REAL STATUS OF OBAMACARE

Contrary is popular Republican claims, the ACA {Obamacare} isn't about to die according to an CNBC report (quotes in italics, you are urged to read the full articles cited):

But Obamacare isn't in a "death spiral," and although Trump can take steps to weaken it, he'll be unable to destroy it the way he and other Republicans would like.

The article mentions three specific problems, however:

High Premiums
Health insurance premiums saw a huge spike in 2016, rising an average of 22 percent. Were these sky-high price increases a regular occurrence or a one-time course correction? Trump hopes it's the former, and that rising premiums will turn people against Obamacare.*

"Empty Shelf Counties"

The other big headline from open enrollment was the lack of insurer choices in some counties. Unlike with high premium increases, this doesn't seem to be a one off. One-third of counties have only one insurer offering individual & family plans, and 16 counties in Tennessee have no insurers at all thanks to Humana exiting the market.*

Low Millennial Enrollment

Insurance works by pooling risk, and sharing the costs to cover that risk. Young people are less likely to use their health insurance, but they're still paying for it, helping to spread out the costs. Having more people enrolled helps stabilize a carrier's risk pool and lower the overall premiums.*

It is my impression that states such as California and Washington that set up their own system that the ACA is working well with lots of health care insurers to choose from.  It is in the states that opposed participation in the ACA where the Federal government set up plans that are the problem.

Kentucky
Kentucky, which has the unhealthiest county in America, that set up its own exchange, may be having trouble as the current Republican governor is trying to repeal it (see figure), however, problems exists largely because of poverty (quotes in italics):**

From 2014 to 2015, 85% of the increase in premature deaths was attributed to a rapid increase in deaths among people aged 15 to 44. The report notes that many issues contributed to the increase, but the drug overdose epidemic is a "clear driver of this trend" among those 25- to 44-year-old.**

Of the 30 factors RWJF [Robert Wood Johnson Foundation] considered when ranking counties — including housing and education — Breathitt County in eastern Kentucky was ranked dead last in health outcomes and Clay County was last in health factors. **
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"The eastern Kentucky counties have a lot of problems that they have to overcome, starting with high poverty levels," says Ben Chandler, CEO of the Foundation for a Healthy Kentucky. "We've got a lot of work to do in the eastern part of the state."**

(click on figure to enlarge)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trying-to-kill-obamacare-now-will-haunt-trump-later-commentary.html
** http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/03/29/suburban-drug-overdoses-fuel-spike-premature-death-rate/99728380/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatoday-newstopstories

STATES STILL TRYING TO GET INTO ACA MEDICAID EXPANSION

State legislatures rush to get into ACA expanded Medicaid.

Louisiana succeeded, but the governor of Kansas is expected to veto Medicaid expansion passed by both houses and the margins in both houses are not enough to overcome the expected veto.*

Including Washington D.C., 32 states have signed up for the Medicaid expansion.  Other states interested are (See quotes in italics below):

In Maine, where Republican Gov. Paul LePage has vetoed Medicaid expansion efforts by the state legislature, voters are set to cast ballots next fall on a referendum that would authorize expansion.*

On Monday, Virginia's Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe proposed amending language in the state budget to authorize him to move toward Medicaid expansion, which has been opposed by the Republican-led General Assembly.*

Also Monday, Georgia's Republican Governor Nathan Deal said he is looking into making changes to the state's Medicaid program "as long as mandates under the basic Obamacare legislation remain in place."*

Below is a map of the U.S. showing which states have accepted the Medicaid expansion (orange) and which states have yet to accept the expansion.**

(Click on figure to enlarge.  On my screen enlarging is not much help.)

* http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/kansas-legislature-votes-to-expand-medicaid-other-states-eye-similar-moves.html
** http://familiesusa.org/product/50-state-look-medicaid-expansion

TRUMP'S BASE ESCAPES SILVER BULLET

Who would ever have thunk it.  Obamacare was saved by the hard right (Freedom Caucus) of the Republican Party, a group that probably doesn't like any type of healthcare.  By turning down the American Health Care Act (AHCA), the ACA  (Obamacare) lives!

Why was Trump's base saved?  It turns out that counties that favored Trump have a high percentage of people on Medicaid.  Medicaid was cut back to pre-Obama days and the savings would have been given to the wealthiest who now pay a surtax of 3.8 percent on capital gains:  Quotes follow:*

Among those hit the hardest under the current House bill are 60-year-olds with annual incomes of $30,000, particularly in rural areas where healthcare costs are higher and Obamacare subsidies are greater.
In nearly 1,500 counties nationwide, such a person stands to lose more than $6,000 a year in federal insurance subsidies. Ninety percent of those counties backed Trump, the analysis shows.

