, 2017

Father-In-Law -- Son-In-Law
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/father-in-law-son-in-law.html
January 13, 2017

He Stole the Election Fair And Square
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/he-stole-election-fair-and-square.html
December 13, 2016

The Greatest Con Wins
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-greatest-con-wins.html
December 12, 2016

** Monetizing The Presidency
http://stopcontinentaMonetizing The Presidencyldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/monetizing-presidency_24.html
November 24, 2016

America Not Ready For A Woman President
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/america-not-ready-for-woman-president.html
November 9, 2016

** Scale Of Lying, The
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-scale-of-lying.html
October 18, 2016

Some Men Have It, Most Don't
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/some-men-have-it-most-dont.html
October 11, 2017

Trump Best Republican?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-best-republican.html
September 19, 2016

Trump Business Dealings
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-business-dealings.html
September 15, 2016

Trump And Putin
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-and-putin.html
September 11, 2016

Trump Best Republican?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-best-republican.html
September 19, 2016

Donald Trump's Biggest Con
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/donald-trumps-biggest-con.html
August 21, 2016

Capt. Humayun Khan, President Obama, Lies, And Schizophrenia
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/08/capt.html
August 6, 2016

It's The Supreme Court, Stupid
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/06/it-is-supreme-court-stupid.html
June 11, 2016

* Litigator In Chief - Donald Trump
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/06/litigator-in-chief-donald-trump.html
June 2, 2016

Donald Trump - Deal Maker
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/05/donald-trump-deal-maker.html
May 10, 2016

** Donald Trump - Final Comments (I Hope)
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/donald-trump-final-comments-i-hope.html
December 9, 2015

Trump Or Cruz?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/12/trump-or-cruz.html
December 4, 2015

* What Are Republicans Looking For?
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/09/what-are-republicans-looking-for.html
September 7, 2015

How To Build "The Wall"
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/09/how-to-build-wall.html
September 2, 2015

All Republicans Are For ....
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/08/all-republicans-are-for.html
August 17, 2015
.................................................................

Melania Trump On Bullying
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/10/melania-trump-onbullying.html
October 24, 2017)

I'm Also Beginning To Feel Sorry For ....
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/11/im-also-beginning-to-feel-sorry-for.html
November 7, 2016

SANTA CLAUS RALLY - 2017

The Santa Claus Rally is said to occur the last 5 trading days of a year plus the first two trading days of the following year.  The Rally has occurred 76% of the time (34 of 45 years) with an average rise of 1.4%.*  The first 5 days of the Santa Claus Rally period were down, and it was going to take a couple of very good days to turn the Santa Claus Rally positive.**  Sure enough, the last two days were very good turning the indices positive, though below average:

The SandP500 closed last Friday at: 2683.34.   It closed today Friday, December 29, at 2673.61.

The DJIA ended last Friday at: 24754.06.  It closed today Friday, December 29, at: 24719.22.

The NASDAQ Composite ended last Friday at: 6995.96.  It closed today Friday, December 29, at. 6903.39

The Russell 2000 (small capitalization companies) ended last Friday at: 1542.93.  It closed today Friday, December 29, at 1535.51

* http://www.businessinsider.com/santa-claus-rally-history-2015-12
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/12/santa-claus-rally.html

GREATER FOOL THEORY

There is something called the Greater Fool Theory.  It really is a theory that  has been tested in investing.   The theory states that you will buy something at an inflated price because you think there is a greater fool who will pay even more.  An example often given is the Dutch Tulip Craze that collapsed in February of 1637.

Looking at what is happening to the near vertical rise in bitcoins suggest the Greater Fool Theory is operating.  The collapse may have started.  when it does it does, the collapse is usually swift.  Somebody is going to get hurt.

I do not participate in this bitcoin craze.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

BULLY PULPIT?

Sometime back I coined the phrase "BULLY IN THE CHINA SHOP" *  Since then, others have independently come up with the phrase, too.  This morning on Morning Joe, Richard Haass, or was it Jon Meacham?, coined the phrase BULLY IN THE PULPIT.  Wish I'd thought of that.

On Googling who said the phrase first, Edward Luce seems to be the first, using it as his title in his article "Donald Trump: The Bully In Americas Pulpit." (The Financial Times, Feb. 5, 2017).

* (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/01/bully-in-china-shop.html)

WE PASSED A BILL TO SEE WHAT IS IN IT

Earlier this month, I published a piece WE NEED TO PASS THE BILL TO FIND OUT WHAT'S IN IT (Dec. 1st).  The bill is now passed and President Trump has a chance to redeem himself and veto the bill, but I will be amazed if he does it though he has not signed it yet.  So now we will have the opportunity to find out what is in the 1,079 page bill!

Actually, the Republicans are relatively brief in writing this lengthy bill.  The Democrats on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (shortened to ACA) came in at 1990 pages.

Though this tax cut bill is said to be the biggest ever, Steve Rattner  says it is only the 7th largest.*

* http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/steve-rattner-breaks-down-gop-tax-bill-1122349123691

A WALL YOU CAN SEE THROUGH?

In today's conference to celebrate passage of the Republican tax cut bill, President Trump spoke of many things other than the tax cut.  One was that the agents on our southern border with Mexico would like a wall you can see through.  I thought a wall you can see through is called a ... fence?

AL FRANKEN: SECOND THOUGHTS

  I thought that Al Franken gave a classy goodbye speech from the Senate in response to sexual misconduct allegations.*  Then I read Peggy Noonan’s article in the WSJ where she used her considerable intellectual skills to trash the whole thing.**

   Noonan did grant that the groping of the sleeping woman, Leeann Tweeden, in a helmet and flack jacket might be simulated.  Clearly in the picture, Franken’s left hand was not close to touching her.  I thought it was kind of funny.  After all, groping a woman in a flack jacket would be like groping a wall.  But I guess this is the type of things that, if you have to explain it, you might as well not bother.

