WHO GETS THE LIBERTARIAN VOTE?

My take is that the Libertarian Party will mainly take votes from Hillary Clinton.

The reason is that Republicans are not social libertarians, far from it.  They want to control what we can or can't do in our bedrooms and really want men to control women's lives.  They also seem to want to return to the days of Jim Crow for African Americans.  Furthermore, Republicans have become a religious party and want to use religion to be free to discriminate against various people.  So I can't see them going libertarian.

Democrats, however, are close to being social libertarians, and I think the idea of fiscal responsibility is not offensive to them.  So Democrats are closer to being libertarians though the Democrats value of regulations on industry is probably offensive to Libertarians.  On the other hand, Democrats seem to be against free trade.

The above said, Libertarians have tended to side with the Republican Party (e.g. Ron and Rand Paul, etc.) perhaps because of the Republican ideal of small government in spite of being socially regressive.  I am unsure just how many Libertarians are in the Republican Party, but certainly not a controlling number.  Still they are the wild card in this current political mess because I can't see a Libertarian being at ease with the Republican social repressions.

Like Republicans, Libertarians are anti-labor in that they actually favor the wealthy by giving them free reign whereas Democrats are pro-labor and want some control over the influence of the wealthy.  The reason, however, that so many white laborers are Republicans is that they think the Democrats over-favor women, minorities, and homosexuals.  Their hope is that the Republicans will keep "them" in their place.  Republicans have convinced labor to disarm and reject unions with the result that their incomes have declined for over several decades.  The Golden Age of American labor is over, and I don't see either party having a solution to this decline.

U.S. HOUSEHOLD DEBT NEARS RECORD HIGH

U.S. households are loading up with debt again.  It seems to me that this shows a kind of optimism (perhaps foolhardy so); yet many people are politically so mad.  Nearly everything I read about the economy seems good so I don't understand the anger.  Companies are making profits, but down from what they were a couple years ago, but things look good enough that the Fed probably will increase short-term rates another notch next month.  Jobs are plentiful and many go begging.

U.S. households owed $12.25 trillion at the end of the first quarter, up 1.1% from the end of 2015, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, released Tuesday. If the first quarter repeats itself through the end of the year, U.S. household debt will approach its peak of $12.68 trillion, which it hit in the third quarter of 2008.*

Item added June 2, 2016: Home flipping is creating a home-price pressure cooker.**

* http://www.wsj.com/articles/trillions-in-debtbut-for-now-no-reason-to-worry-1464191555
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/02/house-flipping-heats-up-creating-home-price-pressure-cooker.html

OIL FOR ASIA?

As we Americans won't permit the Keystone XL pipeline to be built in the U.S., the oil sands oil probably will go to Canada's West Coast for shipments elsewhere, including Asia.

KINDER MORGAN OIL-PIPELINE EXPANSION GETS CANADA BACKING

Kinder Morgan Inc.’s proposed expansion of a crude oil pipeline connecting Alberta’s oil sands to the Canadian Pacific coast cleared a key hurdle after a government advisory panel recommended it, Chester Dawson reports. But the support for the Trans Mountain pipeline is subject to 157 conditions.

The proposed 5.4 billion Canadian dollar ($4.1 billion) project involves nearly tripling the capacity of an existing pipeline. The  energy industry has lobbied hard for the expansion and has argued it is necessary to allow more of Alberta's oil sands oil to reach  global markets.

“The board found the benefits of the project would outweigh the residual burdens” on the environment and nearby communities, said Robert Steedman, chief environmental officer for the National Energy Board.

Still, shareholders concerned about the environment are increasingly challenging major oil companies, the Economist reports.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/kinder-morgan-pipeline-expansion-project-gets-backing-in-canada-1463693878

HOME SHORTAGE

Looks like the economy is heating up and could be better if only there were more new homes for sale.

New home sales hit 619,000 in April, CNBC's  Diana Olick reports the latest about new home sales and how things look weird;

The usually strong spring housing market could be far stronger this year, if only there were more homes for sale.
The number of listings continues to drop, as demand outstrips supply and potential sellers bow out, fearing they won't be able to find something else to buy.
The inventory of homes for sale nationally in April was 3.6 percent lower than in April 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors. Redfin, a real estate brokerage, also recently reported a drop in new listings.

