Texas-refined gasoline fuels Mexican cars. Natural gas from Canada helps heat the Midwest and cool California. Electricity flows over the northern and southern U.S. borders in both directions.
The interconnections in the North American energy industry are huge and growing — and could grow even closer during the Trump administration unless it decides to alter the flow of a key U.S. export (and import) — at the border.
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"It's not so simple to say we're going to renegotiate the trade deals. We set up the system to create those inter-linkages. You just can't overnight legislate or executive order that away. If you try to do that, it's going to have negative economic impacts, not just for the economies on the border but for these specific industries, like energy," said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West.
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Perhaps one of the most surprising recent developments is the boom in U.S. natural gas that's flowing across the southern border, and the ambitious plans by the Mexican government to build more pipelines to take U.S. natural gas throughout Mexico and as far as Mexico City.
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Perhaps one of the most surprising recent developments is the boom in U.S. natural gas that's flowing across the southern border, and the ambitious plans by the Mexican government to build more pipelines to take U.S. natural gas throughout Mexico and as far as Mexico City.
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The energy picture changed dramatically for North America in the last decade. The push by the U.S. energy industry into hydraulic fracking and horizontal drilling unleashed an energy boom, making the U.S. the world's biggest producer of natural gas and placing it firmly among the top three oil producers.
That has changed the situation for all of North America, at a time when Mexico's oil and gas output was in decline and Canada found some of its potential oil output landlocked. The ties between the three countries go way back. In the early 1900s, the U.S. began sharing electricity with its neighbors, and Canada is now a significant net exporter of electricity to the U.S.
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Yuen said Canadian gas is still important to the U.S. West Coast, the Midwest and New England, in part because pipelines don't carry U.S. gas to those areas. Gas imports from Canada fluctuate based on weather, and can go from 5 to 7 billion cubic feet a day, he said.
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"This speaks to how extensive the energy cooperation is between these countries," said Yuen. "It's almost as if the borders aren't really there. If you look at Canada and the U.S., they are part of the same cross-border electricity reliability councils for some regions. … It's not just natural gas, it's power lines, hydroelectricity and those are long-standing agreements and trade.
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According to Citigroup, new cross-border pipeline capacity of 7 billion
cubic feet per day is expected to come on line by 2020, adding to the
current capacity of 6 to 7 billion cubic feet per day.
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Mexico, in fact, now imports almost as much natural gas from the U.S. as
it produces, and the U.S. in recent months has become a net exporter of
natural gas for the first time in a sustainable way.
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In 2015, the U.S. government granted Blackstone Group permission to
export electricity from the Frontera power plant in the Rio Grande
Valley to Mexico's newly opened electricity market this year. Mexican
customers pay nearly twice as much as U.S. customers do for the power.
"Mexico is building some renewable projects along the border and that power is going to the U.S.," said Alex Wood, DOE policy analyst.
"It really is becoming more and more integrated," said Wood of the North American market. "Virtually all of Canada's surplus oil goes to the United States. The United States is producing surplus crude oil. … It's refined and it goes to Mexico."
"Mexico is building some renewable projects along the border and that power is going to the U.S.," said Alex Wood, DOE policy analyst.
"It really is becoming more and more integrated," said Wood of the North American market. "Virtually all of Canada's surplus oil goes to the United States. The United States is producing surplus crude oil. … It's refined and it goes to Mexico."
* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/13/one-industry-will-keep-holding-north-america-together-no-matter-what-happens-to-nafta.html
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