Wednesday, September 18, 2019

DRONES OF WAR - III

This is the third time I am writing on The Drones Of War.*  Previously, my posts appeared in May of 2014 and April of 2015 so it has been quite a while.  What prompts me to write again is the attack on the Saudi Arabian oil fields, supposedly by drones.  Who did it and where from is still in a state of confusion?   Original reports said the Houthi's militia of Yemen claimed the attack. "Official" U.S. reports by our President and Secretary of State suggest that the drones came from Iran or, at least that the drones were Iranian made.   Saudi government reports are less certain.  There is even a report that the attacks came from Iraq and also included cruise missiles:

But Iraqi observers say the attack on Abqaiq involved three drones and three cruise missiles.  The cruise missile is believed to be the Quds-1. A version of the Quds-1, using a small jet engine (model PBS TJ100 ) manufactured in the Czech Republic, is produced in Iran for the Houthis. Nothing specific is known of the range of the Quds-1 but experts say it is a version of Iran’s Soumar cruise missile.  With its 43 pound Czech turbine engine, the Quds-1 probably carries a smaller payload than the Soumar, which could have a Russian or Chinese engine. (The Soumar is said to resemble the Russian Kh55SM cruise missile.)**

As days go by, Iranian "fingerprints" are being found on drone fragments.

So far I can't find any deaths or injuries from this oil field drone attack

Dones are actually becoming rather widely a tool of war, usually in an attempt to kill someone or group.***  Most drone attacks are sparsely reported by the American press.  Israel, for example, had a recent drone attack on Beirut, Lebanon just last month (August 2019).****  While no one was killed by these drones, some were injured.

My previous discussions concern collateral damage by drones versus ground troops.  In a discussion on torture I write:
People speculate on how more modern parts of warlike drones - will be viewed in 10 years, largely because of collateral damage.  It is naive to think that using group troops instead of drones would result in no collateral damage or even less collateral damage.  Plus how many of our troops are you willing to sacrifice to get the target?  I  support drones, but not indiscriminately.  If in 10 years it is decided that they should be illegal, then so be it.

Well, five years later we have alleged drone attacks being used by many countries, including the recent attack, not of people but facilities, specifically oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.  It can be difficult to tell just who or where the attacks came from.

* http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-drones-of-war.html
http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2015/04/the-drones-of-war.html
** https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/09/article/saudi-oil-facility-attacks-may-have-come-from-iraq/
*** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drone_strike
**** https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/08/israel-strikes-palestinian-base-lebanon-reports-190826071121071.html

Monday, September 16, 2019

EFFECT OF CORPORATE TAX CODE REVISION ON EMPLOYMENT

The effect of the 2017 tax cut for the wealthy and corporations seems to have been a one month ("sugar high") event, a year after passage of the act
Identifying the impact of a particular policy change is difficult when so many things are happening at once. After years of steady increases, stock prices have been flat since the passage of the tax changes, while volatility has increased. Tariffs have increased costs and raised uncertainty. Wage growth has continued to accelerate, albeit from a low base.

Together, these forces could have persuaded executives to cut back on investment, MandA, and shareholder payouts. It is possible that the corporate tax changes helped offset all this, which would explain why nothing seems to have changed. It is also possible, however, that the tax changes were a pointless transfer that simply gave companies more earnings to retain rather than spend. 
https://www.barrons.com/articles/last-years-corporate-tax-overhaul-hasnt-made-much-of-a-difference-1544226832

Also after the tax code revision of 2017, there is little dramatic change to see in the monthly employment figures; however, on average, may be even declining (see figure)

(click on figure to enlarge)
https://www.statista.com/chart/14962/seasonally-adjusted-non-farm-job-creation-in-the-us/

But if we try to separate the forest from the trees, we see that unemployment figures that declined during the Obama administration continue to decline in the Trump Administration (see figure).

