ECONOMY AND EMPLOYMENT

There is an article from the WSJ that gives the state of the economy in 15 figures and you are encouraged to look at the entire article.* The economic expansion since the Great Recession is the 4th longest* and is projected to last for at least the next year. If this is true, then the expansion will overtake the 3rd longest expansion in about six months (see figure).  The expansion has been steady but slow when incorrectly compared with previous recessions.  The only proper comparison is with the Great Depression that was the only other collapse of the financial system in the last 100 yrs.   In this regard, the current expansion is quite good having almost recovered in only 8 years.

Normal recessions are due to a buildup of inventories.  When the inventories are worked down, the recovery is comparatively rapid.

(Click on figure to enlarge)

There is the mystery of the decrease in workforce participation that has nothing to do with the Great Recession as it started in 1997 during the best economic period of my life, the long "bubble" economy of the 1990s.

There is the problem of declining employment in American manufacturing (see figure) that is seen to occur in two major steps seeningly related to recessions.   Beginning in 2010 there seems to be a gentle rise in employment, however. Though this is oft attributed to off-shoring of American manufacturing to low wage countries, the big decline is actually msotly due to automation and the introduction of robots.   Even so, wages of workers in private industry and other private occupations began to increase during 2015 and have continued to increase during 2016.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

An encouraging sign is in the decline of  layoffs with September of 2016 hitting a record low.**
When Americans do leave a job, it’s overwhelmingly classified as a voluntary separation. Of course, some people quit jobs out of frustration or are pushed out. But on the whole, an increasing level of quits reflects labor market health.**

(click on figure to enlarge)

* http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/11/11/the-u-s-economy-president-donald-trump-will-inherit-in-11-charts/?mod=djemRTE_h
** http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/11/08/the-u-s-layoff-rate-fell-to-a-record-low-in-september-but-hiring-also-declined/?mod=djemRTE_h3