The supply numbers are even tighter in certain local markets: Inventory is down 32 percent in Portland, Oregon, from a year ago; down 22 percent in Kansas City; down 21 percent in Dallas and Seattle; down 17 percent in Charlotte, North Carolina; down 12 percent in Atlanta.......
...........................................................................
The inventory drops are most severe in the lower-priced tier of the market. Homes in the top tier are seeing gains and therefore show more price cuts. Sixteen percent of top-tier homes had a price cut over the past year, compared with 11 percent of bottom-tier homes and 13 percent of middle-tier, according to Zillow*

There are also reports of shortages of construction labor; however, other reports dispute this.  In a report by Goldman Saks on labor shortages it is reported that:**
Home construction weakened in March, and homebuilder sentiment hasn't budged in three months — all this in the heart of the historically strong spring housing market. The common complaint from builders is that they are hamstrung by a lack of skilled labor, which is keeping production levels low.
That may have been a factor for the past several years, but today it is less and less a plausible excuse.
.............................................................................
Instead they point to delays in permit issuing and land scarcity. A survey of 100 builders nationwide by John Burns Real Estate Consulting backs that thesis. They asked about costs that didn't exist 10 years ago, and found high levels of builder frustration, not just from labor, but from cost overruns stemming from new regulations for house erosion control, energy codes and fire sprinklers. They also cited understaffed planning and permit offices as well as utility company delays.
 ............................................................................
Builders are also seeing a shortage of buildable lots, as demand persists for land closest to urban areas. Those lots come at a premium, which makes it harder for builders to see profit on them. Development of infrastructure for land also slowed dramatically during the recession and is only now starting to ramp up again. 
.............................................................................
There is a labor crunch, though, in some parts of the country, more so in the West, as a considerable number of the construction workers who left during the recession still have yet to return.
The average age of a construction worker today is far higher than it was during the housing boom, Michelle Meyer, deputy head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research, said Tuesday on CNBC's "Squawk Box." Builders need to attract younger workers, but they seem, so far at least, unwilling or unable to pay them more.

Note added June 2,2016: Flipping homes are heating up also.***

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/24/low-supply-plagues-spring-housing-heres-where-it-is-worst.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/19/homebuilder-blues-dont-blame-labor-shortage.html
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/02/house-flipping-heats-up-creating-home-price-pressure-cooker.html
 

HOW THE CHARLOTTE, NC, TRANSGENDER ISSUE STARTED

As a national issue, it all started with Charlotte, North Carolina.  The transgender bathroom issue that is.  It is hard to believe that this issue has blown up to national proportions.  It is rather surprising in that several states (California, Vermont, Washington, Oregon, and Colorado) all have state laws protecting gender neutrality and have rating above 80 out of 100 in a report called Trans America (http://www.refinery29.com/2015/03/83531/transgender-rights-by-state#southcarolina).  Some cities with gender-neutral rules are Seattle, Philadelphia, New York City, and Austin, also a number of communities in South Carolina: Columbia, Charleston, Myrtle Beach.  Many of these have had protection laws or ordinances in place for a couple of decades or more. (This discussion supplements a previous one: http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/04/transsexuals-restrooms-and-locker-rooms.html)

Members of Charlotte's LGBT community said in a survey the changes are needed because they have been denied service, received poor service or experienced disparaging comments, according to supplemental materials attached to Monday's Council agenda.*
( http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/02/23/charlotte-city-council-approves-transgender-bathroom-ordinance-over-governors-protest.html)

For an almost blow by blow coverage of the Charlotte Ordinance, see: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article61786967.html
But here is the contrary opinion:
Earlier, Franklin Graham, head of the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association, urged Christians to come to Monday’s meeting and speak against the proposed ordinance.
He said the bathroom provision is “wicked and it’s filthy.” (bolding added)

The expanded ordinance would be the first of its kind in North Carolina. Three South Carolina cities have similar ordinances: Columbia, Charleston and Myrtle Beach.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article61786967.html#storylink=cpy