And 68 of the 70 counties where these consumers would suffer the largest losses supported Trump in November.*

(Click on figure to enlarge)

And the wealthiest would benefit the most from tax cuts:**

The single biggest tax cut included in the bill is the repeal of the 3.8 percent tax the Affordable Care Act applied to capital gains, dividend, and interest income for families with $250,000 or more in income ($125,000 for singles).

Repealing that tax is a change that, by definition, only helps the rich, or at least the affluent. If you’re part of a married couple and, like the vast majority of Americans, make less than $250,000 a year, or earn more than that but have little investment income, it doesn’t affect you at all.
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By contrast, members of the top 0.1 percent, who each on average make more than $3.75 million annually, would get an average tax cut of $165,090. 
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Then there’s the 0.9 percent Medicare surtax, a hike on wage income in excess of $250,000 a year ($200,000 for unmarried people). The Republican bill would repeal this surtax and, in so doing, give everyone in the bottom 90 percent an average tax cut of $0, per the Tax Policy Center.  The richest of the rich, the top 0.1 percent, would get an average cut of $30,520.**

* http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-obamacare-trump-supporters-20170312-story.html
** http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/7/14844362/ahca-ryancare-trumpcare-tax-cut-rich

MINIMUM GUARANTEED INCOME - II

What I call Minimum Guaranteed Income* is now more popularly called Universal Basic Income (UBI).  Such income will be used as a buffer for people that are made obsolete by automation in its various forms.  At any rate, some process must be developed to find a way to support hundreds of thousands of "workers" no longer needed in the workforce.  Finland is trying this out.

The idea is that people will get some sort of minimum income (maybe something like $2000/mo.)  where you have a modest home, TV, and food, and those who want a better life can seek it in the paid jobs on top of the MBI that are remaining.

How would you fund such a plan?  The idea occurs to me that some sort of property tax could be put on each automated machine.  This idea is not as outrageous as it sounds.  Right now you have to pay state and maybe local property tax on each automobile you have.  Perhaps you would tax things rather than people.

The latest article is from CNBC:**

Meanwhile, developments in robotics and artificial intelligence have grave implications for the labor force. A report issued this week from consulting firm PwC found that more than a third of U.S. jobs were at risk from automation, upping the ante for policy makers to cushion the blow to workers.

Advocates for UBI argue that a guaranteed paycheck could serve as a way to fight poverty and uncertainty in an evolving U.S. economy, and encourage workers to take more risks in the job market if they had some extra money as a cushion.

The idea has gained prominent backers such as TeslaTCEO Elon Musk, who recently told CNBC he supported UBI — joining a growing list of tech execs who've voiced support for the concept as a solution to unemployment that will be caused by future automation — the rise of the robots. Silicon Valley's Y Combinator President Sam Altman and eBay Founder Pierre Omidyar have also expressed support for a universal income.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/07/miimum-guaranteed-income.html
** http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/25/universal-basic-income-debate-sharpens.html

GROWING DIVIDEND PAYERS BETTER DURING RISING INTEREST RATES

It seems like we are in for a period of rising interest rates.  In this case, you might be interested in stocks that perform well during rising interest rates, e.g. stock with rising dividends (see figure).*  Perhaps it stands to reason because the rising dividends help counteract the rising interest rates.  Thus as interest rates rise, you get more money.

(click on figure to enlarge)

If you wish information on dividend growers and those you can DRIP you can see http://www.dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp. The table is updated monthly by dFish (Pen name).

You will find that a few companies have increased their dividend more than 60 yrs now (AWR-American States Water 62 yrs, DOV-Dover Corp. 61 yrs, GPC-Genuine Part 61 yrs, PH-Parker Hannifin 61 yrs, NWN-Northwest Natural Gas 60 yrs, EMR-Emerson 60 yrs, PG-Proctor & Gambel 60 yrs.  MMM-3M 59 yrs is knocking at the Sexy 60s door next year. There are quite a few stocks that have raised their dividend for more than 50 yrs.

You should not buy these stock blindly because there are those who have dropped from the list.  The first stock to hit the 60s number (DBD-Diebold-Nixdorf) promptly cut their dividend after 60 yrs.  As they say, do your own due diligence.

* https://www.clearbridge.com/perspectives/institutional/2016/dividend-strategy-rates.html

WILL STOCKS GO DOWN? WHY NOT UP?

This is kind of a hurried post and will become mute tomorrow, maybe, but if the AHCA fails in tonight's vote in the House, the thought by the "experts" is that the stock markets will go down, maybe even 5% (a thousand points on the DJIA).  I would think the stock markets should go up because the ACHA is an awful bill, but I bow to the forecasters.  Why down instead of up?  The following quote from an article in the CNBC may tell the reason:

First, though infrequently discussed in detail, the failure of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) to pass the house and/or Senate means there will be no reduction in the 3.8 percent capital gains tax surcharge on wealthy individuals.