   Thirty-six women from Saturday Night Live signed a letter including the passage: “That is why we are moved to quickly and directly affirm that after years of working with him, .... not one of us ever experienced any inappropriate behavior; and mention our sincere appreciation that he treated us with the utmost respect and regard.”  Some female Senate staffers have made similar statements.***

   Franken immediately volunteered for an ethics committee investigation and profusely apologized to Ms. Tweeden, who accepted his apology.  Of the women who accused Franken of sexual harassment, I only recall one that he said was “categorically not true.”  About some others, he said he remembered events differently.  One woman, who wanted her picture taken with him, accused him of pinching skin above her hip.  But Franken was not allowed to have his day in court.  Like they said in the wild west, “Do we hang him now, or wait ‘til after the trial and hang him then?”

   Now, a few male Senators have come out to say that Franken was , well, railroaded, and they wish he wouldn't retire,**** but it seems he has not changed his mind.  I agree that he shouldn't renege.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/sen-al-franken-etc.html
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/16/16665830/al-franken-sexual-assault-allegations
** https://www.wsj.com/articles/al-franken-departs-without-grace-1512691869
*** http://time.com/5033572/saturday-night-live-women-alumni-al-franken/
**** https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/12/democrats-are-second-guessing-the-al-franken-precedent

CONSTRUCTION SPENDING INCREASES AGAIN

CNBC reports that the ISM index for manufacturing remains high though lower than the moneth before:

The Institute for Supply Management's index registered 58.7 in October, slightly better than the 58.6 expected from economists polled by Reuters. That represents a decline from September's 59.8, which was the highest reading for the service sector index since August 2005, according to ISM.

Construction Spending:
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly rose in September as a surge in public construction outlays offset the third straight monthly decline in investment in private projects.
...............................................................

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that construction spending increased 0.3 percent to $1.22 trillion. But August's construction outlays were revised down to show a 0.1 percent gain instead of the previously reported 0.5 percent rise.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending unchanged in September. Construction spending increased 2.0 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Although public spending has risen, industrial spending has yet to rise.  Industrial spending has been the biggest drag on GDP.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/15/us-industrial-production-nov-2017.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/01/october-ism-nonmanufacturing-index-september-construction-spending.html

LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION: BLUE VS RED STATES

Some insights are emerging as to why certain people are so angry at our government (Wall Street Journal).  Job prospects in red states seem to be poorer than in blue states where labor force participation is increasing, at least temporarily.*

Labor force participation in blue states was 62.4% last December (2016) whereas it rose to 63.9% in September (2017).  The figures for red states were 62.1% last December and 62.0% in September.   The participation rate in red states is, however, still above the low of 61.9% in September of 2016.  For red states there was a peak in between the two dates where red states hit 62.6% in April (2017), but since then has collapsed (see figure).

Why is this so?  The WSJ reports that:
Though the labor market has grown robustly nationwide this year, progress has been uneven across blue states and red states. An increasing number of people in red states have stopped looking for work, while a larger share of people in blue states are actively in the workforce.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

“It’s industrial composition. [Red states] are heavy in industries that are downsizing and automating where prospects just look bad,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist at IIF. “The [overall] job market is skewing toward high-value-added jobs.”*

* https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/11/28/why-are-people-in-red-states-dropping-out-of-the-labor-force/?mod=djemRTE_h

THE DAY HELL FROZE OVER

Mercy Be, but Democrat Doug Jones eked out a victory over a dreadful opponent, Roy Moore, in the Alabama Senatorial race.  He had over 20,000 votes to spare out of something like 1.7 million votes cast.  We can thank the African Americans for this result as they turned out like in 2008 for Obama and the Black women voted 98% for Jones.  All African Americans (men and women) totaled 96% for Jones and also totaled 29% of the votes cast.

Something not mentioned much, but Jones prosecuted two of the killers of the four young African American girls in the church in Birmingham (September 15, 1963) which was something for Blacks to hang their hat on.

But the white vote was not reassuring with over 65% of the white women voting for unbelievably bad  pedophile Roy Moore and 78% of the White men!  But we owe a lot to the Whites that stayed home and didn't vote (The turnout was said to be small.).  Also I just had a feeling that if 2% of the voters wrote in names for their vote, that Jones would have a chance, and that turned out to be correct.

Only a couple of Moore's incredible stances was his romanticized feelings about the age of slavery plus he opposed the Constitutional amendments after the 10th:   In response to a question from one of the only African Americans in the audience — who asked when Moore thought America was last "great" -- Moore acknowledged the nation's history of racial divisions, but said: "I think it was great at the time when families were united — even though we had slavery — they cared for one another…. Our families were strong, our country had a direction."*
.......................................................................
Abolishing the amendments after the 10th amendment would abolish slavery (13th Amendment), prohibited denial of right to vote by race (15th Amendment) as well as the right to vote for women (19th Amendment).**
I could go on.

* http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/08/politics/roy-moore-slavery/index.html
** http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/report_roy_moore_quoted_hitler.html

DON'T BE FOOLED BY THE CONGRESS'S TAX PLAN

You will see in print and hear on TV various comments on all the wonderful things companies will do with congress's tax plan.  Don't be fooled as no one knows what will happen.

Here are some guesses by a group of CFOs as to what will happen.:

While nearly half of CFOs who responded remain unsure about how the passage of tax reform would play out for their companies in 2018, some are projecting immediate benefits.