The supreme court has refused to take up the gender bathroom case.:
The justices declined to take up a student debt-collection case that asked the court to overrule a 1997 precedent, Auer v. Robbins, that said the judicial branch should defer to a federal agency's interpretation of its own regulations.
That case is the main one a 4th Circuit Court of Appeals panel relied on when it upheld the right of a transgender boy to use the boys' bathrooms at a Virginia high school. There is no federal regulation specifically on the point, but the Education Department has issued guidance indicating that such treatment is required by the sex-discrimination prohibition in Title IX on schools receiving federal funds.
The case turned down Monday was United Student Aid Funds v. Bryana Bible.
 (http://www.politico.com/blogs/under-the-radar/2016/05/supreme-court-transgender-bathrooms-223213)

A panel of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond ruled [on April 19,2016] Tuesday that public schools must allow transgender students to use the bathrooms that match their gender identity, the first such decision of its kind.
The ruling is a victory for a Virginia high school student, Gavin Grimm, who was born female but identifies as male, has undergone hormone therapy, and has legally changed his name. 
..............................................................................

The decision is binding on the five states of the Fourth Circuit -- Maryland, North and South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia. The court based its decision on a regulation issued by the Department of Education a year ago, interpreting the requirements of a federal law known as Title IX, which prohibits schools that receive federal funds from engaging in sex discrimination.
"A school generally must treat transgender students consistent with their gender identity," the federal regulation said. The appeals court ruled Tuesday that the rule is a reasonable interpretation of Title IX. (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/appeals-court-rules-transgender-bathroom-rules-n558496)

A very interesting history about segregated bathrooms is by Bobby Walker  in The Herald (April 7, 2016):
Before the 1887 there were no gender different restrooms. "The first sex-segregated toilets were assembled in a Parisian restaurant for a ball held in 1739.[8] Preceding this, public restrooms were unmarked or marked for men only.[1] The need to establish sex-segregated bathrooms in the United States arose from a lack of women's restrooms in workplaces, i.e. toilets were for men's use only and so there was a need to create some for women. In 1887 Massachusetts became the first state in the United States to pass legislation requiring that any workplace with female employees to have a female specific restroom. In the 1920s most states had passed laws regarding sex-segregated bathrooms.[1]" Thus Gendered restroom was not for Protection, moral or religious reasons, it so women had restooms. So saying gender neutral restrooms has No "Christian" or any other religions basis!!!!
Do they even know what a transgender person looks like? Do they want a big breasted dress wearing women in mens room explaing why there is a women in there to their sons? Or muscled, bearded tank topped man in womens room and explaining that to daughter?[Note this is a quote so misspellings are as in the original] http://www.heraldonline.com/news/state/south-carolina/article70347177.html

HILLARY CLINTON AND THE COMPETITION

Remember month's ago when it was feared that Hillary Clinton would not be tested in the Democratic nomination process?  Now the worry is that the party cannot be brought back together.

In Kentucky, Clinton took the cities and Sanders took the rural areas, especially the coal country.  I don't know why the coal country favored Sanders over Clinton as Sanders is as much against coal as Clinton, maybe even more so.

Hillary's two opponents - Trump and Sanders - surprisingly share a number of viewpoints such as:*
Both being against foreign trade such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal;**
Both opposed the Iraq War;
Both flip-flopped on gun control;
Both are against big money in politics (though Trump's claims of  self -funding are false);
Both want to get rid of Obamacare (ACA) and replace it with a single-payer plan;
Both want to increase taxes on some or all of the wealthy (Trump notes " carried interest" of Hedge  funds);
Both support maintaining or expanding the current levels of Social Security benefits;
Both are concerned about the effect of illegal immigration on American jobs.
Both Trump's and Sander's claim the system is rigged and their followers have gotten violent or said violent things.

But of course there are differences also.  I'm not sure how serious Trump is to deporting all the illegals, but I think he is serious about building the wall on our Southern border. with Mexico.  I say this because Trump likes to build things.  Just think, "The Great Wall of Trump" to compete with The Great Wall of China.

* http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/01/what-bernie-sanders-and-donald-trump-have-in-common/422907/
** Though Hillary recently has come out against TPP, I suspect that she will flip back when (if?) she becomes president.

RETAIL AND FOOD SALES

Kohl's and Nordstrom reported a surprise fall in quarterly comparable sales on Thursday, highlighting the malaise in the department store sector as consumers pull back spending on apparel.
Kohl's shares closed at their lowest in seven years, while Nordstrom tumbled 17 percent in extended trading on Thursday.*  Kohls (KSS) is down 52.8% from its 52-week high as of this morning (05-13-2016).