(click on figure to enlarge)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/10/30/two-charts-show-trumps-job-gains-are-just-a-continuation-from-obamas-presidency/#7583d4ad1af3
The decline in unemployment of blacks is similar but with the most recent figures at 6% whereas it is slightly above 3% for Whites, well under 3% for Asians and about 4% for Hispanics:
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpsee_e16.htm

Looking back further, average monthly jobs growth during the Obama administration were much better than George W. Bush (Bush-43) and more than double the numbers for George H.W. Bush (Bush-41).  The record goes to Bill Clinton with Ronald Reagon in second place.  Whether the Donald Trump administration can beat the Obama administration is doubtful.  For one thing, we are told that we are at full employment.  If this is true, then the expansion of the labor force will be difficult.


(click on figure to enlarge)
https://images.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=monthly+job+growth+chart&fr=yhs-itm-001&hspart=itm&hsimp=yhs-001&imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.msnbc.com%2Fsites%2Fmsnbc%2Ffiles%2Fstyles%2Fembedded_image%2Fpublic%2F12.5.14.2.jpg%3Fitok%3DPdfGD40W#id=3&iurl=https%3A%2F%2Fkpbs.media.clients.ellingtoncms.com%2Fassets%2Fimg%2F2017%2F01%2F06%2Faverage-monthly-job-growth-by-president_chartbuilder_custom-579c306428b5841980615f54c79286457c6c2377_t614.png%3Fa3ca5463f16dc11451266bb717d38a6025dcea0e&action=click  Note: This exceedingly long URL does work and shows many graphs.

The hourly wage increases are misleading because one just feels that when we are told that hourly wages increased by 3.1%, there is a tendency to feel that everyone'e wages increased by 3.1%.  Of course this is not true.  Consider Silicon Valley:
Only wages at the very highest levels increased, after adjusting for inflation, over the last 20 years. Between 1997 and 2017, hourly wages for the top 10 percent increased by 0.7 percent. The most significant decline was for those at the middle income level.  Those in the 50th percentile have seen wages decline by 14.2 percent over the same 20-year period, while those in the 60th percentile have seen a 13.2 percent decline.
........................................................
More than a third of the workforce, or 57.3 million Americans, are now freelancing, according to a 2017 report by Upwork. In San Mateo and Santa Clara counties alone, there are an estimated 39,000 workers who are contracted to tech companies, according to one estimate by University of California Santa Cruz researchers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/03/in-silicon-valley-wages-are-down-for-everyone-but-the-top-10-percent.html

Large companies are even laying off workers.  For example, Verizon has announced a program where 10,400 employees will be let go.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/verizon-says-10400-employees-have-been-accepted-as-a-part-of-a-voluntary-program-to-leave-the-business.html

For more companies cutting jobs after passage of the 2017 tax cut, see: https://www.cheatsheet.com/money-career/these-companies-started-firing-employees-right-after-getting-tax-cuts-from-trump.html/

At the same time, small business are having difficulty finding employees.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/a-tight-labor-market-is-forcing-small-business-to-juice-job-offers.html


Friday, September 13, 2019

SWELL COUNTRY (Excerpt)