More than 20 percent said tax reform will "most likely" lead to an increase in stock buybacks, followed by increased R&D spending and major M&A activity. A little more than 8 percent said tax reform would increase employee wages next year, while just over 4 percent said it is "most likely" to increase headcount.*  See the figure from the reference:*

The firm [CFRA] noted Apple held 94 percent of its $269 billion in cash balances overseas. CFRA predicts the company will repatriate as much as $200 billion back into the U.S. and use most of the proceeds to buy back stock.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Actually, many companies may decrease employment as they did after the repatriation of foreign profits in 2004.**  Notice from the figure more than 40% of the CFOs said they would buy back more stock if the 2017 tax-cut bill is enacted.  Not mentioned is the probability that companies will incrrese the executive's pay

Companies are rolling in money and don't need more to do any of the things shown in the figure.  If consumers get more money, they may pay down debt as households are "up to their eyeballs" in debt.  Household debt is at record levels.***  The wealthy probably will mostly buy Treasury bonds and foreign assets (chalets in Switzerlant, etc.).****

Don't be surprised if the results of the tax-cut bill are not anywhere as beneficial as is claimed.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/13/corporations-winner-in-tax-reform-not-the-middle-class-cfo-survey.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/14/here-are-25-companies-that-will-benefit-the-most-from-the-gop-tax-plan.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/tax-holiday-for-repatriation-of.html
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/household-debt-at-new-high.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html

JOBS: NOVEMBER 2017

CNBC has summarized a report on jobs growth in November from the Department of Labor.  I further summarize the CNBC report:

The education and health-care industry was the big employment-gain leader for the month. The government explained that much of those increases came from health care, which added roughly 25,000 jobs in ambulatory health-care services.

Monthly employment growth in health care averaged 24,000 thus far in 2017, compared with an average increase of 32,000 per month in 2016, according to the BLS.

"Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday in a release. "Employment growth has averaged 174,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 187,000 in 2016."

(Click on figure to enlarge)

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/heres-where-the-jobs-are--in-one-chart.html

IS LIFE BETTER TODAY THAN 50 YRS AGO?

It is nice to know that youth of the world are not as depressed as their parents and grandparents.  Below is a ranking given by CNBC* (source given at the bottom of the table and www.pewglobal.org) in order of the difference between the optimism of youth verses their seniors.  On this scale, youth scores 51% think life is better now than it was 50 yrs ago compared the their parents and grandparents.  But among the 8 countries listed, the youth of America are actually 6th in optimism after Sweden (most optimistic), Germany, UK,  Australia, and South Africa.

Not listed in the table below is Vietnam which Pew lists as the most optimistic of nations with 88% of the people saying life is better now than 50 yrs ago and more than 90% saying the economy is good.*  The U.S. does not rank among the most optimistic nations considering all people where only 37% of the people say Life is better and 41% say Life is worse now than it was 50 yrs ago.*

By the way, the worst country for views on Life is Venezuela where only 10% of the people think Life is better than it was 50 yrs ago and  72% think Life is worse.  Globally the figures are 43% better and 38% worse.  Note the figures do not total 100% so I suppose a group is not counted who say they do not know.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)
Highly educated are more optimisitic:
In about more than half the countries he surveyed, most prominently in places like Poland, Peru, the Netherlands and Spain, people with higher levels of education were more likely to say that life is currently better than 50 years, Poushter noted*.

Populists tend to be depressed:
For example, Germans who support the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) are 28 percentage points more likely to say that life is worse off for people like them than those who have an unfavorable view of the anti-immigrant party. This pattern also holds in Sweden among supporters of the Swedish Democrats, in France among those with a favorable view of National Front, in the Netherlands among PVV supporters and in the UK among fans of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).**

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/the-top-8-countries-where-millennials-are-most-optimistic.html
** http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/12/05/worldwide-people-divided-on-whether-life-today-is-better-than-in-the-past/

BEAR'S EARS AND GRAND STAIRCASE-ESCALANTE NATIONAL MONUMENTS

President Trump has issued an Executive Order vastly reducing the size of Bear's Ears (designated by President Obama) and Grand Staircase-Escalante  National Monuments

On December 4, 2017, Trump reduced the size of the [Bear's Ears] monument by about 1.3 million acres (85%). Trump shrank another national monument, Grand Staircase-Escalante [about 46%], on the same day*.  See the figure below:**

He said that U.S. territory should be governed by local people and not by a few people  in Washington (e.g. the national government).  A problem with that argument is that the land is owned by the U.S. Government or, in other words, the American people.  While the local inhabitants are a part of the American people, they are only a small part of the entire American people.  Therefore it seems to me that the people's land should be administered by the people's representative which is the Federal government..

Existing rights are not effected.  If you already had grazing rights on the land, it will continue.  I urge you to read the entire fact sheet.***

The national monument designation does not alter or affect valid existing rights of any party and will not impact the operation, maintenance, replacements or modification of existing utilities, pipelines or telecommunications, as long as they are consistent with the care and management of the objects identified in the national monument proclamation. A mineral resource assessment is made prior to designation of Federal land as a wilderness or monument status.  See below for mineral resource information on Bear's Ears National Monument.***
.............................................................
Yes. Currently, livestock grazing occurs throughout most of the monument area including nine active Forest Service allotments. Existing laws, regulations and policies followed by the Forest Service and BLM in issuing and administering grazing permits or leases shall continue to apply to ensure ongoing consistency with the monument. Likewise, timber management, including for purposes of restoration and forest health, will continue pursuant to existing laws, regulations and policies, consistent with the proper care and management of the national monument. ***


Specifically, 11 “wilderness study areas” in the Bears Ears region prohibit most motorized travel, construction of new roads and development of oil, gas or coal. These wilderness study areas include many of the region’s iconic locations: Cedar Mesa, Mancos Mesa and Cheese Box Canyon, to name a few. The region is also home to the Dark Canyon Wilderness, designated by Congress in 1984 and completely protected from motorized travel or natural resource extraction. Farther south lies the famed Valley of the Gods, federally preserved as an “area of critical environmental concern” to ensure the integrity of beautiful scenic vistas.****
............................................................
Fact: Mineral resources beneath Bears Ears are scarce. There is no developable oil and gas. The region’s nonrenewable resources, including uranium near the Daneros Mine, were actually outside the expansive monument boundaries declared by Obama. The integrity of the Bears Ears landscape, long kept intact before the creation of the monument, will almost certainly remain intact after Trump’s announcement. And to ensure this going forward, the state of Utah is asking for congressional legislation that will exclude the region from mineral extraction.****