But retail and food sales in general (including cars, travel, and electronics) are doing pretty well (See figure that is interactive in the original reference.) :**

(Click on figure to enlarge)

Similar to Macy's, weak traffic in its stores — particularly during the unseasonably cool months of March and April — pressured Kohl's top-line. However, management was quick to admit that while sales of seasonal items such as shorts were a headwind, other issues were more company-specific.
Those include what it considers to be too much emphasis on digital marketing, and not enough on traditional mediums such as print.***

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/13/kohls-nordstrom-results-deepen-retail-jitters.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/13/us-retail-sales-rose-13-percent-in-april-vs-08-increase-expected.htm
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/12/retail-recession-why-kohls-miss-was-so-huge.html

DONALD TRUMP - DEAL MAKER

So Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee.  I guess I am going to have to comment on him some more.  The Republican Great Unwashed* seem to have won, but have they?  On at least two occasions, Trump has said that American wages are too high.  Is saying that illegal immigrants should be deported, a wall built  on our Southern border with Mexico and a temporary ban on Muslims entering America good enough "pay.?"

As Bill Clinton once noted, "Democrats like to fall in love; Republicans like to fall in line."  So now we are seeing Republicans falling in line, even other failed nominees who said such awful (if true) things about him.

Donald Trump stated on This Week With George Stephanopolis that the tax plan he has presented is a starting point.  He said that the final plan will be arrived at through negotiations.  This is what you might expect from a Deal Maker.  In others words, he is a compromiser.   So in the future as he seems to change positions, what he actually is doing is trying to arrive at a deal.  It may feel like a random walk, but what he is trying to do is arrive at a deal.  This is something to consider as the election process continues its slow process.

He had mentioned on Sunday that taxes for the wealthy might go up a bit.  He has now clarified this in that he meant up from what is stated in his tax plan, not from what the taxes are now.  In other words, he thinks that taxes on the wealthy won't be cut as much as in his plan.

And regarding his interchange with Paul Ryan, Speaker of The House, in what way is Trump not conservative?  I might even side with Trump if the problem is to use religion as an excuse to discriminate against someone.  Trump may be against this, but I'm not sure.  But what is Trump saying on policies that "conservatives" don't like?  He says he will get rid of Obamacare,** lower taxes on the wealthy, reduce the national debt.  Aren't all these "conservative" policies?  Perhaps Trump saying he is against abortion except in cases of rape, incest, and preserve the life of the mother isn't strong enough?.   Of course, one thing the establishment of the Republican Party would like is for Trump to use less intemperate language.  It is all right to think these things and discuss them in private, but they should not be said out loud.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/01/revolt-of-republican-great-unwashed.html
** Republicans, however, have trouble replacing Obamacare with something else because Obamacare IS the "conservative" health plan.  It is run by private businesses (insurance companies) and supposedly invokes competition; however, in North Carolina where I live, there is only one health care plan in Obamacare so there is no competition.

ADP JOBS AND JOBLESS CLAIMS FOR APRIL 2016

I usually don't pay much attention to the ADP employment numbers and wait a few days for the Federal employment numbers but an interesting graph was presented on CNBC regarding ADP numbers (see below).*

Overall, the ISM nonmanufacturing reading grew to 55.7 from 54.5. The ISM manufacturing index, which was released Monday, declined a full point to 50.8, with the employment component gaining 1.1 points to 49.2, which is still in contraction.**
..................................................................................
Respondents to the nonmanufacturing survey were generally optimistic about business conditions, with one construction leader noting a "severe nonskilled labor shortage" that is "hurting the construction industry."**

(click on figure to enlarge)

Jobless claims moved up last week but were still well below 300.000.  Applications for jobless benefits have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 55 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.
The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, nudged up 250 to 259,750 last week.***
............................................................................
The claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 39,000 to 2.18 million in the week ended March 12.***

* http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/private-sector-payrolls-april-2016.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/05/goldman-sachs-thinks-the-street-is-wrong-about-april-jobs.html
*** http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/24/us-weekly-jobless-claims-mar-19-2016.html