It happened while I was in the San Rafael Swell in central Utah during the great uranium boom of the 1950s.  The period was one of high romance as it seemed that nearly everyone had a Geiger counter and spent weekends hunting "yellow ore".  We did it for a living.  The San Raphael Swell was the desert; yet, it was different from what one might imagine a desert to be.  There was no endless vista of rolling sand dunes, but cliffs of yellow sandstone rising hundreds of feet that circled and enclosed a central area of red rocky siltstone.  This area was dissected by the Muddy River and its tributary gullies.  This isolated central area was fittingly called Sinbad, after the sailor and his hideaway.
The first surprise to me was clouds.  Actually, there were lots of them.  Mornings were clear, but you could see the clouds forming to the south, and, if you were high enough on the cliffs, you could see them to the west over the Wasatch High Plateau.  By afternoon, they were over Sinbad.  There is an old saying in this country that it never rains in Sinbad.  The statement is not strictly true, for, on two occasions, I experienced what was called a Mormon thundershower (12 drops per square foot).  Perhaps this was an unusually wet season.
A second surprise was the spectacular number of flowers.  I am sure that areas such as Sinbad have the highest flower density that I have ever seen.  Following the flowers were hummingbirds.  Over that one period of three months, I saw more hummingbirds than I have seen previously or since.  As many as a dozen in one day.
The third surprise was sunsets.  Every night was christened with a fabulous sunset.  I suppose that in a desert this should come as no surprise because there is so much dust about; yet, the extreme of their beauty made it so.  The colors would rise through a rose color to vivid red.  Then, in the waning stages, overtones of blue would increase until finally there was darkness.
Our camp was above 6000 feet in elevation so that it really did not get too hot.  We were living in house trailers.  One could hardly say that we were roughing it what with gas stoves and refrigerators, a prefabricated office, a washing machine, an electricity generator, and a hot water heater for washing and showers.  Most of the time, however, we would leave water in sealed five-gallon cans out in the sun to warm for use as shower water.  It could get hot enough to burn you, so some cool water had to be added.  Our water supply was a 300-gallon water trailer, however, that did not allow nine people too much cleanliness.
The most interesting feature of the camp was the pavilion.  The pavilion consisted of a huge tarpaulin supported by two by fours which shaded an area for camp chairs and a table.  The chairs were of the large canvas bucket type and were very comfortable.  It was a nice place to take a can of beer on Sunday after the weekly shower.  A nice place to sit and read or just stare into the distance.  Reading matter is precious in the desert and none is ever thrown away.  Ours was kept in a big box in the pavilion.
It was on such a Sunday that my beer and I were reading one of the lesser-known works by Hemingway called The Green Hills Of Africa.  In this story, Hemingway describes various scenes and events on one of his hunting trips.  Once I looked up.  It may have been something about the pale blue sky and the big puffy white clouds that I saw, or the low rolling hills covered with piƱon and juniper and cactus with the cliffs of sandstone looming in the background.  It may have been something about the pavilion or the book or the beer drunk in the heat of the day.  It may have been the sun.  It may have been all of these things which made me give a start.  For a split second I trembled because I could not figure out how I had gotten to Africa.

1955

Thursday, September 12, 2019

MASS MURDERES BY AR15

Stopping murdering is not the same as daily murders by gun.  To stop mass murders, you will have to eliminate automatic weapons.  There will still be mass murders, but the average number per incident will drop.  Below is a list of mass murders done by the semi-automatic weapon AR15 compiled by Michael Skolnik:


Monday, September 9, 2019

DESTRUCTION OF ART

Political correctness is now coming to destroy art portraying good and bad things about the history of our country.

... seven members of the Board of Education in San Francisco ...  just voted unanimously to destroy [13] important 80-year-old wall murals in a public high school because they show George Washington, a dead Indian, and slaves. The murals, some said, glorify racism, genocide, Manifest Destiny, colonization, and white supremacy.*
.......................................................................
Victor Arnautoff (1896–1979) painted the 13 panel murals — covering 1,600 square feet — in 1936 for the just-built George Washington High School. They depict the life of Washington. They’re well done. Arnautoff was one of the best muralists employed by the Works Progress Administration.* 
........................................................................
Arnautoff presented to young minds the nuances and contradictions, the good parts and bad parts, of America’s founding history. Some of the board members conceded this but insisted that exposing students to nuances and contradictions might scare them or, worse, hurt their feelings. Overwhelmingly, students don’t want the murals destroyed. The school’s alumni association wants them to remain, too. 

There is hope that the murals won't be painted over but covered by some panels.
While several Board members expressed a desire to paint over the murals, discussion made it clear that the quickest path to removing the offensive artwork from public view was to install panels to cover them up. So while the Board did ultimately vote, unanimously, to paint over the murals, they will most likely cover up the murals initially in the interest of an expedient solution to removing them from public view.**

Once the panels are up, there is hope, I think, that the murals will be preserved.  I also hope the panels are removable so that they may be displayed on some special occasions, perhaps in the summer while there are no classes.

* https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/san-francisco-board-of-education-george-washington-murals/
** https://richmondsfblog.com/2019/06/26/board-of-education-votes-to-cover-up-george-washington-high-school-wpa-murals/




Sunday, September 8, 2019

MY CHOICES FOR DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEES

Geriatric Democratic candidates for President:
Bernie Sanders 78 in September (b September 8, 1941)
Joe Biden         77 in November (b November 20, 1942)
John Kerry       76 in December ((b December 11, 1943) - withdrew
Donald Trump 73 in June (b June 14, 1946)
Eliz. Warren    70 in June (b June 22, 1949)
Tom Steyer      62 in June (b. June 27, 1957)

Substitute for Hickenlooper who has withdrawn: Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana, 53 (b April 11, 1966) who was re-elected to the governorship with 50.2% of the vote when Donald Trump took the state with 56.2% of the vote.  No other Democratic governor accomplished such a feat.