In contrast, there do appear to be mineral resources in the Grand Staircase-Escalante  National Monument was designated by Bill Clinton, including coal on school lands.  It was promised that other lands for school benefit will be found elsewhere.***

As I don't know the details of how many of the Indian artifacts will be in the removed area, I cannot make an assessment and will leave it to others.  I don't know how destruction or looting of Indian artifacts will be enhanced by removal of the area from the monument.  In both cases it is against the law.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bears_Ears_National_Monument
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2017/12/05/the-energy-202-trump-says-his-bears-ears-decision-isn-t-controversial-but-he-s-wrong/5a25a7ce30fb0469e883f9e1/?utm_term=.6d977b113e41
*** https://www.fs.fed.us/sites/default/files/bear-ears-fact-sheet.pdf
**** https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865693641/Gary-Herbert-5-myths-about-Bears-Ears.html

HAPPINESS AND TAXES

Since taxes are a big topic of the day in the U.S., it may come as a surprise that the happiest countries in the world have rather high taxes, much higher then the U.S.

According to the United Nations' latest World Happiness Report, as covered by CBS News, the top 10 happiest countries are:*

1. Norway
2. Denmark
3. Iceland
4. Switzerland
5. Finland
6. Netherlands
7. Canada
8. New Zealand
9. Australia
10. Sweden

..............................................................
As of 2014, in terms of total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP and measured per capita, Norway came in at No. 2 out of 35 countries ($37,682 USD), Denmark at No. 3 ($30,630 USD), and Iceland came in at No. 9 ($20,418 USD), according to the OECD.*
................................................................

Unlike Americans, however, residents of New Zealand 

enjoy the protection of a robust welfare state including 

a public health system, 18 weeks of subsidized parental

 leave and benefits for middle- and low-income families 

with young children.

The U.S. ranks No. 14 for happiness, significantly lower 
than its neighbor to the north, Canada.*

Ow is the ranking of happiness done?
All of the top four countries rank highly on all the main factors found to support happiness: caring, freedom, generosity, honesty, health, income and good governance.
.....................................................................
All of the other countries in the top ten also have high values in all six of the key variables used to explain happiness differences among countries and through time – income, healthy life expectancy, having someone to count on in times of trouble, generosity, freedom and trust, with the latter measured by the absence of corruption in business and government.**


Perhaps if happiness is a goal, we in the U.S. should think of how we can afford these things that other countries have rather than try to get rid of what we have.   But then, maybe happiness is not our goal.  Maybe it is just a constant pursuit of happiness a la the constitution and not achieving it.

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/09/the-happiest-countries-in-the-world-also-pay-a-lot-in-taxes.html
** http://worldhappiness.report/ed/2017/

WE NEED TO PASS THE BILL TO FIND OUT WHAT'S IN IT

Haven't we heard this before that "We Need To Pass The Bill To Find Out What's In It?"  Nancy Pelosi famously said this about the lumbering ACA Healthcare bill.  That bill was broadly discussed repeatedly, amended, etc. in regular order.  In contrast, the current tax cut bill has been rapidly thrown together and it seems it will be passed without discussion.

It is a matter of faith among Republicans that tax cuts pay for themselves in spite of all the contrary evidence.  In a recent report of the JCT that the tax cuts will only pay about a third of themselves (a figure I think is optimistic), Republican Larry Lindsay (former adviser to George W. Bush) has said that the JCT claim is a fraud.*

Republicans point to the tax cuts of Jack Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and George W. Bush as examples, but (1) these presidents never came close to balancing the budget, and (2) these tax cuts were done during recessions (on top of Federal deficits) when the cuts might have some significant positive effects.  In contrast, now we have a roaring economy. the stock market indices are setting new highs weekly, and we are near full employment.  But Republicans will fall into line.

Thus this tax cut bill and repatriation of off shore profits by companies is throwing gasoline on the fire.**

Still, CFOs are confident that the bill's reforms will have a positive impact on U.S. economic conditions. In addition, 70.9 percent agree (29.2 percent strongly) that corporate tax reforms will create more U.S. jobs, while 83.3 percent agree (20.8 percent strongly) that corporate tax reforms will stimulate U.S. economic growth.***
I find it hard to believe these CFOs are being honest because their companies are rolling in money and could be doing all these things now.  They do, however, have a different view on what will be done with repatriated funds.

At any rate, it has been pointed out that raising the corporate maximum tax rate to 25% instead of 20% would solve the JCT problem.   I have written that I think lowering the rate from 35% to 25% is worth a try to see what happens.****

With regard to the repatriation of overseas profits, only 12.5% of the CFOs canvassed indicated they will bring all overseas profits back home.***

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Asked what they would do with the repatriated funds, 29.2 percent say they would buy back stock, the most popular response. The percentage of those who use overseas cash to invest in new plants, equipment or technology: 20.8 percent, compared to 12.5 percent who would raise dividends. Only 8.3 percent plan to use repatriated cash to increase headcount.***

Note: As others have said, if we allow companies to bring back profits at especially reduced rates every 10-15 yrs, isn't that an incentive to merge with  overseas companies?
The tax breaks for bringing home such offshore profits “confirm the central tenet of tax planning that a tax deferred is a tax avoided,” said David Miller, a tax lawyer at Proskauer Rose. “For decades, U.S. multinationals have shifted profits abroad and deferred their taxes on them. If either of the tax bills pass, they will be rewarded for doing so."(https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/business/taxes-offshore-repatriation.html?_r=0)

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/01/bush-tax-cut-architect-dismisses-jct-scoring-of-the-senate-tax-bill-a-fraud.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/pouring-gasoline-on-fire.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/22/cfos-say-corporate-tax-reform-will-create-jobs-but-may-not-help-wages.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html

POURING GASOLINE ON THE FIRE

There seems to be optimism that the tax plan considered by the Senate will be approved.  I don't know about you, but I am one of those that will come out thousands of dollars behind in the Senate version.  Perhaps my problem (healthcare deduction) will be removed in Conference Committee.  I can hope, can't I?