It could be that the very wealthy paying the surcharge dominate the market.  There is no limit to greed.  They would rather not pay the tax than help provide the poor, sick, and aged with health care coverage.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/22/trumps-health-care-plan-failure-could-trigger-a-market-correction.html

SEE WHAT HE DOES

We are told not to listen to President Donald Trump but see his actions.  Well, his initial actions are pretty orthodox Republican. I can't think of any of his cabinet appointments that aren't orthodox Republican appointments.  A possible exception was the turncoat Rick Perry who formerly wanted to do away with the Energy Department until he found out what the Energy Department does.  This is kind of humorous until you think about actions Republicans like to take without knowing what they are doing.  Kind of sobering, yes?

Trump signed a bill to permit the deranged (mentally disturbed) to buy guns.  That is a positive?

President Trump visited the CIA.  I suppose it was to do some fence building.  The beginning of his talk did that (but I think he was laying it on a bit thick); however, about a third of the way through, Trump started a harangue against the news media saying they had falsified he views on the intelligence committees and on the CIA in particular.  I guess we are supposed to believe the CIA falsified Thump tweets and he never made them.

I suppose we also are to believe that Trump never compared the CIA to the Nazis (“I think it was disgraceful, disgraceful that the intelligence agencies allowed any information that turned out to be so false and fake out. I think it’s a disgrace, and I say that is something that Nazi Germany would have done and did do,” Mr. Trump said at a press conference Wednesday in New York City.) or that the CIA Director leaked untrue information *  President Trump tweeted ("much worse - just look at Syria (red line), Crimea, Ukraine and the build-up of Russian nukes. Not good! Was this the leaker of Fake News?")**.

Trump now has a problem with veracity and I developed a Scale of Lying*** called the Trump Scale.  But lying is a harsh term and efforts are made to avoid it e.g. not truthful.  Many decades ago, I developed a saying "I'm not accusing you of lying, I am just saying you are not telling the truth."

Kellyann Conway, Counselor to the President, has come up with the most imaginative alternative  expression for lying: "Alternative Facts."  I think that at least sometimes Trump actually believes his lies, but this does not mean they are true.  So when he says something like he has talked to a few intelligence officers (at the highest levels)  about water boarding, my first thought is. "I wonder if he has actually talked to a couple of intelligence officers."  Though water boarding may have worked initially, now everyone knows what is going on.  In fact U.S. troops are trained to resist it.****

Probably the worst of all his lies is his accusation that President Obama "wiretapped" him.  OK, I'll buy that he really meant "surveillance."  This serious lie is discussed more in other posts on this blog and I won't repeat things here.

It is hard to see how this ends well.

POSITIVES:  I think it was fair for President Trump to press Angel Merkel of Germany (who has become the leader of the Free World) to pay up to the 2% of their budget for NATO that they promised to do, but I think it wasn't right to snub her afterward in the Photo Opportunity where he refused to shake hands with her.  Germany is a wealthy country and I don't see why they cannot contribute their fair share.

There are some things I am in favor of in Trump's Executive orders.   I'm for the Keystone XL Pipeline for environmental purposes, but also it is the cheapest way to transport crude.  I consider myself an environmentalist and I believe all environmentalists understand that a pipeline is safer than transport by train or truck.  But what they want is to stop the extraction of the oil in the first place.

I feel I don't know enough about the Dakota pipeline to make a decision; however, my understanding is that it is all but finished.   If it is worry about the pipe breaking under the river, you could have a pipe inside a pipe for added safety and have it wired to detect any liquid leaking to the outer pipe, for example.  But I guess the pipe line is going to be finished shortly and that it is too late for the.

HOPES: I hope that Trump gets around to reinstate the Yucca Mtn. radioactive waste repository.  I was against it in the beginning and for granite storage; however, I came to understand the merits of Yucca Mtn..  You know where the water recharge area of the aquifer is and you know where it exits at Ash Meadow Springs where you could monitor the seepage.  Opponents say what if we have a retrograde society that doesn't know about radioactivity (say survivors of a nuclear war).  I guess I believe in that case, it doesn't matter.

I also would hope that President Trump gets around to approving oil exploration in the 1002 area of ANWR (Alaska Natural Wildlife Area).  You don't know whether there is oil there until you bring it in (http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2010/12/you-dont-know-until-you-bring-it-in.html).  The evaluators have already moved the best target area once, fortunately away from the calving area..  ANWR oil prospects are only in a very small part of the Refuge, but it does contain a lot of caribou.  Caribou have accommodated themselves very nicely in the adjacent area.

* http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/15/cia-director-john-brennan-blasts-trump-for-nazi-ge/
** https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/820789938887294977
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-scale-of-lying.html
**** http://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2016/may/24/todd-wilcox/waterboarding-works-us-senate-candidate-todd-wilco/