Impressive was Steve Bullock's defeat of Citizens Untied before the Montana Supreme Court as Montana Attorney General; however, the victory was reversed by the U.S. Supreme Court in one of the worst decisions ever made.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bullock_(American_politician)

So my choices are:
(1) Beto O'rourke (age 46)
(2) Amy Klobuchar (age 59)
(3) Steve Bullock (age 53)

I am investigating Rep. Tim Ryan (OH), 46 (b July 16, 1973) as a possible candidate for President because he seems to be in favor of keeping the ACA and expanding it.  But he thinks that Medicare for all is a dream goal and he is a co-sponsor.

Yes, I realize that all my candidates are having trouble getting traction and are low in the polls.
....................................................................

I am adding some comments on Amy Klobuchar who has been av very productive Senator in the do-nothing Senate:
According to GovTrack, Klobuchar passed more legislation than any other senator by the end of the 114th Congress in late 2016.[28] According to Congress.gov, as of December 16, 2018, she had sponsored or co-sponsored 111 pieces of legislation that became law.[56] During the 115th Congress she voted in line with Trump's position on legislation 31.1% of the time.[57]
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Klobuchar)

As to Beto O'Rourke, since the El Paso shooting, he has re-focussed his approach to running against Trump and is not following the early primary states.  While his new approach may bear some fruit, I'm not sure it will get him the nomination.
(https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/us/politics/beto-orourke-2020-trump.html)

I am investigating Rep. Tim Ryan (OH), 46 (b July 16, 1973) as a possible candidate. for President because he seems to be in favor of keeping the ACA and expanding it.  But he thinks that Medicare for all is a dream goal and he is a co-sponsor.

Yes, I realize that all my candidates are having trouble getting traction and are low in the polls.

Saturday, September 7, 2019

ALABAMIANS: IT IS ALL RIGHT TO COME OUT OR GO HOME NOW

President Trump our resident climate-change expert said that Hurricane Dorian was going to hit Alabama.  Of course, the NOAA service in Alabama (deep state) said forget it, Dorian is too far East.  But who are we to believe: our fake news government or our President who is always right?

Naturally, many of we Alabamans chose the President so we boarded up our homes and some vacated to northeastern Florida for safety.  In spite of the fact that the NOAA political appointees* backed our President rather than its NOAA  experts, the Hurricane didn't do any damage in Alabama after all.  No doubt just a lucky call by NOAA scientists who don't know anything.

Sorry that those of you that migrated to northeastern Florida, like Jacksonville,** to avoid the hurricane got all wet.  So it goes.  Must have been a separate storm as Dorian was down in southern Alabama.

Oh, and those of you who canceled vacation trips to southern Alabama can reschedule now, if it is not too late.

* I'm not surprised at the Lilly Livered political appointees at NOAA for not backing up their scientists.  I grew to hate political appointees in my 34 yr career with the Federal government - either party.  Few if any know anything about the job they are appointed to and much of what they think they know is wrong.  Most just want to get the job on their resumes and leave in six months or so, about when they are finding out what their job is to do.  That doesn't mean they don't try is mess things up while they are there, however.

There are some appointment mistakes made, for sure, and you do get a few competent people into jobs with the government and some others who at least mean well. ***  These people are rarely appreciated by the administration, however.  One good example to Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve who is trying to do a good job and is continuously lambasted by the administration for doing this.  A couple more are Gina Haspel of the CIA and Christopher Wray of the FBI.  A pleasant surprise to me was Former Republican Sen. Dan Coats who seemed to try very hard to do a good job.

* https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/politics/noaa-tweet-nws-trump-alabama/index.html
** https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/videos-jacksonville-area-impacts-of-hurricane-dorian/98241800
*** http://stopcontinentaldrift.blogspot.com/2019/07/a-few-good-men-and-women.html