Well on this news, the stock market is going crazy today (so far).  The attempt in this tax plan is to give corporations even more money when they are rolling in money as it is.  They have been told that about a third of the corporations will actually improve their plants and hire workers (and give raises?).  Most corporations have said that they will mainly buy back stock, do some mergers and acquisitions (M&A), boost dividends, and maybe reduce debt.

Major companies including Cisco Systems Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Coca-Cola Co. say they’ll turn over most gains from proposed corporate tax cuts to their shareholders, *
................................................................... 
Robert Bradway, chief executive of Amgen Inc., said in an Oct. 25 earnings call that the company has been “actively returning capital in the form of growing dividend and buyback and I’d expect us to continue that.” Executives including Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey, Pfizer Chief Financial Officer Frank D’Amelio and Cisco CFO Kelly Kramer have recently made similar statements.

“We’ll be able to get much more aggressive on the share buyback” after a tax cut, Kramer said in a Nov. 16 interview.

Yet congress proceeds as if they feel what these companies are telling them is false and that companies actually will increase plant and employees and maybe increase wages.

Meanwhile, the stock market rises like a roaring fire (also called a bubble).  I have started to put floors on some of my stocks like 3M that are up 50% this year.  Remember the saying, "Buy on the rumor and sell on the news."  When the bill is actually passed, watch out.

Incidentally, a lot of bills die in Conference Committee, though I doubt this one will.  It may look quite a bit different from what either the House or the Senate approved, however.

Repatriated Overseas Profits A part of the bill regards a tax holiday for repatriated profits from overseas.  when this was done before in 2004, over 90 of the money went to stock buybacks.**   Repatriation of profits might even slow the economy"
Kleinbard  [Edward Kleinbard, professor at the University of Southern California's Gould School of Law.] notes that the Republican bill leaves one thing conspicuously unchanged: "A U.S. multinational looking to build a factory to serve foreign customers and choosing between a U.S. and low-taxed foreign location will still have a big incentive to locate that business abroad."***
...................................................................

 [Clausing at Reed College suggests that] Unemployment is at a 16-year low of 4.2 percent. Economic growth has come in at a healthy annual rate of 3 percent or better in each of the past two quarters. If the tax bill managed to heat the economy much more, the Federal Reserve might have to accelerate its pace of interest rate increases to cool things off.

That would make loans costlier for individuals and businesses and might slow the economy.***

* https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-29/trump-s-tax-promises-undercut-by-ceo-plans-to-reward-investors
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/tax-holiday-for-repatriation-of.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html
*** https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-tax-plan-repatriate-offshore-profits-may-not-work/

"PURE AS THE DRIVEN SNOW"

"Pure As The Driven Snow" is a phrase that has been around since the 1500s, but not used much anymore.   It means very pure, i.e., sinless It probably will be coming back, however.  Nancy Pellosi says there should be zero tolerance for sexual improprieties.  In other words people, principally men, should be pure as the driven snow.  To apply this retroactively will be Armageddon for men.  I doubt you will find many men as pure as the driven snow.

For what it's worth, I don't recall my mother ever having conversations with me about the ways to treat women.  She definitely worried that some woman would get her clutches on me and marry me ending my educational career prematurely.  That I heard many times.  I also took a course in manners at the age of 12 where quite a bit of time was spent on the proper way to shake hands with a woman.

I thought that the big subject right now is Judge Roy Moore who is running for interim Senator from Alabama for two years who is accused of improper advances to teenage girls when he was in his early 30s.  I had thought that if he had shown contrition rather than saying all the stories were false, and said something like, "I saw the evil in my ways and reformed many years ago," that he would have disposed of the problem. Now I am not so sure.

I'm sure we are just seeing the tip of the iceberg, but for the current record on notables accused of sexual harassment , NBC has published a list.**  Note that not all those on the list involve men and women, but a couple are men and men.

Al Franken repeatedly has shown  contrition for seemingly putting his hand on women's bottom in taken a picture  together.  But it is turning out that he can't show contrition enough as he repeatedly apologizes for past actions and says he will be more careful.  Also I wonder how many women told him to get his hand off my butt (or equivalent) or just walked away?  It seems some women equate a man putting his hand on her butt is the equivalent to rape.  Apparently former President H.W. bush is also accused of putting his hands on women's bottoms.

I don't know that I ever put my hand on a woman's posterior, but I may have, perhaps as a joke to get a rise out of her.  I do recall slapping the behind of a girl I knew well  when I was in high school.  I did it for no particular reason except that she was bending over to look at something.  I remember doing this particular thing, because is was so not like me.

It seemed to me that things really started to heat up with the accusations against men in Venture Capital firms inducing women to "visit the casting couch" in order to get aid for their company 's start**  Of course things really exploded with Harvey Weinstein use of the "casting couch" tor women to get acting jobs.  Though Weinstein was a prominent Democrat, Republicans got into the act as well  e.g. Roger Ailes and Bill O'Reilly of Fox News.  Trials of Bill Cosby have been going on for years over shockingly drugging women to have sex.

I have to admit that I dearly miss both Charley Rose and Mark Halpeirn.  Charley Rose seems to be known among women for exposing his, um, equipment upon getting out of the shower.  I guess he was very proud of it, but it is a seerious charge (I once was on a jury of a man accused of "indecent exposure with lascivious intent.").  I watched his midnight show on TV almost every weekday.  It is not replaced although I believe NBR is trying to. (Oprah was apparently invited, for example).  Halperin, my favorite political reporter, is accused of making unwanted sexual advances to women when he was with ABC News.  Both these men have apologized for their very serious actions, but no matter.

Note: As this item was going to press, I heard that a principal at  NBC News Matt Lauer  (Co-host of the TV Today show)has been dismissed on charges of sexual harassment.  Quite a few people have said they are heart broken over this announcement, including a number of women like NBC Savannah Guthrie, who says she is very surprised and heartbroken.  Hoda Kolb also of NBC Today show also expressed her surprise and said she has known Lauer for 15 yrs.  As of this moment Lauer has not made a comment.  Before the day is over, Garrison Keillor is also added to the list of predators.

So maybe Roy Moore and Donald Trump are right that it is better to deny accusations than to be contrite.  Up to now, there is little to support that sexual improprieties effect political  campaigns.  We will see if things are changing in two weeks and see if Moore survives his widely accepted inappropriate harassment accusations with teenagers.

* https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/harvey-weinstein-scandal/weinstein-here-s-growing-list-men-accused-sexual-misconduct-n816546
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/women-entrepeneur-harrassment.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/07/women-entrepeneur-harassment-ii.html

GDP AND THE FED 2017 UP TO 3rd QUARTER

A recent CNBC post contains a figure showing the GDP vs the year.  I found it instructive and reproduce it below and reproduce a similar figure from Tableau using information from BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) updated to include the 3rd quarter of 2017.*  To remind us, GDP is a spending metric composed of personal consumption, business spending, Government spending, and net exports.**

Net exports have been negative since, I believe, 1977 so that it  always is a drag on the GDP.

But first, GDP can be complicated as not all spending is counted.  A LOT of spending can go on that isn't counted.  For example on business spending:
Business investment includes purchases that companies make to produce consumer goods. But, not every purchase is counted. If a purchase only replaces an existing item, then it doesn't add to GDP and isn't counted. Purchases must go toward creating new consumer goods to be counted.**
So a lot of equipment replacement spending could be going on, and it would not be reflected in the GDP.
..................................................................
Fixed investment also includes residential construction, which includes new single-family homes, condos and townhouses. Just like commercial real estate  the BEA  doesn't count housing resales as fixed investments.**
So a lot of existing home sales could be going on, and they would not be reflected in the GDP.  In fact, there is a shortage of new homes now.
...................................................................
The example of government spending includes state and local governments as well as the Federal government:
Government spending [has decreased also putting a drag on the GDP] was $3.27 trillion in 2016. That's 18 percent of total GDP.  It's less than the 19 percent it contributed in 2006. In other words, the government was spending more when the economy was booming before the recession. That's exactly when it should have been spending less to cool things off**.
I think state and local government spending has not fully recovered since the Great Recession.  Federal spending has been hampered by the sequester.

For more details, see the reference.  The figure on GDP by quarter is given below:

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Here is the table from the reference.**  I had to piece the table together in two pieces and apologize that they don't fit in perfect vertical alignment.

(Click on table to enlarge)

* https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/24/the-fed-launched-qe-nine-years-ago--these-four-charts-show-its-impact.html
https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdphighlights.pdf
** https://www.thebalance.com/components-of-gdp-explanation-formula-and-chart-3306015
***

MY POSTS AND CORPORATE TAX CUTS - II

For awhile I thought that my average page views on items in this blog had risen into the 30-40 range, but this may not be true.  I've been writing this blog for 8 yrs now and haven't the slightest idea why some of my posts will get hundreds of page views and others less than 20.

For example, I think my post Corporate Tax Cuts; Unintended Consequences was one of the most important I have written (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/corporate-taxes-cuts-unintended.html).  It has gotten 61 page views which is nice, but why isn't this one of my posts that has gotten in the hundreds of page views?

For example I point out in Corporate Tax Cuts that, if we lower our corporate tax cuts, there is nothing to prevent other countries from lowering theirs.  So far as I know, no one else has mentioned this possibility.  There was a time when I attended a lot of congressional hearings, and I was quite impressed by the general intelligence of Senators (but not so much Representative).  I can't believe that they haven't thought of this possibility.  Are we being lied to?

There is something weird with our Republican political leaders.  It appears that Gary Cohn, the top economic adviser, feels there is some direct relationship between corporate  tax cuts and increasing investments:

President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, Gary Cohn, looked out from the stage at a sea of CEOs and top executives in the audience Tuesday for The Wall Street Journal's CEO Council meeting. As Cohn sat comfortably on stage, a Journal editor asked the crowd to raise their hands if their company plans to invest more if the tax reform bill passes.

Very few hands went up.

Cohn looked surprised. "Why aren't the other hands up?" he said.*

Was Cohn faking his surprise at the lack of corporate interest in more investing by corporations with a decrease in corporate tax rates?  Do they really not realize that we are in a very good economy, that companies are supplying our needs with current plant and equipment, with current employment, and at current wages?  Do they not realize that corporations are rolling in money and could well expand if they thought the expansion would bring more business?

I am not alone in saying that corporations are likely in this economic environment to buy back stock and increase executive rewards as they did in the 2004 tax holiday for repatriating foreign profits. and maybe give a special dividend or raise their dividend.  Surely congress and the administration know this.

There are those who say the stock market will crash if we don't have a big tax reduction for business and the wealthy.  Companies are making excellent profits in recent years and the wealthy have done extremely well.

I'm cynical enough to think the whole reason for doing these tax cuts is to take money away from Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps and the like:
The G.O.P. budget would cut $5 trillion in spending over the next 10 years, with a trillion of those dollars coming from the Medicaid program and half a trillion from Medicare. (“Entitlements” like housing assistance and food stamps wouldn’t fare much better.) Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s budget would increase to $620 billion.**

That GDP has been under 3% for most of the post Great Recession years, is pointed to, to say we are in a slow economy.  But GDP is a spending metric.  One reason that GDP isn't higher is that corporations are not spending, but hoarding their profits and buying back stock.  Certainly the consumer is doing their part and household debt is at record highs.***

I certainly will be very, very surprised if the tax cut and tax holiday on repatriated profits result in much increase in the economy.  Also as I pointed out long ago, tax cuts for individuals is an inefficient way of stimulating the economy.****

* http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-trump-tax-plan-corporate-investment-20171115-story.html
** https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/10/republicans-propose-slashing-medicaid-to-pay-for-tax-cuts
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/household-debt-at-new-high.html
**** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html

HUMAN BEINGS AND SEX

Numerous reports are accumulating on men with super aggressive sexual behavior, something that does not surprise me.  The initial thought is that men with super aggressive behavior have unusually high levels of testosterone; however that is too simplistic as studies have found that many men with very high levels of testosterone are not violent or sex offenders.  There is also some indication that child molestors tend to have low testosterone.

Yes, it seems reasonable that  social behavior can be inhibited through civilizing forces.  Then it can also be true that certain drugs, like alcohol, can lower those inhibitions.

So what is it that drives sexual predators like Bill Cosby, Harvey Winestein, Ray Moore and Donald Trump, among many, many others?  Whatever it is, is very common as many men (and some women) show aggressive sexual behavior.

There seems to be no one answer, but to some extent it may be learned.

Jack and Ted Kennedy may not have been sexual predators but they certainly weren't monogamous.   They had "IT" (personality as well as being rich and famous) as I like to say, and many women were quite willing to have sex with them.   Then there is the case of Bill Clinton who was not rich, but of a certain fame and personality who was also promiscuous. They may have learned some of their sexual promiscuity from their fathers.  Yet they weren't polygamous.  They were so used to having compliant females that they may have had forcible sex on occasion which was inexcusable.

If you are serious about wanting to understand aggressive sexual behavior, below are listed some references.*  In this technological age, it is not surprising, I guess, that even robots get into the sex act.**

Women also have testosterone but at much lower levels than men.  In the Olympics, there are a number of tests a woman must obey to be classed as a qualified athlete beyond having a vagina.  One is the level of their testosterone.  If is too high they are disqualified.

* https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/191b/1515db4f27e4c736a476542934ad2e01698d.pdf
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/191b/1515db4f27e4c736a476542934ad2e01698d.pdf
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/insight-therapy/201204/why-do-we-have-sex
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNZmmdwZ5iY
https://www.shmoop.com/animal-behavior/common-mistakes.html
https://www.webmd.com/sex-relationships/guide/why-people-have-sex#3
** https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/732912/Sex-robot-human-sexual-pleasure-Real-doll

SEN. AL FRANKEN, ETC.

One of my favorite jokes was Republicans pull their shades and draw their drapes at night but probably don't need to.  Democrats don't pull their shades and draw their drapes at night but probably ought to.   But things have changed, and it turns out that Republicans are at least as sex crazed as Democrats, if not more so.

The joke was ruined during the call for impeachment of President Clinton by Idaho Republican Representative Helen Chenowith who, it turned out, had a 6 yr relationship with a married man.  The charge was led by Republican Representative Henry Hyde who had a 5 yr “youthful indiscretion" when he was in his 40s.  Of course these individuals found excuses claiming their cases were different.  The story continues.  When I turned 40 I thought I was middle aged.

Democrats are really bending over backward and going after former comedian and current Sen. Al Franken who 6 yrs ago had a picture taken in Afghanistan of a pretend grope (his hands weren't touching her) of a woman's breasts as she was napping while wearing a flack jacket.  Who would do such a grope?  It would be like groping a wall.  I think it was kind of funny, but it is the type of thing that, if you have to explain it, you might as well not bother.

At any rate Franken, the “groper,” has effusively apologized for the not-funny joke.  She also said he French kissed her without her permission which is more serious, but he has apologized for that too although he says he remembers the incident differently  The woman who brought up the incident has forgiven him, but certain Democrats say that is not enough as he has committed a crime.  Give me a break.  Well the woman involved has now got her revenge.  If it should turn out that Franken is expelled from the Senate, women will have lost a strong male advocate for women's rights.  That's the way these things go.

Personally IU think they should go after the "major league" sexual predators like Harvey Weinstein, Donald Trump and Judge Moore.

Why was the picture released anyway?  I wonder if someone was trying to blackmail him, but no matter.

I am certainly not a member of the current "hook up" generation.  In my day, the man-woman thing involved the giving of subtle hints.  As I have Asperger's Syndrome, I was never good at guessing what people were thinking.  When I thought I had a "hint" figured out, it turned out that I was wrong.

I probably never would have gotten married except I had people coach me.  On my first wife, there was a woman who was bound to get me married and a physicist graduate student who was not married.    They gave me some suggestions that I couldn't believe, but they worked.  On my second wife, I was coached by a woman I was interested in but who was "taken.  She too gave me some suggestions that I thought would be repelled, but they weren't, much to my surprise.

When my second wife died of a stroke, I was on my own.  There was a woman I was interested in who had a stroke and was learning to talk again.  I was trying to help her, and we became fond of each other.  Several times I did things that I thought had ruined our relationship, but I guess she was interested in me which helped getting over these faux pas.

Democrats are going after Bill Clinton* again and saying he should have resigned.  I feel that his case is quit different.  I don't understand it as the young woman came onto him so it was a consensual relationship as she admitted.  There was a hazard to his marriage, but it was a matter for his wife to decide.  There were those who were upset that Hillary didn't get a divorce., but the Clinton's worked it out  Whatever happened to "Until death do us part?"  I have covered all this before (See the references.).

But I feel there is something disturbing about women saying that it is immoral for a powerful man  to have an affair with a young woman of 22, even if she came onto him.  They talk about the young woman as if she is a child.  At what age are women grown up?   It's as if women have a fatal attraction for a powerful man?  Is that true?  Was my problem that I wasn't rich or famous (It aklso helps to be handsome.)?  If anyone told me that I was still a child at 22, I would have wanted to bust them in the nose.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2013/08/politicians-and-sex.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/05/monica-lewinsky-still-with-us.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/some-men-have-it-most-dont.html

HOUSEHOLD DEBT AT A NEW HIGH

Household debt hits its highest level and close to the high since the Great Recession (see figure).*  Thoughts are that it will even go higher.  Student loan debt spiked in 2012 and has yet to come down.  Delinquent debt on auto loans is increasing, but most other types of delinquent debt are decreasing (e.g. mortgages, home equity, etc).  Although credit card debt is at a high, delinquent credit card debt has fallen.*

(click on figure to enlarge)

I would think this says something about how much the economy can grow from here.

* https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-debt-reaches-new-record-as-some-delinquency-rates-rise-1510675253

TAX CUTS DO NOT PAY FOR THEMSELVES - II

Not long ago, I wrote about how corporate tax cuts are an inefficient way to stimulate the economy, using the 2004 "Tax Holiday" as an example when 81% of the repatriated money was used to buy back stock.*  Also I have shown why income tax cuts are an inefficient way to stimulate the economy.**

Now there is some confirmation by others from non-scientific polls that confirm that in this economic climate, any profits from business tax will not be used by many companies to increase investment in new facilities or increased employment.**

But at a gathering of chief executives hosted yesterday by the Wall Street Journal, business leaders called into question one of Cohn's top arguments for slashing the corporate tax rate to 20 percent.

When one of the Journal's editors asked the crowd if they planned to up their capital expenditure if the GOP's tax plan went through, only a smattering raised their hands.**

...........................................................................
There's little evidence to support the claim that tax breaks boost employment numbers.

A National Bureau of Economic Research study published in 2014  found "little evidence that corporate tax cuts boost economic activity" unless implemented in a recession.

Far from being short on cash, corporations are sitting on record amounts.***

Gary Cohn was said to be surprised at the response.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/11/tax-cuts-do-not-pay-for-themselves.html
** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/05/effectiveness-of-taxes.html
*** https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/15/ceos-raise-doubts-about-gary-cohns-top-argument-for-cutting-the-corporate-tax-rate-right-in-front-of-him.html

ROY MOORE: SINFUL DISTRICT ATTORNEY

Even before the latest revelations on Roy Moore, candidate for the U.S. Senate, I felt all slimy when reading about him.*   Afterward I wanted to take a shower. Now this "Holier Than Thou" sinner turns out to be a pedophile who dated  teenage girls when he was in his early 30s.

I suppose everyone has read about Moore's sexual encounter with a 14 yr old girl and three others age 16-18.  Now comes a very convincing account by a 5th woman who really nails him on an attempt to rape***  Moore says he doesn't know the woman and doesn't even know of the restaurant, but the woman has produced her high school yearbook where he writes a passage and signs it with Love, writing his name (including DA) and even mentions the restaurant.  You can even see a photo copy of the matter in the reference.****

There seem to be men who are not phased by Moore's pedophilia, but how can any woman vote for such a politician?  I don't know but many have before and not too long ago at that.

I think that if Roy Moore  came clean about his sexual fixation of teenage girls when he was in the 30s and asked for forgiveness as a sinner with regrets for his molestations long ago, he may have even gotten some understanding.  He should have taken the advice he wrote in a poem:

If we who are His children,
will humbly turn and pray;
Seek His holy face
and mend our evil way****

Roy Moor has been married for 32 yrs (m. 1985, 6 yrs aftersexual account with a 14 year old.) to wife Kayla, a former beauty queen, who is 14 yrs his younger.  They have two boys and two girls.  Their net worth is said to be about $2.5 million (https://starsinformer.com/kayla-moore/),  Kayla is alleged to find out how much the women have been paid to come out.  There is one phony story on the internet of payment.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2017/09/roy-moore-judge-who-doesnt-believe-in.html
** https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/woman-says-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-when-she-was-14-he-was-32/2017/11/09/1f495878-c293-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html?utm_term=.65197d475c7d
*** https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/us/politics/roy-moore-alabama-senate.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Moore
**** https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/13/us/politics/roy-moore-alabama-senate.html

THE WALL: DIRTY LITTLE SECRET

Our president is a great stand up comedian and attending his rallys was lots of fun.  One of his best jokes was "What are we going to do?"  and we would shout Build The Wall.  Then he would yell "And who is going to pay for The Wall?"  And we would scream "Mexico!"  It was very exhilarating.

Mexico, however, was afraid that a lot of Americans and the President might be serious so they kept saying, "We will never pay for the wall."  Eventually the cry became Mexico will eventually pay for the wall.  Finally the President admitted that Mexico wouldn't pay for the wall.  Heck!

But there is a dirty little secret we are not being told.  The biggest joke of all is, if The Wall is to be built, we will undoubtedly use concrete and. actually pay Mexico to build the wall to a great extent.  There are two reasons for this (at least).

One is that the largest company making Portland cement (used in concrete) in North America by nearly a factor of two is Cemex,* a Mexican company.  Furthermore they have operations in the right place, whereas the other large producers are mainly in the East and Midwest.

The second reason is that construction is booming right now so prices of concrete are high and available labor is short.  A home builder owned by Warren Buffet even has a school to train home construction workers.   So we will probably have to "import" Mexican construction workers to build most of the wall.  Times are good in Mexico, so even Mexican workers may not be readily available, but, for a price, maybe they will come.

So yes, if we build The Wall, we will actually pay Mexico to do it to a large extent.  The joke will be on us.

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cement_industry_in_the_United_States